Article(id=1223196812308234329, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223196803663778281, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20230296, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1677686400000, receivedDateStr=2023-03-02, revisedDate=1679846400000, revisedDateStr=2023-03-27, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769562445952, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1692892800000, pubDateStr=2023-08-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769562445952, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769562445952, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769562445952, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223196803663778281, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='8', pageStart='1', pageEnd='222', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769562443888, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563793740, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223202465391166440, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223196803663778281, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223202465391166441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223196803663778281, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=143, endPage=146, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223196815219081474, articleId=1223196812308234329, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Construction Diversion System Risk Analysis for Pumped Storage Power Station Considering Extreme Rainfall, columnId=1222925283779400191, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=WATER CONSERVANCY AND HYDROPOWER ENGINEERING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To study the diversion risk of pumped storage power station construction under extreme rainfall, based on the idea of system risk analysis, the Copula-Monte Carlo method for diversion risk prediction was proposed by considering the correlation between upper and lower reservoir inflow. Joint distribution of the upper reservoir extreme rainfall and the lower reservoir flood volume was constructed to simulate the construction flood process caused by extreme rainfall. According to the characteristics of the upper and lower reservoirs diversion engineering, the risk model of the diversion system in the pumped storage power station was established to simulate the risk rate by considering hydrological and hydraulic uncertainty. Finally, a pumped storage power station under construction in southwest China was taken as an example, the results show Gumbel-Copula joint distribution fits the construction flood well in extreme rainfall cases, the diversion system risk rate is higher and more realistic when considering the correlation. It provides a reference for pumped storage power station construction diversion scheme selection and flood standard design under extreme rainfall.

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为研究极端降雨条件下抽水蓄能电站施工导流的风险，基于系统风险分析思想，考虑上下库来水之间的相关性，提出Copula-Monte Carlo导流风险预测方法，构建上库极端降雨量与下库洪量的联合分布，模拟极端降雨引发的施工洪水过程；根据上下库导流工程特点，构建了抽水蓄能电站导流系统风险模型，并考虑水文、水力不确定性随机模拟风险率；最后，以西南某在建抽水蓄能电站为例进行计算，结果表明极端降雨条件下Gumbel-Copula联合分布拟合施工洪水效果良好，考虑相关性的导流系统风险率更高，且更符合实际，为极端降雨下的抽水蓄能电站施工导流方案决策和度汛标准设计提供了参考。

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胡鑫（1996-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水电工程施工与管理，E-mail：842734907@qq.com

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胡鑫（1996-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水电工程施工与管理，E-mail：842734907@qq.com

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