Article(id=1320422991872250612, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, issueId=1320422991322796787, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1759161600000, receivedDateStr=2025-09-30, revisedDate=1763913600000, revisedDateStr=2025-11-24, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1792742973534, onlineDateStr=2026-10-23, pubDate=1769702400000, pubDateStr=2026-01-30, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792742973534, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792742973534, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792742973534, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320422991322796787, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, year='2026', volume='43', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='86', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1769702400000', pubDateStr='2026-01-30', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792742973404, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792745324599, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320432853012304549, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, issueId=1320422991322796787, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320432853016498854, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, issueId=1320422991322796787, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=26, endPage=33, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320422992128103158, articleId=1320422991872250612, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, language=EN, title=A probability analysis method and application of stress intensity limit St in creep evaluation of high‑temperature components, columnId=1320422992044217077, journalTitle=Pressure Vessel Technology, columnName=Designs & Analyses, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Creep is a major damage mechanism for high‑temperature components in nuclear power plants,and the temperature‑ and time‑dependent stress intensity limit St is an important material parameter for creep assessment.In the ASME Code,safety factors are directly applied to the three criteria for determining the stress intensity limit St,but the implied failure probability and conservatism of this method have rarely been reported.To quantify the failure probability of St,functional expressions for the failure probability corresponding to each criterion were derived in this study based on creep data of Alloy 617,combined with the relationship between each Stcriterion and the average creep rupture life equation.The failure probabilities of the three criteria for St of Alloy 617 were calculated,and the effects of safety factors(1.0,1.25,1.5) on the failure probabilities were discussed.The results show that the stress intensity limit St of Alloy 617 exhibits a relatively low failure probability(at 750 ℃,10⁻⁹~10⁻⁵;at 850 ℃,10-8~10-5;at 950 ℃,10-8~10-4),indicating a high level of conservatism.The minimum stress for the onset of tertiary creep criterion and the minimum creep rupture stress criterion play a controlling role in St,depending on the stress level.The findings can provide a theoretical basis for the probabilistic evaluation of material parameters related to high‑temperature strength assessment.

, authors=Xinyang HOU, Jianguo GONG, Jinhui FU, Yang GAO, Fuzhen XUAN, authorsList=Xinyang HOU, Jianguo GONG, Jinhui FU, Yang GAO, Fuzhen XUAN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Jianguo GONG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320422995726816014, articleId=1320422991872250612, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, language=CN, title=高温部件蠕变评价中应力强度限值St的概率分析方法及应用, columnId=1320422992211989239, journalTitle=压力容器, columnName=设计计算, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

蠕变是核电高温部件的重要损伤模式,与温度和时间相关的应力强度限值St是蠕变评价的重要材料参数。在ASME规范中,安全系数直接应用于应力强度限值St的三个确定准则,但该确定方法所隐含的失效概率与保守性问题缺乏相关报道。为量化应力强度限值St失效概率,基于617合金蠕变数据,结合St各准则与平均蠕变断裂寿命方程的关联,推导了各准则对应概率的函数表达式,计算了617合金应力强度限值St三个准则的失效概率,讨论了安全系数(1.0,1.25,1.5)对失效概率结果的影响。结果表明,对于617合金,应力强度限值St具有较低的失效概率(750 ℃时,10⁻⁹~10⁻⁵;850 ℃时,10-8~10-5;950 ℃时,10-8~10-4),表明该参量引入了较高的保守性;引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则和最小蠕变断裂应力准则对应力强度限值St起控制作用,取决于应力水平的高低。研究结果可为高温强度评价相关材料参量的概率评估提供理论依据。

, authors=侯鑫阳, 宫建国, 付金辉, 高阳, 轩福贞, authorsList=侯鑫阳, 宫建国, 付金辉, 高阳, 轩福贞, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=宫建国, authorNote=

