Article(id=1281685550381895810, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281685530169545672, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1196, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1739721600000, receivedDateStr=2025-02-17, revisedDate=1745078400000, revisedDateStr=2025-04-20, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783507247777, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1751040000000, pubDateStr=2025-06-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783507247777, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783507247777, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783507247777, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281685530169545672, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='6', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1751040000000', pubDateStr='2025-06-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783507242958, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783589309504, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282029742274622413, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281685530169545672, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282029742274622414, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281685530169545672, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=70, endPage=78, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281685550700662915, articleId=1281685550381895810, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Cause analysis of hazardous chemical tank area leakage accidents based on STAMP composite method, columnId=1149733269173878863, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety engineering technology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To address the challenges of high risk and difficulty in quantitative analyzing hazardous chemical storage tank area leakage accidents, a composite method based on STAMP was proposed to elucidate the accident mechanisms. It clarifies the logical relationships among causal factors and quantitatively evaluate the impacts of accident causation, thereby enabling nonlinear quantitative accident analysis. First, the STAMP-24Model was utilized to construct an accident analysis diagram for hazardous chemical storage tank leakage, identifying system components, hierarchical relationships, as well as analyzing accident causal factors and their logical connections. Subsequently, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method was applied to determine path relationships and hierarchical structures among causal factors. Node importance analysis based on degree and clustering coefficients, as well as BN node analysis, was conducted to assess the criticality of causal factors on system. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the method were verified through a case study. The results show that organizational management failure (e.g., failure to implement safety rules and regulations, lax implementation of engineering management regulations) is the core driver of accident risk evolution, with a total degree value of 53.3%, and a significant coupling effect with physical and personnel layer factors.

, authors=Jianmin FU, Zhengtan LIANG**, Junjie WANG, authorsList=Jianmin FU, Zhengtan LIANG, Junjie WANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Zhengtan LIANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281685552311275655, articleId=1281685550381895810, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=基于STAMP复合方法的危化品罐区泄漏事故致因分析, columnId=1149733269727526997, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全工程技术, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为解决危化品储罐区泄漏事故危险性大,事故风险难以有效量化评估的问题,提出一种基于系统理论事故模型和过程(STAMP)复合方法,解析危化品罐区泄漏事故的发生机制,理清事故因素间逻辑关系并定量表述事故致因影响,以定量分析非线性事故。首先,利用STAMP-“2-4”模型(24Model)建立危化品储罐区泄漏事故分析图,确定系统各组件及其层次关系,并分析事故致因及其逻辑关系;其次,采用解释结构模型(ISM)方法确定事故致因间的路径关系及层级结构,并通过度和聚类系数分析以及贝叶斯网络(BN)节点分析获得事故致因对系统的重要性;最后,通过事故案例验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:组织管理失效(如安全生产规章制度未落实、工程管理规定执行不严)是事故风险演化的核心驱动力,其总度值占比达53.3%,且与物理层、人员层因素存在显著耦合效应。

, authors=付建民副教授, 梁正弹**, 王俊杰, authorsList=付建民副教授, 梁正弹, 王俊杰, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=梁正弹, authorNote=

付建民(1977—),男,吉林靖宇人,博士,副教授,主要从事石油、化工过程风险辨识与评价技术、HAZOP与LOPA技术应用、油气安全技术、石油化工装置泄漏模拟与评价技术等方向的研究。E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=
** 梁正弹(2002—),女,海南琼海人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为安全工程信息化技术。E-mail:
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付建民(1977—),男,吉林靖宇人,博士,副教授,主要从事石油、化工过程风险辨识与评价技术、HAZOP与LOPA技术应用、油气安全技术、石油化工装置泄漏模拟与评价技术等方向的研究。E-mail:

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付建民(1977—),男,吉林靖宇人,博士,副教授,主要从事石油、化工过程风险辨识与评价技术、HAZOP与LOPA技术应用、油气安全技术、石油化工装置泄漏模拟与评价技术等方向的研究。E-mail:

