Article(id=1244213320513864703, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, issueId=1244213313182221193, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11676/qxxb2025.20240095, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1722700800000, receivedDateStr=2024-08-04, revisedDate=1737302400000, revisedDateStr=2025-01-20, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1774573171976, onlineDateStr=2026-03-27, pubDate=1760025600000, pubDateStr=2025-10-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1774573171976, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-27, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1774573171976, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1774573171976, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1244213313182221193, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, year='2025', volume='83', issue='5', pageStart='1139', pageEnd='1384', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1774573170228, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1774573255889, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1244213672566960779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, issueId=1244213313182221193, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1244213672566960780, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, issueId=1244213313182221193, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1139, endPage=1151, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1244213320757133328, articleId=1244213320513864703, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, language=EN, title=Evolution of convective organization during an extremely heavy precipitation process in the Xiangjiang river valley:Mechanism analysis, columnId=1244213315661054860, journalTitle=Acta Meteorologica Sinica, columnName=Articles, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To deepen understanding of mesoscale convective systems under the special topography of Hunan province, this paper uses high spatiotemporal resolution data obtained from the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System to study the extreme precipitation process that occurred in Hunan province from 20:00 BT 29 May to 06:00 BT 30 May 2022. Results indicate that this extremely heavy precipitation event occurred in the convergence zone between dry, cold northerly airflow and warm, moist southwesterly jet at 700 hPa. In the initial stage, clustered convections were sporadically triggered and gradually organized into a banded mesoscale convection system. During the development of the banded mesoscale convection system, positive vorticity formed due to environmental vertical wind shear and negative vorticity generated by the cold pool gradually approached equilibrium, which, coupled with the enhancement of the southwesterly jet that transported a large amount of moisture, resulted in rapid development of the banded mesoscale convection system with extreme precipitation reaching 103 mm in one hour. In the maintenance stage, the compensatory downdraft for the updraft within the banded mesoscale convection system suppressed convection generation in the central part of the system. Additionally, the downdraft enhanced raindrops evaporation in the middle and lower levels and transferred horizontal westward momentum to the near-surface, intensifying convection in the eastern part of the banded mesoscale convection system and resulting in splitting of the convection system into a clustered mesoscale convective system. As the convection moved southward, the low-level southwesterly was blocked by Mingyang and Xuefeng mountains. As a result, new convections were mostly triggered on the west side of the Xiangjiang river valley, resulting in larger total precipitation there.

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为深化对湘江河谷特殊地形下中尺度对流系统组织形态的认识,利用高时空分辨率的自动气象站观测资料、长沙气象站风廓线雷达资料、ERA5再分析资料并结合多普勒雷达分析系统四维变分同化资料,研究了2022年5月29日20时至30日06时(北京时)湘江河谷发生的一次极端强降水过程,重点分析了对流组织形态的演变过程。结果表明:此次极端强降水过程发生在700 hPa东北冷涡底部偏北干冷气流和西南暖湿气流的辐合区域。在起始阶段,簇状对流零星触发,并逐渐组织化为一条带状中尺度对流系统;在发展阶段,环境风垂直切变形成的正涡度和冷池产生的负涡度逐渐趋向平衡,配合西南急流的增强输送大量水汽,带状对流系统快速发展,1 h极端降水达103 mm;在维持阶段,带状对流系统内部上升气流产生的补偿下沉气流抑制了系统中部的对流生成,且下沉气流增强了对流中低层雨滴的蒸发并将西风水平动量下传至近地面,增强了带状对流系统东部的对流,导致对流系统分裂成多雨团中尺度对流系统;而后对流系统逐渐南移,低层暖湿气流受到雪峰山和明阳山阻挡产生绕流,新生对流多在湘江河谷西缘触发,移动至河谷东部后逐渐减弱,导致累计降水量的分布在湘江河谷呈西强东弱的特点。

