Article(id=1222925297108897919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1222925278838513745, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221110, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1650729600000, receivedDateStr=2022-04-24, revisedDate=1654963200000, revisedDateStr=2022-06-12, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769497711684, onlineDateStr=2026-01-27, pubDate=1677254400000, pubDateStr=2023-02-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769497711684, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-27, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769497711683, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769497711683, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1222925278838513745, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='2', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769497707328, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769497707328, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null}, startPage=74, endPage=78, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1222925297373139072, articleId=1222925297108897919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Application of Tank Model in Flood Meteorological Risk Early Warning of Small and Medium-sized Rivers, columnId=1222925283431272938, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Based on the climatic conditions and flood characteristics of the Puhe River Basin, this paper used Tank model to simulate 10 rainstorm flood processes in the basin from 2019 to 2020, constructed a conceptual rainstorm flood meteorological risk early warning model suitable for the basin, and carried out simulation and accuracy evaluation. The results show that the improved water tank model can intuitively simulate the water level change process curve of Shijiao hydrological station under different time scales and different basic water levels, reduce the uncertainty of area rainfall threshold, and the prediction accuracy is class B; Meteorological risk warning is issued level by level according to the simulation results, and the skill score and hit rate are 100%; The average early warning release time is more than 3 hours in advance, which can be substituted into the predicted precipitation to further extend the flood forecast period.

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结合蒲河流域的气候条件和洪水特性，利用Tank模型模拟了该流域2019~2020年10次暴雨洪水过程，构建了适用于该流域的概念性暴雨致洪气象风险预警模型，并进行仿真模拟和精度评定。结果表明，改进后的水箱模型能直观地模拟出石角水文站不同时间尺度、不同基础水位条件下的水位变化过程曲线，能减少面雨量阈值的不确定性，预报精度为乙等；根据模拟结果逐级发布气象风险预警，技巧评分和命中率为100%；平均预警发布时间提前3 h以上，可代入预测降水进一步延长洪水预报预见期。

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旷兰（1987-），女，工程师，研究方向为水文气象及天气预报，E-mail：616032331@qq.com

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旷兰（1987-），女，工程师，研究方向为水文气象及天气预报，E-mail：616032331@qq.com

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