Article(id=1276897152479654795, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1276576982599962646, issueId=1276896975568109838, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3724/j.slxb.20250422, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1753977600000, receivedDateStr=2025-08-01, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1782365604752, onlineDateStr=2026-06-25, pubDate=1779206400000, pubDateStr=2026-05-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1782365604752, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-06-25, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1782365604752, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1782365604752, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1276896975568109838, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1276576982599962646, year='2026', volume='57', issue='5', pageStart='651', pageEnd='808', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1779206400000', pubDateStr='2026-05-20', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1782365562574, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1782367019422, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1276903086153142605, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1276576982599962646, issueId=1276896975568109838, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1276903086153142606, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1276576982599962646, issueId=1276896975568109838, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=744, endPage=754, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1276897152773256076, articleId=1276897152479654795, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1276576982599962646, language=EN, title=Research on parameters of the Peck settlement formula for shield tunnels obliquely crossing upper the Yellow River dike, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Shield tunnel excavation beneath levees induces settlement deformation that poses a direct threat to levee integrity. Focusing on the planar oblique crossing between a shield tunnel and an embankment, this study investigates the effect of the horizontal oblique angle on the parameters of the classical Peck formula within an oblique coordinate framework. A modified approach for determining Peck formula parameters, incorporating a correction for the horizontal oblique angle, is proposed. Based on the Huanggang Road Tunnel project crossing beneath the Yellow River in Jinan, a field monitoring system was established to measure post-construction embankment settlement. The ground loss ratio and settlement trough width parameter, considering the influence of the horizontal oblique angle, were back-analyzed using the least squares regression method. The results show that the average settlement trough width parameter for the embankment strata in the Jinan section of the Yellow River is approximately 0.43, and the average ground loss ratio is about 0.31%. Neglecting the horizontal oblique angle leads to an overestimation of these parameters by approximately 12%, which may result in improper judgments regarding code compliance. Validation using measured data from the Jiluo Road Tunnel crossing beneath the Yellow River demonstrates that the proposed parameters offer satisfactory predictive capability and practical engineering applicability.

, authors=null, authorsList=Xiangjun SUN, Gang DENG, Dongyang LI, Wei LU, Qing’an LI, Yanyi ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1276897156191613855, articleId=1276897152479654795, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1276576982599962646, language=CN, title=盾构隧道斜交下穿黄河堤防的Peck沉降公式参数研究, columnId=0, journalTitle=水利学报, columnName=, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

盾构隧道下穿堤防引起的沉降变形将直接影响堤防安全,针对盾构隧道与堤防工程平面斜交的工程场景,基于斜交坐标系分析了水平斜交下穿角度对经典Peck公式参数的影响,提出一种考虑水平斜交角度影响的Peck公式参数确定方法。以济南黄岗路穿黄隧道为工程背景,通过布设地表沉降监测系统,获取盾构穿越后堤防沉降数据,并采用最小二乘回归方法拟合得到考虑水平斜交角度影响的地层损失率与沉降槽宽度系数。结果表明:黄河堤防济南段堤防地层平均沉降槽宽度参数约为0.43,平均地层损失率约为0.31%,忽略水平斜交角度会导致参数偏大约 12%,可能造成误判规范符合性。基于济泺路穿黄隧道实测数据,证实所提参数具有较好的预测精度与工程适用性。

, authors=

孙向军(1998—),博士生,主要从事土石堤坝安全防护研究。E-mail:

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张延亿(1979—),博士,正高级工程师,主要从事水工建筑物性态评价研究。E-mail:
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孙向军(1998—),博士生,主要从事土石堤坝安全防护研究。E-mail:

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孙向军(1998—),博士生,主要从事土石堤坝安全防护研究。E-mail:

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Longitudinal monitoring section information of the levee

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断面编号断面位置断面距堤顶中心线的近似距离d0/m监测点平均高程/m平均覆土深度z0/m
Ⅰ-Ⅰ背水坡20.2333.5645.3
Ⅱ-Ⅱ堤顶6.0037.5549.3
Ⅲ-Ⅲ堤顶-6.0037.4849.3
Ⅳ-Ⅳ迎水坡-11.6135.9947.8
), ArticleFig(id=1277261326095356488, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1276576982599962646, articleId=1276897152479654795, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

