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Aiming at the problem that the evaluation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity involves multi-factor comprehensive indicators, particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to optimize the training parameter penalty factor C and kernel parameter σ in the support vector machine model, and a water resources carrying capacity prediction model was established based on PSO-SVM. According to the index grade standard, the training set data was constructed to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Heilongjiang Province in 2017. The results show that the water resources carrying capacity index of Heilongjiang Province in 2017 is between 0.423 4 and 0.709 2. The water resources carrying capacity in some areas is at level II, the carrying capacity is weak, and there is still much room for improvement.

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针对水资源承载力评价预测涉及多因素综合指标的问题，采取粒子群算法对支持向量机模型中影响较大的训练参数惩罚因子C和核参数σ进行优化，建立了基于PSO-SVM的水资源承载力预测模型，根据指标等级标准构造训练集数据，对黑龙江省2017年水资源承载力进行评价。结果表明，黑龙江省2017年水资源承载力指数位于0.423 4~0.709 2之间，部分地区水资源承载力处于Ⅱ级，承载能力较弱，仍有较大提升空间。

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^b.Cold Groundwater Research Institute, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1223193068896113398, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1223193062822760849, authorId=1223193068661232350, language=CN, stringName=王涛, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=^{a, b}, address=^a.黑龙江大学水利电力学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080
^b.黑龙江大学寒区地下水研究所，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080, bio={"content":"

王涛（1997-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水文学与水资源工程，E-mail：1545498984@qq.com

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王涛（1997-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水文学与水资源工程，E-mail：1545498984@qq.com

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