Article(id=1276530337861731049, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, issueId=1276530095770693736, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2025.07.019, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1736265600000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-08, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=1742659200000, acceptedDateStr=2025-03-23, onlineDate=1782278149333, onlineDateStr=2026-06-24, pubDate=1753372800000, pubDateStr=2025-07-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1782278149333, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-06-24, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1782278149333, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1782278149333, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1276530095770693736, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, year='2025', volume='46', issue='7', pageStart='1533', pageEnd='1784', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1753372800000', pubDateStr='2025-07-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1782278091614, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1782299002258, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1276617801443971243, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, issueId=1276530095770693736, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1276617801448165548, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, issueId=1276530095770693736, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1724, endPage=1732, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1276530338167915243, articleId=1276530337861731049, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, language=EN, title=Airborne Spore Dispersal Pathways and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Erysiphe quercicola in Hainan Island Based on the HYSPLIT Model, columnId=1236292524264968282, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops, columnName=Plant Protection & Bio-safety, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Rubber tree is one of the “Three Trees” of Hainan, and it is cultivated in several cities and counties across the island. Rubber tree powdery mildew is a typical airborne fungal disease that occurs annually, severely affecting rubber yield and tree health. This study analyzed the potential airborne dispersal pathways of rubber tree powdery mildew spores from February 1, 2021, to March 31, 2023, with a focus on Baoting as the starting point for spore diffusion. Using the Lagrangian Hybrid Single-Particle Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, airflow trajectories at various altitudes were simulated, and trajectory clustering analysis was performed with TrajStat software and the MeteoInfoMap platform to identify representative air mass transport paths. Results indicated that Baoting was the earliest outbreak area of rubber tree powdery mildew in Hainan, where airflows predominantly spreaded southwestward and northwestward, covering neighboring regions such as Sanya, Ledong and Wuzhishan. This suggests that spore dispersal via airflow may accelerate disease progression in the areas. Additionally, the study found that the spatiotemporal dynamics of spore spread primarily occurred from January to April each year, coinciding with the spring temperature and humidity conditions in Hainan and the phenological stages of rubber trees. The average budburst and disease onset times in Baoting preceded those in other regions, further the importance of Baoting as an early monitoring and warning site for powdery mildew in rubber trees. In conclusion, this study reveals the regional spatiotemporal transmission patterns of powdery mildew spores in Hainan island through the simulation and analysis of airborne spore dispersal from Baoting. The findings would provide scientific evidence and technical support for the formulation of targeted regional control measures, contributing to the effective management of powdery mildew and the stable development of Hainan’s rubber industry.

, authors=null, authorsList=Shaoyao ZHOU, Jiazheng ZHU, Yu ZHANG, Ye YANG, Xiaoyu LIANG, Meng WANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xiaoyu LIANG, Meng WANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1276530341137482491, articleId=1276530337861731049, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, language=CN, title=基于HYSPLIT模型的海南岛橡胶树白粉菌孢子气流传播路径与时空动态, columnId=1236292524520820846, journalTitle=热带作物学报, columnName=植物保护与生物安全, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

橡胶树是海南的“三棵树”之一,全岛多个市(县)均有种植。橡胶树白粉病是典型气传性真菌病害,每年均有发生,严重影响橡胶产量和树体健康。本研究以保亭黎族苗族自治县(以下简称为“保亭县”)为孢子扩散起点,分析2021年2月1日至2023年3月31日期间橡胶树白粉菌(Erysiphe quercicola)孢子可能随气流的传播路径。通过拉格朗日混合型单粒子轨迹(HYSPLIT)模型模拟不同高度下的气流轨迹,并结合TrajStat软件和MeteoInfoMap平台进行轨迹聚类分析,确定具有代表性的气团传输路径。结果表明:保亭县是海南省橡胶树白粉病最早发生的地区,该地区气流主要向西南和西北方向传播,轨迹覆盖三亚、乐东、五指山等周边地区,白粉菌孢子可能会通过气流传播加速这些地区的病情发展。此外,研究发现橡胶树白粉菌孢子的扩散动态主要集中于每年的1—4月,该时期与海南岛春季的温湿度条件和橡胶树的物候期密切相关。保亭县橡胶树的平均古铜期和白粉病发病起始时间均早于其他地区,进一步凸显了该地区作为橡胶树白粉病早期监测预警关键区的重要性。综上所述,本研究通过模拟和分析保亭县白粉病菌孢子可能的气流传播路径,揭示了白粉病菌孢子在海南岛的区域时空传输规律。研究结果为制定区域性橡胶树白粉病防控策略提供科学依据和技术支撑,从而有效遏制病害扩散,保障海南省橡胶产业的稳定发展。

