Article(id=1241742149058876181, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, issueId=1241742062018687952, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3981/j.issn.2097-0781.2023.03.003, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1681056000000, receivedDateStr=2023-04-10, revisedDate=1692720000000, revisedDateStr=2023-08-23, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1696867200000, onlineDateStr=2023-10-10, pubDate=1695139200000, pubDateStr=2023-09-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1696867200000, onlineIssueDateStr=2023-10-10, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773983998787, creator=sys-migrate, updateTime=1773983998787, updator=sys-migrate, issue=Issue{id=1241742062018687952, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, year='2023', volume='2', issue='3', pageStart='106', pageEnd='119', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1695139200000', pubDateStr='2023-09-20', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=1, createTime=1773983978031, creator='sys-migrate', updateTime=1776075155375, updator='13041195026', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1250513095551042081, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, issueId=1241742062018687952, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=Special Issue on Road Traffic Engineering, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=null, specialIssueAbout=null), CN=IssueExt(id=1250513095555236386, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, issueId=1241742062018687952, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=道路交通工程专刊, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=null, specialIssueAbout=null)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=34, endPage=44, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241742153588724506, articleId=1241742149058876181, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, language=EN, title=Prospects of Resilience Enhancement Technology for Road Transportation System, columnId=1149656489310208610, journalTitle=Science and Technology Foresight, columnName=Review and Commentary, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Road transportation system is the lifeline of the national economy and social development. Enhancing the resilience of the road transportation system is a key initiative to build a livable and resilient smart city. As urbanization accelerates, the interwoven complexities of extraordinary events become more pronounced in cities, encompassing a heightened frequency of natural disasters, mega-events, and public security incidents. These factors collectively underscore a pressing need for enhancing resilient road transportation systems. This paper provides an overview of the concept of road transportation system resilience and summarizes the three stages of global development in road transportation resilience, including the introduction of the concept, policy support, and technical application. Through the analysis of traffic demand in road planning, design, control, operation, and maintenance, this paper identifies the key challenges of resilience enhancement technology in four areas: system resilience planning system, multidimensional resilience assessment, dynamic deduction and evolutionary mechanisms, and emergency organization and collaborative management. Finally, the prospects of China’s road transportation resilience enhancement technology are proposed: Strengthening top-level planning and integrated design of resilient transportation, investigating core scientific issues and key technologies, perfecting laws and regulations and publishing technical standards and norms for resilience enhancement, demonstrating of the typical cities on the ground.