侯鑫阳(2000),男,博士研究生,主要从事高温结构完整性研究,通信地址:200237上海市徐汇区梅陇路130号华东理工大学机械与动力工程学院,E-mail:。

, correspAuthorsNote=
宫建国(1988),男,副教授,博士,主要从事高温结构完整性研究,通信地址:200237上海市徐汇区梅陇路130号华东理工大学机械与动力工程学院,E-mail:。
, copyrightStatement=作者向本刊所投稿件一经本刊录用,则该论文的复制权、发行权、信息网络传播权、翻译权、汇编权等权利视为自动转让给本刊。本刊为国内各主要数据库收录期刊,本刊所发表的稿件将同时通过因特网进行网络出版或提供信息服务(包括印刷版、光盘版和网络版等各种使用方式)。, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=Yz3U6h1AmMQrVW7AjpVWYw==, magXml=Xrr8haYxYw5DWCcDZJiL+A==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=nno399x4H1fjWBzlKQKs+w==, pdfFileSize=1665804, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=vLTIgHtVopMGHaE/h/9LSw==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=Eu9wwKvFl3oW2pP4/Eu5sg==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1320422996058166035, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=Y12242129@mail.ecust.edu.cn, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1320422996137857813, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, authorId=1320422996058166035, language=EN, stringName=Xinyang HOU, firstName=Xinyang, middleName=null, lastName=HOU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=School of Mechanical and Power Engineering,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1320422996209160982, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, authorId=1320422996058166035, language=CN, stringName=侯鑫阳, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=华东理工大学 机械与动力工程学院,上海 200237, bio={"content":"

侯鑫阳(2000),男,博士研究生,主要从事高温结构完整性研究,通信地址:200237上海市徐汇区梅陇路130号华东理工大学机械与动力工程学院,E-mail:。

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侯鑫阳(2000),男,博士研究生,主要从事高温结构完整性研究,通信地址:200237上海市徐汇区梅陇路130号华东理工大学机械与动力工程学院,E-mail:。

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language=CN, orderNo=3, keyword=安全系数), Keyword(id=1320422997882688306, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, language=CN, orderNo=4, keyword=失效概率)], refs=[Reference(id=1320423004610351950, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=142, issue=6, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=1, rfOrder=0, authorNames=NIU T Y, GONG C, GONG J G, journalName=ASME Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology, refType=null, unstructuredReference=NIU T Y,GONG C,GONG J G,et al.Creep failure behavior of notched structure in the simulated steam turbine rotor:experimental and damage analysis[J].ASME Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology,2020, 142(6):061502., articleTitle=Creep failure behavior of notched structure in the simulated steam turbine rotor:experimental and damage analysis, refAbstract=null), 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articleId=1320422991872250612, language=CN, label=图5, caption=617合金引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力失效概率评估, figureFileSmall=b8f8seA2jDCi9xQkHzzhqA==, figureFileBig=wNZ/8a2u17a2F9G1JJx1Wg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320423001640784704, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, language=EN, label=Fig.6, caption=Evaluation of failure probability of minimum stress to creep rupture of Alloy 617, figureFileSmall=n+vifad95KrTfTmBhq3RqQ==, figureFileBig=7L4XDXzBdGTTNf48M3EkBA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320423001716282177, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, language=CN, label=图6, caption=617合金最小蠕变断裂应力失效概率评估, figureFileSmall=n+vifad95KrTfTmBhq3RqQ==, figureFileBig=7L4XDXzBdGTTNf48M3EkBA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320423001779196738, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, language=EN, label=Fig.7, caption=Failure probability 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journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, language=CN, label=图11, caption=不同温度下304不锈钢应力强度限值St失效概率分析结果, figureFileSmall=rL8wu8vOUGL5Eneb7THdkQ==, figureFileBig=Dj9U/Gpn/BwXwttiOuN81g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320423004329333580, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

Parameters related to the Larson-Millerequation of Alloy 617

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参数数值
a032 976.41
a1-5 908.10
a20
b030 489.72
b1-5 232.63
b20
c032 317.19
c1-5 533.12
c20
C016.73
C116.71
C217.16
SEE20.44
SEE30.34
), ArticleFig(id=1320423004505494349, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319355204128309394, articleId=1320422991872250612, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

617合金Larson-Miller方程相关参数

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参数数值
a032 976.41
a1-5 908.10
a20
b030 489.72
b1-5 232.63
b20
c032 317.19
c1-5 533.12
c20
C016.73
C116.71
C217.16
SEE20.44
SEE30.34
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高温部件蠕变评价中应力强度限值St的概率分析方法及应用
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侯鑫阳 , 宫建国 , 付金辉 , 高阳 , 轩福贞
压力容器 | 设计计算 2026,43(1): 26-33
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压力容器 |设计计算 2026 , 43 (1) : 26 -33
高温部件蠕变评价中应力强度限值St的概率分析方法及应用
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侯鑫阳 , 宫建国 , 付金辉, 高阳, 轩福贞
作者信息
  • 华东理工大学 机械与动力工程学院,上海 200237
通讯作者:
宫建国(1988),男,副教授,博士,主要从事高温结构完整性研究,通信地址:200237上海市徐汇区梅陇路130号华东理工大学机械与动力工程学院,E-mail:。
作者简介:

