Article(id=1223193056078316266, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223193053830169317, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20220051, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1641484800000, receivedDateStr=2022-01-07, revisedDate=1649692800000, revisedDateStr=2022-04-12, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769561550396, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1674576000000, pubDateStr=2023-01-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769561550396, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769561550396, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769561550396, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223193053830169317, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769561549861, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769567790701, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223219229885857794, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223193053830169317, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223219229885857795, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223193053830169317, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=68, endPage=72, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223193056464192240, articleId=1223193056078316266, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Calculation of Probable Maximum Flood in Changing Environment, columnId=1222925283431272938, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Under the influence of climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) change, the combined influence of multiple factors has significantly increased the difficulty of probable maximum flood (PMF) estimation. A PMF estimation framework was proposed, integrating post-processing of climate model results, probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation and future LULC change setting under climate change scenarios, impact analysis of base flow/antecedent rainfall, and similarity-based PMP spatio-temporal distribution. This new framwork was applied to the Upper Nujiang River Basin. The results show that the uncertainty of base flow/antecedent rainfall and PMP spatio-temporal distribution are important factors affecting PMF for basins, and the dual-drive of climate change and LULC change has a greater impact on PMF, and the amplitude of change increases with the degree of change.

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气候变化与下垫面变化前提下，多因素共同影响明显增加了流域可能最大洪水（PMF）估算难度。为此，提出一种集气候模式结果后处理、气候变化情景下相应可能最大暴雨（PMP）估算及土地利用/覆被变化方案设定、基流/前期影响雨量影响分析、基于相似性的PMP时空展布于一体的PMF计算模式，将其应用于怒江上游。结果表明，基流/前期影响雨量及暴雨时空分布不确定性是影响流域PMF的重要因素，气候与下垫面变化双重驱动对于PMF影响较大，且变幅随着变化程度增强而增大。

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刘甜（1990-），男，博士，研究方向为工程水文及水文气象学，E-mail：liutian_2009@126.com

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刘甜（1990-），男，博士，研究方向为工程水文及水文气象学，E-mail：liutian_2009@126.com

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