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Article(id=1277255575960420375, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, issueId=1277255461552390652, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.03.023, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1763568000000, receivedDateStr=2025-11-20, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=1767024000000, acceptedDateStr=2025-12-30, onlineDate=1782451059570, onlineDateStr=2026-06-26, pubDate=1774368000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1782451059570, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-06-26, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1782451059570, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1782451059570, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1277255461552390652, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, year='2026', volume='47', issue='3', pageStart='553', pageEnd='823', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1774368000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1782451032293, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1782451557265, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1277257664249852732, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, issueId=1277255461552390652, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1277257664249852733, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, issueId=1277255461552390652, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=801, endPage=813, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1277255576262410265, articleId=1277255575960420375, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, language=EN, title=MaxEnt-based Ecological Suitability Regionalization and Cultivation Spatial Potential Prediction of Coffea arabica in Guangxi, China, columnId=1236286112713470633, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops, columnName=Post-harvest Treatment & Quality Safety, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The study on the ecological suitability regionalization for Coffea arabica in Guangxi is of great reference significance for accurate and effective utilization of ecological and environmental resources, guiding scientific site selection for planting and rational production layout planning. The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used for the modeling of 58 distribution points of C. arabica in Guangxi and 15 environmental factors, and for the prediction of the ecological suitability regionalization and spatial potential prediction in current and future climate scenario. The model's prediction results had high consistency and reliability, with the AUC of 0.937, the Kappa coefficient of 61.6%, and TSS of 0.738. Climatic limiting factors (coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality, isothermality, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter, min temperature of coldest month) played a decisive role in the ecological suitability regionalization of C. arabica in Guangxi. The southwest of Guangxi was the core concentration area for highly suitable area, and important distribution area for moderately and lowly suitable area in current. The top five of total suitable areas, in descending order, were Baise (46.20%), Chongzuo (21.97%), Fangchenggang (8.26%), Nanning (7.33%) and Yulin (6.46%) in the prefecture-level scale. The top five of highly suitable areas, in descending order, were Jingxi (149.58 km2), Xilin (109.77 km2), Napo (62.94 km2), Debao (50.78 km2) and Shangsi (47.31 km2) in the county scale. In the future climate scenario, the total suitable area showed an increasing trend, particularly suitable habitat expanding gradually from the southwest dominant suitable area toward the northeast potential area, with the core distribution areas shifting from the southwest area of Guangxi (Baise, Chongzuo, Fangchenggang and other regions) toward the northeast (Nanning area together with the central and eastern area of Guangxi).

, authors=null, authorsList=Xiaoling HAO, Zhenjun BIN, Zheyuan BIN, Qingjing CEN, Lanrong SHI, Shiqi NING, Zuzheng LU, Guibing YANG, Gao LI, Jianfeng QIN, Ganlin CHEN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Ganlin CHEN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1277255576493096987, articleId=1277255575960420375, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, language=CN, title=基于MaxEnt模型的小粒种咖啡广西适宜性区划和种植空间潜力预测, columnId=1236286112877048492, journalTitle=热带作物学报, columnName=采后处理与质量安全, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

小粒种咖啡（Coffea arabica）广西生态适宜性区划研究对于精准有效利用生态环境资源，指导科学选址种植和合理生产布局规划具有重要参考意义。基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对广西58个小粒种咖啡样本点分布数据和15个环境变量建模，筛选影响小粒种咖啡在广西分布的主要环境因素，预测当前和未来气候条件下广西小粒种咖啡的潜在适宜性区划和种植空间潜力。结果表明：模型预测结果具有较高一致性与可靠性，受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）为0.937，Kappa系数为61.6%，真正技能统计量（TSS）为0.738。气候限制因子（降水季节性变异系数、等温性、最冷季度的降水量、最冷季度的平均温度、最冷月份的最低温度）对广西小粒种咖啡生态适宜性区划起决定性作用。当前时期，桂西南是广西小粒种咖啡高适宜区的核心集中地，也是中适宜区、低适宜区的重要分布区域。地（市）级水平适宜区总面积排序前五的是百色（占46.20%）、崇左（占21.97%）、防城港（占8.26%）、南宁（占7.33%）和玉林（占6.46 %），县（区）级水平高适宜区面积排序前五的是靖西（149.58 km2）、西林（109.77 km2）、那坡（62.94 km2）、德保（50.78 km2）和上思（47.31 km2）。未来不同气候条件下，随着时间推移，总适生区面积呈逐渐增加趋势，适生环境从西南优势区向东北潜力区逐步扩增，适生区质心从广西西南部（百色、崇左、防城港等地）向东北部方向（南宁及桂中、桂东区域）转移。