平行于堤防监测断面信息

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
断面编号断面位置断面距堤顶中心线的近似距离d0/m监测点平均高程/m平均覆土深度z0/m
Ⅰ-Ⅰ背水坡20.2333.5645.3
Ⅱ-Ⅱ堤顶6.0037.5549.3
Ⅲ-Ⅲ堤顶-6.0037.4849.3
Ⅳ-Ⅳ迎水坡-11.6135.9947.8
), ArticleFig(id=1277261326162465353, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1276576982599962646, articleId=1276897152479654795, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Parameters of the Peck formula for the Jinan section of the Yellow River levee

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监测断面平均值
Ⅰ-ⅠⅡ-ⅡⅢ-ⅢⅣ-Ⅳ
隧道轴线中心深度z/m5458585756.7
考虑斜交角度的影响i/m29.5820.7222.9922.7024.01
K0.550.360.400.400.43
η/%0.280.330.320.300.31
忽略斜交角度的影响i/m32.9123.0925.5825.2626.71
K0.610.400.440.450.47
η/%0.310.370.350.340.34
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黄河堤防济南段的Peck公式参数

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监测断面平均值
Ⅰ-ⅠⅡ-ⅡⅢ-ⅢⅣ-Ⅳ
隧道轴线中心深度z/m5458585756.7
考虑斜交角度的影响i/m29.5820.7222.9922.7024.01
K0.550.360.400.400.43
η/%0.280.330.320.300.31
忽略斜交角度的影响i/m32.9123.0925.5825.2626.71
K0.610.400.440.450.47
η/%0.310.370.350.340.34
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盾构隧道斜交下穿黄河堤防的Peck沉降公式参数研究
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孙向军 1, 2 , 邓刚 1, 2 , 李东洋 3 , 路威 1, 2 , 李庆安 4 , 张延亿 1, 2
水利学报 | 2026,57(5): 744-754
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水利学报 | 2026 , 57 (5) : 744 -754
盾构隧道斜交下穿黄河堤防的Peck沉降公式参数研究
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孙向军1, 2 , 邓刚1, 2, 李东洋3, 路威1, 2, 李庆安4, 张延亿1, 2
作者信息
  • 1.中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038
  • 2.中国水利水电科学研究院;水利部水工程建设与安全重点实验室,北京 100038
  • 3.济南黄河河务局天桥黄河河务局,山东 济南 250031
  • 4.山东黄河勘测设计研究院有限公司,山东 济南 250013
通讯作者:
张延亿(1979—),博士,正高级工程师,主要从事水工建筑物性态评价研究。E-mail:
Research on parameters of the Peck settlement formula for shield tunnels obliquely crossing upper the Yellow River dike
Xiangjun SUN1, 2 , Gang DENG1, 2, Dongyang LI3, Wei LU1, 2, Qing’an LI4, Yanyi ZHANG1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and;Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China
  • 2.Key Laboratory of Construction and Safety of Water Engineering of the Ministry;of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China
  • 3.Tianqiao Yellow River Administration Bureau,Jinane Yellow River Administration Bureau,Jinan 250031,China
  • 4.Shandong Yellow River Reconnaissance Design & Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250013,China
出版时间: 2026-05-20 doi: 10.3724/j.slxb.20250422
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盾构隧道下穿堤防引起的沉降变形将直接影响堤防安全,针对盾构隧道与堤防工程平面斜交的工程场景,基于斜交坐标系分析了水平斜交下穿角度对经典Peck公式参数的影响,提出一种考虑水平斜交角度影响的Peck公式参数确定方法。以济南黄岗路穿黄隧道为工程背景,通过布设地表沉降监测系统,获取盾构穿越后堤防沉降数据,并采用最小二乘回归方法拟合得到考虑水平斜交角度影响的地层损失率与沉降槽宽度系数。结果表明:黄河堤防济南段堤防地层平均沉降槽宽度参数约为0.43,平均地层损失率约为0.31%,忽略水平斜交角度会导致参数偏大约 12%,可能造成误判规范符合性。基于济泺路穿黄隧道实测数据,证实所提参数具有较好的预测精度与工程适用性。