侯鑫阳(2000),男,博士研究生,主要从事高温结构完整性研究,通信地址:200237上海市徐汇区梅陇路130号华东理工大学机械与动力工程学院,E-mail:。

A probability analysis method and application of stress intensity limit St in creep evaluation of high‑temperature components
Xinyang HOU , Jianguo GONG , Jinhui FU, Yang GAO, Fuzhen XUAN
Affiliations
  • School of Mechanical and Power Engineering,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China
出版时间: 2026-01-30 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004
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蠕变是核电高温部件的重要损伤模式,与温度和时间相关的应力强度限值St是蠕变评价的重要材料参数。在ASME规范中,安全系数直接应用于应力强度限值St的三个确定准则,但该确定方法所隐含的失效概率与保守性问题缺乏相关报道。为量化应力强度限值St失效概率,基于617合金蠕变数据,结合St各准则与平均蠕变断裂寿命方程的关联,推导了各准则对应概率的函数表达式,计算了617合金应力强度限值St三个准则的失效概率,讨论了安全系数(1.0,1.25,1.5)对失效概率结果的影响。结果表明,对于617合金,应力强度限值St具有较低的失效概率(750 ℃时,10⁻⁹~10⁻⁵;850 ℃时,10-8~10-5;950 ℃时,10-8~10-4),表明该参量引入了较高的保守性;引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则和最小蠕变断裂应力准则对应力强度限值St起控制作用,取决于应力水平的高低。研究结果可为高温强度评价相关材料参量的概率评估提供理论依据。

617合金  /  应力强度限值St  /  安全系数  /  失效概率

Creep is a major damage mechanism for high‑temperature components in nuclear power plants,and the temperature‑ and time‑dependent stress intensity limit St is an important material parameter for creep assessment.In the ASME Code,safety factors are directly applied to the three criteria for determining the stress intensity limit St,but the implied failure probability and conservatism of this method have rarely been reported.To quantify the failure probability of St,functional expressions for the failure probability corresponding to each criterion were derived in this study based on creep data of Alloy 617,combined with the relationship between each Stcriterion and the average creep rupture life equation.The failure probabilities of the three criteria for St of Alloy 617 were calculated,and the effects of safety factors(1.0,1.25,1.5) on the failure probabilities were discussed.The results show that the stress intensity limit St of Alloy 617 exhibits a relatively low failure probability(at 750 ℃,10⁻⁹~10⁻⁵;at 850 ℃,10-8~10-5;at 950 ℃,10-8~10-4),indicating a high level of conservatism.The minimum stress for the onset of tertiary creep criterion and the minimum creep rupture stress criterion play a controlling role in St,depending on the stress level.The findings can provide a theoretical basis for the probabilistic evaluation of material parameters related to high‑temperature strength assessment.