, authors=

周绍尧(1999—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:橡胶树病害综合防控。

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* 梁晓宇(LIANG Xiaoyu),E-mail:
王萌(WANG Meng),E-mail:
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2.海南大学热带农林学院,海南儋州 571737, bio={"content":"

周绍尧(1999—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:橡胶树病害综合防控。

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周绍尧(1999—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:橡胶树病害综合防控。

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(in Chinese), articleTitle=Population genetic diversity and trajectory analysis of Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici in north wheat region, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1276530350755021632, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, awardId=32460644, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金项目(32460644), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1276530350813741889, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, awardId=KJRC2023C43, language=CN, fundingSource=海南省科技人才创新项目(KJRC2023C43), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1276530350872462146, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, awardId=2024YFD1400603, language=CN, fundingSource=国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFD1400603), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1276530341355586301, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, xref=1., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1276530341368169214, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, companyId=1276530341355586301, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.Sanya Institute of Breeding and Multiplication, Hainan University, Sanya, Hainan 572024, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1276530341372363519, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, companyId=1276530341355586301, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.海南大学三亚南繁研究院,海南三亚 572024)]), AuthorCompany(id=1276530341443666688, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, xref=2., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1276530341456249601, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, companyId=1276530341443666688, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.School of Tropical Agriculture and Forestry, Hainan University, Danzhou, Hainan 571737, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1276530341464638210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, companyId=1276530341443666688, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.海南大学热带农林学院,海南儋州 571737)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1276530348271993650, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=EN, label=Fig. 1, caption=Burkard spore capture system, figureFileSmall=HRWQt7gR+fkQRDeC2dQ5oA==, figureFileBig=/VLqcgyc5bp+kAv1/LwOZw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530349760971571, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=CN, label=图1, caption=Burkard孢子捕捉系统

A:孢子捕捉仪;B:多维环境气象监测仪。

, figureFileSmall=HRWQt7gR+fkQRDeC2dQ5oA==, figureFileBig=/VLqcgyc5bp+kAv1/LwOZw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530349924549428, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=Disease monitoring network in rubber tree planting areas of Hainan, figureFileSmall=WV8+pVjzRBxUmBdWM9BIXg==, figureFileBig=kxkgQ9TPMzx51RSRTfZXWw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350000046901, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=CN, label=图2, caption=海南岛橡胶树种植区病害监测网络

坐标点代表监测点所在市(县),数字代表监测点数量,红色坐标点代表孢子捕捉系统放置位置。

, figureFileSmall=WV8+pVjzRBxUmBdWM9BIXg==, figureFileBig=kxkgQ9TPMzx51RSRTfZXWw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350058767158, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=EN, label=Fig. 3, caption=Annual spore density of Erysiphe quercicola and temperature-humidity data in Baoting from 2021 to 2023, figureFileSmall=9bpOB1j8F6zz5ELlt97ibQ==, figureFileBig=B/p2Qt0YKStVLnfVRJb5hQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350113293111, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=CN, label=图3, caption=2021—2023年保亭县橡胶树白粉菌周年孢子密度与温湿度数据

红色虚线代表25 ℃阈值,浅蓝色虚线代表90%相对湿度阈值。

, figureFileSmall=9bpOB1j8F6zz5ELlt97ibQ==, figureFileBig=B/p2Qt0YKStVLnfVRJb5hQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350197179192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=EN, label=Fig. 4, caption=Forward airflow trajectory simulations at different altitudes with Baoting as central point from 2021 to 2023, figureFileSmall=+kRzYbY0HP8D8Qkmf/MiLw==, figureFileBig=Ex1wj9oBC/LrAg9etaPkUQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350276870969, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=CN, label=图4, caption=2021—2023年以保亭县为中心点的不同高度前向气流轨迹模拟

