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Article(id=1207271185373545382, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1207271180105499439, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20242190, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1732118400000, receivedDateStr=2024-11-21, revisedDate=1734969600000, revisedDateStr=2024-12-24, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1765765480607, onlineDateStr=2025-12-15, pubDate=1758729600000, pubDateStr=2025-09-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1765765480607, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-12-15, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1765765480607, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1765765480607, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1207271180105499439, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, year='2025', volume='43', issue='9', pageStart='1', pageEnd='220', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1765765479351, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1765765681303, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1207272027254247478, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1207271180105499439, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1207272027254247479, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, issueId=1207271180105499439, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=216, endPage=220, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1207271185553900462, articleId=1207271185373545382, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, language=EN, title=Research on Scheduling Rules for Cascade Hydro-Photovoltaic Complementary Systems Considering Nested Operation at Multiple Time Scales, columnId=null, journalTitle=Water Resources and Power, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

With the construction and operation of integrated clean energy bases, there is an urgent need for multi-energy joint dispatch. On the basis of cascade hydropower joint scheduling, this article embeds the risk of channel electricity curtailment as a penalty constraint, integrates the working experience of scheduling personnels with rolling ideas, and explores a method for formulating multi-time scale cascade hydro-photovoltaic complementary joint scheduling rules based on actual operation. The potential risks of power abandonment is identified in advance and control measures are proposed. By selecting the benefits of hydroelectric power generation and energy storage, as well as photovoltaic power generation, a complementary function of hydro-photovoltaic joint system is established to evaluate the scheduling rules. The proposed method has been applied to the hydro-photovoltaic complementary system of Xiaowan and Manwan on the Lancang River. The results show that the economic benefits of the hydro-photovoltaic joint system is significantly increased without significantly affecting the hydropower regulations. The idea has the feasibility of promoting the joint operation of the integrated hydro -photovoltaic energy storage and clean energy watershed base in future.

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随着清洁能源一体化基地建设投产，多能源联合调度需求迫切。在梯级水电联合调度的基础上，嵌入通道弃电风险作为惩罚约束，将调度人员工作经验与滚动思想相融合，提出一种基于实际运行的多时间尺度梯级水光互补联合调度规则制定方法，提前识别可能存在的弃电风险并提出控制措施，选用水电发电与蓄能效益、光伏发电效益构建水光联合系统互补函数对调度规则进行评价，最后将所提方法应用于澜沧江小湾—漫湾水光互补系统中。结果表明，在不显著影响水电调节作用的同时实现了水光联合系统经济效益显著增加，具备推广至未来流域水风光储清洁能源一体化基地联合运行的可行性。

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尹述红（1975-），男，高级工程师，研究方向为梯级水电站集控运行管理等，E-mail：

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尹述红（1975-），男，高级工程师，研究方向为梯级水电站集控运行管理等，E-mail：

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尹述红（1975-），男，高级工程师，研究方向为梯级水电站集控运行管理等，E-mail：

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Monthly utilization rate of manwan channel before water light complementary optimization

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场景利用率/%
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
近期495159566378798397786766
远期6265747076899194108888178
), ArticleFig(id=1207271199265080002, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

水光互补优化前各月漫湾通道利用率

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场景利用率/%
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
近期495159566378798397786766
远期6265747076899194108888178
), ArticleFig(id=1207271199353160390, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=EN, label=Tab. 2, caption=

Proposed average output of Manwan photovoltaic

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场景平均出力/104 kW
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
近期91011997787799
远期313435312924242625243129
), ArticleFig(id=1207271199462212298, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

漫湾光伏拟定平均出力

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场景平均出力/104 kW
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
近期91011997787799
远期313435312924242625243129
), ArticleFig(id=1207271199583847120, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=EN, label=Tab. 3, caption=

Monthly utilization rate of manwan channel after water light complementary optimization

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场景利用率/%
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
近期495159567778818488786766
远期626574709089929698888178
), ArticleFig(id=1207271199680316120, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

水光互补优化后各月漫湾通道利用率

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场景利用率/%
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
近期495159567778818488786766
远期626574709089929698888178
), ArticleFig(id=1207271199789368025, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=EN, label=Tab. 4, caption=