Alloy 617  /  stress intensity limit St  /  safety factor  /  failure probability
侯鑫阳, 宫建国, 付金辉, 高阳, 轩福贞. 高温部件蠕变评价中应力强度限值St的概率分析方法及应用. 压力容器, 2026 , 43 (1) : 26 -33 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004
Xinyang HOU, Jianguo GONG, Jinhui FU, Yang GAO, Fuzhen XUAN. A probability analysis method and application of stress intensity limit St in creep evaluation of high‑temperature components[J]. Pressure Vessel Technology, 2026 , 43 (1) : 26 -33 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004
近年来,新一代核电系统受到了国内外科学与工程界的广泛关注,其运行温度远超传统压水堆[1-2]。例如,超高温堆的运行温度为900 ℃[3-4]。在新的核能系统场景下,以617合金为代表的镍基合金具有优异的抗蠕变性能,是核能系统高温部件的重要候选材料。由于核能装备高温部件的设计寿命长、服役温度高,其蠕变评价是结构完整性评估需要重点关注的内容之一。
当前,核电高温部件的蠕变评价多基于ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code,2023 Edition,Section Ⅲ,Division 5.High Temperature Reactors;RCC-MRx,2015 Edition,Subsection B,Class N1Rx Reactor Components its auxiliary Systems and Supports等设计规范。在ASME规范的高温强度设计体系中,涉及许多应力强度限值。其中,与温度和时间相关的应力强度限值St是重要的材料性能参数,其主要用于限定A/B级服役载荷中的一次局部薄膜应力加一次弯曲应力〔见式(1)〕及限定C级服役载荷中的一次总体薄膜应力〔见式(2)〕。
PL+Pb/Kt≤St
Pm≤min1.2Sm,1.0St
式中,PL为一次局部薄膜应力;Pb为一次弯曲应力;Kt为蠕变弯曲形状因子;St为与温度和时间相关的应力强度限值;Pm为一次总体薄膜应力;Sm为与时间无关的应力强度限值。
应力强度限值St定义为以下3个准则中的最小值:(1)总应变达到1%所需平均应力的100%,记为S1%;(2)引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力的80%,标记为St3;(3)造成最小蠕变断裂应力的67%,标记为Sr。上述应力强度限值St准则中的100%,80%,67%三个因子分别对应1.0,1.25,1.5的安全系数。由于材料类型、温度、蠕变特性等因素的差异,应力强度限值St的主控准则可能发生变化。例如,当第3个准则起主导作用时,最小蠕变断裂应力Sr为平均蠕变断裂数据的95%下限;引入安全系数1.5后,该准则对应的失效概率将进一步降低。
前期一些研究人员曾开展相关研究工作。例如,HOU等[5]提出了应力强度限值St各准则的失效概率分析框架,针对316和304不锈钢的应力强度限值St进行了的概率评价,以解决过度保守设计的问题;FU等[6]提出了基于可靠性和安全系数之间的关联框架,讨论了最小蠕变断裂应力可靠度和安全系数的关系;ZHAO等[7]提出了Z参数来表示蠕变断裂数据的离散程度,与基于安全系数方法得到的许用应力相比,所提出的Z参数法可以得到更理想的结果;CHOUDHARY等[8]在服役条件-蠕变断裂性能干扰(SCRI)模型概念下,基于Z参数法对91钢的蠕变断裂寿命进行了可靠性评估;TAN等[9]考虑了温度和蠕变时间的影响,基于ASME规范的方法建立了最小应力蠕变断裂与平均趋势线的关系;周立群等[10]基于TTP参数法,对25Cr20NiNbN钢的持久寿命进行了评估,利用Z参数法分析了预测结果模型精确度,并计算了不同可靠度下材料的持久寿命。总体来说,这些文献与本文的研究主题存在一定差异。鉴于617高温合金在核电工程领域的应用需求,本文主要开展高温部件蠕变评价中应力强度限值St的概率分析研究,定量表征传统安全系数方法所隐含的保守性。
对于时间相关的应力强度限值St,在确定性分析中,当应力达到该强度限值后即认为发生蠕变强度失效。该方法相对简洁,但无法量化实际风险。在概率分析中,考虑材料数据的不确定性,引入失效概率参量k0,构建St失效概率与温度、应力及安全系数的关系,可以量化不同工况下的失效概率和保守度。本节主要讨论617合金应力强度限值St失效概率分析框架。
617合金蠕变数据来源于ASME规范中的617合金规范案例草案[11]。由试验得到的平均蠕变断裂寿命是材料性能的一个基本变量,体现了材料在特定应力和温度下的承载能力,可以作为概率评估的参考。使用Larson-Miller方程[12]表示617合金的平均蠕变断裂寿命:
logt0=a0+a1log(σ)+a2log(σ)2T-C0