线条代表气流轨迹的聚类线,数字代表气流轨迹的传输百分比。

, figureFileSmall=+kRzYbY0HP8D8Qkmf/MiLw==, figureFileBig=Ex1wj9oBC/LrAg9etaPkUQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350335591226, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=EN, label=Fig. 5, caption=Backward airflow trajectory simulations in different rubber planting areas in Hainan island from 2021 to 2023, figureFileSmall=4UUTixJHB2bNUzEeLFxCyw==, figureFileBig=NxwNR/moHMgcuyqw0aGUYQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350394311483, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=CN, label=图5, caption=2021—2023年海南岛不同植胶区的后向气流轨迹模拟

黑色点代表后向气流轨迹起始点,线条代表气流轨迹的聚类线,数字代表气流轨迹的传输百分比。

, figureFileSmall=4UUTixJHB2bNUzEeLFxCyw==, figureFileBig=NxwNR/moHMgcuyqw0aGUYQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350457226044, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=EN, label=Fig. 6, caption=Dates of powdery mildew and leaf at brown stage in major rubber planting areas of Hainan from 2021 to 2023, figureFileSmall=ZxQIZErNp21N6OKDhPRxRQ==, figureFileBig=PvbZW72jPLYvnjqxp0Vt5g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350520140605, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=CN, label=图6, caption=2021—2023年海南主要植胶区橡胶白粉病和古铜期起始时间, figureFileSmall=ZxQIZErNp21N6OKDhPRxRQ==, figureFileBig=PvbZW72jPLYvnjqxp0Vt5g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1276530350591443774, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1235980609244409860, articleId=1276530337861731049, language=EN, label=Fig. 7, caption=Powdery mildew disease index in major rubber planting areas of Hainan 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基于HYSPLIT模型的海南岛橡胶树白粉菌孢子气流传播路径与时空动态
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周绍尧 1, 2 , 朱家正 1, 2 , 张宇 1, 2 , 杨叶 1, 2 , 梁晓宇 1, 2, * , 王萌 1, 2, *
热带作物学报 | 植物保护与生物安全 2025,46(7): 1724-1732
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热带作物学报 |植物保护与生物安全 2025 , 46 (7) : 1724 -1732
基于HYSPLIT模型的海南岛橡胶树白粉菌孢子气流传播路径与时空动态
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周绍尧(1999—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:橡胶树病害综合防控。

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周绍尧1, 2, 朱家正1, 2, 张宇1, 2, 杨叶1, 2, 梁晓宇1, 2, * , 王萌1, 2, *
作者信息
  • 1.海南大学三亚南繁研究院,海南三亚 572024
  • 2.海南大学热带农林学院,海南儋州 571737
通讯作者:
* 梁晓宇(LIANG Xiaoyu),E-mail:
王萌(WANG Meng),E-mail:
Airborne Spore Dispersal Pathways and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Erysiphe quercicola in Hainan Island Based on the HYSPLIT Model
Shaoyao ZHOU1, 2, Jiazheng ZHU1, 2, Yu ZHANG1, 2, Ye YANG1, 2, Xiaoyu LIANG1, 2, * , Meng WANG1, 2, *
Affiliations
  • 1.Sanya Institute of Breeding and Multiplication, Hainan University, Sanya, Hainan 572024, China
  • 2.School of Tropical Agriculture and Forestry, Hainan University, Danzhou, Hainan 571737, China
出版时间: 2025-07-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2025.07.019
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橡胶树是海南的“三棵树”之一,全岛多个市(县)均有种植。橡胶树白粉病是典型气传性真菌病害,每年均有发生,严重影响橡胶产量和树体健康。本研究以保亭黎族苗族自治县(以下简称为“保亭县”)为孢子扩散起点,分析2021年2月1日至2023年3月31日期间橡胶树白粉菌(Erysiphe quercicola)孢子可能随气流的传播路径。通过拉格朗日混合型单粒子轨迹(HYSPLIT)模型模拟不同高度下的气流轨迹,并结合TrajStat软件和MeteoInfoMap平台进行轨迹聚类分析,确定具有代表性的气团传输路径。结果表明:保亭县是海南省橡胶树白粉病最早发生的地区,该地区气流主要向西南和西北方向传播,轨迹覆盖三亚、乐东、五指山等周边地区,白粉菌孢子可能会通过气流传播加速这些地区的病情发展。此外,研究发现橡胶树白粉菌孢子的扩散动态主要集中于每年的1—4月,该时期与海南岛春季的温湿度条件和橡胶树的物候期密切相关。保亭县橡胶树的平均古铜期和白粉病发病起始时间均早于其他地区,进一步凸显了该地区作为橡胶树白粉病早期监测预警关键区的重要性。综上所述,本研究通过模拟和分析保亭县白粉病菌孢子可能的气流传播路径,揭示了白粉病菌孢子在海南岛的区域时空传输规律。研究结果为制定区域性橡胶树白粉病防控策略提供科学依据和技术支撑,从而有效遏制病害扩散,保障海南省橡胶产业的稳定发展。