盾构隧道  /  黄河大堤  /  斜交下穿  /  Peck公式  /  回归检验

Shield tunnel excavation beneath levees induces settlement deformation that poses a direct threat to levee integrity. Focusing on the planar oblique crossing between a shield tunnel and an embankment, this study investigates the effect of the horizontal oblique angle on the parameters of the classical Peck formula within an oblique coordinate framework. A modified approach for determining Peck formula parameters, incorporating a correction for the horizontal oblique angle, is proposed. Based on the Huanggang Road Tunnel project crossing beneath the Yellow River in Jinan, a field monitoring system was established to measure post-construction embankment settlement. The ground loss ratio and settlement trough width parameter, considering the influence of the horizontal oblique angle, were back-analyzed using the least squares regression method. The results show that the average settlement trough width parameter for the embankment strata in the Jinan section of the Yellow River is approximately 0.43, and the average ground loss ratio is about 0.31%. Neglecting the horizontal oblique angle leads to an overestimation of these parameters by approximately 12%, which may result in improper judgments regarding code compliance. Validation using measured data from the Jiluo Road Tunnel crossing beneath the Yellow River demonstrates that the proposed parameters offer satisfactory predictive capability and practical engineering applicability.

shield tunnel  /  Yellow River dike  /  oblique crossing upper  /  Peck formula  /  regression test
孙向军, 邓刚, 李东洋, 路威, 李庆安, 张延亿. 盾构隧道斜交下穿黄河堤防的Peck沉降公式参数研究. 水利学报, 2026 , 57 (5) : 744 -754 . DOI: 10.3724/j.slxb.20250422