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康延臻,主要从事中尺度强对流系统研究。E-mail:
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周灵康,主要从事中尺度强对流系统研究。E-mail:

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figureFileSmall=yV1wTs8Y7P6lJSvdJMcJBQ==, figureFileBig=EtUpuGMCB9ddB1ZXCX9iAQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213327300247944, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=Time series of 30 min rainfall rate(a)at three representative stations and total rainfall(b,unit:mm)distribution from 20:00 BT 29 May to 06:00 BT 30 May(scatter points represent the accumulated precipitation at individual stations(unit:mm);triangles in Fig. b denote the locations of three stations in Fig. a,and shadings in Fig. b show the terrain), figureFileSmall=Sdsp3utfDU8H2cSWniPHsA==, figureFileBig=1p8NLI6vrl+yVA8KaE2BUA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213327405105548, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图2, caption=2022年5月29日20时—30日06时降水时间演变和总降水量(a. 代表性站点降水时间演变,b. 站点累计降水量;灰阶:地形高度,散点:单站累计降水量(单位:mm),黑色三角形:代表性站点位置), 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gpm),红色等值线:700 hPa温度(单位:℃),风羽单位:4 m/s,棕色曲线:切变线位置,红色圆点:宜昌探空站位置,红色方形:长沙探空站位置,红色五角星:郴州探空站位置,白色矩形区域:主要降水区位置), figureFileSmall=X/k5zx51+IvKe+wpGLhJqw==, figureFileBig=SjNt0ZQTjXdMtAQnh8e6jA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213327967142312, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 5, caption=Skew T-lgp diagrams of temperature(red line)and dew point temperature(green line)at Yichang sounding station(a),Changsha sounding station(b),Chenzhou sounding station(c)at 20:00 BT 29 May 2022, figureFileSmall=7/NvqK/+RyOiRYZf5odaXQ==, figureFileBig=AoEcsQkqC+OJgwI2A2IcRg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213329514840491, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图5, caption=2022年5月29日20时宜昌站探空(a)、长沙站探空(b)、郴州站探空(c)(红色曲线:层结曲线,黑色曲线:状态曲线,绿色曲线:露点), figureFileSmall=7/NvqK/+RyOiRYZf5odaXQ==, figureFileBig=AoEcsQkqC+OJgwI2A2IcRg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213329619698095, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 6, caption=Distributions of 3 km altitude radar reflectivity(shaded)at selected times(a. 20:31 BT,b. 21:06 BT,c. 21:58 BT,d. 22:33 BT;the numbers inside the enclosed dashed line indicate major convective bands), figureFileSmall=yQuzoJtJOgJjkd2dYsD4gw==, figureFileBig=WbvvZyFHb4y9A7Oib7+bhw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213329732944309, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图6, caption=2022年5月29日20时31分—22时33分零星对流发展为带状对流演变过程的3 km高度局部雷达反射率因子(a. 20时31分,b. 21时06分,c. 21时58分,d. 22时33分;色阶:雷达反射率因子;虚线框和数字标注了主要的对流带), figureFileSmall=yQuzoJtJOgJjkd2dYsD4gw==, figureFileBig=WbvvZyFHb4y9A7Oib7+bhw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213329829413304, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 7, caption=40 dBz radar reflectivity at 3 km altitude(red solid contour)and wind vectors and speed at 1500 m height(shaded)at 20:30 BT(a),21:00 BT(b),21:30 BT(c),and 22:00 BT(d)29 May 2022(white rectangles indicate the areas used to calculate potential temperature and wind shear;arrow with wind speed greater than 12 m/s have been bolded), figureFileSmall=DV72YxclxIVe7KiMblR2Aw==, figureFileBig=TVRl/ZyCw/AKQ30z6vA90g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213329942659515, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图7, caption=2022年5月29日20时30分(a)、21时00分(b)、21时30分(c)、22时00分(d)1500 m局部风场(红色等值线:3 km高度40 dBz雷达反射率因子,箭矢:风矢量(风速大于12 m/s的箭矢做了加粗),色阶:风速,白色实线方框:计算平均位温和环境风切变区域), figureFileSmall=DV72YxclxIVe7KiMblR2Aw==, figureFileBig=TVRl/ZyCw/AKQ30z6vA90g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330043322815, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 8, caption=Same as Fig. 6 but for the period of the convective system splitting(a. 23:08 BT 29,b. 00:06 BT 30,c. 01:04 BT 30,d. 02:01 BT 30;shaded shows 3 km altitude radar reflectivity;the dotted rectangle in Fig. a indicates the range shown in Fig. 10 and the dashed line in Fig. b indicates the position of the vertical cross-sections shown in Fig. 