橡胶树白粉病  /  孢子传播  /  HYSPLIT模型  /  气流传输路径  /  时空动态

Rubber tree is one of the “Three Trees” of Hainan, and it is cultivated in several cities and counties across the island. Rubber tree powdery mildew is a typical airborne fungal disease that occurs annually, severely affecting rubber yield and tree health. This study analyzed the potential airborne dispersal pathways of rubber tree powdery mildew spores from February 1, 2021, to March 31, 2023, with a focus on Baoting as the starting point for spore diffusion. Using the Lagrangian Hybrid Single-Particle Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, airflow trajectories at various altitudes were simulated, and trajectory clustering analysis was performed with TrajStat software and the MeteoInfoMap platform to identify representative air mass transport paths. Results indicated that Baoting was the earliest outbreak area of rubber tree powdery mildew in Hainan, where airflows predominantly spreaded southwestward and northwestward, covering neighboring regions such as Sanya, Ledong and Wuzhishan. This suggests that spore dispersal via airflow may accelerate disease progression in the areas. Additionally, the study found that the spatiotemporal dynamics of spore spread primarily occurred from January to April each year, coinciding with the spring temperature and humidity conditions in Hainan and the phenological stages of rubber trees. The average budburst and disease onset times in Baoting preceded those in other regions, further the importance of Baoting as an early monitoring and warning site for powdery mildew in rubber trees. In conclusion, this study reveals the regional spatiotemporal transmission patterns of powdery mildew spores in Hainan island through the simulation and analysis of airborne spore dispersal from Baoting. The findings would provide scientific evidence and technical support for the formulation of targeted regional control measures, contributing to the effective management of powdery mildew and the stable development of Hainan’s rubber industry.