Xiangjun SUN, Gang DENG, Dongyang LI, Wei LU, Qing’an LI, Yanyi ZHANG. Research on parameters of the Peck settlement formula for shield tunnels obliquely crossing upper the Yellow River dike[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2026 , 57 (5) : 744 -754 . DOI: 10.3724/j.slxb.20250422
堤防作为抵御洪水、保护沿岸人民生命财产和重要基础设施的第一道防线,其安全稳定直接关系到国家防洪安全和区域可持续发展1-3。近年来,随着城市化进程加快和交通基础设施建设的持续推进,我国兴修的跨江(河)隧道工程持续增多,如南水北调穿黄隧道4,珠三角水资源配置工程5,上海、南京、武汉等地的长江隧道6等。在隧道穿越江河堤防的施工过程中,难免会对堤身与堤基土体产生扰动,改变其原有的应力状态与渗流路径。若控制措施不当,易导致堤防发生过量沉降、开裂乃至坍塌等病害,严重威胁堤防结构安全与防洪功能,如上海越江隧道曾出现防汛墙渗水问题、南京下关穿江隧道也曾导致堤防过大变形等事故7。目前,盾构法已成为隧道施工的主流方式,并逐渐向超大直径方向发展,但超大直径盾构对地层的扰动更为显著,在软土地区甚至可能引起超过60 mm的堤坝沉降8,因此穿越主干河流大堤等重要防洪构筑物时,沉降控制是盾构施工中至关重要的风险控制环节。
在盾构隧道对堤岸结构影响的研究与实践方面,欧洲和日本起步较早。例如荷兰西斯凯尔特河隧道、日本东京湾隧道等工程,均在设计与施工阶段设定了极为严格的堤防保护标准9,尽管国外工程数量相对较少,但单项工程的历史数据积累较为系统;我国作为世界上跨江(河)盾构隧道工程数量最多、技术发展最快的国家,早期对沉降控制标准的要求相对宽松,随着工程经验的不断积累,沉降控制标准日趋严格,如《盾构隧道工程设计标准》(GB/T 51438—2021)10规定,在复杂敏感环境(如邻近重要建构筑物、地下管线、铁路)下,地层损失率应小于0.5%,地表沉降最大值不应超过40 mm。但因我国地形条件复杂,不同地区地质条件差异显著,目前普遍采用“区域性”控制原则,如《贵州省喀斯特地区盾构施工技术导则》11规定,盾构隧道工程施工引起的地表隆起值不应大于10 mm,沉降值不应大于30 mm。
地下隧道开挖引起的地表沉降曲线一般通称为“沉降槽”,Peck12提出沉降槽形态符合正态分布。至今,Peck公式因其简便性,在众多预测隧道开挖引起地表位移的方法中应用最为广泛,相关参数积累也最为丰富,如韩煊等13统计了8个地区的沉降槽宽度参数及地层损失率;吴昌胜等14对不同洞径条件下的地层损失率进行了统计分析;朱才辉等15分析了不同地区地铁施工引起地表最大沉降的离散特征。近年来,为适应复杂工程条件,众多学者对经典Peck公式进行了多种改进与应用,如张运强等16尝试将Peck公式扩展至横向、纵向、深层的三维情况;方恩权等17将Peck公式应用于盾构掘进的动态变化过程;韩煊等18引入了三类修正系数对传统 Peck 公式进行优化,来满足隧道下穿既有线沉降预测需求;康庄等19引入斜交角系数和纵向夹角修正Peck 公式;王超等20引入隧道收敛模式参数、复合地层主要影响角及地层损失率几何修正系数,结合叠加原理建立了双线盾构斜交下穿机场高速公路地表沉降预测模型;马昭等21针对大断面浅埋隧道,引入了断面形状修正系数和双沉降槽宽度系数;Wang等22通过引入重复扰动区附加沉降的概念,将Peck公式从单双孔拓展至三孔并行隧道的沉降预测;Zhou等23在Peck公式中引入水位影响修正系数,实现了对地下水位的定量化考虑;Tang等24将Peck公式用于预测小曲率隧道的最大沉降值然而,在实际工程的参数统计、经验分析及规范符合性验证中,目前仍普遍沿用经典Peck公式参数体系,故探寻一套具有可比性、可统一纳入数据库25的参数确定方法,亦具有重要的现实必要性。