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基于STAMP复合方法的危化品罐区泄漏事故致因分析
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付建民副教授 , 梁正弹 ** , 王俊杰
中国安全科学学报 | 安全工程技术 2025,35(6): 70-78
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中国安全科学学报 |安全工程技术 2025 , 35 (6) : 70 -78
基于STAMP复合方法的危化品罐区泄漏事故致因分析
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付建民副教授 , 梁正弹** , 王俊杰
作者信息
  • 中国石油大学(华东) 机电工程学院,山东 青岛 266580
通讯作者:
** 梁正弹(2002—),女,海南琼海人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为安全工程信息化技术。E-mail:
作者简介:

付建民(1977—),男,吉林靖宇人,博士,副教授,主要从事石油、化工过程风险辨识与评价技术、HAZOP与LOPA技术应用、油气安全技术、石油化工装置泄漏模拟与评价技术等方向的研究。E-mail:

Cause analysis of hazardous chemical tank area leakage accidents based on STAMP composite method
Jianmin FU , Zhengtan LIANG** , Junjie WANG
Affiliations
  • School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China
出版时间: 2025-06-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1196
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为解决危化品储罐区泄漏事故危险性大,事故风险难以有效量化评估的问题,提出一种基于系统理论事故模型和过程(STAMP)复合方法,解析危化品罐区泄漏事故的发生机制,理清事故因素间逻辑关系并定量表述事故致因影响,以定量分析非线性事故。首先,利用STAMP-“2-4”模型(24Model)建立危化品储罐区泄漏事故分析图,确定系统各组件及其层次关系,并分析事故致因及其逻辑关系;其次,采用解释结构模型(ISM)方法确定事故致因间的路径关系及层级结构,并通过度和聚类系数分析以及贝叶斯网络(BN)节点分析获得事故致因对系统的重要性;最后,通过事故案例验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:组织管理失效(如安全生产规章制度未落实、工程管理规定执行不严)是事故风险演化的核心驱动力,其总度值占比达53.3%,且与物理层、人员层因素存在显著耦合效应。

系统理论事故模型和过程(STAMP)  /  危化品罐区  /  泄漏事故  /  事故致因  /  贝叶斯网络(BN)  /  逻辑关系

To address the challenges of high risk and difficulty in quantitative analyzing hazardous chemical storage tank area leakage accidents, a composite method based on STAMP was proposed to elucidate the accident mechanisms. It clarifies the logical relationships among causal factors and quantitatively evaluate the impacts of accident causation, thereby enabling nonlinear quantitative accident analysis. First, the STAMP-24Model was utilized to construct an accident analysis diagram for hazardous chemical storage tank leakage, identifying system components, hierarchical relationships, as well as analyzing accident causal factors and their logical connections. Subsequently, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method was applied to determine path relationships and hierarchical structures among causal factors. Node importance analysis based on degree and clustering coefficients, as well as BN node analysis, was conducted to assess the criticality of causal factors on system. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the method were verified through a case study. The results show that organizational management failure (e.g., failure to implement safety rules and regulations, lax implementation of engineering management regulations) is the core driver of accident risk evolution, with a total degree value of 53.3%, and a significant coupling effect with physical and personnel layer factors.

system-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP)  /  hazardous chemical tank area  /  leakage accidents  /  accident causation  /  Bayesian network (BN)  /  logical relation
付建民副教授, 梁正弹, 王俊杰. 基于STAMP复合方法的危化品罐区泄漏事故致因分析. 中国安全科学学报, 2025 , 35 (6) : 70 -78 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1196
Jianmin FU, Zhengtan LIANG, Junjie WANG. Cause analysis of hazardous chemical tank area leakage accidents based on STAMP composite method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (6) : 70 -78 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1196

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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1196
  • 接收时间:2025-02-17
  • 首发时间:2026-07-08
  • 出版时间:2025-06-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-17
  • 修回日期:2025-04-20
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    中国石油大学(华东) 机电工程学院,山东 青岛 266580

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** 梁正弹(2002—),女,海南琼海人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为安全工程信息化技术。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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