rubber tree powdery mildew  /  spore dispersal  /  HYSPLIT model  /  airflow transmission pathways  /  spatiotemporal dynamics
周绍尧, 朱家正, 张宇, 杨叶, 梁晓宇, 王萌. 基于HYSPLIT模型的海南岛橡胶树白粉菌孢子气流传播路径与时空动态. 热带作物学报, 2025 , 46 (7) : 1724 -1732 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2025.07.019
Shaoyao ZHOU, Jiazheng ZHU, Yu ZHANG, Ye YANG, Xiaoyu LIANG, Meng WANG. Airborne Spore Dispersal Pathways and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Erysiphe quercicola in Hainan Island Based on the HYSPLIT Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops, 2025 , 46 (7) : 1724 -1732 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2025.07.019
橡胶树在中国南部地区具有重要的经济价值,广泛分布于海南、云南和广东等地[1]。根据天然橡胶生产国协会(ANRPC)提供的数据,中国的橡胶产量在全球排名第五,总产量达85万t,其中海南岛的橡胶产量约占全国总产量的41%,对我国橡胶工业的发展作出了重要贡献[2]。由白粉菌(Erysiphe quercicola)引起的橡胶树白粉病是典型的气传性真菌病害,严重威胁橡胶产业的稳定发展。白粉菌主要侵染橡胶树的幼嫩组织,严重时可导致大面积落叶,直接造成天然橡胶产量的严重损失[3]。白粉病属于典型的气候型病害,其发病情况和危害程度主要受气象条件、橡胶树物候期及病原菌数量的影响。全年均可在橡胶树大田中发现白粉病,白粉菌通过无性阶段的分生孢子在空气中传播,冬春两季尤为频繁,且在气候条件适宜时,短时间内可迅速爆发成灾,预测难度较大[4]。作为一种气传性病害,白粉病的传播符合植物病害流行病学中的空间传播和动态发展规律,其变化取决于寄主、病原与环境条件之间的复杂相互作用[5]。由于白粉菌孢子的高传播能力,由其引发的白粉病又具有快速扩展的特性,因此对白粉病进行有效的监测和防控尤为重要。研究环境因素对白粉病发生和传播的影响,对制定精准的防治策略具有重要意义。
探索初始侵染中心的扩展传播动态是研究病害流行时空动态的基础[6]。真菌孢子在空气中通过气流传播的距离可超过数千公里,从而导致病害的大范围流行[7]。通常空气传播类病害(如白粉病)的发展受地方、区域及大陆尺度的天气条件和气候的影响。对于许多通过空气传播的病原体,长距离传播能力是其最显著的特征之一[8]。成功的远距离运输主要取决于大气湍流的稳定性和能量分布、风速、风向以及病原体在传播过程中的活性等因素[9-10]。针对大范围流行的病害,可以通过建模分析其病原菌孢子的远距离传播过程,预测病原菌对潜在感病寄主的危害,进而在农业生产中及时采取必要的防治措施,以减少损失[11-12]
由美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)空气资源实验室开发的拉格朗日混合型单粒子轨迹(Lagrangian Hybrid Single-Particle Trajectory,HYSPLIT)模型[13],是一种用于远距离传输建模的方法。最初,该模型主要用于分析和计算大气污染物的传输与扩散[14-15],随着模型的不断完善,该模型已广泛应用于植物保护领域[16-17]。HYSPLIT模型能够对空气中的颗粒物或病原体进行轨迹、分散和沉积的建模,支持前向和后向的轨迹跟踪。前向轨迹模拟则用于模拟气流的扩散方向和范围,后向轨迹模拟用于溯源气流来源,通过轨迹的长短判断气团的移动速度[18]。模型会将湍流风分量添加到平均位置上,以确定最终位置,并从该位置开始计算下一个时间步长的平流[19]
本研究基于海南植胶区多年对白粉病的监测结果,确定保亭黎族苗族自治县(以下简称“保亭县”)为橡胶树白粉病的潜在早期传播节点,并对白粉菌孢子浓度和气象变化进行系统监测。采用HYSPLIT模型研究潜在早期传播节点地区白粉菌孢子随气流的传输路径,旨在深入了解海南岛橡胶树白粉菌孢子的区域时空传输规律,为制定不同产区的防控策略提供理论依据和技术支持。
Burkard孢子捕捉系统,包含单逆流离心管式孢子捕捉仪(图1A)和多维环境气象监测仪(图1B),置于保亭金江26队橡胶树病害监测点(18°54′49″N,109°61′61″E)。单逆流离心管式孢子捕捉仪通过收集空气中分散的颗粒物(包括真菌孢子)来运行,并将这些颗粒以16.5 L/min3的流量沉积到无菌1.5 mL离心管中。多维环境气象监测仪每小时连续记录包括空气温度(℃)、相对湿度(%)、降雨量(mm)等关键数据。