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* 宾振钧（1987—）男，硕士，副研究馆员，研究方向：热带作物育种与栽培。

郝小玲（1988—），女，硕士，高级实验师，研究方向：热带作物育种与栽培；

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** 陈赶林（CHEN Ganlin），E-mail: 。
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郝小玲（1988—），女，硕士，高级实验师，研究方向：热带作物育种与栽培；

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郝小玲（1988—），女，硕士，高级实验师，研究方向：热带作物育种与栽培；

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基于MaxEnt模型的小粒种咖啡广西适宜性区划和种植空间潜力预测
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郝小玲 1 , 宾振钧 1 , 宾哲源 2 , 岑庆静 1 , 石兰蓉 1 , 宁诗琪 1 , 陆祖正 1 , 杨贵兵 1 , 李锆 5 , 覃剑峰 1 , 陈赶林 1, 3, 4, **, **
热带作物学报 | 采后处理与质量安全 2026,47(3): 801-813
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热带作物学报 |采后处理与质量安全 2026 , 47 (3) : 801 -813
基于MaxEnt模型的小粒种咖啡广西适宜性区划和种植空间潜力预测
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3.Key Laboratory of Quality and Safety Control for Subtropical Fruit and Vegetable, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanning, Guangxi 530001, China
4.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Quality and Safety Control for Subtropical Fruits, Nanning, Guangxi 530001, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1277255588702716009, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1277255575960420375, authorId=1277255586723004516, language=CN, stringName=陈赶林, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 3, 4, **, **, address=1．广西壮族自治区亚热带作物研究所，广西南宁　530001
3．农业农村部亚热带果品蔬菜质量安全控制重点实验室，广西南宁　530001
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郝小玲1, 宾振钧1, 宾哲源2, 岑庆静1, 石兰蓉1, 宁诗琪1, 陆祖正1, 杨贵兵1, 李锆5, 覃剑峰1, 陈赶林1, 3, 4, **, **
作者信息
  • 1．广西壮族自治区亚热带作物研究所，广西南宁　530001
  • 2．广西壮族自治区水果技术指导站，广西南宁　530022
  • 3．农业农村部亚热带果品蔬菜质量安全控制重点实验室，广西南宁　530001
  • 4．广西亚热带特色水果质量安全控制重点实验室，广西南宁　530001
  • 5．广西鲜友食品科技有限公司，广西百色　531508
通讯作者:
** 陈赶林（CHEN Ganlin），E-mail: 。
MaxEnt-based Ecological Suitability Regionalization and Cultivation Spatial Potential Prediction of Coffea arabica in Guangxi, China
Xiaoling HAO1, Zhenjun BIN1, Zheyuan BIN2, Qingjing CEN1, Lanrong SHI1, Shiqi NING1, Zuzheng LU1, Guibing YANG1, Gao LI5, Jianfeng QIN1, Ganlin CHEN1, 3, 4
Affiliations
  • 1.Guangxi Subtropical Crops Research Institute, Nanning, Guangxi 530001, China
  • 2.Guangxi Fruits Technology Guidance Institution, Nanning, Guangxi 530022, China
  • 3.Key Laboratory of Quality and Safety Control for Subtropical Fruit and Vegetable, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanning, Guangxi 530001, China
  • 4.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Quality and Safety Control for Subtropical Fruits, Nanning, Guangxi 530001, China
  • 5.Guangxi Xianyou Food Technology Co., Ltd., Baise, Guangxi 531508, China
出版时间: 2026-03-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.03.023
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小粒种咖啡（Coffea arabica）广西生态适宜性区划研究对于精准有效利用生态环境资源，指导科学选址种植和合理生产布局规划具有重要参考意义。基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对广西58个小粒种咖啡样本点分布数据和15个环境变量建模，筛选影响小粒种咖啡在广西分布的主要环境因素，预测当前和未来气候条件下广西小粒种咖啡的潜在适宜性区划和种植空间潜力。结果表明：模型预测结果具有较高一致性与可靠性，受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）为0.937，Kappa系数为61.6%，真正技能统计量（TSS）为0.738。气候限制因子（降水季节性变异系数、等温性、最冷季度的降水量、最冷季度的平均温度、最冷月份的最低温度）对广西小粒种咖啡生态适宜性区划起决定性作用。当前时期，桂西南是广西小粒种咖啡高适宜区的核心集中地，也是中适宜区、低适宜区的重要分布区域。地（市）级水平适宜区总面积排序前五的是百色（占46.20%）、崇左（占21.97%）、防城港（占8.26%）、南宁（占7.33%）和玉林（占6.46 %），县（区）级水平高适宜区面积排序前五的是靖西（149.58 km2）、西林（109.77 km2）、那坡（62.94 km2）、德保（50.78 km2）和上思（47.31 km2）。未来不同气候条件下，随着时间推移，总适生区面积呈逐渐增加趋势，适生环境从西南优势区向东北潜力区逐步扩增，适生区质心从广西西南部（百色、崇左、防城港等地）向东北部方向（南宁及桂中、桂东区域）转移。

