Article(id=1223201262091485396, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20230172, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1675958400000, receivedDateStr=2023-02-10, revisedDate=1678809600000, revisedDateStr=2023-03-15, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769563506863, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1690214400000, pubDateStr=2023-07-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769563506863, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769563506863, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563506863, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223201250133524577, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='7', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769563504012, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563583713, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223201584469885927, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223201584469885928, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=75, endPage=79, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223201265505648861, articleId=1223201262091485396, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Study on Inter-station Flow Response in Short-term Operation of Jindong-Guandi Cascade Hydropower Stations, columnId=1222925283431272938, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

This paper aims at the complex flow response relationship in the short-term joint operation of Jindong-Guandi cascade hydropower stations in Yalong River basin. In order to predict the inflow response process of the Guandi hydropower station, the random forest (RF) model and support vector regression (SVR) model were combined to mine the nonlinear relationship, and compared with the traditional lag-time model and the Muskingum model. On this basis, two simulation dispatching models were established to test the applicability of each model in the short-term operation of cascade hydropower stations. The result shows that the RF-SVR model has a higher fitting ability for the flow response relationship between hydropower stations, which can reduce the errors in the formulation of short-term dispatching plan, and effectively reduce the deviation of daily generation and the risk of water level violation. The research results can provide a reference for making short-term dispatching schemes of cascade power stations under complex hydraulic connections.

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针对雅砻江流域锦东—官地梯级电站在短期联合调度中流量响应关系复杂的问题，结合随机森林（RF）模型与支持向量回归（SVR）模型对其非线性关系进行挖掘，预测官地电站的入库流量响应过程，并与传统的滞时模型与马斯京根模型进行对比。在此基础上，建立了两种模拟调度模型以检验各模型在应用于梯级水电站短期调度时的适用性。结果表明，RF-SVR模型对于电站间流量响应关系具有更高的拟合能力，可减少短期调度计划制定的误差，能有效降低日发电量偏差与水位越限风险，研究成果可为复杂水力联系下的梯级电站短期调度方案制作提供参考。

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李俊聪（1993-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水电能源系统优化调度与水利信息化，E-mail：m202074016@hust.edu.cn

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李俊聪（1993-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水电能源系统优化调度与水利信息化，E-mail：m202074016@hust.edu.cn

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