, authors=null, authorsList=Meng LI, Chuan DING, Yunxuan LI, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Meng LI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
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道路交通是国民经济和社会发展的命脉,提升道路交通系统韧性是打造宜居韧性智慧城市的关键举措。随着城镇化进程加快,城市面临的不确定性因素交织叠加,频发的自然灾害、重大活动、公共安全事件等对韧性道路交通系统建设提出了更为迫切的要求。文章对道路交通系统韧性的内涵进行了概述,梳理了国内外道路交通韧性从理念引入、政策支持到技术应用的3个发展阶段,围绕系统韧性规划体系、多维度韧性评估、动态推演与演化机制、应急组织与协同管控,凝练总结了韧性提升在道路规划、设计、管控、运行维护等全环节的关键挑战。最后,从加强顶层规划和统筹设计、攻克核心科学问题和关键技术、健全法律法规和标准化技术文件、加速推进技术成果落地应用4个方面提出了中国道路交通系统韧性发展建议。

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李萌,清华大学长聘副教授,研究员,博士研究生导师。清华大学-梅赛德斯奔驰可持续交通联合研究院院长,清华大学智能网联汽车与交通研究中心副主任等。国家杰出青年科学基金获得者,中国智能交通协会中青年创新领军人才。主要从事韧性交通、交通大数据分析、智能交通、自动驾驶方面的研究。电子信箱:。

, authorsList=李萌, 丁川, 李昀轩, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=李萌, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
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李萌,清华大学长聘副教授,研究员,博士研究生导师。清华大学-梅赛德斯奔驰可持续交通联合研究院院长,清华大学智能网联汽车与交通研究中心副主任等。国家杰出青年科学基金获得者,中国智能交通协会中青年创新领军人才。主要从事韧性交通、交通大数据分析、智能交通、自动驾驶方面的研究。电子信箱:。

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李萌,清华大学长聘副教授,研究员,博士研究生导师。清华大学-梅赛德斯奔驰可持续交通联合研究院院长,清华大学智能网联汽车与交通研究中心副主任等。国家杰出青年科学基金获得者,中国智能交通协会中青年创新领军人才。主要从事韧性交通、交通大数据分析、智能交通、自动驾驶方面的研究。电子信箱:。

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Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 2023, 52, doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2022.102524., articleTitle=Global mass gathering events and deaths due to crowd surge, stampedes, crush and physical injuries-lessons from the Seoul Halloween and other disasters, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226133406666, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2013, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[12], rfOrder=11, authorNames=Petit F, Bassett G W, Black R, journalName=Chicago: Argonne National Lab (ANL), refType=null, unstructuredReference=Petit F, Bassett G W, Black R, et al. Resilience measurement index: An indicator of critical infrastructure resilience[R]. Chicago: Argonne National Lab (ANL), 2013., articleTitle=Resilience measurement index: An indicator of critical infrastructure resilience, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226204709835, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2016, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[13], rfOrder=12, authorNames=Federal Emergency Management Agency, journalName=Washington, D.C.: Federal Emergency Management Agency, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Federal Emergency Management Agency. National preparedness goal[R]. Washington, D.C.: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2016., articleTitle=National preparedness goal, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226267624396, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2018, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[14], rfOrder=13, authorNames=United States Department of Homeland Security, journalName=Washington, D. C.: US Department of Homeland Security, refType=null, unstructuredReference=United States Department of Homeland Security. 