9, figureFileSmall=n0h7Bc9Udhrj1EijEp1ziw==, figureFileBig=qbcKpJokliFleie6mrvnVA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330139791812, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图8, caption=图6,但为带状对流系统分裂为多雨团系统演变过程的雷达反射率因子(a. 29日23时08分,b. 30日00时06分,c. 30日01时04分,d. 30日02时01分;色阶:3 km高度雷达反射率因子,Fig. a中矩形框代表图10区域,Fig. b中直线代表图9剖面位置), figureFileSmall=n0h7Bc9Udhrj1EijEp1ziw==, figureFileBig=qbcKpJokliFleie6mrvnVA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330236260806, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 9, caption=Vertical cross sections of relative humidity(shaded),wind speed(vector),and 40 dBz radar reflectivity(red contour)during the splitting process of the convective system from 22:30 BT 29 May to 00:00 BT 30 May(a. 22:30 BT 29,b. 22:48 BT 29,c. 23:30 BT 29,d. 00:00 BT 30), figureFileSmall=H0FUrpg5BC4OQtHqKzm2Cw==, figureFileBig=iRsS3yCf4RUEwZ2GNdcq9g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330328535498, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图9, caption=29日22时30分—30日00时带状对流系统分裂过程的垂直剖面(a. 29日22时30分,b. 29日22时48分,c. 29日23时30分,d. 30日00时;色阶:相对湿度,箭矢:风速,红色等值线:40 dBz雷达反射率因子), figureFileSmall=H0FUrpg5BC4OQtHqKzm2Cw==, figureFileBig=iRsS3yCf4RUEwZ2GNdcq9g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330433393102, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 10, caption=The 1.5 km altitude radar reflectivity(shaded)and wind speed(vector)(a. 23:00 BT 29,b. 23:36 BT 29,c. 00:00 BT 30,d. 00:24 BT 30)during the splitting of the convective system(the main body of the convective system CMCS3 is marked by rectangles), figureFileSmall=+Cb4ZrTc/nChBl33QJgm0w==, figureFileBig=8YzMeaJ85IPPn6JkO7DCCA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330534056405, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图10, caption=1.5 km高度雷达反射率因子(色阶)和风场(箭矢)分布(a. 29日23时,b. 29日23时36分,c. 30日00时,d. 30日00时24分;黑色矩形框:对流CMCS3主体区域), figureFileSmall=+Cb4ZrTc/nChBl33QJgm0w==, figureFileBig=8YzMeaJ85IPPn6JkO7DCCA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330626331096, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 11, caption=Temperature at 150 m height(shaded),wind speed(vector)at 450 m height and 40 dBz radar reflectivity at 3 km altitude(red contour)at 01:00 BT 30 May(the brown rectangle indicates the spatial scope shown in Fig. 12, figureFileSmall=eP7MYEQN0LVWLPal7mR1Ew==, figureFileBig=U7pUYQCaBUfEYsTRNpaQmw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330739577308, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图11, caption=30日01时450 m风场和150 m温度场分布(色阶:温度,灰阶:地形高度,箭矢:风速,红色等值线:3 km高度处40 dBz雷达反射率因子,棕色矩形框代表图12范围), figureFileSmall=eP7MYEQN0LVWLPal7mR1Ew==, figureFileBig=U7pUYQCaBUfEYsTRNpaQmw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330844434911, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 12, caption=Wind speed(vector)at 450 m height and 35 dBz radar reflectivity at 3 km altitude(red contour)at selected times(a. 01:36 BT,b. 01:42 BT,c. 01:48 BT,d. 01:54 BT;gray shadings show the terrain;new convections are mostly initiated within purple rectangles), figureFileSmall=ayNrj1aUFcO/luTuu7WHyw==, figureFileBig=aAnRE52BeYxS2UYy5UkKVQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330915738082, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图12, caption=30日01时36—54分湘江河谷西侧逐6 min雷达回波和450 m风场(a. 01时36分,b. 01时42分,c. 01时48分,d. 01时54分;灰阶:地形高度,箭矢:风速,红色等值线:3 km高度处35 dBz雷达反射率因子,紫色框代表新对流触发位置), figureFileSmall=ayNrj1aUFcO/luTuu7WHyw==, figureFileBig=aAnRE52BeYxS2UYy5UkKVQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213330978652646, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Fig. 13, caption=A 3D schematic during the convection initiation in the west of the Xiangjiang river valley(the red vectors represent the low level southwesterly,yellow curved line represent the convergence line,dark blue vectors represent the moving direction of the cold pool), figureFileSmall=BxblDWxVsIgAo5Jh8RQSXA==, figureFileBig=tOiScDJHg0XoWbUIzpwPxQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213331054150124, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=图13, caption=对流在湘江河谷西侧触发的概念模型(红色箭头代表西南暖湿气流,黄色曲线代表辐合线,深蓝色箭头代表冷池移动方向), figureFileSmall=BxblDWxVsIgAo5Jh8RQSXA==, figureFileBig=tOiScDJHg0XoWbUIzpwPxQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1244213331146424816, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Cold pool height,ambient wind shear perpendicular to convection,cold pool vorticity circulation,and the ratio between cold pool vorticity and ambient wind shear from 21:00 BT to 22:30 BT