Utilization rate of Manwan channel under typical inflow conditions

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
来水条件代表年流量利用率/%
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
P=15%19551 49583858659719410112011179101100
P=25%19571 316658081638385878888987877
P=35%19641 2627577786769738589101897876
P=50%19761 188757777756977798189707473
P=65%19751 122727475697073727473727776
P=75%19561 069727475608268676868607876
P=85%19581 015676970676168687074676867
), ArticleFig(id=1207271199948751579, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

典型来水条件下漫湾通道利用率

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
来水条件代表年流量利用率/%
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
P=15%19551 49583858659719410112011179101100
P=25%19571 316658081638385878888987877
P=35%19641 2627577786769738589101897876
P=50%19761 188757777756977798189707473
P=65%19751 122727475697073727473727776
P=75%19561 069727475608268676868607876
P=85%19581 015676970676168687074676867
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Typical scenario analysis of 7-15 days

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场景1水光出力/104 kW漫湾变幅/m场景2水光出力/104 kW漫湾变幅/m场景3水光出力/104 kW漫湾变幅/m场景4水光出力/104 kW漫湾变幅/m
4月18日960.539月6日990.449月21日1030.4210月29日990.44
4月19日970.599月7日1010.529月22日1040.4910月30日990.43
4月20日1000.719月8日990.469月23日1040.4810月31日1000.51
4月21日980.639月9日990.429月24日1040.5011月1日930.47
4月22日970.599月10日1000.499月25日1030.4611月2日960.60
4月23日950.509月11日1000.479月26日1030.4411月3日970.65
4月24日990.669月12日1000.499月27日1050.5211月4日910.37
4月25日990.679月13日980.419月28日1040.5011月5日950.57
4月26日970.599月14日1000.479月29日1030.4411月6日950.58
4月27日980.619月15日990.429月30日1030.4311月7日960.61
4月28日960.52   10月1日980.4111月8日950.53
         11月9日940.53
         11月10日950.55
         11月11日950.57
         11月12日950.53
), ArticleFig(id=1207271200145883878, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

7~15日典型场景分析

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4月18日960.539月6日990.449月21日1030.4210月29日990.44
4月19日970.599月7日1010.529月22日1040.4910月30日990.43
4月20日1000.719月8日990.469月23日1040.4810月31日1000.51
4月21日980.639月9日990.429月24日1040.5011月1日930.47
4月22日970.599月10日1000.499月25日1030.4611月2日960.60
4月23日950.509月11日1000.479月26日1030.4411月3日970.65
4月24日990.669月12日1000.499月27日1050.5211月4日910.37
4月25日990.679月13日980.419月28日1040.5011月5日950.57
4月26日970.599月14日1000.479月29日1030.4411月6日950.58
4月27日980.619月15日990.429月30日1030.4311月7日960.61
4月28日960.52   10月1日980.4111月8日950.53
         11月9日940.53
         11月10日950.55
         11月11日950.57
         11月12日950.53
), ArticleFig(id=1207271201345454826, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=EN, label=Tab. 6, caption=

Benefit evaluation of scheduling rules

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项目优化前优化后
水电电量收益光伏电量收益合计收益水电电量收益光伏电量收益合计收益
1月8 0896 919.215 0088 0896 91915 008
2月7 4916 854.414 3457 4916 854345 14
3月9 9037 812.017 7159 9037 81217 715
4月9 3196 696.016 0159 3196 696015 16
5月11 0336 472.817 50613 7296 47320 202
6月13 7015 184.018 88513 7015 184885 18
7月14 5435 356.819 90014 7365 35720 093
8月14 8725 803.220 67615 2585 803061 21
9月18 6132 721.621 33515 2585 40020 658
10月13 9655 356.819 32213 9655 357322 19
11月11 3696 696.018 06511 3696 69618 065
12月11 4186 472.817 89111 4186 47317 891
年144 31772 346216 662144 23675 024219 260
), ArticleFig(id=1207271201433535213, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1205116964453384197, articleId=1207271185373545382, language=CN, label=表6, caption=