鉴于Peck公式参数已成为现行规范中沉降控制的关键指标之一,合理确定跨江(河)盾构隧道引起堤防沉降的Peck公式参数显得尤为重要,其中地层损失率更是关注核心10。受限于线路选线经济性以及河岸地形,盾构隧道斜交下穿既有堤防的工况极为普遍,而垂直正交下穿反而是特例。斜交下穿包括水平面内的斜交和竖直面内的斜交,前者直观表现为隧道轴线和堤防轴线的夹角,后者直观表现为隧道轴线埋深。通常,Peck公式所考虑的地层损失率是基于与隧道走向垂直的横截面方向确定的,但若忽略平面斜交角度的影响,所得到的参数会与规范要求产生偏差26,这不仅可能导致工程质量复核中出现误判,还会降低同一地区同类工程的沉降预测精度,尽管已有学者对斜交下穿工况有所关注,但其研究大多引入多个修正参数,导致模型复杂,参数确定缺乏实测标定路径,与设计规范脱节,导致在真实斜交下穿工程中应用难度大、实用性受限19。为此,本文利用斜交坐标系与简洁的坐标变换直接修正平面斜交角度影响,通过隧道轴线埋深反映隧道坡度的影响,基本保留了经典Peck公式形式,易于在工程界推广应用。以国内最大直径水下盾构斜穿黄河大堤的济南黄岗路隧道工程为背景,结合现场实测数据,采用最小二乘回归方法确定黄河堤防济南段地层的相关参数,并开展相应的验证研究。
在 Peck 提出隧道引起的地表横向沉降槽(即图1y方向的地表变形)可用高斯分布拟合的基础上,Attewell 等27和 Rankin28总结了当时广泛应用的经验方法,并提出以下计算公式:
Sy=Smaxexp-y22i2
式中:Smax 为地面沉降的最大值,对应沉降曲线对称中心的变形;y为监测点距隧道中心线的距离;Sy)为y处的地面沉降;i为从沉降曲线对称中心到曲线拐点的距离,常称为“沉降槽宽度”,单位与y一致。O’Reilly等29提出沉降槽宽度和隧道中心深度z之间存在线性关系。因此将其比值K称为“沉降槽宽度参数”,即:
i=Kz
隧道工程中,将单位长度的地表沉降槽体积Vs占隧道开挖名义面积A的百分比定义为地层损失率η,由定义及式(1)可得η的计算表达式为:
η=VsA=Smaxi2πA
当隧道开挖面为洞径D的圆形时,AD2/4。
目前,亦有文献将横截面方向y记为x,将土体损失率η记为Vl,将单位长度的地表沉降槽体积Vs记为Vloss,仅记法存在差异,实质含义均一致。必须说明的是:Peck公式描述的是隧道开挖后形成的地面沉降,在盾构施工中,仅适用于盾尾通过监测断面后沉降趋于稳定的阶段。此外,该公式假设横截面地表位于同一水平面,且其横截面方向必须与隧道轴线垂直。
实际工程中,盾构隧道下穿堤防等重点保护对象时,两者通常呈平面斜交关系。堤防变形监测断面多沿堤防轴线(y*方向)布置,且各断面上的测点基本位于同一水平高程。由于隧道存在纵向坡度(即竖直面内的斜交),不同位置的监测断面对应着不同的隧道轴线埋深。因此,不同隧道轴线埋深直接反映了竖直面内的斜交影响,实现问题的简化。
引入与正交坐标系的y轴旋转α角的斜交坐标系xoy*(见图2),其与原坐标系相互间的转换公式为:
x=xy=y*cosα
式(4)代入式(1)得:
Sy*=Smaxexp-y*2cos2α2i2
由此可知,斜交角度会影响Peck公式中的沉降槽宽度参数i,进一步会影响沉降槽宽度参数K与地层损失率η
充分考虑实际应用中的简便性,建议采用线性回归法确定Peck公式参数。令:
Y=lnSy*, X=y*2, B=lnSmax, C=-cos2α2i2
则式(5)可转化为:
Y=B+CX
对监测得到的多个实测数据进行一元线性回归,由常用的最小二乘法可得回归系数B、C的估计值B^C^,结合式(2)(3)(6)得Peck公式参数为:
i=-cos2α2C^, K=-cos2α2C^z, η=eB^-πcos2αC^A
上述确定Peck公式参数的方法要求监测点沉降值大于零,故对监测点隆起值,可采用直接舍去的简单处理方法,另计算地层损失率需注意单位换算。此外,需开展回归方程的拟合优度检验和显著性检验、回归系数的显著性检验和残差正态性检验,以保证得到的Peck公式参数可信。
黄河以北建设新城是济南城市发展的重要方向,为助推济南从“大明湖时代”跨入“黄河时代”,济南市有多个已建、在建、待建的穿(跨)黄通道(桥隧两类)。黄岗路穿黄隧道于2022年7月开工,2025年年底贯通。工程采用单洞双层布置,泥水平衡盾构施工,隧道开挖直径为17.4 m,管片外径为16.8 m,属于内地直径最大的盾构隧道,世界最大的水下盾构隧道。隧道穿越地层主要为第四系上更新统可塑-硬塑状黏土和粉质黏土层,夹杂粉砂细颗粒含量高。隧道掘进方向与北(左)岸堤防夹角β约为64°。