广西  /  小粒种咖啡  /  MaxEnt  /  适宜性区划

The study on the ecological suitability regionalization for Coffea arabica in Guangxi is of great reference significance for accurate and effective utilization of ecological and environmental resources, guiding scientific site selection for planting and rational production layout planning. The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used for the modeling of 58 distribution points of C. arabica in Guangxi and 15 environmental factors, and for the prediction of the ecological suitability regionalization and spatial potential prediction in current and future climate scenario. The model's prediction results had high consistency and reliability, with the AUC of 0.937, the Kappa coefficient of 61.6%, and TSS of 0.738. Climatic limiting factors (coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality, isothermality, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter, min temperature of coldest month) played a decisive role in the ecological suitability regionalization of C. arabica in Guangxi. The southwest of Guangxi was the core concentration area for highly suitable area, and important distribution area for moderately and lowly suitable area in current. The top five of total suitable areas, in descending order, were Baise (46.20%), Chongzuo (21.97%), Fangchenggang (8.26%), Nanning (7.33%) and Yulin (6.46%) in the prefecture-level scale. The top five of highly suitable areas, in descending order, were Jingxi (149.58 km2), Xilin (109.77 km2), Napo (62.94 km2), Debao (50.78 km2) and Shangsi (47.31 km2) in the county scale. In the future climate scenario, the total suitable area showed an increasing trend, particularly suitable habitat expanding gradually from the southwest dominant suitable area toward the northeast potential area, with the core distribution areas shifting from the southwest area of Guangxi (Baise, Chongzuo, Fangchenggang and other regions) toward the northeast (Nanning area together with the central and eastern area of Guangxi).

Guangxi  /  Coffea arabica  /  MaxEnt  /  suitable habitat
郝小玲, 宾振钧, 宾哲源, 岑庆静, 石兰蓉, 宁诗琪, 陆祖正, 杨贵兵, 李锆, 覃剑峰, 陈赶林. 基于MaxEnt模型的小粒种咖啡广西适宜性区划和种植空间潜力预测. 热带作物学报, 2026 , 47 (3) : 801 -813 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.03.023
Xiaoling HAO, Zhenjun BIN, Zheyuan BIN, Qingjing CEN, Lanrong SHI, Shiqi NING, Zuzheng LU, Guibing YANG, Gao LI, Jianfeng QIN, Ganlin CHEN. MaxEnt-based Ecological Suitability Regionalization and Cultivation Spatial Potential Prediction of Coffea arabica in Guangxi, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops, 2026 , 47 (3) : 801 -813 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.03.023
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  • 广西重点研发计划项目(桂科农AB2506910046)
  • 广西壮族自治区农业科学院基本科研业务费与科技发展基金项目(2025YP131; 2026YT018)
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2026年第47卷第3期
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.03.023
  • 接收时间：2025-11-20
  • 首发时间：2026-06-26
  • 出版时间：2026-03-25
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  • 收稿日期：2025-11-20
  • 录用日期：2025-12-30
基金
广西重点研发计划项目(桂科农AB2506910046)
广西壮族自治区农业科学院基本科研业务费与科技发展基金项目(2025YP131; 2026YT018)
作者信息
    1．广西壮族自治区亚热带作物研究所，广西南宁　530001
    2．广西壮族自治区水果技术指导站，广西南宁　530022
    3．农业农村部亚热带果品蔬菜质量安全控制重点实验室，广西南宁　530001
    4．广西亚热带特色水果质量安全控制重点实验室，广西南宁　530001
    5．广西鲜友食品科技有限公司，广西百色　531508

通讯作者:

** 陈赶林（CHEN Ganlin），E-mail: 。
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/rdzwxb/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.03.023
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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