Article(id=1282037446724522938, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282037390130790473, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1739, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1749830400000, receivedDateStr=2025-06-14, revisedDate=1757260800000, revisedDateStr=2025-09-08, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783591146402, onlineDateStr=2026-07-09, pubDate=1766851200000, pubDateStr=2025-12-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783591146402, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783591146402, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783591146402, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1282037390130790473, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='12', pageStart='1', pageEnd='259', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1766851200000', pubDateStr='2025-12-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783591132910, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783593783109, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282048505929777979, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282037390130790473, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282048505929777980, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282037390130790473, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=221, endPage=229, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1282037446938432443, articleId=1282037446724522938, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Scenario deduction of sudden mountain rainstorm disaster considering psychological factors of emergency subjects, columnId=1149735802789348081, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Technology and engineering of disaster prevention and mitigation, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to effectively respond to sudden mountain rainstorm disaster and explore the impact of emergency subjects' psychology on disaster evolution, a method combining game theory and BN was used to simulate the disaster's progression. First, historical disaster cases were analyzed, and consultations with relevant experts were conducted to identify four key scenario elements: emergency scenarios, disaster-forming environment, emergency measures, and human psychology. The Jaccard index was then employed to determine the relationships between these scenarios, while game theory methods were applied to optimize the BN node probabilities, which were initially estimated through case analysis statistics and triangular fuzzy number methods. This led to the construction of a BN-based disaster simulation model that incorporated the psychological factors of emergency subjects in the context of sudden mountain rainstorm disaster. Finally, the model was applied to analyze the "8·21" mountain flood and debris flow disaster in Jinyang, Sichuan, and comparative experiments were carried out. The results demonstrate that the disaster reasoning model is feasible and superior, and the neglect of psychological factors leads to an underestimation of disaster risks. Therefore, emergency management agencies should consider the influence of human psychology on early warnings, evacuation, and resource allocation when designing emergency strategies, in order to improve the effectiveness and adaptability of their measures.

, authors=Danhui FANG¹, Niping ZENG¹, Peipei WANG^{**, 2}, authorsList=Danhui FANG, Niping ZENG, Peipei WANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Peipei WANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1282037448809092028, articleId=1282037446724522938, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=考虑应急主体心理的山区突发暴雨灾害情景推演, columnId=1149735802885817075, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=防灾减灾技术与工程, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为有效应对山区突发暴雨灾害，探究应急主体心理对灾害演化的影响，利用博弈论和贝叶斯网络（BN）相结合的方法，推演山区突发暴雨灾害演化路径。首先，分析历史灾害数据，并咨询相关专家，确定应急情景、孕灾环境、应急措施和人的心理这4类情景要素；然后，使用Jaccard指数确定情景间的关系，运用博弈论方法优化由案例分析统计法和三角模糊数法确定的BN节点概率，构建一个考虑应急主体心理的山区突发暴雨灾害BN情景推演模型；最后，将其应用于四川金阳“8·21”山洪泥石流灾害开展对比试验。结果表明：该模型具有可行性和优越性，且忽略心理因素会导致灾害风险被低估。因此，应急管理部门在制定应急策略时，应重视人的心理对预警、疏散和资源分配的影响，以增强措施的有效性和适应性。

, authors=方丹辉副教授¹, 曾倪萍¹, 王佩佩讲师^{**, 2}, authorsList=方丹辉副教授, 曾倪萍, 王佩佩讲师, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=王佩佩讲师, authorNote=, correspAuthorsNote=, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=7RElXNmiTSrcI3hwMCeqIQ==, magXml=zYA90FErh0iD2DpGgilswQ==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=0pSociJ1qe2t+pqNfmXJbg==, pdfFileSize=6886929, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=6peztJYm+Han1RtkcOx0lQ==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1282037449677312964, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1282037446724522938, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=2871926@qq.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1282037449840890822, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1282037446724522938, authorId=1282037449677312964, language=EN, stringName=Danhui FANG, firstName=Danhui, middleName=null, lastName=FANG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=¹, address=¹School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1282037449987691463, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1282037446724522938, authorId=1282037449677312964, language=CN, stringName=方丹辉副教授, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=¹, address=¹武汉理工大学 安全科学与应急管理学院，湖北 武汉 430070, bio={"content":"

方丹辉（1976—），女，湖北荆门人，博士，副教授，主要从事应急管理、情景推演、公共安全等方面的研究。E-mail: 2871926@qq.com。

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方丹辉（1976—），女，湖北荆门人，博士，副教授，主要从事应急管理、情景推演、公共安全等方面的研究。E-mail: 2871926@qq.com。

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