2018-2022 Strategic plan, federal emergency management agency[R]. Washington, D. C.: US Department of Homeland Security, 2018., articleTitle=2018-2022 Strategic plan, federal emergency management agency, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226330538957, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[15], rfOrder=14, authorNames=European Commission, journalName=Brussels: European Commission, refType=null, unstructuredReference=European Commission. Horizon Europe[R]. Brussels: European Commission, 2020., articleTitle=Horizon Europe, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226422813646, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2021, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[16], rfOrder=15, authorNames=European Commission, journalName=Brussels: European Commission, refType=null, unstructuredReference=European Commission. Sustainable and smart mobility strategy[R]. Brussels: European Commission, 2021., articleTitle=Sustainable and smart mobility strategy, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226489922511, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=6, issue=1, pageStart=97, pageEnd=102, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[17], rfOrder=16, authorNames=买媛媛, 李艳红, journalName=交通运输研究, refType=null, unstructuredReference=买媛媛, 李艳红. 发达国家交通应对突发公共卫生事件的经验及对我国的启示[J]. 交通运输研究, 2020, 6(1): 97-102., articleTitle=发达国家交通应对突发公共卫生事件的经验及对我国的启示, refAbstract=自新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发生以来,按照习近平总书记的重要指示,交通运输行业统一部署、积极应对,在疫情防控、应急运输组织保障中发挥了重要作用。交通运输既是遏制病毒传播的重要环节,又是人民群众出行和防控物资供应的重点保障。纵观世界范围内的突发公共卫生事件,交通运输亦发挥了重要的作用,美国建立了“规划引领、分级响应”的交通应急物流系统,日本建立了“预防为主、多式联运”的交通应急配送体系,英国形成了“垂直管理、多层次协作”的交通应急管理体制。这些先进的经验和应对模式给我国交通应急管理体系的完善提供了如下启示:规划先行,优化外集内配网络体系实现应急物资的高效运输和基本生活物资的有效供给;加强预防,提前科学筹谋交通应急预案并结合具体实际不断深入、细化;统筹协作,不断完善交通应急管理体制与配套保障措施。), Reference(id=1241742226544448464, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2017, volume=null, issue=4, pageStart=71, pageEnd=76, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[18], rfOrder=17, authorNames=邵亦文, 徐江, journalName=城市与减灾, refType=null, unstructuredReference=邵亦文, 徐江. 城市规划中实现韧性构建:日本强韧化规划对中国的启示[J]. 城市与减灾, 2017(4): 71-76., articleTitle=城市规划中实现韧性构建:日本强韧化规划对中国的启示, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226598974417, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2008, volume=25, issue=9, pageStart=154, pageEnd=158, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=18, authorNames=谢素华, journalName=公路交通科技, refType=null, unstructuredReference=谢素华. 论我国公路交通应急及运输保障体系建设[J]. 公路交通科技, 2008, 25(9): 154-158., articleTitle=论我国公路交通应急及运输保障体系建设, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226661888978, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[20], rfOrder=19, authorNames=应急管理部, journalName=北京: 国务院灾害调查组, refType=null, unstructuredReference=应急管理部. 河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害调查报告[R]. 北京: 国务院灾害调查组, 2022., articleTitle=河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害调查报告, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226737386451, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2016, volume=null, issue=3, pageStart=54, pageEnd=59, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[21], rfOrder=20, authorNames=徐德谦, journalName=中国公路, refType=null, unstructuredReference=徐德谦. 