调度规则效益评价

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项目优化前优化后
水电电量收益光伏电量收益合计收益水电电量收益光伏电量收益合计收益
1月8 0896 919.215 0088 0896 91915 008
2月7 4916 854.414 3457 4916 854345 14
3月9 9037 812.017 7159 9037 81217 715
4月9 3196 696.016 0159 3196 696015 16
5月11 0336 472.817 50613 7296 47320 202
6月13 7015 184.018 88513 7015 184885 18
7月14 5435 356.819 90014 7365 35720 093
8月14 8725 803.220 67615 2585 803061 21
9月18 6132 721.621 33515 2585 40020 658
10月13 9655 356.819 32213 9655 357322 19
11月11 3696 696.018 06511 3696 69618 065
12月11 4186 472.817 89111 4186 47317 891
年144 31772 346216 662144 23675 024219 260
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考虑多时间尺度嵌套运行的梯级水光互补系统调度规则研究
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尹述红 1, 2 , 李红刚 1, 2 , 王昱倩 1, 2 , 李阳毅诚 1, 2
水电能源科学 | 水电优化调度 2025,43(9): 216-220
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水电能源科学 | 水电优化调度 2025, 43(9): 216-220
考虑多时间尺度嵌套运行的梯级水光互补系统调度规则研究
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尹述红1, 2 , 李红刚1, 2, 王昱倩1, 2, 李阳毅诚1, 2
作者信息
  • 1.华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司，云南 昆明 650204
  • 2.云南省水风光一体化工程技术创新中心，云南 昆明 650214

    • 尹述红（1975-），男，高级工程师，研究方向为梯级水电站集控运行管理等，E-mail：

Research on Scheduling Rules for Cascade Hydro-Photovoltaic Complementary Systems Considering Nested Operation at Multiple Time Scales
Shu-hong YIN1, 2 , Hong-gang LI1, 2, Yu-qian WANG1, 2, Yang-yi-cheng LI1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1.Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc., Kunming 650204, China
  • 2.Yunnan Province Water, Wind and Solar Energy Integrated Engineering Technology Innovation Center, Kunming 650214, China
出版时间: 2025-09-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20242190
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摘要
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随着清洁能源一体化基地建设投产，多能源联合调度需求迫切。在梯级水电联合调度的基础上，嵌入通道弃电风险作为惩罚约束，将调度人员工作经验与滚动思想相融合，提出一种基于实际运行的多时间尺度梯级水光互补联合调度规则制定方法，提前识别可能存在的弃电风险并提出控制措施，选用水电发电与蓄能效益、光伏发电效益构建水光联合系统互补函数对调度规则进行评价，最后将所提方法应用于澜沧江小湾—漫湾水光互补系统中。结果表明，在不显著影响水电调节作用的同时实现了水光联合系统经济效益显著增加，具备推广至未来流域水风光储清洁能源一体化基地联合运行的可行性。

多时间尺度  /  水光互补调度规则  /  澜沧江小湾、漫湾电站  /  弃电风险  /  效益评价

With the construction and operation of integrated clean energy bases, there is an urgent need for multi-energy joint dispatch. On the basis of cascade hydropower joint scheduling, this article embeds the risk of channel electricity curtailment as a penalty constraint, integrates the working experience of scheduling personnels with rolling ideas, and explores a method for formulating multi-time scale cascade hydro-photovoltaic complementary joint scheduling rules based on actual operation. The potential risks of power abandonment is identified in advance and control measures are proposed. By selecting the benefits of hydroelectric power generation and energy storage, as well as photovoltaic power generation, a complementary function of hydro-photovoltaic joint system is established to evaluate the scheduling rules. The proposed method has been applied to the hydro-photovoltaic complementary system of Xiaowan and Manwan on the Lancang River. The results show that the economic benefits of the hydro-photovoltaic joint system is significantly increased without significantly affecting the hydropower regulations. The idea has the feasibility of promoting the joint operation of the integrated hydro -photovoltaic energy storage and clean energy watershed base in future.