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
H(m)U(m/s) C C/∆U时间(北京时)
8008.895.740.6421:00
10008.866.510.7321:30
12008.618.400.9722:00
12008.658.060.9322:30
), ArticleFig(id=1244213331234505204, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1243976137760620571, articleId=1244213320513864703, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

29日21时00分—22时30分冷池高度、垂直于对流的风切变、冷池传播速度以及冷池传播速度与风切变的比值

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H(m)U(m/s) C C/∆U时间(北京时)
8008.895.740.6421:00
10008.866.510.7321:30
12008.618.400.9722:00
12008.658.060.9322:30
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一次湘江河谷极端强降水过程中对流组织形态精细化演变机制分析
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周灵康 1 , 康延臻 1 , 李毅 1 , 华珊 2
气象学报 | 论文 2025,83(5): 1139-1151
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气象学报 | 论文 2025, 83(5): 1139-1151
一次湘江河谷极端强降水过程中对流组织形态精细化演变机制分析
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周灵康1 , 康延臻1 , 李毅1, 华珊2
作者信息
  • 1.国防科技大学气象海洋学院,长沙,410000
  • 2.国家气象中心,北京,100081
  • 周灵康,主要从事中尺度强对流系统研究。E-mail:

通讯作者:

康延臻,主要从事中尺度强对流系统研究。E-mail:
Evolution of convective organization during an extremely heavy precipitation process in the Xiangjiang river valley:Mechanism analysis
Lingkang ZHOU1 , Yanzhen KANG1 , Yi LI1, Shan HUA2
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410000,China
  • 2.National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081,China
出版时间: 2025-10-10 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240095
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为深化对湘江河谷特殊地形下中尺度对流系统组织形态的认识,利用高时空分辨率的自动气象站观测资料、长沙气象站风廓线雷达资料、ERA5再分析资料并结合多普勒雷达分析系统四维变分同化资料,研究了2022年5月29日20时至30日06时(北京时)湘江河谷发生的一次极端强降水过程,重点分析了对流组织形态的演变过程。结果表明:此次极端强降水过程发生在700 hPa东北冷涡底部偏北干冷气流和西南暖湿气流的辐合区域。在起始阶段,簇状对流零星触发,并逐渐组织化为一条带状中尺度对流系统;在发展阶段,环境风垂直切变形成的正涡度和冷池产生的负涡度逐渐趋向平衡,配合西南急流的增强输送大量水汽,带状对流系统快速发展,1 h极端降水达103 mm;在维持阶段,带状对流系统内部上升气流产生的补偿下沉气流抑制了系统中部的对流生成,且下沉气流增强了对流中低层雨滴的蒸发并将西风水平动量下传至近地面,增强了带状对流系统东部的对流,导致对流系统分裂成多雨团中尺度对流系统;而后对流系统逐渐南移,低层暖湿气流受到雪峰山和明阳山阻挡产生绕流,新生对流多在湘江河谷西缘触发,移动至河谷东部后逐渐减弱,导致累计降水量的分布在湘江河谷呈西强东弱的特点。

中尺度对流系统  /  西南急流  /  湘江河谷

To deepen understanding of mesoscale convective systems under the special topography of Hunan province, this paper uses high spatiotemporal resolution data obtained from the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System to study the extreme precipitation process that occurred in Hunan province from 20:00 BT 29 May to 06:00 BT 30 May 2022. Results indicate that this extremely heavy precipitation event occurred in the convergence zone between dry, cold northerly airflow and warm, moist southwesterly jet at 700 hPa. In the initial stage, clustered convections were sporadically triggered and gradually organized into a banded mesoscale convection system. During the development of the banded mesoscale convection system, positive vorticity formed due to environmental vertical wind shear and negative vorticity generated by the cold pool gradually approached equilibrium, which, coupled with the enhancement of the southwesterly jet that transported a large amount of moisture, resulted in rapid development of the banded mesoscale convection system with extreme precipitation reaching 103 mm in one hour. In the maintenance stage, the compensatory downdraft for the updraft within the banded mesoscale convection system suppressed convection generation in the central part of the system. Additionally, the downdraft enhanced raindrops evaporation in the middle and lower levels and transferred horizontal westward momentum to the near-surface, intensifying convection in the eastern part of the banded mesoscale convection system and resulting in splitting of the convection system into a clustered mesoscale convective system. As the convection moved southward, the low-level southwesterly was blocked by Mingyang and Xuefeng mountains. As a result, new convections were mostly triggered on the west side of the Xiangjiang river valley, resulting in larger total precipitation there.