从无到有由弱到强——我国公路应急处置体系建设发展的历程[J]. 中国公路, 2016(3): 54-59., articleTitle=从无到有由弱到强——我国公路应急处置体系建设发展的历程, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226796106708, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=null, issue=001, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[22], rfOrder=21, authorNames=中国共产党第十九届中央委员会, journalName=人民日报, refType=null, unstructuredReference=中国共产党第十九届中央委员会. 中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议[N]. 人民日报, 2020-11-04(001)., articleTitle=中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226863215573, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[23], rfOrder=22, authorNames=上海市人民政府, journalName=上海: 上海市人民政府, refType=null, unstructuredReference=上海市人民政府. 上海市交通发展白皮书(2022版)[R]. 上海: 上海市人民政府, 2022., articleTitle=上海市交通发展白皮书(2022版), refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742226921935830, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=10.1080/23789689.2018.1448663, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=5, issue=3, pageStart=168, pageEnd=199, url=https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23789689.2018.1448663, language=null, rfNumber=[24], rfOrder=23, authorNames=Sun W, Bocchini P, Davison B D, journalName=Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Sun W, Bocchini P, Davison B D. 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Washington, D.C.: US Department of Transportation, 2012., articleTitle=Climate change and extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742227030987736, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=10.1016/j.trc.2019.05.039, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2019, volume=105, issue=null, pageStart=297, pageEnd=322, url=https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0968090X18315389, language=null, rfNumber=[26], rfOrder=25, authorNames=Zhang Z, Li M, Lin X, journalName=Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Zhang Z, Li M, Lin X, et al. Multistep speed prediction on traffic networks: A deep learning approach consi- dering spatio-temporal dependencies[J]. 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Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2016, 156: 84-96., articleTitle=Resilience of traffic networks: From perturbation to recovery via a dynamic restricted equilibrium model, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742227177788378, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2021, volume=23, issue=2, pageStart=52, pageEnd=61, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[28], rfOrder=27, authorNames=李萌, 郭娅明, journalName=中国基础科学, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李萌, 郭娅明. 冬奥会交通与安保协同管控体系研究进展[J]. 中国基础科学, 2021, 23(2): 52-61., articleTitle=冬奥会交通与安保协同管控体系研究进展, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241742227240702939, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=10.1111/risa.12093, pmid=23875704, pmcid=null, year=2014, volume=34, issue=2, pageStart=340, pageEnd=355, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[29], rfOrder=28, authorNames=Ayyub B M, journalName=Risk Analysis, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Ayyub B M. Systems resilience for multihazard environments: Definition, metrics, and valuation for decision