Article(id=1223196807925187457, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223196803663778281, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222236, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1666627200000, receivedDateStr=2022-10-25, revisedDate=1667577600000, revisedDateStr=2022-11-05, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769562444907, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1692892800000, pubDateStr=2023-08-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769562444907, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769562444907, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769562444907, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223196803663778281, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='8', pageStart='1', pageEnd='222', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769562443888, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769563793740, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223202465391166440, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223196803663778281, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223202465391166441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223196803663778281, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=10, endPage=14, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223196808642413470, articleId=1223196807925187457, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Prediction of Climate Change Trend in Six River Basins in Yunnan Province Based on CMIP6 Models, columnId=1222925279849341011, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGY, WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Based on the monthly data of precipitation and average temperature from 36 reference meteorological stations in the six basins in Yunnan Province, 11 climate models published by CMIP6 were used to simulate and predict the change process of meteorological elements in six basins. Three model integration technologies were used to improve the simulation ability and evaluate the suitability of each model and integration method. The optimal method was chosen to predict the possible trend of climate change in six basins under the scenario of SSP2-4.5 in the future. The results showed that precipitation and temperature would increase gradually in the near, middle and long term in the six basins of Yunnan Province. Precipitation might increase significantly after 2060, and temperature might increase significantly after 2050.

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基于云南省六大流域36个基准气象站降水、平均气温的逐月资料，利用CMIP6已发布的11个气候模式，模拟预估六大流域气象要素变化过程，应用3种模式集成方法提升模拟能力，评价各模式及集成方法的适宜性，选择最优方法预测六大流域在SSP2-4.5情景下未来气候变化可能的发展趋势。结果表明，预测云南省六大流域未来近、中、远期降水逐渐增多，气温逐渐升高；预测2060年后降水可能呈显著增加趋势，2050年后气温可能呈显著升高趋势。

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刘智天（1995-），男，硕士、助理工程师，研究方向为水文水资源与气候变化影响，E-mail：1435322899@qq.com

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刘智天（1995-），男，硕士、助理工程师，研究方向为水文水资源与气候变化影响，E-mail：1435322899@qq.com

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