本研究采用的地图为公开的必应地图(https://www.bing.com/maps?cp=19.113691%7E110.053259&lvl=9.0)和高德软件提供的审图号为GS(2022)6379的公益性海南岛地图。
为了全面了解海南岛橡胶树白粉病的发病情况,本研究依托已建立的海南植胶区病害监测网络(图2)。该监测网络覆盖全岛10个市(县),设置51个监测点,系统收集冬春季橡胶树叶片的生长发育阶段气象和物候数据,并详细记录橡胶树白粉病的发病情况及病害严重程度。
为了全面了解海南植胶区橡胶树白粉病在流行前期的菌源传播情况,本研究选定保亭县作为白粉菌孢子扩散起始点,研究时间为2021—2023年的每年2月1日—3月31日。模拟高度分别设定为离地面100、500、1000、1500 m。每次传播运行6 h,每小时病原菌孢子开始传播1次,全天共计24次传播模拟。利用HYSPLIT模型对橡胶树白粉菌孢子的气流传输轨迹进行模拟分析。为更直观地展示前向轨迹,将每年的轨迹传播结果通过TrajStat软件转换为数字矢量文件,并在中国气象科学研究院大气成分研究所王亚强研究团队开发的MeteoInfoMap平台上,运用欧式距离算法对合并后的气流轨迹进行聚类分析,最终归纳出几类具有代表性的气团传输路径。此外,本研究采用后向轨迹分析,对保亭县气团传输路径上的被传输地区气团潜在来源进行验证,模拟高度设定在500、1500 m。在后向轨迹模拟中,同样通过TrajStat软件处理轨迹数据,并在MeteoInfoMap平台上进行聚类分析,以确定气流传播的潜在来源。
基于保亭县孢子捕捉系统的2021—2023年监测数据,发现橡胶树白粉菌的传播主要集中在每年的1—4月,在此期间,海南岛春季的低温高湿气候条件以及大量处于易感期的叶片为白粉菌的繁殖和产孢提供了理想环境。9—11月,尽管仍有孢子产生,但高温低湿的气候条件以及缺乏易感期叶片,均不利于孢子的产生和传播,导致孢子密度较低且持续时间较短。此外,橡胶树白粉病在2021年春季发生了大规模流行,孢子浓度在橡胶树物候期转化阶段呈现多个高峰,覆盖了叶片从萌芽到成熟的整个生长周期,孢子检出时间为1月7日至4月13日,孢子密度峰值出现在3月22日。相比之下,2023年的孢子检出时间为1月8日至1月31日,孢子密度峰值出现在1月16日,未出现在橡胶树嫩叶期,且2023年2月温度较其他年份高,而湿度低于其他年份,气候条件、橡胶树敏感物候期以及敏感期菌量等因素均不利于白粉病的大流行,因此2023年白粉病的发病程度较轻(图3)。
鉴于橡胶树白粉病流行期的关键阶段集中在春季,根据该病害监测历史数据表明,海南省保亭县橡胶树白粉病发生时间最早,故本研究重点分析保亭县2—3月的气团传输路径,以揭示白粉菌孢子在橡胶树叶片易感期的气流传播轨迹。利用2021—2023年在100、500、1000、1500 m高度每6 h的保亭县前向气流轨迹数据进行模拟分析,通过聚类分析方法,将各高度的气流轨迹划分为若干代表性路径,以揭示白粉菌孢子可能由保亭县向外传播的主要输送通道。结果表明,不同高度的气流主要向西北和西南方向流动(图4),其中西北方向和西南方向的典型气团占30%以上。例如,2021年100 m高度的气流中,西北方向的气团占51.83%,影响白沙县、昌江县、五指山市等地;西南方向的气团占26.34%,影响三亚市。随着高度的增加,气流传输路径呈现一定的变化趋势,即在500 m高度的气流中,西北方向的气流传输更为集中,最远可达东方市和昌江县北部;在1000、1500 m高度的气流中,西南方向的气团传输距离明显增加,除西北和西南方向外,还出现了东北方向的气流,影响定安县中部等地区。2022年和2023年的气流传输路径与2021年基本一致。此外,由于五指山和鹦哥岭山脉的阻隔,保亭县西南方向的气流传输速度低于西北方向,这可能导致五指山市的橡胶树白粉病病情更为严重,而位于五指山北部的白沙县和儋州市的病情较轻。
为了验证橡胶树白粉菌孢子可能的气流传播轨迹,本研究选取以保亭县为中心的前行气流轨迹中的关键地点进行后向气流轨迹模拟。同时,结合聚类分析方法,识别被传输地区可能的气流来源。2021—2023年的模拟结果表明,不同高度的气流传输趋势一致。在500、1500 m高度,被传输地区的气团主要来源于东北和东南方向(图5)。在从保亭县正向轨迹中选取的各关键地点,其后向模拟的潜在气流轨迹均显示出来自保亭县的路径,且2种高度的轨迹路线高度一致。此外,2种高度被传输地区的气流来源地表现出相当复杂的特征,多个地区之间存在交叉传输现象。例如,在500 m高度,三亚市的气流向乐东县传输;而在1500 m高度,乐东县的气流则向三亚市传输。这种交叉传输现象表明,气流在不同高度的互动和影响更加复杂,增加了白粉菌孢子气传路径的多样性。
根据2021—2023年的海南各地区橡胶树物候期和白粉病监测数据,保亭县橡胶树的古铜期平均开始时间为2月5日,明显早于其他地区(图6)。同时,白粉病的平均发病起始时间为2月12日,也早于其他地区。这一现象表明,保亭县较早的橡胶树物候期可能是其白粉病发病时间领先于其他地区的主要原因。与保亭县相邻的五指山市、乐东县和三亚市,尽管橡胶树的古铜期相对接近,但白粉病的发病起始时间明显滞后,且病情相对较为严重(图7)。
