Article(id=1311351152625672497, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1311351152067830064, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20242039, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1730217600000, receivedDateStr=2024-10-30, revisedDate=1744905600000, revisedDateStr=2025-04-18, acceptedDate=1745251200000, acceptedDateStr=2025-04-22, onlineDate=1790580078512, onlineDateStr=2026-09-28, pubDate=1769270400000, pubDateStr=2026-01-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1790580078512, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-09-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1790580078512, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1790580078512, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1311351152067830064, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2026', volume='44', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='246', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1769270400000', pubDateStr='2026-01-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1790580078378, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1790588459421, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1311386304772927717, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1311351152067830064, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1311386304772927718, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1311351152067830064, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1, endPage=5, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1311351152864747826, articleId=1311351152625672497, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Application Research on Fenshuijiang River Basin During Plum Rain Season Based on Xin'anjiang + Muskingum Flood Forecasting Model, columnId=null, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Addressing the issue of insufficient flood forecasting accuracy during the Meiyu period (June 18-28) in the Fenshuijiang River Basin, this paper investigates the practical application and improvement method of coupled "Xin'anjiang + Muskingum" hydrological model. Based on the observed rainfall and reservoir operation data, the evaluation of forecasting precision for peak discharge, runoff depth, and time-to-peak was conducted through relative error analysis. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing the measured values with the predicted values in combination with the deterministic coefficient (DDC). The forecast effect was optimized by correcting the runoff yield and concentration parameters of the Xin 'anjiang model and the flow routing parameters of the Muskingum model. The results show that after parameter adjustment, the peak discharge relative error is below 15%, runoff depth error is low 40%, time-to-peak deviation is within 2 hours, and DDC values exceeds 0.85; However, there is still a lag in the forecast during the concentrated period of heavy rainfall. The correction coupled model significantly enhances flood forecasting accuracy during the Meiyu season, offering reliable support for reservoir operation decisions. In the future, it is necessary to further optimize the dynamic coupling mechanism between the input of rainfall spatio-temporal distribution and the parameters of river routing parameters.

, authors=Zhao-jing ZHU1, Xiao-le FENG2, Ai-qing KANG3, authorsList=Zhao-jing ZHU, Xiao-le FENG, Ai-qing KANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Ai-qing KANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1311351153275789619, articleId=1311351152625672497, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=CN, title=基于新安江+马斯京根洪水预报模型的梅汛期分水江流域应用研究, columnId=1207627659488632924, journalTitle=水电能源科学, columnName=水文水资源与环境, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

针对分水江流域梅汛期(6月18~28日)洪水预报精度不足的问题,探讨了“新安江+马斯京根”耦合模型的实际应用效果及改进方法。基于流域实测降雨、水库调度数据,采用相对误差分析法评估洪峰流量、径流深度及峰现时间预报精度,结合确定性系数(DDC)对比实测值与预报值来验证模型的准确性,并通过修正新安江模型产汇流参数与马斯京根模型演进参数优化预报效果。结果表明,参数修正后,模型洪峰流量相对误差降至15%以内,径流深度误差小于40%,峰现时间偏差缩短至2 h内,确定性系数提升至0.85以上,但强降雨集中时段预报仍存在滞后现象。修正后的耦合模型显著提升了梅汛期预报精度,可支撑水库调度决策,未来需进一步优化降雨时空分布输入与河道演进参数的动态耦合机制。

, authors=朱兆晶1, 冯晓乐2, 康爱卿3, authorsList=朱兆晶, 冯晓乐, 康爱卿, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=康爱卿, authorNote=

朱兆晶(1997-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为智慧水利、数字孪生流域及“四预”,E-mail:

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康爱卿(1983-),男,博士、正高级工程师,研究方向为流域综合治理信息化及水系调度,E-mail:
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朱兆晶(1997-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为智慧水利、数字孪生流域及“四预”,E-mail:

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朱兆晶(1997-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为智慧水利、数字孪生流域及“四预”,E-mail:

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基于新安江+马斯京根洪水预报模型的梅汛期分水江流域应用研究
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朱兆晶 1 , 冯晓乐 2 , 康爱卿 3
水电能源科学 | 水文水资源与环境 2026,44(1): 1-5
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水电能源科学 |水文水资源与环境 2026 , 44 (1) : 1 -5
基于新安江+马斯京根洪水预报模型的梅汛期分水江流域应用研究
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朱兆晶1 , 冯晓乐2, 康爱卿3
作者信息
  • 1.北京云粒智慧科技有限公司,北京 100037
  • 2.北京合源科技有限公司,北京 100086
  • 3.中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038
通讯作者:
康爱卿(1983-),男,博士、正高级工程师,研究方向为流域综合治理信息化及水系调度,E-mail:
作者简介:

朱兆晶(1997-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为智慧水利、数字孪生流域及“四预”,E-mail:

Application Research on Fenshuijiang River Basin During Plum Rain Season Based on Xin'anjiang + Muskingum Flood Forecasting Model
Zhao-jing ZHU1 , Xiao-le FENG2, Ai-qing KANG3
Affiliations
  • 1.Yunli Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100037, China
  • 2.Beijing Heyuan Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100086, China
  • 3.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
出版时间: 2026-01-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20242039
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针对分水江流域梅汛期(6月18~28日)洪水预报精度不足的问题,探讨了“新安江+马斯京根”耦合模型的实际应用效果及改进方法。基于流域实测降雨、水库调度数据,采用相对误差分析法评估洪峰流量、径流深度及峰现时间预报精度,结合确定性系数(DDC)对比实测值与预报值来验证模型的准确性,并通过修正新安江模型产汇流参数与马斯京根模型演进参数优化预报效果。结果表明,参数修正后,模型洪峰流量相对误差降至15%以内,径流深度误差小于40%,峰现时间偏差缩短至2 h内,确定性系数提升至0.85以上,但强降雨集中时段预报仍存在滞后现象。修正后的耦合模型显著提升了梅汛期预报精度,可支撑水库调度决策,未来需进一步优化降雨时空分布输入与河道演进参数的动态耦合机制。

分水江流域  /  梅汛期  /  新安江+马斯京根模型  /  洪水预报  /  水库调度

Addressing the issue of insufficient flood forecasting accuracy during the Meiyu period (June 18-28) in the Fenshuijiang River Basin, this paper investigates the practical application and improvement method of coupled "Xin'anjiang + Muskingum" hydrological model. Based on the observed rainfall and reservoir operation data, the evaluation of forecasting precision for peak discharge, runoff depth, and time-to-peak was conducted through relative error analysis. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing the measured values with the predicted values in combination with the deterministic coefficient (DDC). The forecast effect was optimized by correcting the runoff yield and concentration parameters of the Xin 'anjiang model and the flow routing parameters of the Muskingum model. The results show that after parameter adjustment, the peak discharge relative error is below 15%, runoff depth error is low 40%, time-to-peak deviation is within 2 hours, and DDC values exceeds 0.85; However, there is still a lag in the forecast during the concentrated period of heavy rainfall. The correction coupled model significantly enhances flood forecasting accuracy during the Meiyu season, offering reliable support for reservoir operation decisions. In the future, it is necessary to further optimize the dynamic coupling mechanism between the input of rainfall spatio-temporal distribution and the parameters of river routing parameters.

Fenshuijiang River Basin  /  plum rain period  /  Xin'anjiang + Muskingum model  /  flood forecasting  /  reservoir operation
朱兆晶, 冯晓乐, 康爱卿. 基于新安江+马斯京根洪水预报模型的梅汛期分水江流域应用研究. 水电能源科学, 2026 , 44 (1) : 1 -5 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20242039
Zhao-jing ZHU, Xiao-le FENG, Ai-qing KANG. Application Research on Fenshuijiang River Basin During Plum Rain Season Based on Xin'anjiang + Muskingum Flood Forecasting Model[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2026 , 44 (1) : 1 -5 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20242039
  • 国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3006503)
  • 浙江省水利科技计划项目(RA2204)
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doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20242039
  • 接收时间:2024-10-30
  • 首发时间:2026-09-28
  • 出版时间:2026-01-25
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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-30
  • 修回日期:2025-04-18
  • 录用日期:2025-04-22
基金
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3006503)
浙江省水利科技计划项目(RA2204)
作者信息
    1.北京云粒智慧科技有限公司,北京 100037
    2.北京合源科技有限公司,北京 100086
    3.中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038

通讯作者:

康爱卿(1983-),男,博士、正高级工程师,研究方向为流域综合治理信息化及水系调度,E-mail:
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Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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