making[J]. Risk Analysis, 2014, 34(2): 340-355., articleTitle=Systems resilience for multihazard environments: Definition, metrics, and valuation for decision making, refAbstract=The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision-making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision-making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit-cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.), Reference(id=1241742227312006108, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2017, volume=24, issue=11, pageStart=1, pageEnd=8, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[30], rfOrder=29, authorNames=仇保兴, journalName=城市发展研究, refType=null, unstructuredReference=仇保兴. 构建韧性城市交通五准则[J]. 城市发展研究, 2017, 24(11): 1-8., articleTitle=构建韧性城市交通五准则, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241742225307128766, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, awardId=52325209, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金(52325209), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241742221188322164, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241742221196710773, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, companyId=1241742221188322164, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241742221209293687, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, companyId=1241742221188322164, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.清华大学土木水利学院,北京 100084)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241742221276402553, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241742221284791162, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146032081894723586, articleId=1241742149058876181, companyId=1241742221276402553, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2. 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道路交通系统韧性提升技术展望
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李萌 1, † , 丁川 2 , 李昀轩 3
前瞻科技 | 综述与述评 2023,2(3): 34-44
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前瞻科技 | 综述与述评 2023, 2(3): 34-44
道路交通系统韧性提升技术展望
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李萌1, † , 丁川2, 李昀轩3
作者信息
  • 1.清华大学土木水利学院,北京 100084
  • 2.北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院,北京 100191
  • 3.北京工业大学城市交通学院,北京 100124
  • 李萌,清华大学长聘副教授,研究员,博士研究生导师。清华大学-梅赛德斯奔驰可持续交通联合研究院院长,清华大学智能网联汽车与交通研究中心副主任等。国家杰出青年科学基金获得者,中国智能交通协会中青年创新领军人才。主要从事韧性交通、交通大数据分析、智能交通、自动驾驶方面的研究。电子信箱:。

通信作者:

†
†
Prospects of Resilience Enhancement Technology for Road Transportation System
Meng LI1, † , Chuan DING2, Yunxuan LI3
Affiliations
  • 1. School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • 2. School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
  • 3. College of Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
出版时间: 2023-09-20 doi: 10.3981/j.issn.2097-0781.2023.03.003
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道路交通是国民经济和社会发展的命脉,提升道路交通系统韧性是打造宜居韧性智慧城市的关键举措。随着城镇化进程加快,城市面临的不确定性因素交织叠加,频发的自然灾害、重大活动、公共安全事件等对韧性道路交通系统建设提出了更为迫切的要求。文章对道路交通系统韧性的内涵进行了概述,梳理了国内外道路交通韧性从理念引入、政策支持到技术应用的3个发展阶段,围绕系统韧性规划体系、多维度韧性评估、动态推演与演化机制、应急组织与协同管控,凝练总结了韧性提升在道路规划、设计、管控、运行维护等全环节的关键挑战。最后,从加强顶层规划和统筹设计、攻克核心科学问题和关键技术、健全法律法规和标准化技术文件、加速推进技术成果落地应用4个方面提出了中国道路交通系统韧性发展建议。

道路交通系统  /  韧性提升技术  /  应急保障

