Article(id=1223201270354264388, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221019, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1652544000000, receivedDateStr=2022-05-15, revisedDate=1662307200000, revisedDateStr=2022-09-05, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769563508831, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1690214400000, pubDateStr=2023-07-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769563508831, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769563508831, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563508831, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223201250133524577, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='7', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769563504012, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563583713, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223201584469885927, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223201584469885928, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=40, endPage=44, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223201270714974575, articleId=1223201270354264388, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Study on Water Ecological Footprint of the First Phase Project of South-to-North Water Diversion East Route Project, columnId=1223185960926564679, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGY，WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The dynamic changes of the water ecological footprint and carrying capacity of the representative cities along the first Phase Project of South-to-North Water Diversion East Route Project from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed based on the water ecological footprint and carrying capacity model. The SVR model was used to predict the water ecological condition of these cities from 2021 to 2025. The results show that the per capita water ecological footprint of Shandong displays a general uptrend, and the per capita water ecological footprint of the south section of Luoma Lake and Jiaodong Peninsula is at a high level. The per capita water ecological carrying capacity in the north of Luoma Lake and Jiaodong Peninsula shows an upward trend, while in the south of Luoma Lake and across the Yellow River, it shows a downward trend, among which the south of Luoma Lake is at a high level. The water ecological deficit or surplus of the representative cities along the line began to improve in 2013, indicating that the implementation of the project has a positive effect on the improvement of ecological environment. From 2021 to 2025, the water ecological footprint of Jiangsu section will increase and the water ecological carrying capacity will decrease. With the continuous increase of water consumption in various industries, the sustainable development of this region will face a great threat. Although the water ecological situation in Shandong section is developing well, it will continue to be in a state of water ecological deficit for a period of time, and the situation of water ecological pressure is severe.

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基于水生态足迹和承载力模型，分析了南水北调东线一期工程沿线代表城市2010~2020年间水生态足迹和承载力的动态变化趋势，并采用SVR模型预测了代表城市2021~2025年的水生态状况。结果表明，山东段的人均水生态足迹总体呈上升趋势，骆马湖以南段和胶东半岛段的人均水生态足迹处于较高水平；骆马湖以北段和胶东半岛段人均水生态承载力总体呈上升趋势，骆马湖以南和穿黄段则呈下降趋势，其中骆马湖以南段处于较高水平；沿线代表城市的水生态赤字或盈余状况皆于2013年开始好转，说明工程的实施对生态环境改善具有正向作用；在2021~2025年，江苏段总体呈水生态足迹上升、水生态承载力下降的趋势，随各行业用水量不断增加，该区域可持续发展将面临极大的威胁；山东段虽然水生态状况向好发展，但仍将持续一段时间的水生态赤字状态，水生态压力形势严峻。

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杨荣雪（1999-），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为水资源系统分析，E-mail：yrongxue@mail.bnu.edu.cn

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杨荣雪（1999-），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为水资源系统分析，E-mail：yrongxue@mail.bnu.edu.cn

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