Article(id=1223210590865310214, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223210584024400210, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221969, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1663689600000, receivedDateStr=2022-09-21, revisedDate=1667232000000, revisedDateStr=2022-11-01, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769565731015, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1687622400000, pubDateStr=2023-06-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769565731015, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769565731015, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769565731015, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223210584024400210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='6', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769565729385, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769593153259, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223325608164348105, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223210584024400210, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223325608164348106, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223210584024400210, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=49, endPage=53, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223210591288934943, articleId=1223210590865310214, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=A Reservoir Scheduling Benefit-risk Equilibrium Optimization Model Considering Runoff Uncertainty and Its Application, columnId=1222925283431272938, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Due to the uncertainty of runoff, there are certain risks when formulating hydropower station power generation plans. In this paper, the concept of spectral risk measurement in economics was introduced in reservoir dispatch to quantify risk, and a benefit-risk equilibrium optimization model was established, which can reflect the attitude of decision makers to risk through different risk aversion coefficients and confidence values according to the actual situation of the power station. Taking the Three Gorges Power Station as an example, the results show that compared with the traditional model of maximum power generation benefit, the proposed benefit-risk equilibrium optimization model can effectively reduce the risk caused by the uncertainty of inflow in hydropower stations under the condition that the loss of power generation income is extremely small.

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由于径流的不确定性，在制定水电站发电计划时会有一定的风险，因此在水库调度中引入经济学中谱风险测度的概念量化风险，建立了效益—风险均衡优化模型，可根据电站情况，通过不同的风险厌恶系数及置信度反映出决策者对风险的态度。在三峡电站的应用结果表明，与传统的发电收益最大模型相比，提出的效益—风险均衡优化模型在发电收益损失极小的条件下，可有效地降低水电站因来水的不确定性而造成的风险。

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彭静萍（1984-），女，硕士、高级工程师，研究方向为水电站运行和营销，E-mail：peng_jingping@ctg.com.cn

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彭静萍（1984-），女，硕士、高级工程师，研究方向为水电站运行和营销，E-mail：peng_jingping@ctg.com.cn

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