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In order to effectively grasp the reactivation mechanism and deformation law of the old landslide, this paper takes the bedding old landslide in a metamorphic rock area as the engineering background and combines the deformation monitoring results to carry out the existing deformation law analysis and deformation prediction research. The result of the case analysis shows that the deformation characteristics of the resurrection body of the old landslide are significant, especially the deformation in the middle of the resurrection body. Through the deformation prediction, it is concluded that the cumulative deformation of the resurrection body will still increase, and its stability will tend to weaken. Among them, the deformation in the middle position has no trend of convergence, that is, the increase rate will also tend to increase, and its stability will weaken more, so it is very important to carry out its prevention and control.

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为有效掌握老滑坡复活机理及其变形规律,以某变质岩区顺层老滑坡为工程背景,结合变形监测结果,开展其变形规律分析及变形预测研究。分析结果表明,老滑坡复活体的变形特征显著,尤其以复活体中部变形更为突出,并经变形预测,得出复活体的累计变形仍会进一步增加,其稳定性趋于减弱,其中,中部的变形无收敛趋势,即增加速率仍趋于增大,其稳定性减弱程度相对更大,对其开展防治必要性显著。

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任文辉(1975-),男,本科、高级工程师,研究方向为土木工程施工及管理,E-mail:

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任文辉(1975-),男,本科、高级工程师,研究方向为土木工程施工及管理,E-mail:

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任文辉(1975-),男,本科、高级工程师,研究方向为土木工程施工及管理,E-mail:

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基于PFDGM(1,1)-AR模型的老滑坡变形预测研究
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任文辉
水电能源科学 | 水利水电工程 2023,41(8): 180-184
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水电能源科学 | 水利水电工程 2023, 41(8): 180-184
基于PFDGM(1,1)-AR模型的老滑坡变形预测研究
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任文辉
作者信息
  • 中国铁建投资集团有限公司,北京 100855
  • 任文辉(1975-),男,本科、高级工程师,研究方向为土木工程施工及管理,E-mail:

Study on Deformation Prediction of Old Landslides Based on PFDGM (1,1)-AR Model
Wen-hui REN
Affiliations
  • China Railway Construction Investment Group Co, Ltd, Beijing 100855, China
出版时间: 2023-08-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222641
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为有效掌握老滑坡复活机理及其变形规律,以某变质岩区顺层老滑坡为工程背景,结合变形监测结果,开展其变形规律分析及变形预测研究。分析结果表明,老滑坡复活体的变形特征显著,尤其以复活体中部变形更为突出,并经变形预测,得出复活体的累计变形仍会进一步增加,其稳定性趋于减弱,其中,中部的变形无收敛趋势,即增加速率仍趋于增大,其稳定性减弱程度相对更大,对其开展防治必要性显著。

老滑坡  /  复活机理  /  变形监测  /  稳定性  /  变形预测

In order to effectively grasp the reactivation mechanism and deformation law of the old landslide, this paper takes the bedding old landslide in a metamorphic rock area as the engineering background and combines the deformation monitoring results to carry out the existing deformation law analysis and deformation prediction research. The result of the case analysis shows that the deformation characteristics of the resurrection body of the old landslide are significant, especially the deformation in the middle of the resurrection body. Through the deformation prediction, it is concluded that the cumulative deformation of the resurrection body will still increase, and its stability will tend to weaken. Among them, the deformation in the middle position has no trend of convergence, that is, the increase rate will also tend to increase, and its stability will weaken more, so it is very important to carry out its prevention and control.

old landslide  /  revitalization mechanism  /  deformation monitoring  /  stability  /  deformation prediction
任文辉. 基于PFDGM(1,1)-AR模型的老滑坡变形预测研究. 水电能源科学, 2023 , 41 (8) : 180 -184 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222641
Wen-hui REN. Study on Deformation Prediction of Old Landslides Based on PFDGM (1,1)-AR Model[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2023 , 41 (8) : 180 -184 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222641
2023年第41卷第8期
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doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222641
  • 接收时间:2022-12-27
  • 首发时间:2026-01-28
  • 出版时间:2023-08-25
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  • 收稿日期:2022-12-27
  • 修回日期:2023-03-29
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    中国铁建投资集团有限公司,北京 100855
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/sdnykx/CN/10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222641
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
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种数
Number of
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Percentage of
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Genus
种数
Number of
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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