Mesoscale convective system  /  Southwesterly jet  /  Xiangjiang river valley
周灵康, 康延臻, 李毅, 华珊. 一次湘江河谷极端强降水过程中对流组织形态精细化演变机制分析. 气象学报, 2025 , 83 (5) : 1139 -1151 . DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240095
Lingkang ZHOU, Yanzhen KANG, Yi LI, Shan HUA. Evolution of convective organization during an extremely heavy precipitation process in the Xiangjiang river valley:Mechanism analysis[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2025 , 83 (5) : 1139 -1151 . DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240095
中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective System,MCS)具有水平尺度小、生命周期短、突发性强的特点,发展旺盛的MCS能够导致雷暴大风、短时强降水、冰雹和龙卷等强对流天气,造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡(Zheng,et al,2013Ma,et al,2021Xue,et al,2022)。相对于平原地区,地形复杂的山区MCS发生的频率更高,触发和维持机制更为复杂(Houze,2012)。湖南省位于长江中上游经济区和东南沿海经济区之间,又位于第二阶梯与第三阶梯的交界处,地理位置十分重要,地形特征突出,其东、南、西三面环山,中部为南—北向的湘江河谷,河谷北部显著变宽,为洞庭湖平原,省内主要城市(如长沙、岳阳、常德、株洲、湘潭、衡阳、永州、郴州等)都位于湘江河谷中,整体地形呈现出向东北开口的“马蹄形”特征。湖南省是强对流天气的多发区,如2022年6月1—6日,受中尺度强对流系统影响,湖南全省经历连续的强降水过程,导致179.45万人受灾,因灾死亡10人,直接经济损失达40.74亿元(数据来源于湖南省应急管理厅2022年6月9日发布的《湖南防汛抗灾情况通报》)。但长期以来,对于湖南省MCS的发展演变机制缺乏深入研究,尤其是独特的湘江河谷地形特征对于MCS的影响机制尚不明确,从而制约了强降水预报准确率。因此,加强对湘江河谷典型MCS触发机制和发展演变的研究,有助于改善湖南省强降水的预报水平,对社会经济发展和人民财产安全具有重要意义。
MCS组织形态的演变往往涉及到大尺度环流背景和中尺度触发维持机制。研究表明:当大尺度环流背景中的天气系统的类型、强度和移动发生变化时,水汽和不稳定度会受到显著影响,从而影响MCS的强度。例如,梅雨锋或者与梅雨锋相似的东北—西南向切变线在长江中下游地区南北摆动时,就会导致MCS组织形态和对流强度发生变化。除此之外,中尺度触发机制也不容忽视,例如地形、冷池等。地形通过对环境气流的动力和热力作用,影响中尺度对流系统的发展演变。在动力作用方面,气流经过地形时可能产生强迫抬升或绕流,也可能被地形阻挡而发生阻塞,从而触发对流(Medina,et al,20032010Tu,et al,2014Tao,et al,2019)。Xia等(2019)对发生于中国太行山区的一次特大暴雨案例进行分析,发现地形坡度不同,气流流向与地形夹角不同,其产生的对流形态和结构也有不同。冷池通常由降水蒸发冷却形成,中尺度系统的冷池出流可以抬升环境暖湿气流,从而在出流边界处触发新的对流,这一现象已被来自全球的观测和模拟结果证实(Corfidi,2003Luo,et al,20142015Jeong,et al,2016Li,et al,2017He,et al,2018黄小彦等,2020)。另外,还需要考虑环境风垂直切变,它可以显著影响对流的组织化,从而造成对流形态改变(郑淋淋等,2016)。实际上,冷池出流与环境风垂直切变之间的相对大小会显著影响对流系统的发展,即著名的RKW理论(Rotunno,et al,1988),但是RKW理论是在众多假设条件下高度简化的结果,分析对流组织形态的发生、演变过程还要深入考虑冷池的精细化发展演变和不同高度上风垂直切变大小。
