Article(id=1322964687859613908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, issueId=1322964647376191536, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025192, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1745251200000, receivedDateStr=2025-04-22, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793348961080, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1769356800000, pubDateStr=2026-01-26, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793348961080, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793348961080, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793348961080, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322964647376191536, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, year='2026', volume='16', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='224', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1769356800000', pubDateStr='2026-01-26', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793348951428, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793349012150, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1322964902113063080, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, issueId=1322964647376191536, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1322964902113063081, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, issueId=1322964647376191536, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=23, endPage=33, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322964688241295573, articleId=1322964687859613908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, language=EN, title=Investigation on risk of induced earthquakes for CO2 geological storage in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea, columnId=1322941556788953582, journalTitle=Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, columnName=Specialist Forum, runingTitle=null, highlight=

In the context of the “dual carbon” goals, offshore CO2 geological storage offers significant advantages over onshore storage and represents a key development direction for future carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies. However, deep subsurface industrial activities such as CO2 geological storage carry the risk of inducing earthquakes. Although the East China Sea Shelf Basin is a suitable area for offshore CO2 storage in China, there is currently a lack of studies on the risk of induced earthquakes. An induced earthquake risk assessment method based on the Dieterich’s rate-and-state friction law was employed. Starting from fault stability analysis, the relative seismic activity rate on fault planes was correlated with Coulomb failure stress change. Both deterministic and probabilistic assessment approaches were used to investigate the induced earthquake risk associated with CO2 injection in X block of the Xihu Sag, East China Sea. The results showed that: (1) The target reservoir in the middle Yuquan Formation within X block exhibited an anticline structure. The twelve faults divided the storage trap into northern and southern sections. The in-situ stress regime was potential normal faulting, and all faults were initially stable. (2) When CO2 storage was conducted at a rate of 60×104 t/a over 10 years into the southern trap, the diffusion of pore fluid pressure had a minor impact on surrounding faults, with a relatively low risk of inducing high-magnitude earthquakes. The estimated maximum magnitude of induced earthquakes within the block was 1.8. (3) Increasing the CO2 injection rate would elevate the risk of induced earthquakes. While zonal injection could mitigate this risk, it may not be economically viable due to increased costs. The evaluation methods and findings presented in this study can serve as an assessment approach for induced earthquake risk in CO2 geological storage, providing theoretical support for the safety of CCUS projects.

, articleAbstract=null, authors=YONG ZHAO, QIN FENG, XIN SUN, QING WANG, authorsList=YONG ZHAO, QIN FENG, XIN SUN, QING WANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=XIN SUN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322964697493930220, articleId=1322964687859613908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, language=CN, title=东海西湖凹陷X区块CO2地质封存诱发地震危险性探讨, columnId=1322941557069971952, journalTitle=油气藏评价与开发, columnName=专家论坛, runingTitle=null, highlight=

在“双碳”目标背景下,海域CO2地质封存相较于陆上具有显著优势,是未来CO2捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)技术的重要发展方向。但CO2地质封存等深地工业活动存在诱发地震的风险,而东海陆架盆地作为中国海域CO2地质封存的适宜区域,目前缺乏诱发地震危险性评价研究。基于Dieterich速率状态摩擦定律的诱发地震评价方法,从断层稳定性分析入手,将断层面相对地震活动率与库仑破裂应力变化相关联,结合确定性与概率性评价方法,探讨东海西湖凹陷X区块CO2注入诱发地震的危险性。结果表明:①X区块玉泉组中部目标储层呈背斜形态,12条断层将封存圈闭分割为南北两部分,地应力类型为潜在正断型,所有断层初始状态稳定;②南部圈闭按60×10⁴ t/a的规模开展10 a的CO2封存时,孔隙流体压力扩散对周围断层影响较小,诱发高震级地震风险较低,区块诱发地震震级上限预估为1.8级;③CO2注入速率增大将增加诱发地震风险,分区注入可降低风险,但经济性较差。研究提出的评价方法及成果,可作为CO2地质封存诱发地震危险性的评价手段之一,为CCUS项目安全性提供理论支撑。

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赵勇(1966—),男,博士,教授级高工,从事油气田开发工作。地址:上海市浦东新区锦康路50弄2号,邮政编码:200127。E-mail:

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孙鑫(1985—),男,硕士,工程师,从事安全工程工作。地址:上海市浦东新区锦康路50弄2号,邮政编码:200127。E-mail:
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赵勇(1966—),男,博士,教授级高工,从事油气田开发工作。地址:上海市浦东新区锦康路50弄2号,邮政编码:200127。E-mail:

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赵勇(1966—),男,博士,教授级高工,从事油气田开发工作。地址:上海市浦东新区锦康路50弄2号,邮政编码:200127。E-mail:

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Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1322964698223739117, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322964698236322030, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, companyId=1322964698223739117, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Sinopec Shanghai Offshore Oil & Gas Company, Shanghai 200127, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322964698244710639, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, companyId=1322964698223739117, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=中国石化上海海洋油气分公司,上海   200127)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1322964712471789839, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Mechanism of earthquakes induced by fault failure due to fluid injection, figureFileSmall=94czYwADy/bkJWE4k98Aqw==, figureFileBig=OeaIuOqVC3SZf5QjgCWkjw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322964713289679120, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=CN, label=图1, caption=流体注入导致断层破坏诱发地震的机理

注:σN'为初始法向有效应力,单位MPa;Δp为孔隙流体压力增量,单位MPa;σN为初始法向应力,单位MPa;τF为切向应力,单位MPa。

, figureFileSmall=94czYwADy/bkJWE4k98Aqw==, figureFileBig=OeaIuOqVC3SZf5QjgCWkjw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322964714120151313, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Stratigraphic sequences of Quaternary and Neogene strata in Xihu Sag, East China Sea, figureFileSmall=NTg5DzOnqgknsEuGOsDLmw==, figureFileBig=A7ZQKiTK+kHb6etQiSBFSg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322964714522804499, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=CN, label=图 2, caption=东海西湖凹陷第四系与新近系地层层序, figureFileSmall=NTg5DzOnqgknsEuGOsDLmw==, figureFileBig=A7ZQKiTK+kHb6etQiSBFSg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322964714967400724, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=Geological structure of target reservoir in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea, figureFileSmall=PTT9EiCCn/e6MDl3RkzXsA==, figureFileBig=0gINUl8CuzX9uNzivCW3ew==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322964715399414037, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=CN, label=图 3, caption=东海西湖凹陷X区块目标储层地质构造, figureFileSmall=PTT9EiCCn/e6MDl3RkzXsA==, figureFileBig=0gINUl8CuzX9uNzivCW3ew==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322964715802067222, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Variation characteristics of geostress field with depth in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea, figureFileSmall=qrAr7HxfuWtVBnW202dIGw==, figureFileBig=e6ezrNo9REZ5Oo+HgC2BvQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322964716653510936, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=CN, label=图4, caption=东海西湖凹陷X区块地应力场随深度变化特征

注:z为深度,单位m。

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Sea, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
名称分段编号走向/(°)倾角/(°)长度/m
F1F1-1106811 818.2
F1-210281807.0
F1-310481516.4
F1-49881543.2
F1-510381349.3
F1-610481757.1
F2F2-111874600.1
F2-211874667.9
F2-310474795.7
F3F3-18481449.3
F3-28981469.8
F3-310181818.7
F3-411481488.6
F3-511881796.7
F4F4-14078608.0
F4-25278577.8
F4-36578474.8
F4-47678538.4
F4-58878545.7
F4-69978553.0
F4-710478766.3
F4-810578854.6
F4-99378826.6
F5F5-113485412.9
F5-211185503.8
F5-311185834.6
F9F9-196821 074.2
F9-295821 095.4
F10F10-111183616.4
F10-29983621.5
F11F11-19284674.6
F11-210084500.8
F11-310684834.7
F13F13-14085774.8
F13-24685872.8
F13-34185534.3
F23F23-14671713.3
F23-24871552.9
F23-35471679.5
F23-46171803.9
F23-558711 022.1
F29F29-14067807.0
F29-24567707.8
F29-35167872.8
F29-45267573.2
F29-56067733.3
F30F30-151681 007.7
F30-24568756.1
F30-34668632.8
F30-45768624.5
), ArticleFig(id=1322964722940772649, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322964687859613908, language=CN, label=表 1, caption=

