Article(id=1322942860659663770, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, issueId=1322942002035295141, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.20260123, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1776268800000, receivedDateStr=2026-04-16, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793343757070, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1790352000000, pubDateStr=2026-09-26, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793343757070, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793343757070, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793343757070, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322942002035295141, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, year='2026', volume='16', issue='5', pageStart='949', pageEnd='1136', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1790352000000', pubDateStr='2026-09-26', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793343552359, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793344212649, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1322944771945267389, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, issueId=1322942002035295141, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1322944771945267390, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, issueId=1322942002035295141, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1129, endPage=1136, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322942861301392284, articleId=1322942860659663770, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, language=EN, title=Development path and strategic exploration of China’s natural gas economy under “dual carbon” goals, columnId=1322942861007791003, journalTitle=Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, columnName=Comprehensive Research, runingTitle=null, highlight=

Against the backdrop of ongoing efforts toward carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and the strengthening of energy security constraints, it is essential to clearly define the role of natural gas in China’s energy structure transformation. Exploring practical pathways for the high-quality development of the natural gas sector has become particularly important. By integrating literature review, statistical comparison, industrial chain analysis, and supply-demand balance scenario calculation, this study constructs an analytical framework focusing on natural gas demand growth, supply security, infrastructure construction, market mechanism reform, and key application scenarios. It systematically examines the realistic foundation, major shortcomings, and strategic directions for China’s natural gas economic development under the “dual carbon” goals, and proposes relevant policy and measure recommendations. The research finds that China’s natural gas market still holds growth potential. In 2025, apparent consumption exceeded 4 265.5×10⁸ m³, domestic production steadily increased, pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports continued to diversify, and application scenarios such as gas-fired power generation, industrial substitution, urban gas, transportation, and marine fuel still have development potential. However, the industry has transitioned from simple scale expansion to a new phase emphasizing safety, economic efficiency, and low-carbon synergy, facing constraints including slowing consumption growth, volatile import prices, insufficient industrial chain coordination, shortcomings in infrastructure construction, and imperfect market-oriented mechanisms. Scenario calculation indicates that China’s natural gas demand peak is significantly influenced by the pace of energy substitution, gas-fired power peak regulation, the economic viability of industrial gas use, and the development speed of non-fossil fuels. Under the baseline scenario, it is expected to enter a peak plateau around 2035-2040. Natural gas serves as a low-carbon transitional energy source, a resource for energy security adjustment, and a flexible support resource for the new power system in China’s energy transition. Going forward, China should adhere to principles of safety priority, low-carbon synergy, and economic feasibility. By enhancing domestic gas supply and diversified imports, strengthening coordination and mutual promotion across the industrial chain, advancing infrastructure construction and technological innovation, and improving market mechanisms, a natural gas economic development path aligned with the “dual carbon” goals will be formed.

, articleAbstract=null, authors=ZHIFENG YUAN1, DAOYONG ZHANG2, XUECHEN LI2, YUFENG GU2, authorsList=ZHIFENG YUAN, DAOYONG ZHANG, XUECHEN LI, YUFENG GU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=DAOYONG ZHANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322942863805391775, articleId=1322942860659663770, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, language=CN, title=“双碳”目标下中国天然气经济发展路径与战略探索, columnId=1322942862974919581, journalTitle=油气藏评价与开发, columnName=综合研究, runingTitle=null, highlight=

在碳达峰、碳中和目标持续推进和能源安全约束强化的背景下，明确天然气在中国能源结构转型中的功能定位。探索天然气经济高质量发展的现实路径显得尤为重要。综合采用文献归纳、统计对比、产业链分析与供需平衡情景测算等方法，围绕天然气需求增长、供应保障、基础设施建设、市场机制改革和重点应用场景构建分析框架，系统梳理“双碳”目标下中国天然气经济发展的现实基础、主要短板和战略方向，并提出相关政策和措施建议。研究认为，中国天然气市场仍具增长基础，2025年表观消费量突破4 265.5×10⁸ m³，国内产量稳步增长，管道气和LNG（液化天然气）进口来源持续多元化，燃气发电、工业替代、城镇燃气、交通等场景仍具有发展空间。但行业发展已从单纯规模扩张转向安全、经济性与低碳协同并重的新阶段，面临消费增速放缓、进口价格波动、产业链协同不足、基础设施建设短板以及市场化机制不完善等约束。情景测算表明，中国天然气需求峰值受能源替代节奏、气电调峰需求、工业用气经济性和非化石能源发展速度影响显著，基准情景下预计将在2035—2040年进入峰值平台期。天然气作为中国能源转型中的低碳过渡能源、能源安全调节资源和新型电力系统灵活性支撑资源，未来应坚持安全优先、低碳协同和经济可行原则，通过增强国产气和多元进口保障、加强产业链协同互促、推动基础设施建设和技术创新、健全市场机制，形成与“双碳”目标相适应的天然气经济发展路径。

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袁志锋（1970—），男，硕士，副教授，主要从事油田能源结构优化、低碳产业布局、能源经济可持续发展等研究工作。地址：河南省濮阳市黄河西路249号濮阳职业技术学院经济管理学院，邮政编码：457000。E-mail： ecedu05@126.com

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袁志锋（1970—），男，硕士，副教授，主要从事油田能源结构优化、低碳产业布局、能源经济可持续发展等研究工作。地址：河南省濮阳市黄河西路249号濮阳职业技术学院经济管理学院，邮政编码：457000。E-mail： ecedu05@126.com

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情景	2030年需求规模/108 m3	2035年需求规模/108 m3	2040年需求规模/108 m3	峰值判断
基准情景	5 200	5 900	6 300	2035—2040年进入峰值平台期
积极替代情景	5 500~5 700	6 400~6 700	6 800~7 200	2040年前后达到高位峰值
低碳约束情景	4 800~5 100	5 400~5 700	5 400~5 800	2035年前后进入峰值平台期

), ArticleFig(id=1322942870071681989, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1322258508890079423, articleId=1322942860659663770, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

不同情景下中国天然气需求峰值测算

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

情景	2030年需求规模/108 m3	2035年需求规模/108 m3	2040年需求规模/108 m3	峰值判断
基准情景	5 200	5 900	6 300	2035—2040年进入峰值平台期
积极替代情景	5 500~5 700	6 400~6 700	6 800~7 200	2040年前后达到高位峰值
低碳约束情景	4 800~5 100	5 400~5 700	5 400~5 800	2035年前后进入峰值平台期

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