Article(id=1223185969457779360, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223185958363841064, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221031, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1652630400000, receivedDateStr=2022-05-16, revisedDate=1655395200000, revisedDateStr=2022-06-17, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769559860814, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1679673600000, pubDateStr=2023-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769559860814, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769559860814, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769559860814, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223185958363841064, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769559858149, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769561242661, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223191765415477785, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223185958363841064, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223191765415477786, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223185958363841064, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=61, endPage=64, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223185971680760565, articleId=1223185969457779360, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Application of Real-time Correction Technology Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter in Basin Flood Forecasting, columnId=1222925283431272938, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting in Jinhua River basin, the basin flood forecasting model coupled with Mike 11 Nam and Mike 11 HD and the real-time correction model based on Ensemble Kalman filter were established, and the real-time correction of flood forecasting in Jinhua River basin was realized. The simulation effect of the basin flood forecasting model on the main stations in the basin is good, and the simulation accuracy of flood discharge and flood level is high. When the real-time correction model is within 10h of the forecast period, the correction effect decreases with the increase of the forecast period, and the prediction error can be effectively reduced in the early stage of the forecast period. On the whole, the established basin flood forecasting model and the real-time correction model based on Ensemble Kalman filter can meet the application requirements of flood forecasting in Jinhua River basin.

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为提高金华江流域实时洪水预报精度，建立了耦合MIKE 11 NAM与MIKE 11 HD的流域洪水预报模型和基于集合卡尔曼滤波的实时校正模型，实现了金华江流域洪水预报实时校正。流域洪水预报模型对流域内主要站点的模拟效果较好，洪水流量和洪水水位模拟精度较高；实时校正模型在预见期10 h以内，校正效果随预见期增加而降低，在预见期前期可有效降低预报误差。整体上，建立的流域洪水预报模型和基于集合卡尔曼滤波的实时校正模型能够满足金华江流域洪水预报应用要求。

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舒全英（1983-），男，高级工程师，研究方向为水利信息化，E-mail：shuquanying@qq.com

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舒全英（1983-），男，高级工程师，研究方向为水利信息化，E-mail：shuquanying@qq.com

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