东海西湖凹陷X区块主要断层属性

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名称分段编号走向/(°)倾角/(°)长度/m
F1F1-1106811 818.2
F1-210281807.0
F1-310481516.4
F1-49881543.2
F1-510381349.3
F1-610481757.1
F2F2-111874600.1
F2-211874667.9
F2-310474795.7
F3F3-18481449.3
F3-28981469.8
F3-310181818.7
F3-411481488.6
F3-511881796.7
F4F4-14078608.0
F4-25278577.8
F4-36578474.8
F4-47678538.4
F4-58878545.7
F4-69978553.0
F4-710478766.3
F4-810578854.6
F4-99378826.6
F5F5-113485412.9
F5-211185503.8
F5-311185834.6
F9F9-196821 074.2
F9-295821 095.4
F10F10-111183616.4
F10-29983621.5
F11F11-19284674.6
F11-210084500.8
F11-310684834.7
F13F13-14085774.8
F13-24685872.8
F13-34185534.3
F23F23-14671713.3
F23-24871552.9
F23-35471679.5
F23-46171803.9
F23-558711 022.1
F29F29-14067807.0
F29-24567707.8
F29-35167872.8
F29-45267573.2
F29-56067733.3
F30F30-151681 007.7
F30-24568756.1
F30-34668632.8
F30-45768624.5
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东海西湖凹陷X区块CO2地质封存诱发地震危险性探讨
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赵勇 , 冯勤 , 孙鑫 , 王庆
油气藏评价与开发 | 专家论坛 2026,16(1): 23-33
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油气藏评价与开发 |专家论坛 2026 , 16 (1) : 23 -33
东海西湖凹陷X区块CO2地质封存诱发地震危险性探讨
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赵勇 , 冯勤, 孙鑫, 王庆
作者信息
  • 中国石化上海海洋油气分公司,上海   200127
通讯作者:
孙鑫(1985—),男,硕士,工程师,从事安全工程工作。地址:上海市浦东新区锦康路50弄2号,邮政编码:200127。E-mail:
作者简介:

赵勇(1966—),男,博士,教授级高工,从事油气田开发工作。地址:上海市浦东新区锦康路50弄2号,邮政编码:200127。E-mail:

Investigation on risk of induced earthquakes for CO2 geological storage in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea
YONG ZHAO , QIN FENG, XIN SUN, QING WANG
Affiliations
  • Sinopec Shanghai Offshore Oil & Gas Company, Shanghai 200127, China
出版时间: 2026-01-26 doi: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025192
文章导航
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东海陆架盆地  /  西湖凹陷  /  CO2地质封存  /  流体注入诱发地震  /  断层稳定性
East China Sea Shelf Basin  /  Xihu Sag  /  CO2 geological storage  /  fluid injection-induced earthquake  /  fault stability
赵勇, 冯勤, 孙鑫, 王庆. 东海西湖凹陷X区块CO2地质封存诱发地震危险性探讨. 油气藏评价与开发, 2026 , 16 (1) : 23 -33 . DOI: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025192
YONG ZHAO, QIN FENG, XIN SUN, QING WANG. Investigation on risk of induced earthquakes for CO2 geological storage in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2026 , 16 (1) : 23 -33 . DOI: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025192
2020年9月22日,中国在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上承诺,力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和[1]。CO2捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)技术是实现“双碳”战略目标的重要手段[2-3]。根据全球碳捕集与封存研究院(Global CCS Institute)报告,截至2023年6月,全球共有392个处于不同阶段的CCUS项目,其中41个已投入运行[4-5]。这些CO2封存项目绝大多数集中在陆上,而海域CO2地质封存相较陆上具有以下优势:①封存潜力大,据中国地质调查局2023年公布数据,中国海域CO2地质封存潜力达2.58×1012 t[6];②海域盆地多为被动陆缘盆地,长期沉积过程形成深厚盖层[7-8],对CO2具有良好的阻隔作用,泄漏风险更低;③封存地点远离人口密集区,可避免对人类生活环境产生影响[9-10]。全球代表性大型海域CCUS项目包括挪威Sleipner项目[11-12]、Snøhvit项目[13]、澳大利亚Gorgon项目[14]、荷兰TNO K12-B项目[15]及日本Tomakomai项目[16]等。其中,Sleipner项目是目前海域CO2封存最成功的案例,自1996年起向海平面以下800~1 000 m的Utsira砂岩储层持续注入CO2,年封存量达90×104 t。2023年6月1日,中国首个百万吨级海域CO2封存示范工程——恩平15-1油田CO2封存示范项目在珠江口海域正式投用,标志着中国海域CCUS产业迈入新阶段[17]。
深井废水注入、地热开发、页岩气开采、CO2封存等人类工业活动,可能改变地层应力状态,导致断层失稳或岩石破裂,进而诱发地震[18-19]。其中较典型的案例为美国丹佛RMA废水注入项目[20]与韩国浦项EGS项目[21],二者均因诱发较强地震被迫中止。在CO2地质封存领域,Sleipner项目运行期间,其50 km范围内的地震台网记录到若干次2至3级地震,但因缺乏微地震监测定位数据,无法明确地震活动与CO2注入的关联性;阿尔及利亚In Salah CCS项目则通过微地震监测获取了大量微地震活动数据[22];美国伊利诺伊州Decatur项目开展了全面微地震监测,监测到大量震级介于-1.90~1.26的微地震事件[23]。CCUS项目诱发的地震可能破坏盖层与井筒完整性,进而增大CO2泄漏风险,因此,开展CO2地质封存诱发地震危险性研究十分必要[24-25]。