multiple-time scales  /  scheduling rules of hydro-photovoltaic complementary systems  /  Xiaowan and Manwan HPPs on the Lancang River  /  electricity curtailment risks  /  benefit assessment
尹述红, 李红刚, 王昱倩, 李阳毅诚. 考虑多时间尺度嵌套运行的梯级水光互补系统调度规则研究. 水电能源科学, 2025 , 43 (9) : 216 -220 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20242190
Shu-hong YIN, Hong-gang LI, Yu-qian WANG, Yang-yi-cheng LI. Research on Scheduling Rules for Cascade Hydro-Photovoltaic Complementary Systems Considering Nested Operation at Multiple Time Scales[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2025 , 43 (9) : 216 -220 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20242190
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1 引言
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双碳目标背景下，风光新能源接入流域水电联合运行大势所趋，其实质在于水电优化自身运行边界响应新能源灵活性需求[1-2]。光伏电源接入流域水电大多数场景下理论可实现装机容量比例1:1甚至更多。但在实际运行中，局部时段、局部地区已出现送出通道弃电风险，未来这一问题将愈加凸显。2022年，黄显峰等[3-4]通过建立水光互补联合优化调度模型，探讨了水光互补多尺度调度方式；朱燕梅等[5-8]探索了调度规则的制定方法，并对这些调度规则进行评价[9-10]。但上述研究主要集中在理论研究方面，而应用于工程实践存在转化难度，尚需做出更多探讨。为此，本文按照时序递进方法，挖掘水电调节能力，融合调度人员工作经验与滚动嵌套思想，提出一种多时间尺度调度规则制定方法，年分月尺度以保供和消纳风险最小为原则，将通道弃电风险作为惩罚约束嵌入；月分日尺度将月内新能源逐日波动精细化纳入建模中，优化水库逐日调度计划，并构建效益互补函数评判；最后选取澜沧江小湾电站及其下游漫湾电站水光互补系统为例验证其科学性和经济性，以期为流域清洁能源一体化基地建设运行提供技术支撑。
2 多时间尺度优化调度规则制定
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制定多时间尺度优化调度规则需遵循以下原则：①年分月尺度调度规则的制定以不改变小湾在系统中蓄丰补枯的作用为原则。②月分日尺度以通道弃电风险最小为目标。③光伏调节引起的水库库容变化在日内、最多次日平衡，允许合理弃电。
2.1 年分月尺度调度规则制定
（1）在年分月尺度，选取具有良好调节性能的水库为主体，确定其关键节点目标水位。选取调度函数作为调度规则的基本形式，以分月预测入库流量{Q1、Q2，…，Q12}作为系统前置输入，以各月末水位作为结果输出。选取一元线型函数：
式中，Xk、Yk分别为调度函数的输入、输出变量，选取水库初始库容和时段入库水量之和作为输入变量、时段末库容作为输出变量；ak、bk均为函数的基本参数；k为时段，年分月尺度以月为计算时段，k=1，2，…，12。当样本数据大于2时，不存在唯一的a、b使得所有的Y=aX+b严格成立，因此以残差Yk-（akXk+bk）的平方和最小为目标寻求可接受的一组a、b值，将当平方和函数导数为0时，Q取最小值，依次求得k月可接受的一组a、b值，此时Yk=akXk+bk中的ak、bk可认为是一组向量。对历史长系列径流过程资料进行排频处理，结合排频结果计算一组ak、bk值，将所得的大水电站水库年内各月末水位控制边界作为水电的年分月尺度优化运行调度规则。
（2）将通道弃电风险作为惩罚约束条件，本文所述弃电风险是对于整个梯级水光互补系统，以大于通道送出能力作为弃电风险的具体表述。送出通道弃电率δ=（Pw+Pl）/P表征，其中，δ为流域水光互补联合运行系统的通道弃电率；Pw为水电出力；Pl为光伏出力；P为送出通道极限，计算所得的送出通道利用率大于通道容量，即为该情况下对应的弃电风险。在年分月尺度调度规则制定方面，由于受到上游大水电站水库调节，下游调节能力较差的水电站水库全年平均可维持在高水位运行。
2.2 月分日尺度调度规则制定及弃电风险防控
（1）在月分日尺度，年分月尺度调度规则可认为是其边界。在某一月度逐日预测来水过程及光伏典型日出力过程场景下，年分月尺度调度规则形成的该月始末水位控制条件{Z1、Z2，…，Z12}可作为起始边界，通过月内日间平滑避免水光联合运行的通道弃电风险，得到的月分日水位控制过程即为该场景下水电消纳光伏的调度规则。