根据河岸堤防特征及类似工程经验,在盾构轴线穿越北(左)岸堤防轴线两侧,沿堤防走向布设地表沉降监测点,将背水坡(淤背区)、堤顶、迎水坡设置的4道监测断面,依次记为Ⅰ-Ⅰ至Ⅳ-Ⅳ号监测断面,各横向监测断面信息见表1
地表沉降监测采用闭合水准路线法进行观测,以盾构穿越左岸堤顶中心的上下游500 m外引测附近3个国家基准点作为监测基准点,并在工程影响范围外相对稳定的位置埋设4个工作基点,与地表沉降观测桩组成闭合水准线路监测控制网,沉降观测桩选择成品不锈钢观测标,顶部为半球形,有十字丝。高程测量仪器为Leica LS水准仪,铟瓦尺对应的高程测量精度为2×10-4 m,即0.2 mm。
观测桩埋设位置对应的y*为0、±10、±30、±60和±100 m,具体埋设位置见图4。由盾构穿堤过程中各观测桩的实时高程减去盾构穿堤前起始时刻高程可得监测点地表累积沉降。
2025年2月10日,盾构隧道施工掌子面推进至距离堤顶中心线250 m 处,以此为基准将各监测点的初始高程统一设定为零值。自同年2月21日起,对各监测点开展高程持续监测,至4月30日,掌子面已推进至远离堤顶中心线640 m处。记2月21日为监测第1天,各监测点累积沉降的时程曲线如图5所示。
第1天(2月21日)盾构隧道掌子面距离堤顶48 m,除穿越堤顶中心线前后(第5—10天)有所波动外,多数监测时刻对应的日掘进速度为10 m/d。由图5可知距盾构隧道施工轴线较远的监测点,累积沉降并不明显,且可能出现隆起。由图5结合各监测断面与堤顶中心线的距离、实际施工进度知距盾构隧道施工轴线较近的监测点,累积沉降大体可分为四个阶段:早期波动阶段、快速增加阶段、慢速增加阶段、稳定收敛阶段,上述四个阶段划分原因如下:①早期波动阶段对应盾构施工掌子面尚未达到监测断面,施工引起隧道周边地层(包括前方)应力状态发生改变,应力的调整会逐渐传递到监测断面所在的区域;②当盾构施工掌子面穿越监测断面时,盾构机刀盘切削土体,破坏了原有的土体平衡,导致地表监测点的沉降迅速增加;③在盾构机盾壳通过观测断面直至盾尾脱出的过程中,周围土体会向环形隧道移动,地表累积沉降会缓慢增加,并存在一定波动;④在盾构机尾部完全脱离监测断面且经历较短时间后,堤防土体进入蠕变和次固结阶段,并受其它如地下水位、温度、上部荷载等因素的影响。综合图5所示累积沉降时程曲线,取第29天作为累积沉降稳定收敛阶段起始点,此时盾构隧道施工掌子面远离堤顶中心线236 m,远离Ⅰ-Ⅰ号监测断面256 m、Ⅱ-Ⅱ号监测断面230 m、Ⅲ-Ⅲ号监测断面230 m、Ⅳ-Ⅳ号监测断面224 m,均超过黄岗路隧道开挖盾构机长度,盾尾已完全穿越监测断面,符合稳定收敛阶段的判定。
Peck公式旨在描述隧道开挖后的地表沉降规律,对于盾构工程,该公式适用于表征盾尾通过监测断面后的累积沉降值。本文对盾构掌子面穿越北(左)岸堤防Ⅰ-Ⅰ至Ⅳ-Ⅳ号监测断面稳定收敛阶段的多日监测数据,依据式(7)进行线性回归分析,散点图及回归线见图6。为进一步验证式(7)线性关系的可靠性及最小二乘参数估计的有效性,依次开展了回归方程的拟合优度检验(R²)、总体显著性检验(F检验)、回归系数的显著性检验(t检验)以及残差的正态性检验(Shapiro‑Wilk检验)。
值得强调的是,由于监测点隆起值的舍去处理、y*的对称性及y*数值的巨大差异,图6横坐标取值情况较少。由于图6显示的是非线性回归转化为线性回归的结果,易于直观观察到的是远离盾构隧道施工轴线处的监测点数值(即较大y*位置)。另外,累积沉降值受观测精度影响,存在一定误差与波动,亦会影响回归效果。
图6可知,盾构穿越堤防监测断面后的累积沉降基本服从正态分布规律,拟合优度检验(R²)、总体显著性检验(F检验)、回归系数的显著性检验(t检验)以及残差的正态性检验(Shapiro‑Wilk检验)均表明最小二乘回归效果可接受。将得到的回归系数估计值及α=26°、AD2/4、D=17.4 m代入式(8),可求得黄河堤防济南段的Peck公式参数,结果见表2。此外,也计算了不考虑斜交角度时的参数,此时仍采用式(8)计算,但取α=0°。
表2与式(8)可知:若忽略斜交角度的影响,所确定的Peck公式参数将偏大,可能使实际符合规范要求的地层损失率控制值被误判为不符合要求。以黄岗路穿黄隧道为例,不考虑斜交角度时,黄河堤防济南段的Peck公式参数整体偏大约12%。