目前,针对MCS组织形态的研究主要集中在某一种类型的分析,研究区域多集中在华东、华南和华北地区(Meng,et al,2013Zheng,et al,2013孙婧超等,2019Li,et al,2021Xue,et al,2022),针对湖南MCS的组织形态演变研究相对较少,尤其是对于造成极端强降水的MCS在湘江河谷移动过程中组织形态的精细化演变鲜有报道。本研究选择2022年5月29日20时—30日06时(北京时,下同)的一次极端强降水过程(简称“5.29”强降水过程),在此次过程中,长沙市望城区洞阳村站、开福区青竹湖街道站1 h降水分别达125.3和108.7 mm,接近湖南省历史极值;宁乡市横市、鸟鸣、石坝子站,望城区裕农、洞阳村站3 h降水量接近200年一遇。在“5.29”强降水过程中,受到湘江河谷的影响,MCS经历了簇状对流组织化为带状对流再分裂为多雨团对流的过程,对流组织形态复杂多变,与地形密切相关,导致强降水的时空特征差异显著,具有非常重要的研究意义。本研究拟通过多源高时空分辨率的观测资料和变分多普勒雷达分析系统(Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System,VDRAS)四维变分同化初始场资料,在对“5.29”强降水过程中MCS组织形态精细化发展演变分析的基础上,研究极端降水的成因,探讨对流触发、维持与湘江河谷地形之间的关系,加深对复杂地形条件下MCS触发、维持机制的理解,为提高强降水的预报水平提供理论支撑。
本研究中使用资料的所有观测站点分布如图1所示。研究区域内共有142个国家级和4396个区域级地面自动气象观测站,根据资料中的质量控制码剔除从29日20时至30日06时存在缺测或其他异常情况的站点,最后保留了133个国家级和3664个区域级地面自动气象观测站的降水数据,利用上述站点的逐5 min降水资料获取“5.29”强降水过程的降水实况;利用ERA5(ECMWF Reanalysis v5)再分析资料和探空资料分析本次过程的环流背景。
在对“5.29”强降水过程的降水分布和环流背景分析的基础上,利用位于长沙和湘潭的两部S波段多普勒天气雷达资料分析对流系统的结构形态,两部雷达相距约60 km,对流结构快速变化的阶段所处位置与两部雷达均相距100 km以内。将雷达的体扫数据进行线性插值转换为以雷达位置为原点的三维高斯格点数据,格点水平分辨率为1 km,覆盖半径为200 km,垂直方向分为60层,每层间隔500 m,以展现对流系统的演变过程。利用VDRAS系统(Sun,et al,2010陈明轩等,2011),对长沙和湘潭两部多普勒天气雷达资料进行快速变分同化分析,得到高时空分辨率的同化数据集,数据水平分辨率为2 km,垂直方向分为30层,最底层高度为175 m,每层间隔300 m,利用该数据集结合长沙站风廓线雷达观测进一步分析对流系统内部精细化的三维动力、热力结构以及组织形态演变机制。
“5.29”强降水过程的累计降水量分布显示≥50 mm的强降水区主要位于湘江河谷内(海拔≤200 m)(图2b),且≥100 mm的站点在河谷西侧明显更多,表明河谷内西侧降水强于东侧。在降水较强的区域选择3个代表性站点,分析其降水时间演变(图2a)可以发现,最北侧的P5189站降水最强,23—00时降水量达103 mm,呈现单峰特点,降水在1 h内迅速增强和减弱,表明该站主要受一个强对流系统影响,对应雷达回波(图3b)中的强带状回波;位于强降水区西侧的P4567和P4833站降水超过4 h,在此期间降水强度反复增强和减弱,降水量呈多峰特点,表明有多个对流单体依次经过站点,对应雷达回波(图3d)中的多个单体回波。
通过雷达回波(图3a)可知,5月29日21时,雪峰山东麓出现零散的对流簇,23时,对流迅速发展增强,对流簇组织化为一条对流雨带(图3b),造成了P5189站的强降水。带状对流系统形成后向东南移动并逐渐分裂(图3c)。30日02时,带状系统分裂成多个雨团组成的系统,即多雨团对流系统(图3d),雨团集中在湘江河谷西侧,相对孤立的雨团向西移动,相继经过P4567和P4833站,导致该处降水反复增强和减弱,而河谷中部和东部的新生对流少,旧对流强度逐渐减弱形成大面积层状云区,降水相对较弱。30日04时后对流系统开始分散,回波峰值减小,随后逐渐减弱消散(图3e—f)。
从雷达回波的演变可以得出本次强降水过程中对流形态的演变分为2个阶段:一是29日20时—30日00时,以对流单体触发并组织化为带状对流系统,从而造成降水迅速增强;二是30日00—04时,带状对流系统分裂形成多个雨团为特征的多雨团对流系统,造成站点降水反复增强和减弱。
2022年5月29日20时700 hPa天气图中湖南北部存在东北—西南向的切变线,切变线北侧为东北冷涡后部干冷气流,切变线南侧为副热带高压西侧的西南暖湿气流(图4),850 hPa与700 hPa形势相似(图略)。结合20时的探空资料,切变线北侧的宜昌站探空(图5a)显示900—600 hPa盛行偏北风,且700—600 hPa温度露点差普遍大于30℃,为明显的干区,对应了切变线北侧的干冷气流;位于切变线南侧的郴州站探空(图5c)显示,低层为西南风,中高层为西风,整层大气的露点温度差较小,700 hPa以下温度露点差普遍小于4℃,有充足的水汽,对应于切变线南侧的暖湿气流,此时郴州地区的对流有效位能为1429.3 J/kg,有利于对流发展,但同时对流抑制能量为88.8 J/kg,抬升凝结高度位于877.48 hPa,自由对流高度位于802.45 hPa,表明需要合适的抬升机制才能触发对流;长沙站受到强对流的影响,600 hPa以上的探空资料缺失,但仍能分析出长沙低层空气几乎饱和(图5b),自由对流高度位于895.09 hPa(约830 m),十分利于对流发展。综上所述,“5.29”强降水过程发生的天气背景为东北冷涡后部中低层冷空气南下与西太平洋副热带高压外围西南暖湿气流相遇,是湖南比较典型的强降水天气形势(陈龙等,2024)。
