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Bidding is the main way for a hydraulic engineering contractor to obtain a project, and the level of the bid price directly affects whether the contractor can obtain its construction right. Before bidding, predicting the distribution of the bid price of the proposed hydraulic engineering can optimize the formulation of its own quotation. A global optimization Bayesian-MCMC algorithm was used to predict the Beta distribution parameters. Bidding behavior of contractor was simulated by numeric analysis. The algorithm does not need to consider the conjugate of the prior distribution and likelihood function in Bayesian estimation. The numerical simulation results show that the Bayesian-MCMC algorithm requires less data for simulation and has better prediction effect than the traditional moment estimation method.

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投标是水利工程承包商获取项目的主要途径，投标报价的高低直接影响承包商能否获取项目的承建权，投标前对拟投水利工程投标报价分布进行预测可优化己方报价制定。为此，通过全局寻优的Bayesian-MCMC算法对投标报价分布模型进行反演，并通过数值分析模拟承包商投标行为。结果表明，Bayesian-MCMC算法无需考虑贝叶斯估计中先验分布与似然函数的共轭性，且模拟所需数据更少，得到的分布稳定性好且更加精确。

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王绪民（1972-），男，博士、教授、硕导，研究方向为政策评估与工程项目管理等，E-mail：2504196373@qq.com

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王绪民（1972-），男，博士、教授、硕导，研究方向为政策评估与工程项目管理等，E-mail：2504196373@qq.com

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