式中,t0为平均蠕变断裂寿命,h;a0,a1,a2,C0为材料参数;σ为应力,MPa;T为温度,K。
应力强度限值Sₜ的第一准则定义为:总应变达到1%时所需平均应力(S1%)的100%。相关计算式如下:
logt1=b0+b1log(σ)+b2log(σ)2T-C1
式中,t1为总应变达到1%所需时间,h;b0,b1,b2,C1为材料参数。
1%总应变所用数据如图1(a)[11]所示。
应力强度限值Sₜ的第二准则定义如下:引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力(St3)的80%。St3定义为引起蠕变第三阶段开始平均应力的95%下限应力,其公式如下:
logt2=c0+c1log(σ)+c2log(σ)2T-C2-1.65SEE2
式中,t2为蠕变第三阶段开始时间,h;c0,c1,c2,C2为材料参数;SEE2为对数蠕变第三阶段起始时间估计标准差,表征蠕变数据的离散性。
蠕变第三阶段开始所用数据如图1(b)[11]所示。
应力强度限值Sₜ的第三准则定义如下:造成蠕变断裂最小应力(Sr)的67%。Sr定义为造成蠕变断裂平均应力的95%下限应力,其公式如下:
logt3=a0+a1log(σ)+a2log(σ)2T-C0-1.65SEE3
式中,t3为最小蠕变断裂寿命,h;SEE3为对数蠕变断裂时间估计标准差,表征蠕变数据的离散性。
蠕变断裂所用数据如图1(c)[11]所示。
617合金应力强度限值St的相关参数见表1[11]。
应力强度限值St各准则与平均蠕变断裂寿命数据的关联方法如图2[5]所示。以第三准则为例,引入概率参量k0确定特定失效概率下的蠕变断裂应力下限,其公式如下:
logt4=a0+a1log(σ)+a2log(σ)2T-C0+k0SEE3
式中,t4为蠕变断裂寿命下限,h;k0为概率参量。
在ASME规范中,最小蠕变断裂应力Sr定义为平均蠕变断裂寿命数据的95%下限,对应k0=-1.65。由于应力强度限值St第三准则中包含67%因子,对应安全系数为1.5;将安全系数SFSr引入到式(7)可得:
y5=logt5={a0+a1log(σSFSr)
+a2log(σSFSr)2}/T
-C0-1.65SEE3
式中,t5为考虑安全系数后的蠕变断裂寿命下限,h;SFSr为安全系数。
联立式(7)和式(8),两个方程对应的曲线有一个交点,计算k0的解,如下式所示:
k03={a2log(SFSr)2+(a1+2a2logσ)×log(SFSr)}/(T×SEE3)-1.65
式中,k03为概率参量。
k0是应力、安全系数SF、温度和标准差的函数[5]。可基于式(9)计算任意温度、应力和安全系数组合下的失效概率。应力强度限值St第一和第二准则概率参数k0推导过程与上述相同,结果分别如式(10)和式(11)所示:
     k01={b2log(SFS1%)2+b1+2b2log(σ)×log(SFS1%)}/(T×SEE3)+{(b2-a2)×log(σ)2+(b1-a1)log(σ)+(b0-a0)}÷(T×SEE3)+(C0-C1)/SEE3
式中,k01为概率参量;SFS1%为安全系数。
k02={c2log(SFSt3)2+c1+2c2log(σ)×log(SFSt3)}/(T×SEE3)+{(c2-a2)×log(σ)2+(c1-a1)×log(σ)+(c0-a0)}/(T×SEE3)
    +(C0-C2-1.65SEE2)/SEE3
式中,k02为概率参量;SFSt3为安全系数。
假定所用617合金对数蠕变寿命近似服从正态分布,其概率密度函数和分布函数可由式(12)和式(13)确定。
fy=1S2πexp-y-μ2/2S2
Fy=∫-∞yftdt
式中,f(y)为概率密度函数;S为标准差;μ为均值;F(y)为概率分布函数;y为积分上限。
在ASME规范中,最小蠕变断裂应力Sr定义为平均蠕变断裂寿命数据的95%下限(可靠度为95%),k0=-1.65,对应失效概率为5%,此时,概率密度函数从-∞至-1.65的积分为0.05。因此,以概率参量k0作为式(13)的积分上限,计算结果即为失效概率。
根据1.1节中的方程和材料参数,评估了750 ℃下617合金应力强度限值St的控制准则,如图3所示。
由应力强度限值St的确定性评估结果可得出下列结论。
(1)不考虑安全系数时,在低应力水平下,三个准则对应的应力强度依次为Sr>St3>S1%,表明总应变达到1%所需平均应力准则控制应力强度限值St;在高应力水平下,三个准则对应的应力强度依次为Sr>S1%>St3,表明引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力起决定性作用。
(2)考虑安全系数时,在低应力水平下,三个准则的应力强度依次为S1%>Sr>St3,表明引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则控制应力强度限值St;在高应力水平下,三个准则对应的应力强度依次为S1%>St3>Sr,表明最小蠕变断裂应力起决定性作用。
基于第1.2节中的概率分析方法,开展不同温度下(750,850,950 ℃)617合金总应变达到1%时所需平均应力的概率评估研究,安全系数包括1.0,1.25和1.5,失效概率分析结果如图4所示。可以看出,总应变达到1%时所需平均应力准则的失效概率随应力和温度升高而增大,随安全系数增加而减小。在式(10)中,参数a2,b2均为0,当安全系数恒定时,k0随应力和温度升高而增大,且k0作为式(13)的积分上限,导致失效概率增加;当温度和应力恒定时,由于b1为负值,k0随安全系数增加而减小,导致失效概率降低。
