Article(id=1222940984913158381, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1222940980886626474, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222417, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1668528000000, receivedDateStr=2022-11-16, revisedDate=1676908800000, revisedDateStr=2023-02-21, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769501451948, onlineDateStr=2026-01-27, pubDate=1700841600000, pubDateStr=2023-11-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769501451948, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-27, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769501451948, creator=13041195026, updateTime=1769501451948, updator=13041195026, issue=Issue{id=1222940980886626474, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='11', pageStart='1', pageEnd='226', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769501450987, creator=13041195026, updateTime=1769501450987, updator=13041195026, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null}, startPage=10, endPage=13, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1222940985210953976, articleId=1222940984913158381, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Study on Similarity Runoff Forecasting of Longtan Hydropower Station, columnId=1222925279849341011, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGY, WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In response to the complex mechanism of runoff yield and concentration, insufficient groundwater monitoring data, and low accuracy of runoff prediction in Karst areas, a similarity prediction method that integrates physical mechanisms and data-driven approaches has been proposed. The optimal combination prediction scheme has been established for different flow magnitudes, prediction factors, and preceding affected lag-time, which can achieve adaptive matching and intelligent switching of multiple modes under different water and rain conditions. It can generate interpretable runoff prediction results. This method is applied to the runoff prediction of Longtan Hydropower Station. The results indicate that this method improves the accuracy and effective prediction period of runoff in Karst areas, which has scientific significance and practical value for ensuring the scientific scheduling and safe operation of large power plants.

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针对岩溶地区产汇流机制复杂、地下水监测资料不足、径流预报精度低等问题,提出了融合物理机制和数据驱动的相似性预测方法,建立了不同流量量级、不同预报因子、不同前期影响滞时下最优组合预报方案,可实现不同水雨情条件下多模式的自适应匹配和智能切换,可生成具有可解释性的径流预报结果,并将该方法应用于龙滩水电站径流预报中。结果表明,该方法提高了岩溶地区的径流精度和有效预见期,对保障大型电站科学调度和安全运行具有科学意义和实际价值。

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谢金记(1969-),男,高级工程师,研究方向为水电水库调度、水工技术管理,E-mail:

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谢金记(1969-),男,高级工程师,研究方向为水电水库调度、水工技术管理,E-mail:

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谢金记(1969-),男,高级工程师,研究方向为水电水库调度、水工技术管理,E-mail:

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龙滩水电站相似性径流预报研究
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谢金记 1 , 陈粉娥 1 , 杨杉 2 , 李凌燕 1 , 钟成 1 , 闻昕 2
水电能源科学 | 水文水资源与环境 2023,41(11): 10-13
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水电能源科学 | 水文水资源与环境 2023, 41(11): 10-13
龙滩水电站相似性径流预报研究
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谢金记1 , 陈粉娥1, 杨杉2, 李凌燕1, 钟成1, 闻昕2
作者信息
  • 1.广西桂冠电力股份有限公司,广西 南宁 530000
  • 2.河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京 210098
  • 谢金记(1969-),男,高级工程师,研究方向为水电水库调度、水工技术管理,E-mail:

Study on Similarity Runoff Forecasting of Longtan Hydropower Station
Jin-ji XIE1 , Fen-e CHEN1, Shan YANG2, Ling-yan LI1, Cheng ZHONG1, Xin WEN2
Affiliations
  • 1.Guangxi Guiguan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Nanning 530000, China
  • 2.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
出版时间: 2023-11-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222417
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针对岩溶地区产汇流机制复杂、地下水监测资料不足、径流预报精度低等问题,提出了融合物理机制和数据驱动的相似性预测方法,建立了不同流量量级、不同预报因子、不同前期影响滞时下最优组合预报方案,可实现不同水雨情条件下多模式的自适应匹配和智能切换,可生成具有可解释性的径流预报结果,并将该方法应用于龙滩水电站径流预报中。结果表明,该方法提高了岩溶地区的径流精度和有效预见期,对保障大型电站科学调度和安全运行具有科学意义和实际价值。

相似性识别  /  最近邻抽样  /  滚动预报  /  岩溶  /  多模式切换

In response to the complex mechanism of runoff yield and concentration, insufficient groundwater monitoring data, and low accuracy of runoff prediction in Karst areas, a similarity prediction method that integrates physical mechanisms and data-driven approaches has been proposed. The optimal combination prediction scheme has been established for different flow magnitudes, prediction factors, and preceding affected lag-time, which can achieve adaptive matching and intelligent switching of multiple modes under different water and rain conditions. It can generate interpretable runoff prediction results. This method is applied to the runoff prediction of Longtan Hydropower Station. The results indicate that this method improves the accuracy and effective prediction period of runoff in Karst areas, which has scientific significance and practical value for ensuring the scientific scheduling and safe operation of large power plants.

similarity identification  /  nearest neighbor sampling  /  rolling forecast  /  karst  /  multi-mode switching
谢金记, 陈粉娥, 杨杉, 李凌燕, 钟成, 闻昕. 龙滩水电站相似性径流预报研究. 水电能源科学, 2023 , 41 (11) : 10 -13 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222417
Jin-ji XIE, Fen-e CHEN, Shan YANG, Ling-yan LI, Cheng ZHONG, Xin WEN. Study on Similarity Runoff Forecasting of Longtan Hydropower Station[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2023 , 41 (11) : 10 -13 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222417
2023年第41卷第11期
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doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222417
  • 接收时间:2022-11-16
  • 首发时间:2026-01-27
  • 出版时间:2023-11-25
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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-16
  • 修回日期:2023-02-21
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    1.广西桂冠电力股份有限公司,广西 南宁 530000
    2.河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京 210098
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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