Article(id=1223201252528472161, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221739, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1661097600000, receivedDateStr=2022-08-22, revisedDate=1663776000000, revisedDateStr=2022-09-22, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769563504582, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1690214400000, pubDateStr=2023-07-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769563504582, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769563504582, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563504582, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223201250133524577, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='7', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769563504012, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563583713, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223201584469885927, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223201584469885928, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223201250133524577, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1, endPage=3, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223201252784324707, articleId=1223201252528472161, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Application of Ridge Estimation Method of Rainfall Error Based Differential Response in Flood Forecasting of Jianyang Basin, columnId=1223185960926564679, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGY，WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To improve the accuracy of areal mean rainfall data and solve the problems of instability of least square estimation in runoff error correction based on dynamic system response curve, ridge estimation of rainfall error based on differential response was introduced based on least square ridge estimation. The calculation of the Xin’anjiang model was generalized a system. The method was applied in flood forecast error correction in Jianyang basin with 37 historical floods chosen as test samples. The results indicate that the ridge estimation of rainfall error based on differential response has obvious correction effects in Jianyang basin, which can improve the accuracy and stability of flood forecasting.

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为提高面平均雨量资料的准确性，在动态系统响应曲线修正方法基础上，针对修正效果可能不稳定的问题，引入岭估计方法，基于最小二乘岭估计构建一种新修正方法。将新安江模型计算概化为一个系统，并将该方法应用于建阳流域洪水预报误差修正，对该流域37场历史洪水进行修正效果检验，进一步验证该方法在实际流域洪水预报误差修正应用的有效性。结果表明，降雨误差微分响应岭估计方法在该流域洪水预报误差修正应用效果较好，能够有效提高洪水预报精度，方法修正效果较为明显。

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杨姗姗（1990-），女，工程师，研究方向为水文物理规律模拟、水文预报，E-mail：yangss_90@163.com

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杨姗姗（1990-），女，工程师，研究方向为水文物理规律模拟、水文预报，E-mail：yangss_90@163.com

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