Road transportation system is the lifeline of the national economy and social development. Enhancing the resilience of the road transportation system is a key initiative to build a livable and resilient smart city. As urbanization accelerates, the interwoven complexities of extraordinary events become more pronounced in cities, encompassing a heightened frequency of natural disasters, mega-events, and public security incidents. These factors collectively underscore a pressing need for enhancing resilient road transportation systems. This paper provides an overview of the concept of road transportation system resilience and summarizes the three stages of global development in road transportation resilience, including the introduction of the concept, policy support, and technical application. Through the analysis of traffic demand in road planning, design, control, operation, and maintenance, this paper identifies the key challenges of resilience enhancement technology in four areas: system resilience planning system, multidimensional resilience assessment, dynamic deduction and evolutionary mechanisms, and emergency organization and collaborative management. Finally, the prospects of China’s road transportation resilience enhancement technology are proposed: Strengthening top-level planning and integrated design of resilient transportation, investigating core scientific issues and key technologies, perfecting laws and regulations and publishing technical standards and norms for resilience enhancement, demonstrating of the typical cities on the ground.

road transportation system  /  resilience enhancement technology  /  emergency rescue
李萌, 丁川, 李昀轩. 道路交通系统韧性提升技术展望. 前瞻科技, 2023 , 2 (3) : 34 -44 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.2097-0781.2023.03.003
Meng LI, Chuan DING, Yunxuan LI. Prospects of Resilience Enhancement Technology for Road Transportation System[J]. Science and Technology Foresight, 2023 , 2 (3) : 34 -44 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.2097-0781.2023.03.003
近年来,频繁发生的自然灾害、公共安全事件、严重交通事件等给道路交通系统的有序运转和居民的正常生活带来了巨大影响。面对这些冲击和扰动,不同城市道路交通系统呈现出的稳定性、可靠性和响应处置能力差异大,韧性强的道路交通系统能够吸收外部扰动事件带来的不利冲击,具有较强的适应性和调整能力,可以保障道路交通正常运行[1]。因此,提升道路交通系统韧性已成为国内外关注的重点和现实需求。
道路交通系统是城市社会、经济和物质结构的基本组成部分,其面临的非常态事件总体上可以分为4类:① 自然灾害类,如暴雨、大雪、台风、地震等造成道路设施损毁;② 公共安全类,如恐怖袭击、军事行动等造成道路临时中断;③ 社会活动类,如重大活动、重要节假日、群众活动等造成道路大面积拥堵;④ 特殊交通事件,如严重交通事故、超规货物特种运输等造成道路功能下降。这些非常态事件破坏速度快、蔓延范围广、恢复时间长,对道路交通系统造成的负面影响会从局部向周边区域快速蔓延。如果没有采取有效的管控策略,可能导致整个交通系统崩溃(图1)。因此,有必要从道路交通规划、设计、管控等全链条一体化提升道路交通系统韧性,从系统性、复杂性、适应性等角度突破韧性提升技术的关键瓶颈。
在世界范围内,为适应和应对自然环境变化和国际形势动荡,美国、日本、英国等发达国家都在积极打造韧性交通基础设施,并在相关法律法规中将交通韧性和应急保障作为主要战略目标和规划内容[2]。一方面,交通系统直接暴露在各种非常态事件影响下,提升交通系统韧性直接决定了城市系统抵御各种风险的能力;另一方面,交通系统承担应急管控的关键任务,是城市间应急救援、物资配送的主要动脉,提升交通系统韧性直接决定了整个国家的应急保障能力。中国于2021年发布的《国家综合立体交通网规划纲要》也明确指出,目前中国综合交通网络韧性还需增强[3]。如何提升道路交通系统的韧性不仅是世界性难题,更是中国由交通大国迈向交通强国的关键任务。
韧性(resilience)来自拉丁语resilio,被描述为“受挫折后恢复原状的能力”,可理解为系统受灾后回弹到原始状态,是系统演变的动态揭示。2010年,Martin[4]借鉴复杂适应系统理论,提出了“演化韧性”概念,可理解为系统遭受非常态事件时抗干扰的能力、维持系统正常运行的能力及快速复原的能力。道路交通系统韧性提升技术是指合理规划道路交通系统网络、评估系统风险防控能力、维持系统运输服务持续供给、提高系统应急管控水平及快速恢复系统正常功能的相关工程技术。道路交通系统应对非常态事件的过程可以分为3个阶段:预防准备阶段、应急响应阶段和快速恢复阶段(图2)。老化的交通系统(图2黑色虚线)长期运行过程中必然伴随着内在消耗与机能衰退,在遭遇非常态事件时往往抵抗能力不足,小的扰动也会造成系统功能急剧下降且恢复能力缓慢。未进行韧性提升的道路交通系统(图2蓝线)抵抗非常态事件扰动能力不足,系统的功能会急剧下降,表现为通行能力严重下降,道路大范围中断、失效等。一个强韧性的道路交通系统应该具备快速精准评估系统的受损程度、推演系统的失效范围、同时协同多种应急管控策略促进交通系统恢复至正常功能的能力,并通过自我调节来更好地应对外部事件的冲击和扰动[5](图2红线)。
韧性提升不仅仅是提升道路交通系统应对非常态事件的前期准备和减少损失的能力,还包括对非常态事件应急响应和快速恢复的能力,是一个全过程的概念[6]。将韧性提升理念融入道路交通系统规划、设计、建设和管控中,积极探索道路交通系统安全与高效兼顾的高质量发展路径,适配道路交通资源以提高交通系统韧性,有利于强化交通系统应对非常态事件的防御和适应能力,实现道路交通系统的高质量、可持续发展。