白粉菌可侵染橡胶树嫩叶、嫩芽、花序等幼嫩组织,其侵染速度快,当分生孢子附着叶片2 h后即可产生芽管,3 d后形成白色菌斑。后期病斑产生大量分生孢子,可造成二次侵染[20]。白粉菌的侵染过程存在潜育期,受温度及叶片物候期等条件的影响。例如,在25 ℃时,白粉菌在古铜期叶片的潜育期为4 d,在淡绿期叶片的潜育期为7 d。由于白粉菌孢子受长距离运输、潜育期和二次侵染的共同影响,海南植胶区白粉病在中后期的病情发展变得更加复杂。虽然白粉菌分生孢子的萌发条件相对宽泛,在温度为5~35 ℃、相对湿度为10%~90%以及pH为6~8的环境下均可萌发,但在不同的温湿度范围内,其萌发效率存在显著差异[21]。在15~20 ℃的低温条件及28 ℃的高湿度条件下,白粉菌的萌发率最高[22]。因此,海南植胶区不同的气象因素对寄主数量产生影响,导致白粉菌在林间的菌量产生波动,进而引起橡胶树白粉病流行强度的变化[23]
本研究发现,保亭县是海南省橡胶树白粉病最早爆发的地区,其产生的孢子可能通过长距离的气流运输至沿途地区,加重该地区的病害程度。因此,针对气流传输路径制定区域性防治措施显得尤为重要。例如,应在保亭县及其主要气流传输方向上的地区加强橡胶白粉病的监测和防治力度,以有效控制病害的蔓延。此外,研究表明,橡胶树白粉菌孢子的扩散集中于每年的1—4月,这时期与海南岛春季的温湿度条件和橡胶树的物候期密切相关。监测数据进一步显示,保亭县橡胶树平均古铜期和白粉病发病起始时间均领先于其他地区,突出了保亭县作为橡胶树白粉病早期监测预警地点的重要性。
当前的橡胶树病害预测模型主要依赖温湿度等气象因子[24-25],缺乏实际监测数据,且未从病原孢子传播的角度进行综合分析。近年来,随着孢子捕捉技术的准确性提高和成本降低,基于孢子数量的高效预测方法展现出明显优势[26-27]。HYSPLIT模型可用于识别真菌孢子的来源和传播途径。通过分析气团方向和当地风型,该模型能够有效模拟真菌孢子的轨迹和浓度变化,从而有助于判断孢子的来源是本地还是远距离地区[28-29]。例如,王奥霖等[30]利用HYSPLIT模型对我国辽东半岛南端冬小麦条锈病菌源进行后向轨迹分析,明确了旅顺口区上游菌源地及当地小麦条锈病的发生流行规律。王贵[31]应用HYSPLIT模型探究了我国北方春麦区白粉病菌的传播来源与去向。本研究利用HYSPLIT模型对2021—2023年2—3月保亭县橡胶树白粉菌孢子的潜在扩散路径进行了长距离输送模拟,模拟结果显示,保亭县橡胶树白粉菌孢子可能随气流向西南和西北方向传播,主要影响三亚市、乐东县、五指山市等地;被传输地区的后向轨迹模拟结果表明,这些地区不仅有来自保亭县气流的传输,彼此之间还存在气流的相互传输;气流在不同高度的传播方向和速度存在差异,主要受大气环流垂直结构、温度梯度、地形、水汽含量及气压系统等因素的影响。尽管年际间存在一定偏差,但2021—2023年的整体传播趋势保持相似。需要强调的是,HYSPLIT轨迹分析仅证明白粉菌孢子随气流传输的物理可能性,而其生物学有效性还需研究传输过程中孢子存活率和量化沉降孢子的致病力。
结果表明,保亭县植胶区可作为海南岛橡胶树白粉病发病早期的监测点,为全岛病害防控提供至关重要的监测与预警数据。了解不同高度气流的传输特征,有助于优化防治策略,以确保橡胶产业的健康可持续发展。因此,未来的防控措施应结合气流传输路径和气象条件,有针对性地在高风险区域加强病害监测与管理,以有效遏制白粉病的进一步扩散。
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(32460644)
  • 海南省科技人才创新项目(KJRC2023C43)
  • 国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFD1400603)
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2025年第46卷第7期
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2025.07.019
  • 接收时间:2025-01-08
  • 首发时间:2026-06-24
  • 出版时间:2025-07-25
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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-08
  • 录用日期:2025-03-23
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(32460644)
海南省科技人才创新项目(KJRC2023C43)
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFD1400603)
作者信息
    1.海南大学三亚南繁研究院,海南三亚 572024
    2.海南大学热带农林学院,海南儋州 571737

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* 梁晓宇(LIANG Xiaoyu),E-mail:
王萌(WANG Meng),E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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