Article(id=1223278133227426043, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223278131956551924, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222254, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1666800000000, receivedDateStr=2022-10-27, revisedDate=1671379200000, revisedDateStr=2022-12-19, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769581834369, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1698163200000, pubDateStr=2023-10-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769581834369, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769581834369, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769581834369, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223278131956551924, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='10', pageStart='1', pageEnd='228', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769581834067, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769584342407, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223288652869030422, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223278131956551924, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223288652869030423, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223278131956551924, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=62, endPage=66, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223278133508444413, articleId=1223278133227426043, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Analysis of Changes and Causes of Mountain Torrent Disaster Risk in Sichuan Province in the Past 30 Years, columnId=1222925283431272938, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To explore the temporal and spatial distribution and attribution of mountain torrent disaster risk in Sichuan Province, the spatial distribution difference and high-risk areas of mountain torrent risk during 1990-2020 were studied by AHP and cluster analysis methods, and the changing characteristic and driving reason were investigated. The results show that the risk of mountain torrent disasters increased from the west to the east in Sichuan Province. High-risk areas mostly existed in areas with dense river networks and high exposure and vulnerability, such as Meishan, Zigong, Neijiang, Ziyang, Suining, Guangan and Nanchong. From 1990 to 2020, the risk of mountain torrents showed an increasing trend in Sichuan Province. The proportion of areas with high and above risk increased from 17% to 34%. Increased risk levels were concentrated in central Sichuan, and most of them were from moderately high and relatively high risk transformed into high risk. In the past 30 years, the risk of mountain torrents has shown a downward trend in Sichuan Province, while the greater GDP and population density had changed vulnerability and disaster prevention capacity, leading to increasing risk level of mountain torrents in local areas. The results can provide theoretical guidance and practical support for forecast and early warn in flood disaster and disaster prevention and mitigation in Sichuan Province.

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为探究四川省山洪灾害风险的时空分布规律及归因，采用层次分析、聚类分析等方法，研究了1990、2020年四川省山洪风险的空间分布差异与高风险重点区域，探讨了山洪风险的时间变化特征及驱动原因。结果表明，四川省山洪灾害风险由西部向东部地区逐渐增加，高风险区域多存在于河网密集，且暴露性和脆弱性较高的区域，主要集中在眉山市、自贡市、内江市、资阳市、遂宁市、广安市和南充市；1990~2020年，四川省整体山洪风险呈增加趋势，较高及以上风险区面积占比由17%增至34%，风险等级增加的区域集中在四川省中部，且大部分由中等或较高风险区转变为高风险区；近30年来，四川省的山洪危险性呈下降趋势，但较大的GDP和人口密度使其脆弱性和防灾能力发生变化，从而导致局部区域山洪风险等级有所增加。研究结果可为四川省的洪水灾害预报预警及防灾减灾工作提供理论指导和实践支撑。

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元媛（1988-），女，博士、高级工程师，研究方向为河流水沙数值模拟、工程泥沙、江湖演变与治理等，E-mail：yuanht1020@foxmail.com

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元媛（1988-），女，博士、高级工程师，研究方向为河流水沙数值模拟、工程泥沙、江湖演变与治理等，E-mail：yuanht1020@foxmail.com

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