国内外交通系统韧性发展历程大致可以分为3个阶段:理念引入阶段、政策支持阶段和技术应用阶段。
韧性道路交通系统概念最早由Murray-Tuite于2006年提出[7]。随着道路交通系统在各种非常态事件中承担的关键作用越来越突出,一些发达国家陆续将韧性作为衡量道路交通系统的重要指标。尤其是在2011年3月11日东日本大地震后,为了最大限度地保护国民生命安全,避免国家和社会重要职能失效,世界各国陆续开展本国的韧性交通系统顶层设计,将韧性纳入国家未来发展规划和基础设施建设中(图3)。
随着世界各国法律法规逐步落地实施,韧性交通系统建设已然是大势所趋。然而,现阶段由于缺乏科学有效的韧性提升技术手段,道路交通系统在外部扰动事件发生后表现的韧性水平仍然有待提高。因此,在韧性交通系统顶层设计的指导下,如何通过技术手段,实现对交通基础设施韧性评估和提升交通管控韧性水平,将是未来道路交通系统韧性提升技术的主要发展方向。
道路交通系统是国民经济和社会发展的大动脉,也是应急救援的生命线。在面对非常态事件冲击时,高韧性道路交通系统能够有效应对和迅速消减事件影响,低韧性道路交通系统则会出现道路瘫痪甚至加剧事件影响。例如,2005年8月飓风“卡特里娜”登陆美国。当地交通管理部门没有事前充分考虑道路组织和路线引导在车辆疏散过程中的重要性(图4(a)),导致有约250万人被堵在道路上,造成了大量的人员伤亡和财产损失[8]。2005年7月,伦敦地铁和巴士遭遇了炸弹恐怖袭击(图4(b))。事件发生后,由于多种交通方式缺乏有效配合、协同管控,进一步加剧了恐怖袭击事件的恶劣影响[9]。游行、罢工等社会活动是导致交通受到扰动甚至中断的另一大重要因素。2019年12月,法国国内爆发了一场25年来规模最大的罢工。巴黎市内16条公交线路中,高达11条线路无法正常运营,90%的高速和城际列车被取消。罢工造成部分仍在运行的公交线路出现客流饱和(图4(c)),道路交通也发生了严重拥堵[10]。2022年10月,韩国首尔龙山区梨泰院举行万圣节派对活动时发生了严重踩踏事件。由于当地交警没有及时发布出行预警,未能有效疏散事故周边交通流,梨泰院最近的消防署及急救队距事发地仅250 m,但救护车耗费了40 min才抵达现场,错过了最佳的抢救时间(图4(d))[11]。
为降低非常态事件的影响,联合国、世界银行等国际组织及西方国家积极倡导并开始提升交通系统韧性,通过交通引导促进低风险空间发展。2013年,美国国土安全部联合阿贡国家实验室提出了韧性评估指数,通过该指数可以评估道路交通系统的韧性水平,提供关键节点的优化策略,提升交通系统的韧性能力[12]。2016年,美国政府颁布《国家备灾目标》,目标是建立一个具有预警、抵御、缓解响应和恢复的能力的韧性国家[13]。2018年,美国发布了《应急管理战略规划(2018—2022)》,明确提出要做好重特大灾害应急准备,研究道路交通系统网络和物资供应链,打通应急救灾物资运输“最后一公里”[14]。
2018年6月,欧盟委员会发布了“地平线欧洲”计划,提出要进一步发展多式联运系统,通过可持续、智能的长途城市货运物流和更具韧性的交通基础设施,实现更加智能的车辆和交通管理,提高交通系统应对非常态事件做出快速反应的能力[15]。2020年欧盟委员会公布的《可持续与智能交通战略》提出,要全面推动交通系统数字化转型,以推动建设可持续、智能和富有韧性的交通运输系统[16]。
1995年阪神大地震发生后,日本开始建立“预防为主+多式联运”的多模式交通应急配送体系,结合公路、铁路、航空等多式联运的优势,构建统一指挥协调管控机制,保障应急救援优先安排、优先调度和优先通行[17]。2011年3月11日,日本大地震发生后,日本社会的防灾减灾理念进一步转变,由以“防护”为中心、强化基础设施转变为进一步强调从灾害中迅速恢复能力的重要性。2013年,日本政府颁布了《国土强韧化基本法》,提出“最大限度保护生命安全,保障国家及社会重要机能,国民财产及公共设施受灾的最小化和迅速重建”等基本方针[18]。截至2020年5月,日本所有的都道府县及424个市区町村都制定了地域层级的“强韧化”计划。
中国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一,灾害种类多、分布地域广、发生频率高、造成损失重。2008年中国南方发生大范围低温、雨雪、冰冻等自然灾害,全国20个省市受灾(图5(a))。由于道路结冰,铁路受阻,汽车和火车无法正常通行,应急救援和生活物资无法有效到达,导致灾害造成的影响进一步加剧,此次灾害也让中国意识到增强交通基础设施抗风险能力的重要性[19]。2021年河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害中,由于缺乏快速评估暴雨对交通系统的影响程度,交通系统未能有效地发布出行预警信息,地铁、隧道等发生了本不应该发生的伤亡事故[20](图5(b))。
随着城市机动车保有量不断上升,北京、上海等特大城市道路交通运行面临较大压力,尤其是重大节假日期间,道路交通过饱和运行。例如,2012年9月24—29日受中秋节、国庆节双节假期影响,北京的道路交通系统遭遇了严重拥堵事件,全市路网交通几近瘫痪。2021年9月18日晚高峰期间,多起交通事故并行发生导致全市路网受到严重冲击,交通运行监测调度中心发布了交通拥堵红色预警,严重拥堵持续时间超过4 h(图5(c))。
网约车、共享单车等共享交通模式为日常居民出行提供了便利,但监管不到位会增加城市交通的负担,甚至影响交通正常运行。例如,2022年8月13日,滴滴出行公司推出周末打车到固定地点免单活动,导致大量网约车集体涌向西单,既有因为西单免单而专程打车去西单的乘客,还有为了参与活动拿奖励去西单抢单的网约车司机,造成了西单地区交通几乎瘫痪(图5(d))。
在总结抗击低温雨雪冰冻灾害和汶川特大地震抗震救灾经验的基础上,中国交通运输部于2009年发布了《公路交通突发公共事件应急预案》,并在“十三五”规划中明确推进应急体系建设,加强全国交通运输运行监测与应急指挥系统[21]。经过10多年的发展,中国交通运输安全与应急保障能力不断加强,但现有的非常态事件仍以被动检测为主,缺乏快速精准推演非常态事件对交通系统的影响程度,无法为管理人员提供快速、可靠的决策信息,道路交通系统的韧性不足。2020年,十九届五中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议》首次提出建设“韧性城市”概念,提高城市治理水平,加强特大城市治理中的风险防控[22]。2022年上海市发布的《上海市交通发展白皮书(2022版)》中强调,加强韧性交通顶层设计,将韧性理念贯穿交通规划、建设、运营、管理全过程,通过技术、模式、机制、政策等创新,全面提升交通系统受到外部扰动时的适应能力和快速恢复能力[23]。
1)国际环境层面
当前国际形势正经历百年未有之大变局,世界各国和地方政府正在逐步强化风险意识,强调应重视包括气候变化、全球化、经济危机、地缘政治在内的更广泛的不确定因素。美国、日本、英国等多个发达国家已经陆续系统性评估本国交通网络应对各类极端事件的能力,并制定相关法律法规,将韧性理念深入交通系统全生命周期,成为制定公共政策的重要导向。
2)国家安全层面
当前中国正进入新发展阶段,亟须加强国家安全体系和能力建设。自然灾害和重特大事故可能演化成超预期的极端情况,在更大空间范围或较长时间内威胁到公民生命、健康、财产安全,甚至影响国家政权机关正常运行。发展道路交通系统韧性提升技术可以有效提高公共安全治理水平,推动公共安全治理模式向事前预防转型,提高防灾减灾救灾和重大突发公共事件处置保障能力,加强国家区域应急力量建设。
3)城市治理层面
道路交通系统韧性提升技术为提高城市治理水平、加强城市治理中的风险防控提供了先决条件,是城市可持续发展、高质量发展的必然要求。在制定城市发展政策时需要技术、模式、机制等创新,强调加强韧性交通顶层设计,将韧性理念贯穿交通规划、建设、运营、管理全过程。