东海陆架盆地位于中国东海海域,面积达25×104 km2,为中国近海陆架规模最大的沉积盆地[26-28]。该盆地靠近CO2排放源集中的江浙沪地区[29],可缓解长三角地区陆上CO2封存适宜场地不足的问题[30]。赵勇等[31]针对东海陆架盆地咸水层CO2封存地质条件开展适宜性评价,计算得出该盆地D级咸水层CO2封存量为636.2×108 t,其中东部坳陷的西湖凹陷与基隆凹陷封存量最大,均超100×108 t。因此,从长期来看,在东海陆架盆地开展海域CO2地质封存具备较大潜力。目前已开展的东海陆架盆地CO2地质封存适宜性研究[31-34],已从区域地质背景角度对整个盆地地震活动性及断裂发育特征开展评价,但区块尺度地震危险性研究仍较为匮乏,尤其缺乏对CO2注入诱发地震的关注。
针对东海陆架盆地未来开展CCUS项目可能诱发地震的问题,以西湖凹陷X区块为研究对象,采用基于断层稳定性的分析方法,探讨该区块CO2注入诱发地震的危险性。首先对初始地应力背景下区块内主要断层的应力状态与稳定性开展评价;其次计算CO2长期注入条件下地层孔隙流体压力变化,进而获取各断层的库仑破裂应力(Coulomb Failure Stress,CFS)变化;再次分析各断层的相对地震活动率;最后对区块诱发地震震级开展预测与评价,并探讨不同注入方案对区块诱发地震活动的影响。
目前普遍认为,流体注入诱发地震主要与地层应力状态的改变及断层活化相关[35],具体力学机理可归纳为3类:孔隙流体压力扩散[36]、孔隙弹性效应扰动[37]及断层无震滑移[38]。其中,CO2注入诱发的地震多属于第1类[25],其主要过程如下:①CO2注入区地层孔隙流体压力升高。②孔隙流体压力向断层扩散并使断层处流体压力升高。③断层有效应力降低引发剪切强度下降,使断层应力达到Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则。④断层失稳发生剪切破坏,进而诱发地震活动。
如图1所示,断层面上的初始法向应力σN和切向应力τF分别为:
σN=n∙σ∙nτF=n∙τ∙n  
式中:σN为初始法向应力,单位MPa;τF为切向应力,单位MPa;n为断层面的法向向量;σ为地应力张量,单位MPa;τ=σ-tr(σ)I/3为地层的偏应力张量,单位MPa;I为单位张量,即I = diag(1,1,…,1)。则断层面的初始法向有效应力为:
σN'=σN-p0
式中:σN'为初始法向有效应力,单位MPa;p0为地层的初始孔隙流体压力,单位MPa。
流体注入后,随着地层中孔隙流体压力的扩散,断层面上孔隙流体压力增加了Δp,此时断层面上的法向有效应力为σN'-Δp。断层发生剪切破坏的条件为:断层面上的切向应力τF超过剪切强度τP,即:
τF≥τP=μσN'-Δp
式中:τP为剪切强度,单位MPa;Δp为孔隙流体压力增量,单位MPa;μ为断层的摩擦系数。
μ=tan φ
式中:φ为断层面内摩擦角,单位(°)。
断层失稳所需的孔隙流体压力增量为:
Δp=σN'-τPμ 
已有研究针对流体注入诱发地震,提出了多种震级预测评价方法。SHAPIRO等[39]最早基于孔隙压力松弛机制建立模型,解释观测到的频率-震级分布特征,并运用该模型对流体注入诱发地震的震级进行评估、预测;MCGARR[40]提出了诱发地震最大地震矩上限与注入流体净体积的线性关系;HAKIMHASHEMI等[41]提出一种基于Dieterich速率状态摩擦定律的诱发地震评价方法,通过将地层应力变化与相对地震活动率相关联,实现对诱发地震的概率地震危险性评估。该方法属于确定性-概率性耦合方法:一方面通过库仑破裂应力变化反映诱发地震力学机制,另一方面通过震级-频度关系反映地震事件统计规律。后续已在美国伊利诺伊盆地CCUS项目[42]和韩国浦项EGS项目[43]的诱发地震分析评价中应用,与工程现场实际地震监测结果吻合度较高。采用该方法对东海陆架盆地西湖凹陷X区块开展CCUS项目诱发地震危险性评价工作。
结合场地水文地质与构造条件建立地层地质模型后,可通过解析解或数值模拟方法计算得地层孔隙流体压力增量Δp,断层面上的库仑破裂应力变化可表示为[41]:
ΔCFS=μΔp
式中:ΔCFS为库仑破裂应力变化。
在诱发地震相对活动率分析中,根据Dieterich速率状态摩擦定律可得[44-45]:
dRdt=τ˙rAσN'1τ˙rdΔCFSdt-RR
式中:R为相对地震活动率,反映了流体注入后地震活动率相对于背景地震活动率的变化;t为时间,单位a;τ˙r为背景应力率,单位MPa/a;A为模型常数,按Marone模型通过岩石断层摩擦的室内实验测得为0.003[46];R为相对地震活动率,dRdt和dΔCFSdt分别表示相对地震活动率R和库仑破裂应力增量对时间的变化率。