2021年9月通车的济泺路穿黄隧道是国内第一条穿越黄河的大型交通隧道,济泺路穿黄隧道盾构段采用双线施工方案,盾构隧道外径为15.2 m,双线盾构中心距(34.2 m)与洞径比略大于2,属近距离双线盾构隧道。在隧道穿越黄河南岸大堤处布置有4个横向监测断面,监测布置见图7。隧道掘进方向与南岸堤防夹角β为77°,平面倾斜角α为13°。记东线隧道轴线处的y*=0,则自左向右各纵向监测断面对应的y*坐标依次为:A断面y*=-217.1 m,B断面y*=-117.1 m,C断面y* =-77.1 m,D断面y* =-47.1 m,E断面y*=-32.1 m,F断面y*=-17.1 m,G断面y* =-2.1 m,H断面y* =12.9 m,I断面y*=42.9 m,J断面y*=82.9 m,K断面y*=182.9 m。
济泺路穿黄工程的东线隧道施工进度快于西线施工,假设近距离双线隧道施工,距离监测断面较远的后行隧道对先行隧道施工引起的沉降影响有限,则仍可采用式(5)描述先行隧道盾构穿堤引起的地表累积沉降分布。
将前文确定的黄河堤防济南段地层条件对应的稳定收敛阶段Peck沉降公式参数值的平均值:沉降槽宽度i与隧道轴线中心深度的比值为0.43,地层损失率η为0.31%,代入式(2)(3)(5)预测盾构西线掌子面尚未到达监测断面、盾构东线已接收时的累积沉降值,与实测的多日监测累积沉降值结果对比见图8
图8可知,尽管存在盾构西线施工的影响因素,但其预测效果仍可接受,由此进一步说明所确定参数的合理性。值得说明的是实际工程状况是极度复杂的,例如地下水位波动、隧道堤顶公路行驶车辆的循环荷载、温度变化等因素都会影响堤防后期沉降,因此每个位置处的沉降随时间均会存在一定波动,且任何理论应用于实际工况存在一定误差。考虑到提高精度,往往会丧失便捷性与普适性,故本文采用了兼顾一定精度与便捷性的简化处理。
本文基于济南黄岗路穿黄盾构隧道斜穿黄河堤防的工程实例,通过现场监测与理论分析相结合的方法,系统研究了盾构隧道与堤防平面斜交条件下Peck沉降公式参数的确定问题,得到如下结论:
(1)盾构隧道与堤防平面斜交时,斜交角度对沉降槽形态与Peck公式参数具有显著影响。忽略斜交角度会导致沉降槽宽度、宽度参数及地层损失率普遍偏高,可能在实际工程中引起沉降控制标准的误判,影响堤防安全评价。
(2)提出了一种考虑斜交角度修正的Peck公式参数确定方法,依托黄岗路穿黄隧道监测数据,确定了黄河堤防济南段地层的Peck公式参数:沉降槽宽度与隧道轴线中心深度的比值约为0.43,地层损失率约为0.31%,可供该区域后续穿堤隧道工程的沉降预测与控制参考。

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doi: 10.3724/j.slxb.20250422
  • 接收时间:2025-08-01
  • 首发时间:2026-06-25
  • 出版时间:2026-05-20
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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-01
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    1.中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室,北京 100038
    2.中国水利水电科学研究院;水利部水工程建设与安全重点实验室,北京 100038
    3.济南黄河河务局天桥黄河河务局,山东 济南 250031
    4.山东黄河勘测设计研究院有限公司,山东 济南 250013

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张延亿(1979—),博士,正高级工程师,主要从事水工建筑物性态评价研究。E-mail:
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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