热带作物学报

融合MaxEnt模型与博弈赋权的三亚市芒果种植适宜性评价研究

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李振宇 ¹^,²^,³ , 马艺文 ¹^,² , 禹萱 ¹^,² , 罗红霞 ¹^,² , 叶剑秋 ¹^,²^,^* , 赵忠贺 ⁴ , 陈刚 ¹^,² , 李汉棠 ¹^,²

热带作物学报 | 农业生态与环境保护 2026,47(1): 269-280

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热带作物学报 |农业生态与环境保护 2026 , 47 (1) : 269 -280

融合MaxEnt模型与博弈赋权的三亚市芒果种植适宜性评价研究

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李振宇¹^,²^,³, 马艺文¹^,², 禹萱¹^,², 罗红霞¹^,², 叶剑秋¹^,²^,^*, 赵忠贺⁴, 陈刚¹^,², 李汉棠¹^,²

作者信息

^1.中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所/海南省热带作物信息技术应用研究重点实验室，海南海口　571101

^2.海南省唐华俊院士工作站，海南海口　571101

^3.海南省土地学会，海南海口　571132

^4.中国农业科学院农业信息研究所，北京　100081

通讯作者:

^* 叶剑秋（YE Jianqiu），E-mail: yejianqiu2006@126.com。

Mango Cultivation Suitability Assessment in Sanya City Based on MaxEnt Model and Game Theory Weighting Integration

Zhenyu LI¹^,²^,³, Yiwen MA¹^,², Xuan YU¹^,², Hongxia LUO¹^,², Jianqiu YE¹^,²^,^*, Zhonghe ZHAO⁴, Gang CHEN¹^,², Hantang LI¹^,²

Affiliations

^1.Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences / Key Laboratory of Applied Research on Tropical Crop Information Technology of Hainan Province, Haikou, Hainan 571101, China

^2.Hainan Tang Huajun Academician Workstation, Haikou, Hainan 571101, China

^3.Hainan Land Science Society, Haikou, Hainan 571132, China

^4.Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

出版时间: 2026-01-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.01.025

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芒果是我国热带地区种植面积最广、经济效益最为显著的果树之一，在优化农业结构和推动乡村振兴中具有重要作用。科学划定芒果种植适宜区，对于实现资源精准配置与促进产业高质量发展具有重要意义。然而，现有研究多侧重于气候与地形因素，对土壤理化性质的系统考虑不足，且适宜性评价过程中仍存在指标选取主观性强、方法集成度低等问题。针对上述不足，本研究以三亚市为研究区，构建芒果种植适宜性综合评价模型。首先利用MaxEnt模型识别关键环境因子，并提取响应曲线构建隶属度函数；其次，结合改进的三尺度层次分析法（3-scale AHP）与熵权法分别确定主客观权重，并通过博弈论模型进行融合加权；最后，基于综合适宜性指数将研究区划分为三类种植区，并通过实地调查进行验证。结果显示：（1）容重、pH、阳离子交换量（CEC）、粉粒含量、全钾、土壤类型、坡度、海拔、成熟采收期日照时数与年均最高温共10项因子为主导指标，其中土壤因子在模型中占据重要地位；（2）适宜区面积为117 939 hm²，占全市总面积的61%，优势区主要集中在崖州区南部和天涯区南部等地；（3）优势区具备“低海拔–弱酸性–富钾–通透性强–高日照”特征，有利于实现芒果优质稳产。本研究构建的“因子筛选–隶属函数构建–博弈加权–适宜性区划”综合评价框架，可为热带果树精准种植与区域农业空间布局优化提供理论支撑与方法参考。

关键词

芒果 / 种植适宜性评价 / MaxEnt模型 / 博弈加权 / 三亚市

Abstract

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Mango is one of the most widely cultivated and economically significant fruit trees in tropical regions of China, playing a vital role in optimizing agricultural structure and promoting rural revitalization. Scientifically delineating suitable planting zones for mango is essential for precise resource allocation and the high-quality development of the industry. However, most existing studies focus on climatic and topographic factors, with insufficient systematic consideration of soil physicochemical properties. In addition, current suitability evaluations often suffer from strong subjectivity in indicator selection and low integration of evaluation methods. To address these gaps, this study took Sanya city as the research area and developed a comprehensive evaluation model for mango planting suitability. First, the MaxEnt model was employed to identify key environmental factors and extract response curves for constructing membership functions. Second, an improved three-scale Analytic Hierarchy Process (3-scale AHP) and the entropy weight method were applied to determine subjective and objective weights, respectively, which were then integrated using a game theory-based weighting approach. Finally, the study area was classified into three planting suitability zones based on a comprehensive suitability index, and field surveys were conducted for validation. Bulk density, pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), silt content, total potassium, soil type, slope, elevation, sunshine hours during the fruit maturity and harvest period, and annual maximum temperature were the ten dominant factors, with soil-related variables playing a critical role in the model. The suitable area covered 117 939 hm², accounting for 61% of Sanya's total area, with the most advantageous zones concentrated in southern Yazhou and southern Tianya. Advantageous zones were characterized by "low elevation–slightly acidic–potassium-rich–high permeability–high sunshine" conditions, which are conducive to high and stable mango yields with premium quality. The "factor selection–membership function construction–game theory-based weighting–suitability zoning" evaluation framework proposed in this study would provide both theoretical and methodological support for precision planting of tropical fruit trees and the optimization of regional agricultural spatial layouts.

Key words

mango / cultivation suitability assessment / MaxEnt model / Game Theory Weighting / Sanya city

引用本文

李振宇, 马艺文, 禹萱, 罗红霞, 叶剑秋, 赵忠贺, 陈刚, 李汉棠. 融合MaxEnt模型与博弈赋权的三亚市芒果种植适宜性评价研究. 热带作物学报, 2026 , 47 (1) : 269 -280 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.01.025

Zhenyu LI, Yiwen MA, Xuan YU, Hongxia LUO, Jianqiu YE, Zhonghe ZHAO, Gang CHEN, Hantang LI. Mango Cultivation Suitability Assessment in Sanya City Based on MaxEnt Model and Game Theory Weighting Integration[J]. Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops, 2026 , 47 (1) : 269 -280 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.01.025

基金

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海南省土地学会开放课题(HNLSSH(2024)-06)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(1630072024017)
中国热带农业科学院科技支撑县域农业产业项目(KJZCCY2025001)

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2026年第47卷第1期

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文章信息

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.01.025

接收时间：2025-07-31
首发时间：2026-06-26
出版时间：2026-01-25

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收稿日期：2025-07-31
录用日期：2025-09-25

基金

海南省土地学会开放课题(HNLSSH(2024)-06)

中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(1630072024017)

中国热带农业科学院科技支撑县域农业产业项目(KJZCCY2025001)

作者信息

^1.中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所/海南省热带作物信息技术应用研究重点实验室，海南海口　571101

^2.海南省唐华俊院士工作站，海南海口　571101

^3.海南省土地学会，海南海口　571132

^4.中国农业科学院农业信息研究所，北京　100081

通讯作者:

^* 叶剑秋（YE Jianqiu），E-mail: yejianqiu2006@126.com。

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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/rdzwxb/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.01.025

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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