4)风险防范层面
随着“风险社会”的到来,各类自然灾害事件、公共安全事件以及突如其来的公共卫生事件,无时无刻不在威胁人类的生存和社会的可持续发展。为了预防和降低风险,减少灾害损失,提升道路交通系统应对各类非常态事件风险的能力,需要研究韧性提升技术,该技术也是风险防控和灾害治理的高技术领域之一。
纵观世界各国道路交通系统韧性发展历程,中国道路交通系统韧性提升仍旧面临着严峻挑战。
1)韧性提升技术难以融入多尺度、多层级道路交通系统规划体系
进一步强化道路交通系统韧性提升顶层设计,自上而下将韧性理念融入各个层级的交通规划设计方案中,形成有效的上下层级联动机制[24],结合不同城市道路交通实际环境,建立全过程动态管理方法,从事前、事中、事后全生命周期角度入手,构建具有全过程、各环节、整体性和系统性的统一标准体系[5]。传统的规划理念刚性思维明显,对防灾过度强调底线思维,需重点关注不同层级道路交通系统规划建设的总体目标并具体化相关约束性指标。有必要健全统一的道路交通系统韧性提升技术标准,加快制定/修订基础通用标准。
2)单一指标难以全面动态地评估道路交通系统韧性水平
针对道路交通系统非线性特性强、影响要素多、各功能间耦合性强等难题,研究能力可伸缩、网络可重构的韧性交通系统评估指标体系[6]。量化非常态事件下交通道路网络的最大承载力,识别路网关键节点的敏感性和可靠性;基于路网物理和拓扑属性,计算其鲁棒性和冗余性[25]。需重点关注道路交通系统中鲁棒性、冗余性和恢复性多维度韧性评估方法的构建。研究获取非常态事件影响下大规模路网真实、可靠数据的信息采集方法,结合非常态事件严重程度、影响因素、处置难度、资源限制及环境等影响因素,全面考虑各影响因素之间的动态变化规律,构建系统预防、响应、恢复阶段全过程整体的韧性交通系统评估方法(图6)[5]。
3)非常态事件随机发生与交通路况非连续时变叠加,路网态势难以实时精准推演
在非常态事件冲击下,道路交通系统的网络结构和服务水平将会发生显著变化,需要深入研究非常态事件快速定位和精准推演技术,完善风险实时监测体系[26]。研究多源感知的多灾种风险耦合与潜在风险量化方法,建立交通安全多维度风险谱系分析方法。研究各类风险事件对复杂交通系统演化的影响机制,构建韧性交通系统演化机制理论与建模方法[12]。需重点关注非常态事件在交通路网中的时空演化特征,分析大城市多个交通瓶颈区域间(如综合交通枢纽、城市老城区)的韧性影响机制,进而建立城市交通瓶颈区域韧性联动模型,实现复杂交通系统风险实时监测、韧性演化机制的快速识别和区域韧性联动的精准推演(图7)。
4)应急调度与疏导管控相互影响,策略间非线性耦合,多策略难以有效协调
非常态事件发生后,利用韧性交通系统的道路资源在时空维度多用途、高效灵活等特性,研究大范围异常天气下城市安全风险感知与评估、应急与协同管控方法[27],实现交通有序组织、流量精准疏导与资源精准配置,构建可靠性强、实施效率高、资源集约化高的多策略应急控制方法[28]。需重点关注非常态事件影响下道路交通系统供需平衡优化方法、协调机制和柔性消解转化方法,研究融合公交系统、地铁系统、自动驾驶系统、低空交通系统等多模式韧性耦合模型,实现集主动交通诱导、响应式信号控制、动态导向车道、交通有序组织、流量精准疏导、资源精准配置的多策略协同控制,探索信息不充分场景下应急疏散和救援技术、基础物资与紧急救援物资精准配送和供应链安全保障技术,以及基于多策略系统的事后关键路段快速恢复和应急通道搭建技术。结合多维韧性评估方法,构建道路交通应急指挥调度体系(图8)。
中国正在建设现代化高质量国家综合立体交通网,各类交通基础设施将进一步向综合立体、布局完善、结构优化、资源集约、衔接高效、互联互通方向发展,必将要求道路交通系统具有足够的韧性,在面对非常态事件时,具有强大的抗干扰能力,维持系统正常运行能力及快速复原能力,维护社会经济正常运行,支撑灾害抢险应急救援。因此,道路交通系统韧性提升技术是中国未来交通发展的重大战略问题,也是交通强国建设的重要任务。未来中国的道路交通系统韧性发展建议如下。
(1)加强顶层规划和统筹设计。当前中国交通系统部门分割、职能分散、多头管理、信息壁垒等问题仍然突出,各种运输方式在发展过程中更多从自身考虑,忽略了整体性。在非常态事件影响下,各运输方式之间难以发挥区域交通系统的互补性,无法实现相互支持、协同作战、应急联动。未来构建道路交通系统韧性提升技术需要加强韧性交通顶层设计,在国家层面制定指导性纲领文件,将韧性提升技术纳入交通强国试点、科学技术部和交通运输部科技创新需求和重点专项研发计划等,推动该技术在行业内的发展。
(2)攻克核心科学问题和关键技术。从长期来看,多模式交通网络可以提高单一交通网络遭受非常态事件后的韧性,但不同网络之间的依赖程度会增加系统的脆弱性。亟须研究复杂交通系统多模式网络的科学基础理论研究和核心技术,建立具有自主知识产权的道路交通系统韧性提升技术。未来可以考虑充分结合道路交通系统与铁路系统、航空系统、低空立体交通系统等其他模式的交通资源,实现多模式交通分层自适应控制,以提高交通系统的抗冲击、应急响应和快速恢复能力。
(3)健全法律法规和标准化技术文件。当前道路交通系统应对不同非常态事件的管控措施和应急方案存在相互割裂、应用性不强等问题,且缺乏统一的韧性评估标准。未来需加快完善韧性提升的通用标准,将韧性标准贯穿交通规划、建设、运营、管理全过程。
(4)加速推进技术成果落地应用。选取中国典型城市或区域作为工程落地示范载体,结合实际交通场景和非常态事件类型,评估韧性提升技术的实际性能,拓宽韧性提升应用场景,提升统一标准规范下不同城市的韧性能力。
从世界范围来看,发达国家或地区都在积极推进韧性交通建设,通过提高交通韧性来降低非常态事件对国民生计和福祉的影响[24,29-30]。相较于国外韧性交通先进水平,中国韧性交通在基础理论和关键技术方面仍有不足。当前中国正处于交通大国迈向交通强国的关键时期,预计到2035年将基本建成安全可靠的现代化高质量国家综合立体交通网。因此,坚持创新核心地位,注重科技赋能,在国家顶层规划的牵引、多部委协同合作及科研人员的努力下,中国必将构建一个同时具备抗干扰能力、维持系统正常运行能力和快速复原能力的高韧性道路交通系统。
  • 国家自然科学基金(52325209)
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doi: 10.3981/j.issn.2097-0781.2023.03.003
  • 接收时间:2023-04-10
  • 出版时间:2023-09-20
  • 发布时间:2023-10-10
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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-10
  • 修回日期:2023-08-23
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国家自然科学基金(52325209)
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    1.清华大学土木水利学院,北京 100084
    2.北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院,北京 100191
    3.北京工业大学城市交通学院,北京 100124

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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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