Article(id=1223202680068228083, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223202678788965355, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222176, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1665158400000, receivedDateStr=2022-10-08, revisedDate=1667750400000, revisedDateStr=2022-11-07, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769563844934, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1703433600000, pubDateStr=2023-12-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769563844934, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769563844934, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563844934, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223202678788965355, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='12', pageStart='1', pageEnd='228', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769563844630, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563913308, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223202966899901286, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223202678788965355, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223202966899901287, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223202678788965355, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=45, endPage=48, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223202680366023675, articleId=1223202680068228083, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Prediction of Water Cycle Health State in Zhengzhou Based on DPSIR Model and Entropy Weight Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, columnId=1222925279849341011, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGY, WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The health of the water cycle is a key factor in high-quality regional development. The prediction of water cycle health state is of great significance to the coordinated development of regional water resources system, economic and social system and ecological environment system. Taking Zhengzhou City as a typical research area, this study constructed a DPSIR model for urban water cycle health evaluation, and analyzed the evolution process of water cycle health status in Zhengzhou from 2010 to 2020 by using entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The system dynamics model and entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to predict the health status of water cycle in Zhengzhou from 2021 to 2030 under five types of comprehensive coordination type, economic development type and water resources optimization type. The results show that the health status of water cycle in Zhengzhou has been developing well in the past decade, and the indicators of per capita GDP, urbanization rate and intelligent water resources management have reached the "healthy" state. Under the five prediction scenarios, the urban water cycle reaches the state of "subhealth" or above, and under the comprehensive coordination scenario that takes into account economic development, ecological protection and water resources optimization, the water cycle health status of Zhengzhou reaches the state of " health", and this scheme is the optimal scheme. The results can provide theoretical basis and technical support for ecological protection and high quality development in Zhengzhou City.

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水循环的健康状况是区域高质量发展的关键因素。水循环健康状态预测对区域水资源系统、经济社会系统和生态环境系统协调发展具有重要意义。以郑州市为典型研究区，构建了城市水循环健康评价DPSIR模型，运用熵权模糊综合评价方法分析了郑州市2010~2020年水循环健康状况演化过程；采用系统动力学模型和熵权模糊综合评价方法预测了综合协调型、经济发展型、水资源优化型等5种类型下郑州市2021~2030年的水循环健康状态。结果表明，近10年郑州市水循环健康状况向好发展，人均GDP、城市化率、水资源管理智慧化水平等指标达到“健康”状态；5种预测情景下城市水循环均达到“亚健康”及以上状态，在兼顾经济发展、生态保护、水资源优化的综合协调型情景下郑州市水循环健康状况达到“健康”状态，该方案为最优方案。研究结果可为郑州市生态保护和高质量发展提供理论依据和技术支持。

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邱瑨豪（1995-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水资源系统分析，E-mail：418183168@qq.com

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邱瑨豪（1995-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水资源系统分析，E-mail：418183168@qq.com

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