天气形势表明此时的背景场有利于对流的生成,然而在有利的环流背景下,对流组织形态的精细化演变机制如何?下文将利用高时空分辨率雷达回波结合VDRAS资料进行细致分析。
5月29日20时30分,零散的对流簇集中在28°和29°N附近触发(图6a),经过30 min的发展,逐渐组织化为东—西走向,长约100 km的带状中尺度对流系统(Banded Mesoscale Convective System,BMCS),记为BMCS1(图6b),BMCS1南部的零散对流簇也逐渐增强,在22时前后发展成一条呈东北—西南走向、长约200 km的带状中尺度对流系统BMCS2(图6c),之后BMCS2持续增强,在经过P5182站时产生了103 mm/h的极端短时强降水,而BMCS1在此期间逐渐减弱消散(图6d)。
从BMCS2形成前后的风场分布(图7)可以发现,BMCS2的增强伴随着其南部850 hPa低空急流的增强,低空急流在21时出现后,影响范围不断增大,最大风速从12 m/s增强到17 m/s(图7b—d),低空急流增强了BMCS2前缘环境气流的辐合强度,输送了充足的水汽并增强了环境风垂直切变造成BMCS2迅速发展,也为P5186站的短时极端强降水提供了条件。根据RKW理论,用判断冷池产生的水平涡度C和垂直于带状对流的低层风切变(0—3 km)∆U(∆U以远离对流系统方向为正)的平衡关系来诊断BMCS2的发展机制,当C/∆U>1(C/∆U<1)时,冷池产生的水平涡度强(弱)于环境风垂直切变产生的水平涡度,对流将向冷池方向(冷池外侧)倾斜;两种情况都不利于对流的发展。当C/∆U≈1时,冷池内部环流与环境风切变环流平衡,对流接近直立,有利于对流发展。根据Weisman(1993)和Rotunno等(1988)的工作,冷池产生的水平涡度可以表示为
C=gθ0ΔθH
式中,H为冷池的深度(厚度),θ0是对流带前方的平均环境位温,Δθ是平均环境位温θ0和冷池内平均位温(θ)的差,g为重力加速度。取对流系统前缘后侧约10 km处一个长40 km、宽20 km的方形区域来计算冷池内平均位温θ,取垂直于对流系统前侧约70 km处一个长40 km、宽20 km的方形区域来计算平均环境位温θ0Meng,et al,2012),具体区域如图7d。由于长沙的风廓线雷达处于冷池的中心,冷池的厚度可以利用风廓线雷达分析得到从计算结果(表1)可知,22时之前,由于BMCS2处冷池强度较弱,冷池内部和环境温差较小,导致C相较于环境风切变偏低,C/∆U较小,随着冷池的增强,C逐渐增大,到22时,C/∆U ≈1,冷池与环境风切变接近平衡,十分利于对流的发展,再配合西南暖湿气流输送的大量水汽,使得BMCS2在此时强烈发展,同时BMCS2向东南方向的移动速度约为7 m/s,移动比较缓慢,导致局部强降水持续,可解释在该时段附近P5189站的极端降水。注意到从20时30分—22时30分,BMCS2发展的过程中,BMCS1逐渐减弱消散,从图7可以发现BMCS1附近水平风从偏西风逐渐转为西北风,表明南下的偏北干冷气流逐渐影响BMCS1,同时BMCS2的发展对西南急流起到了阻塞作用,导致西南暖湿气流无法穿过BMCS2到达BMCS1,切断了BMCS1的水汽和不稳定能量来源,减弱了BMCS1附近的辐合强度,造成BMCS1的动力和热力条件均不利于BMCS1发展,因此逐渐减弱消散。
对流带BMCS2的移动和增强主要与西南急流增强和冷池与环境风切变平衡有关,但影响带状对流系统演变成为多雨团对流系统的因素还不明确。在30日00时前后,带状对流系统逐渐从中部分裂成两个团状中尺度对流系统(Clustered Mesoscale Convective System,CMCS),分别记为CMCS3、CMCS4(图8a、b),因此,带状中尺度对流系统逐渐演变成多雨团中尺度对流系统。到30日01时,CMCS4分裂形成2个较小的团状中尺度对流系统,分别记为CMCS5、CMCS6,同时在CMCS6西侧有新的团状中尺度对流系统CMCS7生成,此时CMCS3已经远离左侧3个CMCS,强度逐渐减弱,在多雨团中尺度对流系统东北部逐渐形成明显的层状云区(图8c)。30日02时,新的团状中尺度对流系统CMCS8、CMCS9在CMCS7西侧陆续生成,CMCS6减弱消散,CMCS5逐渐向东移动(图8d)。整个多雨团中尺度对流系统的演变过程表现为:新的团状中尺度对流系统于旧系统西侧生成,在向东北方向移动的过程中,强度逐渐减弱,并形成大面积的层状云区。
针对BMCS2分裂成CMCS3、CMCS4的过程,通过局部的风场剖面(图9a)可以发现,对流内部上升气流受到高层偏西风的影响产生的补偿下沉气流位于系统前侧(东侧),导致BMCS2的中部存在源自西侧对流上升运动的补偿下沉气流(图9b),下沉气流裹挟了高层的干气流,相对湿度明显更低,抑制了BMCS2中部区域的对流触发,导致BMCS2中部对流显著减弱(图9c干燥下沉气流增强了中低层的雨滴蒸发(图9c、d),在接近地面时形成强的密度流,强的密度流配合带有水平西风动量的下沉气流到达地面,显著增强近地面的偏西风,29日23时00分—30日00时24分,BMCS2中部的西北气流逐渐加速(图10a、d),风速最大达近10 m/s。强的西北风加速BMCS2东部对流东移,进一步增强了BMCS2东侧辐合,从而使得BMCS2东部辐合上升运动增强,对流强度增强,而在下沉气流的影响下,BMCS2中部对流逐渐减弱。缺少新的对流生成,BMCS2便开始出现分裂。