据此,断层上相对地震活动率的时程R(t)可根据库仑破裂应力变化的时程ΔCFS(t)按式(7)通过隐式Euler法求得。
根据地震的频度-震级关系[47],流体注入后,在时间段[t1,t2]研究区块中震级超过M的地震事件,其发生次数可表示为[48]:
N≥M=r010-bM∫t1t2∫SFRtdSdt
式中:N为地震事件发生次数;M为地震震级;r0为背景地震活动率,单位次/a;b为震级关系的b值,r0和b一般通过区块内一段时间微地震监测的地震目录统计获得;t1和t2分别为研究目标时间段的起始和结束时刻,单位a;SF为所有断层按面积分片。时间段[t1,t2]研究区块中震级超过M的地震事件发生概率为:
P≥M=1-exp [-N≥M]
式中:P为震级超越概率。
据此,可绘制研究区块的震级超越概率曲线,进而完成对区块诱发地震危险性评价。
东海陆架盆地在大地构造上属于华南地块,地处中国东部大陆架东缘,为中新生代复合断陷盆地,东西宽约250~300 km,南北长约1 500 km,整体呈北北东向隆坳相间特征。中新世末,菲律宾海板块北向俯冲形成冲绳海槽盆地后,东海陆架盆地整体进入沉降阶段,断裂活动基本停止[49-50]。西湖凹陷位于东海陆架盆地东部的浙东坳陷,介于海礁隆起与钓鱼岛隆褶带之间,为新生代沉积凹陷,呈北北东向狭长带状,长约400 km,宽约100 km。断裂平面展布具有显著“东西分带、南北分块”特征,中新世中晚期,断裂发育受龙井运动挤压背景下刚性基底差异分布的控制,断裂活动多表现为花港组上段至中新统不同程度错断,活动断裂最浅上断界面位于花港组至柳浪组之间[51-52]。
东海区域地震活动性主要受菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块碰撞形成的琉球俯冲带控制:冲绳海槽盆地靠近琉球岛弧一侧发育深度100~200 km的中源地震带,为地震多发区,曾发生过多次7级以上地震。东海陆架盆地内部地震活动性则相对较弱,截至目前仅记录2次6.0至6.9级地震及数次5级左右地震[53,34]。
西湖凹陷第四系与新近系地层层序如图2所示。其中,新近系中新统包括柳浪组、玉泉组和龙井组,储水层发育于三角洲、分流河道及河流心滩、边滩沉积环境,隔水层发育于滨浅湖、半深湖及河道间沉积环境,构成砂岩与泥岩互层的完整储盖体系,具备良好的CO2地质封存条件。选取X区块玉泉组中部的砂岩含水层作为目标储层,该储层埋深介于2 100~3 800 m,厚度介于100~150 m,孔隙度为24.4%,渗透率为122.87×10-3μm2,地层咸水密度为1.013~1.018 g/cm3,矿化度约为20 g/L。
西湖凹陷X区块目标储层地质构造如图3所示,储层空间展布整体呈“中心高、四周低”的背斜形态,中心稍偏南位置为最高点,埋深约为2 100 m,其最北侧翼部向北西西方向倾斜,倾角约为26°,延伸至区块边缘最低点。储层内共发育12条断层,按走向大致分为北北东向和北西西向2类,与西湖凹陷整体断裂“东西分带、南北分块”的分布特征一致。其中F4断层比较特殊,走向从北西西向呈弧形扭转为北北东向。为便于后续断层稳定性及地震危险性分析,对12条断层进行简化分段,共得到50条分段断层,其走向、倾角及长度见表1。
采用测井曲线计算得到区块地应力场随深度的变化特征(图4)。由图4可见,深度超2 000 m的地层(含目标储层)满足σV>σH>σh,即垂直主应力大于最大水平主应力,表现为潜在正断型应力状态;在目标储层所在的2 300 m深度处,σV、σH与σh分别为47.68、44.57、41.44 MPa,应力差值较小。最大水平主应力方向约为北偏东57°,与北北东走向断层的垂向接近,也与区块整体背斜形态相吻合。研究区孔隙水压力梯度为10.2 kPa/m,与实测地层咸水密度相符,未发育明显承压含水层。
以西湖凹陷X区块前文所示地应力场特征为目标储层的初始应力条件,根据式(1)计算各分段断层面的法向有效应力σN'与切向应力τF,再通过Mohr-Coulomb准则分析各分段断层面的初始稳定性。由于目标储层岩石力学测试数据暂缺,无法直接确定断层强度参数,所以本研究参考其他断层稳定性及诱发地震相关研究[54-58],采用μ=0.6作为所有断层面的临界摩擦系数。
各分段断层面的初始有效应力状态如图5所示,各分段断层面的初始有效应力状态均远离Mohr-Coulomb破坏面。以剪切应力比τF/σN'衡量断层稳定性时,分段断层F5-3的剪切应力比最大,达0.168,但仍远小于临界摩擦系数0.6,这表明西湖凹陷X区块目标储层内的主要断层均处于非常稳定的状态,初始滑移失稳风险较低。