基于第1.2节中的概率分析方法,开展不同温度下(750,850,950 ℃)617合金引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力的概率评估研究,安全系数包括1.0,1.25和1.5,失效概率分析结果如图5所示。可以看出,当安全系数大于1.0时,引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则的失效概率随应力和温度升高而增大,随安全系数增加而减小。在式(11)中,参数a2,c2均为0,当安全系数恒定时,k0随应力和温度升高而增大,且k0作为式(13)的积分上限,导致失效概率增加;当温度和应力恒定时,由于c1为负值,k0随安全系数增大而减小,导致失效概率降低;当安全系数为1.0时,发现失效概率并不符合上述规律,不同温度的曲线存在交叉现象,这是由于本研究只采用了一阶Larson-Miller方程,式(11)中a2和c2均为0,当温度升高时,k0与log(σ)曲线的斜率减小,导致温度低时曲线斜率大(失效概率增加速度快),温度高时曲线斜率小(失效概率增加速度慢),所以可能会存在曲线交叉现象。
基于1.2节中的概率分析方法,开展不同温度下(750,850,950℃)617合金最小蠕变断裂应力的概率评估研究,安全系数包括1.0,1.25和1.5,分析结果如图6所示。
以750 ℃为例,安全系数为1.0时,失效概率恒定为5%。这是因为最小蠕变断裂应力Sr在ASME规范中定义为95%下限应力,对应失效概率为5%。安全系数大于1.0时,如1.25和1.5,失效概率随温度升高而增大,且仍是恒定值,分别为0.049%和0.00017%。从式(9)中可以看出,若参数a2不等于0,系数k0与温度、安全系数和应力相关,由于所用617合金蠕变试验数据仅包含一阶Larson-Miller方程参数(a2=0),系数k0与应力无关,失效概率仅为温度和安全系数的函数,当温度和安全系数确定后,失效概率为恒定值。
基于ASME规范中应力强度限值St的定义和第2.2节中对三种控制准则的失效概率分析结果,选择617合金的典型温度(750 ℃)进行失效概率分析,结果如图7所示。可以发现,当应力低于110 MPa时,引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则的失效概率最低,失效概率范围大约在10-9~10-5;当应力高于110 MPa时,最小蠕变断裂应力准则的失效概率最低,恒定为1.7×10-6。综上,在750 ℃时,617合金应力强度限值St主要由引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则和最小蠕变断裂应力准则控制,失效概率范围为10-9~10-5。
在750,850,950 ℃下,617合金应力强度限值St的失效概率分析结果如图8所示。可以看出,在温度相同时,应力强度限值St的控制准则规律是相同的,即先由引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则控制,然后由最小蠕变断裂应力准则控制。617合金在750,850,950 ℃下,应力强度限值St的失效概率范围分别为10-9~10-5,10-8~10-5和10-8~10-4,表明应力强度限值St失效概率随温度的升高而增大。由2.2节分析结果可以得出,St各准则的失效概率均随温度升高而增大,而应力强度限值St定义为3个准则中的最小值,同样符合失效概率均随温度升高而增大的趋势。
图9示出给定失效概率为0.01%和0.001%时,617合金750 ℃下应力强度限值St各准则安全系数随应力的变化情况。
可以看出,随着失效概率降低,应力强度限值St各准则所需的安全系数都呈现升高的趋势;对于最小蠕变断裂应力准则,由于a2=0,式(9)中概率参量k0与log(SFSr)为线性关系,即失效概率与安全系数一一对应;对于总应变达到1%所需平均应力准则和引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则,安全系数SF均随应力增加而升高。
基于617合金现有Larson-Miller方程进行推导时,在给定失效概率情况下,617合金750 ℃下应力强度限值St第一和第二准则存在安全系数小于1的情况,这是由于617合金蠕变试验数据中没有覆盖较低应力范围,而在分析中拓展到了较低的应力值,影响分析结果的准确性。若包含617合金较低应力水平的蠕变数据,可以解决应力强度限值St第一和第二准则安全系数小于1的问题。
为分析不同材料应力强度限值St失效概率的差异,开展617合金、316不锈钢、304不锈钢相应结果的对比分析研究。