（2）在弃电风险防控方面，结合调度人员经验及历史长系列径流资料模拟计算判断，流域梯级水光互补联合调度系统弃电风险最大的时段为：①在于上游大水电站水库枯期大方式拉水运行、需要下游水电匹配运行且光伏出力较大时；②在于后汛期水电调节空间有限遇光伏连续大发时；③在于汛后水电尚未腾出调节空间且光伏出力逐步增加时。需针对这三个时段强化风险分析并提前执行可行的控制措施。实际运行过程中，若前序运行方式偏离制定的调度规则，则应争取在月内最多次月回正，避免偏差累积。
2.3 调度规则效益评价
分别选取水电发电与蓄能效益、光伏发电效益作为评价指标，可用EP表征：
式中，EP为流域梯级水光互补系统的总效益；Ew为水电子系统效益；El为光伏子系统效益；a、b为水电子系统和光伏子系统对应的权重；Pw，t为水电电价；Nw，t为计算时段水电平均出力；Δt为计算时段；为调度期内水电平均电价；ΔE为调度期内水电蓄能增量，蓄能减少则为负值；Pl，t为光伏电价；Nl，t为计算时间内光伏平均出力，弃电则为负值。
流域水光互补系统多时间尺度联合调度规则制定流程见图1。
3 实例应用
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以澜沧江小湾—漫湾水光互补系统为例，小湾电站装机容量420×104 kW·h，正常蓄水位1 240 m、死水位1 166 m，具有不完全多年调节性能，作为系统兜底调节电源在云南省内乃至整个南方电网系统中承担蓄丰补枯的重要调节作用；漫湾电站装机容量167×104 kW·h，正常蓄水位994 m、死水位988 m，具有季调节性能，全年平均可维持在高水位运行。假定小湾断面入库流量预测为多年平均；光伏装机容量按照近期50.3×104 kW、远期167×104 kW，根据设计资料及近三年云南光伏平均利用小时推算光伏平均出力。按照本文所制定年调度规则并进行风险分析及效益评价。
送出通道利用率见表1，通道率大于100%的部分即为对应的弃电率。结合长系列水文资料计算小湾调度规则场景集见图2，推算漫湾光伏平均出力见表2。
优化后通道利用率见表3，敏感性分析见表4。小湾水位过程见图3，漫湾平均可维持在991 m附近。
按照剩余负荷最小原则调节前后示意见图4。在漫湾水电本身难以消纳光伏或遇到光伏出力连续较大的情况时调整小湾水位进行消纳。漫湾光伏包含的阿柱田和帕岭典型出力曲线拟定参考距离较近的4个光伏场站近3年及漫湾光伏实际运行数据见图5，典型日运行见图6。
按照本文所述风险评估及防控方法，选取4、9、11月测算见图7，光伏出力连续较大场景见图8，7~15日典型场景见表5。互补前后对水电运行的影响有：①按午间水光互补出力不大于通道送出能力测算，漫湾水电夜间低谷不应长时间低负荷运行甚至空载。②小湾作为兜底调节电源运行方式受系统供需形势制约，在需要小湾连续大方式运行的情况下，漫湾日水位上涨约0.5 m，3~5 d即有弃电风险。在需要小湾连续小方式运行时，漫湾日水位变幅将增加接近1 m。③小湾断面来水每增加10%，对应的漫湾通道利用率增加约5%~10%。应适当控制小湾起调水位，留出合理调节空间。
表6为调度规则效益评价，典型日避免弃电损失见图9。由表6、图9可知，梯级水光互补联合优化调度后增加收益2 598×104元，在基本不影响漫湾水电收益的情况下，光伏收益有显著增加，说明本文所提方法在光伏装机容量占比逐渐加大的情况下具有合理经济性。
4 结论
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本文提出一种基于实际运行的多时间尺度梯级水光互补联合调度规则制定方法，并将其应用于澜沧江小湾—漫湾水光互补系统中。结果表明，在不影响水电调节作用的同时实现了水光联合系统经济效益显著增加，具备推广至流域水风光储清洁能源一体化基地运行的可行性。
基金
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  • 云南省科技人才与平台计划项目(202405AK340002)
文献
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2025年第43卷第9期
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doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20242190
  • 接收时间：2024-11-21
  • 首发时间：2025-12-15
  • 出版时间：2025-09-25
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  • 收稿日期：2024-11-21
  • 修回日期：2024-12-24
基金
云南省科技人才与平台计划项目(202405AK340002)
作者信息
    1.华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司，云南 昆明 650204
    2.云南省水风光一体化工程技术创新中心，云南 昆明 650214
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
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