根据式(5)计算各分段断层失稳所需的孔隙流体压力增量Δp,并将计算结果绘制在断层平面分布图上(图6)。其中,失稳所需孔隙流体压力增量Δp较低的为几条北北东走向断层,包括F4-6至F4-8、F5-1至F5-5、F3-3至F3-5、F10-1至F10-2、F1-3至F1-6、F11-2至F11-3。但总体来看,所有断层失稳所需孔隙流体压力增量Δp均超过10 MPa。
采用咸水层CO2地质封存非等温多相流模拟器TOUGH2/ECO2N,开展CO2长期注入条件下储层孔隙流体压力变化计算。除3.2节所述各项水文地质参数外,储层砂岩密度根据垂直向地应力梯度估算为2.4 g/cm3,压缩系数取4.5×10-10 Pa-1,地温梯度取33.2 ℃/km[34],地热传导率取2.51 W/(m·K),比热容取920 J/(kg·K),残余水饱和度取15%,残余气饱和度取5%。
根据CO2地质封存中储层流体压力的解析解[59],离注入井越近的位置,孔隙流体压力增量越大,因此,注入井选址需尽量远离断层。由图3断层分布可知,背斜构造顶部埋深介于2 100~2 350 m的储层平缓段被大致分割为2个区域;南部为断层F1、F11、F29与F30包围的区域,北部为断层F2、F3、F4与F10包围的区域。选取南部区域作为CO2封存圈闭,选择远离断层的Inj-1(图3)作为注入点开展CO2封存,封存规模为60×10⁴ t/a(注入速率19.026 kg/s),注入时长10 a。
最终计算得到Inj-1注入点按60×10⁴ t/a封存规模注入CO2时,储层孔隙流体压力增量在1、3、10 a后的分布特征(图7)。由图7可见,在恒定注入速率条件下,随注入CO2总量增加,孔隙流体压力增量以注入点为中心呈近似圆形向四周扩散。当孔隙流体压力增量扩散至断层处时,断层面上的法向有效应力降低,此过程即2.1节所述第1类诱发地震机理。由图7还可知,在持续注入10 a后,孔隙流体压力增量超过0.5 MPa的区域直径约为270 m;孔隙流体压力增量超过0.2 MPa的区域直径约为730 m,且未扩散至四周的断层(F1、F11、F29、F30),即上述断层位置的孔隙流体压力增量不超过0.2 MPa。
基于3.4节计算得到的储层孔隙流体压力,根据式(4)求得1、3、10 a后各分段断层的库仑破裂应力变化,并将结果绘制于断层平面分布图中(图8)。地震静态应力触发机制相关研究指出,当断层的库仑破裂应力变化超过0.01 MPa时,即存在触发地震的风险[60-61]。由图8可见,区块南部断层(包括F1、F2、F10、F11、F29和F30)受Inj-1注入点CO2注入引发的孔隙流体压力扩散影响,其库仑破裂应力增幅均超过0.01 MPa;而区块北部断层(包括F3、F4、F5、F9、F13和F23)的库仑破裂应力无变化或略有降低。其中,库仑破裂应力增幅最大的分段断层为F1-2、F11-1、F11-2、F30-4等。
得到库仑破裂应力变化时程ΔCFS(t)后,可根据式(5)通过隐式Euler法求得断层的相对地震活动率时程R(t)。需说明的是,计算参数背景应力率τ˙r在X区块缺少实测数据,但考虑到东海陆架盆地整体地震活动性较弱,取为5 Pa/a。得到所有分段断层的相对地震活动率时程后,在时间段[t1,t2]对其积分,同时引入背景地震活动率r0与震级-频度关系的b值,即可根据式(6)预估该时间段内区块中震级超过M的地震事件发生次数。需注意,背景地震活动率r0与震级-频度关系的b值一般通过区块内一定时期微地震监测的地震目录统计获得,X区块因缺少相关数据,本研究参考美国伊利诺伊盆地CCUS项目[42]及阿尔及利亚In Salah CCS项目[22]的微地震监测数据,取r0=0.35 次/a,b=1.35。再根据式(7)求得时间段[t1,t2]区块中震级超过M的地震事件发生概率,即可得到该时间段内区块的诱发地震震级超越概率曲线。最终计算得到CO2注入开始后第1年、第3年及第10年的诱发地震震级超越概率曲线(图9)。由图9可见,在恒定注入速率条件下,随注入CO2总量增加,各断层的孔隙流体压力与库仑破裂应力逐渐升高,相应的相对地震活动率也随之增大,进而导致某一震级诱发地震的发生概率上升。在地震风险评估中,通常以2%的超越概率作为显著性指标评估震级上限[62]。据此估算,当CO2注入规模为60×10⁴ t/a时,区块内诱发地震的震级上限(超越概率2%)为M=1.8级。
为了研究注入速率对CO2地质封存诱发地震危险性的影响,将Inj-1注入点的注入速率调整为25.368 kg/s与31.710 kg/s,分别对应80×10⁴ t/a与100×10⁴ t/a的封存规模,进而开展区块诱发地震危险性分析。
