Article(id=1222925285624897706, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1222925278838513745, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221394, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1657296000000, receivedDateStr=2022-07-09, revisedDate=1659974400000, revisedDateStr=2022-08-09, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769497708945, onlineDateStr=2026-01-27, pubDate=1677254400000, pubDateStr=2023-02-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769497708945, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-27, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769497708945, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769497708945, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1222925278838513745, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2023', volume='41', issue='2', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769497707328, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769497707328, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null}, startPage=19, endPage=22, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1222925285901721788, articleId=1222925285624897706, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Spatio-temporal Response of Water Level in Poyang Lake to Runoff Change of Fiver Rivers, columnId=1222925279849341011, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=HYDROLOGY, WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The water level of Poyang Lake is affected by both the Yangtze River mainstream and the Fiver Rivers (namely, Ganjiang River, Fuhe River, Xinjiang River, Raohe River and Xiushui River) in the lake basin. The runoff of the Five Rivers is the main inflow of Poyang Lake. In order to explore the temporal and spatial impact of the Five Rivers on the water level of Poyang Lake, the response of Poyang Lake level variation to the runoff change of the Five Rivers was quantitatively studied by data-driven simulation and sensitivity analysis. Firstly, the lake level prediction model was established by combining PSO-GA algorithm and support vector regression (SVR) technology. The temporal sensitivity of water level of Poyang Lake to runoff change of the Five Rivers was simulated. Then, based on this model, the spatial distribution characteristics of water level response of Poyang Lake to runoff change of the Five Rivers were studied using continuous model simulation. The results show that the most sensitive period that Poyang Lake level response to the runoff change of the Five Rivers is from May to July, especially in May. In terms of spatial distribution, water level in the middle part of Poyang Lake is most sensitive to the runoff change of the Five Rivers. For instance, based on the data in May 2010, when the runoff of the Five Rivers was increased by 40%, water level at Duchang station was averagely increased by 1.16 m within one week; Average water level increased at Xingzi station and Hukou station in the north lake area was 1.15 m and 1.03 m, respectively, and that at both Tangyin station and Kangshan station in the south lake area was 0.97 m. This study clarified the temporal and spatial response characteristics of water level of Poyang Lake to runoff of the Five Rivers, and provides scientific basis for water resources management and water projects optimization in the Poyang Lake basin.

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鄱阳湖水位受到长江干流和湖泊流域五河来水（五河分别为赣江、抚河、信江、饶河、修水）的共同影响，其中五河径流为鄱阳湖的主要来流。为探究五河来水变化对鄱阳湖水位的时空影响，结合数据驱动模拟与敏感性分析方法，定量研究了鄱阳湖水位与五河来水的响应关系。首先，结合PSO-GA算法和支持向量回归（SVR）技术建立了湖泊水位预测模型，模拟分析鄱阳湖水位与五河来水的时间响应关系；然后，基于此模型采用连续预测方法研究了鄱阳湖水位对五河来水响应的空间分布特征。结果表明，鄱阳湖水位对五河来水变化响应较强的时期在5~7月，尤以5月响应程度为甚；空间分布上，鄱阳湖湖区中部对五河来水变化的响应程度最高，以2010年5月为例，当五河来流增加40%时，都昌站水位一周内平均可抬高1.16 m，北部星子站、湖口站分别平均抬高1.15、1.03 m，南部棠荫站、康山站平均抬高0.97 m。结果明确了鄱阳湖水位对五河来水的时空响应特征，可为鄱阳湖水资源管理及流域优化调控提供科学依据。

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张培培（1990-），女，博士、助理研究员，研究方向为水利工程生态调控，E-mail：ppzhang@hhu.edu.cn

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张培培（1990-），女，博士、助理研究员，研究方向为水利工程生态调控，E-mail：ppzhang@hhu.edu.cn

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