对于617合金,在考虑的温度范围内(750,850,950 ℃),随着应力水平的不断增大,617合金应力强度限值St先由引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则控制,再由最小蠕变断裂应力准则控制。这是因为应力较小时,蠕变第一、二阶段占蠕变寿命的比例较小,蠕变第三阶段开始时间与蠕变断裂时间差距相对较大。这导致引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则和最小蠕变断裂应力准则取相应的安全系数后,引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则为应力强度限值St的最小值。当应力较大时,617合金的蠕变变形机制可能发生转变,蠕变第一、二阶段占蠕变寿命的比例增大,蠕变第三阶段开始时间与蠕变断裂时间差距相对较小。这使得引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则和最小蠕变断裂应力准则取相应的安全系数后,最小蠕变断裂应力准则为应力强度限值St的最小值。
对于316不锈钢和304不锈钢(见图10[5]和图11[5]),在考虑的温度范围内(550,650,750 ℃),316不锈钢和304不锈钢应力强度限值St均由最小蠕变断裂应力准则控制。原因可能是蠕变第一、二阶段占蠕变寿命的比例较大,蠕变第三阶段开始时间与蠕变断裂时间差距相对较小,导致引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则和最小蠕变断裂应力准则取相应的安全系数后,最小蠕变断裂应力准则为应力强度限值St的最小值。
综上分析,不同材料应力强度限值St的主控准则存在差异。对于617合金,在考虑的温度范围内(750,850,950 ℃),随着应力水平的不断增大,应力强度限值St先由引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则控制,再由最小蠕变断裂应力准则控制。而对于316不锈钢和304不锈钢,在考虑的温度范围内(550,650,750 ℃),应力强度限值St均由最小蠕变断裂应力准则控制。
基于617合金蠕变断裂寿命数据,结合St各准则与平均蠕变断裂寿命方程,引入安全系数和概率参数k0,推导了各准则概率参量表达式,构建了应力强度限值St失效概率计算框架,分析了617合金应力强度限值St失效概率与温度、应力和安全系数的关系。
(1)通过关联617合金应力强度限值St各准则与平均蠕变断裂寿命方程,推导了各准则概率参量表达式,提出了617合金应力强度限值St的失效概率评估方法。
(2)计算了617合金应力强度限值St三个准则的失效概率,分析了安全系数和温度等因素对失效概率的影响,发现在750,850,950 ℃下,应力强度限值St的失效概率范围分别为10-9~10-5,10-8~10-5和10-8~10-4;应力强度限值St失效概率随温度的升高而增大,随安全系数增大而降低。
(3)分析了ASME规范中617合金应力强度限值St的控制准则,发现引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则控制和最小蠕变断裂应力准则在应力强度限值St中起主控作用。
(4)在给定失效概率为0.01%和0.001%时,分析了617合金750 ℃下应力强度限值St三个准则安全系数与应力的关系,最小蠕变断裂应力准则安全系数分别恒定为1.32和1.43;总应变达到1%所需平均应力准则和引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则所需安全系数均随应力增加而升高。
(5)对于617合金,在考虑的温度范围内(750,850,950 ℃),随着应力水平的不断增大,应力强度限值St先由引起蠕变第三阶段开始最小应力准则控制,再由最小蠕变断裂应力准则控制。而对于316不锈钢和304不锈钢,在考虑的温度范围内(550,650,750 ℃),应力强度限值St均由最小蠕变断裂应力准则控制。

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2026年第43卷第1期
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004
  • 接收时间:2025-09-30
  • 首发时间:2026-10-23
  • 出版时间:2026-01-30
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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-30
  • 修回日期:2025-11-24
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    华东理工大学 机械与动力工程学院,上海 200237

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宫建国(1988),男,副教授,博士,主要从事高温结构完整性研究,通信地址:200237上海市徐汇区梅陇路130号华东理工大学机械与动力工程学院,E-mail:。
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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属数
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种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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