Article(id=1223210597341315970, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223210584024400210, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20230125, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1675353600000, receivedDateStr=2023-02-03, revisedDate=1679328000000, revisedDateStr=2023-03-21, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769565732560, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1687622400000, pubDateStr=2023-06-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769565732560, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769565732560, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769565732560, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223210584024400210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='6', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769565729385, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769593153259, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223325608164348105, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223210584024400210, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223325608164348106, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223210584024400210, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=5, endPage=8, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223210598557664197, articleId=1223210597341315970, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Construction and Improvement of Clustering Model for Long-term Areal Rainfall Forecasting in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River, columnId=1222925279849341011, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGY, WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The cluster forecasting model is a long-term forecasting physical model based on mathematical statistics. This method has been applied in the long-term forecast of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. After years of practice, there is space for improvement in accuracy and efficiency of the model. This paper selected the upper reaches of the Yangtze River as the demonstration area for forecast, the monthly areal rainfall from June to August as the forecast object, and used the coincidence rate of anomaly symbol and the percentage of anomaly error as the test methods of the model. And then the construction process and improvement of the model were described. Finally, the improved model was used to forecast the monthly area rainfall in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River from June to August during 2020 to 2022. The prediction results show that the improved model has a great improvement in the anomaly sign agreement rate and the percentage of anomaly error, and it has been implemented easily, which has certain reference value.

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聚类预报模型是一种基于长系列数据分析，采用数理统计方法进行量级预报的长期预报模型，并应用于国内多个流域长期预报中。经过多年实践，模型在准确性和建模效率上还有提升空间。基于该模型原理，选取长江上游为预报示范区，6~8月逐月面雨量为预报对象，预报与均值相比偏多或偏少和量级作为该模型的检验方法，阐述聚类模型构建的流程和改进。最后利用改进前后的模型分别预测2020~2022年长江上游6~8月逐月面雨量，预测结果表明改进后的模型在距平符号一致率和距平误差百分率上有较大提升，且建模过程简单，操作性强，有一定参考价值。

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顾丽（1990-），女，工程师，研究方向为水文信息化，E-mail：1393116725@qq.com

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顾丽（1990-），女，工程师，研究方向为水文信息化，E-mail：1393116725@qq.com

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