Article(id=1223185959261422121, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223185958363841064, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221713, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1660665600000, receivedDateStr=2022-08-17, revisedDate=1662912000000, revisedDateStr=2022-09-12, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769559858380, onlineDateStr=2026-01-28, pubDate=1679673600000, pubDateStr=2023-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769559858380, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769559858380, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769559858380, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1223185958363841064, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769559858149, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769561242661, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1223191765415477785, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223185958363841064, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1223191765415477786, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1223185958363841064, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=57, endPage=60, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1223185959542440491, articleId=1223185959261422121, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Applicability Analysis of Reasoning Formula Method in Design Flood Calculation of Complex Hilly Landform, columnId=1222925283431272938, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to study the applicability and error sources of reasoning formula method in design flood calculation in complex hilly areas, Morris screening method was used to analyze the sensitivity of reasoning formula method parameters. The applicability of reasoning formula method in different watershed areas was analyzed by comparing with hydrological comparison method and historical flood survey results. The results show that the area average rainfall is the main error source of the reasoning formula method, and the error tends to increase with the area of the basin. The reasoning formula method can still be applied to the basin with an area of 500-1 000 km² by reasonable selection of parameters. Taking Pujiang River Basin as an example, using the traditional area rainfall calculation method (without reduction), when the control section catchment area is about 100 km², 100-500 km² and more than 500 km², the error is 5.1%-5.3%, 11.2%-16.0% and 25.2%-25.5%, respectively. When the basin area is larger than 500 km², the calculated result is only about 0.2% smaller than the historical survey data after reasonable reduction of area rainfall.

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为研究推理公式法在复杂丘陵地区设计洪水计算中的适用性和误差来源，采用Morris筛选法分析了推理公式法参数的敏感性，通过与水文比拟法、历史洪水调查等结果进行对比，分析了推理公式法在不同流域面积的适用性。结果表明，面平均雨量是推理公式法主要的误差来源，误差随流域面积增大呈增加趋势，通过合理选择参数，对于面积在500~1 000 km²的流域，推理公式法仍具有适用性；以蒲江河流域为例，采用传统面雨量计算方法（不折减），当控制断面集雨面积分别为100 km²左右、100~500 km²、大于500 km²时，误差分别为5.1%~5.3%、11.2%~16.0%、25.2%~25.5%，当流域面积大于500 km²时，通过面雨量合理折减后，计算结果比历史调查资料仅小约0.2%。

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刘春果（1992-），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为防洪减灾，E-mail：lcguowhuedu@163.com

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刘春果（1992-），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为防洪减灾，E-mail：lcguowhuedu@163.com

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