通过Inj-1注入点按100×10⁴ t/a封存规模注入CO2时储层孔隙流体压力增量计算,得到1、3、10 a后各分段断层面上的库仑破裂应力变化,最终计算得到Inj-1注入点不同注入速率下,CO2注入第10年的诱发地震震级超越概率曲线对比结果(图10)。由图10可见,随注入速率增大,因孔隙流体压力扩散范围扩大,断层面的库仑破裂应力变化也会随之增加,进而导致相对地震活动性升高,最终表现为某一震级诱发地震的发生概率上升。当CO2注入规模分别为60×10⁴、80×10⁴、100×10⁴ t/a时,区块内诱发地震的震级上限(超越概率2%)依次为M=1.8级、M=1.9级、M=2.2级。
将储层北部区域(由断层F2、F3、F4和F10包围)也作为CO2封存圈闭,新增注入点Inj-2(图3),采用Inj-1与Inj-2同步注入CO2的模式。总封存规模设定为100×10⁴ t/a,对应单个注入点的注入速率为15.855 kg/s,据此开展区块诱发地震危险性分析。
通过Inj-1与Inj-2按总封存规模100×10⁴ t/a同步注入CO2时的储层孔隙流体压力增量计算,得到1、3、10 a后各分段断层面上的库仑破裂应力变化,最终计算得到两注入点同步注入(总规模100×10⁴ t/a)时,CO2注入第10年的诱发地震震级超越概率曲线,并与仅Inj-1单点注入(规模100×10⁴ t/a)的结果进行对比(图11)。由图11可见,实施分区注入后,孔隙流体压力扩散范围缩小,断层面上的库仑破裂应力变化降低,进而使断层相对地震活动性减小,最终降低了诱发地震的发生概率。Inj-1与Inj-2分区同步注入时,区块内诱发地震的震级上限(超越概率2%)为M=2.0级,较仅Inj-1单点注入的M=2.2级有所降低。但需注意,该区块本身诱发地震危险性较低,而分区注入会显著增加成本,因此,从经济性角度考量,该方案的可行性有待进一步权衡。
针对未来东海陆架盆地开展CCUS项目可能面临的诱发地震问题,以东海西湖凹陷X区块为研究对象,采用确定性与概率性相结合的断层稳定性分析方法,对该区块的CO2注入诱发地震危险性展开研究,得出以下结论:
1) 东海陆架盆地整体断裂活动已基本停止,盆地内部地震活动性弱,西湖凹陷断裂平面展布呈“东西分带、南北分块”特征,活动断裂最浅上断界面位于花港组至柳浪组之间。
2) 东海西湖凹陷中新统地层具备完整储盖体系,可选取X区块玉泉组中部砂岩含水层作为CO2封存目标储层;该目标储层呈背斜形态,内部发育12条断层(分北北东向、北西西向2类),将封存圈闭分割为南北2个区域;断层初始状态整体稳定,滑移失稳风险较低。
3) 在目标储层南部圈闭按60×10⁴ t/a规模开展CO2封存,10 a注入周期内,孔隙流体压力增量0.2 MPa的区域未扩散至周边断层;相对地震活动率较大的分段断层为F1-2、F11-1、F11-2、F30-4,区块内诱发地震震级上限预估为M=1.8级。
4) CO2注入速率增大时,孔隙流体压力扩散影响范围相应扩大,导致地震活动性升高,按80×10⁴、100×10⁴ t/a规模封存时,诱发地震震级上限分别预估为M=1.9级、M=2.2级,在南部圈闭与北部圈闭实施分区注入可降低诱发地震震级上限,但因该区块本身诱发地震危险性较低,分区注入方案的经济性有待考量,整体并非经济有效的优化选择。​

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doi: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025192
  • 接收时间:2025-04-22
  • 首发时间:2026-10-30
  • 出版时间:2026-01-26
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孙鑫(1985—),男,硕士,工程师,从事安全工程工作。地址:上海市浦东新区锦康路50弄2号,邮政编码:200127。E-mail:
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
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红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
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红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
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