CMCS4演变成CMCS5、CMCS6的过程与BMCS2分裂为CMCS3、CMCS4相似,并且CMCS6在东移的过程中逐渐减弱消散(图8b—d)。在这个过程中,对流系统西侧持续有新对流从后部触发,对流单体从对流带西侧新生后受环境风引导向东北方向移动,即对流的后向建立机制。该机制主导了CMCS7、CMCS8、CMCS9对流带的形成。
根据30日01时的低层风场,可以分析出对流系统中部的冷池出流移动受到湘江河谷地形的影响(图11),冷池出流沿河谷向南移动,在东—西方向受到地形阻挡。值得注意的是,低层环境气流在从湖南西南部进入湘江河谷时受到明阳山的阻挡,分裂为左右2支气流,左支气流北上至27.4°N后受到雪峰山阻挡向东偏转,与对流系统的冷池出流区交汇,从图12可知,西南气流的左支绕流沿雪峰山山麓右转下山进入湘江河谷后,存在明显的减速辐合,从而持续触发对流单体产生新的对流系统(CMCS7、CMCS8、CMCS9),并在湘江河谷西侧产生持续的强降水,导致P4567和P4833站降水反复增强和减弱,而对流带的中部和东部少有低层西南气流的流入,新生对流较少,所以中部和东部的对流强度逐渐削弱并产生较大面积的层云区,降水相对较弱。这解释了在强降水区中,在雪峰山山麓一侧的西侧强降水区累计降水量超过100 mm的站点数量明显多于东侧的原因。
本研究选择2022年5月29日20时—30日06时发生于湘江河谷的一次极端强降水过程,利用天气雷达、风廓线雷达资料、自动气象站观测等多源观测资料结合VDRAS四维变分同化资料对造成强降水的中尺度对流系统的形态演变机制以及强降水成因进行分析得到以下结论:
(1)本次对流过程形态演变多样,起始阶段为带状中尺度对流系统为主,之后逐渐分裂为一个多雨团中尺度对流系统。强降水主要分布在湘江河谷内,且河谷内西侧降水强于中部和东部。
(2)本次强降水过程发生在700 hPa东北冷涡的偏北干冷气流和西南暖湿气流交汇的环流背景下,在交汇处产生强的水平风切变和强的辐合区,为对流触发提供了有利条件。西南暖湿气流输送了充足的水汽,是对流发展和维持的重要因素。
(3)对流的演变过程可以分为2个阶段:簇状对流触发并组织化为带状中尺度对流系统;带状中尺度对流系统分裂形成多雨团中尺度对流系统。低层西南气流的增强是第一阶段对流系统发展和极端降水产生的重要原因,利用RKW理论定量分析出在该阶段C/∆U ≈1,冷池和环境风切变的环流基本平衡,有利于对流BMCS2发展。第二阶段对流系统的分裂与对流系统中部存在携带西风动量的下沉气流和密度流共同作用产生的气流加速有关,强的西北风会加速BMCS2东部对流的东移,同时在下沉气流区对流的生成受到抑制,对流前部逐渐分裂。在对流系统西部,低层西南气流受到明阳山、雪峰山的影响,主要在湘江河谷西侧与对流系统的冷池汇合,使得新对流单体在河谷西侧通过后向建立机制持续触发(图13),产生持续的降水,导致湘江河谷西侧的强降水,而对流单体移动到河谷中部和东部时强度已逐渐减弱,导致河谷中部和东部降水相对更少。
  • 湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2025JJ50191)
  • 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42205007)
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2025年第83卷第5期
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doi: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240095
  • 接收时间:2024-08-04
  • 首发时间:2026-03-27
  • 出版时间:2025-10-10
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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-04
  • 修回日期:2025-01-20
基金
湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2025JJ50191)
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42205007)
作者信息
    1.国防科技大学气象海洋学院,长沙,410000
    2.国家气象中心,北京,100081

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康延臻,主要从事中尺度强对流系统研究。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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