Article(id=1153022349071868005, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, issueId=1153022343707353180, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.2095–1469.2025.03.11, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1708272000000, receivedDateStr=2024-02-19, revisedDate=1715443200000, revisedDateStr=2024-05-12, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752831550137, onlineDateStr=2025-07-18, pubDate=1747670400000, pubDateStr=2025-05-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752831550137, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752831550137, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752831550137, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1153022343707353180, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, year='2025', volume='15', issue='3', pageStart='263', pageEnd='426', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1752831548859, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1757654056467, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1173249406712300330, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, issueId=1153022343707353180, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1173249406712300331, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, issueId=1153022343707353180, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=385, endPage=394, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1153022349378052198, articleId=1153022349071868005, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, language=EN, title=An Optimized Parameter Estimation Method for the Mixed Weibull Distribution Based on a Novel B&R-SSA Algorithm, columnId=1153756966938731297, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Automotive Engineering, columnName=Other Technologies, runingTitle=null, highlight=

The mixed Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling failure distributions and predicting durability. In practical engineering development, accurate parameter estimation for the model is critically important. Therefore, improving the estimation accuracy of the mixed Weibull distribution has become an urgent and challenging issue in the field. Based on the original mixed Weibull distribution, this paper proposes an optimized parameter estimation approach using a novel B&R-SSA algorithm. Firstly, this method establishes an iterative optimization model to estimate the location, scale, and shape parameters based on the method of successive approximation. To address the low efficiency and tendency of the original Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) to become trapped in local optima, a novel B&R-SSA algorithm is proposed by introducing a “betrayal” behavior mechanism and an adaptive inertia weight strategy. This improved algorithm is then applied to solve the iterative model. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations and engineering case studies are conducted. Both the simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves good accuracy and computational efficiency in estimating the parameters of the mixed Weibull distribution.

, articleAbstract=

The mixed Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling failure distributions and predicting durability. In practical engineering development, accurate parameter estimation for the model is critically important. Therefore, improving the estimation accuracy of the mixed Weibull distribution has become an urgent and challenging issue in the field. Based on the original mixed Weibull distribution, this paper proposes an optimized parameter estimation approach using a novel B&R-SSA algorithm. Firstly, this method establishes an iterative optimization model to estimate the location, scale, and shape parameters based on the method of successive approximation. To address the low efficiency and tendency of the original Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) to become trapped in local optima, a novel B&R-SSA algorithm is proposed by introducing a “betrayal” behavior mechanism and an adaptive inertia weight strategy. This improved algorithm is then applied to solve the iterative model. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations and engineering case studies are conducted. Both the simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves good accuracy and computational efficiency in estimating the parameters of the mixed Weibull distribution.

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混合威布尔分布被广泛用于模拟失效分布和耐久性预测。在实际工程开发过程中对模型参数的准确估计是非常关键的。因此,提高混合威布尔分布的估计精度已成为领域内亟需解决的难题。在原始混合威布尔分布的基础上,提出了一种基于新型B&R-SSA算法的混合威布尔参数估计的优化求解方法。该方法首先基于逐次逼近的方法建立位置、尺寸和形状参数的迭代优化模型;然后通过运用引入“背叛”行为和自适应惯性权重机制,用于解决原始樽海鞘算法(SSA)求解效率低、易于陷入局部最优的问题,进而提出了一种新型B&R-SSA算法,并运用该算法对迭代模型进行求解;最后进行蒙特卡洛模拟仿真试验和工程实例试验。仿真和试验结果均表明,该方法在估计混合威布尔分布参数求解方面具有较好的精度和计算效率。

, articleAbstract=

混合威布尔分布被广泛用于模拟失效分布和耐久性预测。在实际工程开发过程中对模型参数的准确估计是非常关键的。因此,提高混合威布尔分布的估计精度已成为领域内亟需解决的难题。在原始混合威布尔分布的基础上,提出了一种基于新型B&R-SSA算法的混合威布尔参数估计的优化求解方法。该方法首先基于逐次逼近的方法建立位置、尺寸和形状参数的迭代优化模型;然后通过运用引入“背叛”行为和自适应惯性权重机制,用于解决原始樽海鞘算法(SSA)求解效率低、易于陷入局部最优的问题,进而提出了一种新型B&R-SSA算法,并运用该算法对迭代模型进行求解;最后进行蒙特卡洛模拟仿真试验和工程实例试验。仿真和试验结果均表明,该方法在估计混合威布尔分布参数求解方面具有较好的精度和计算效率。

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赵闵清(1993-),男,江西宜春人,博士,工程师,主要研究方向为机械优化设计、优化设计算法。 E-mail:

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赵闵清(1993-),男,江西宜春人,博士,工程师,主要研究方向为机械优化设计、优化设计算法。 E-mail:

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赵闵清(1993-),男,江西宜春人,博士,工程师,主要研究方向为机械优化设计、优化设计算法。 E-mail:

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articleId=1153022349071868005, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=124, issue=null, pageStart=107650.1, pageEnd=107650.8, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[18], rfOrder=24, authorNames=CANDELARIO G, CORDERO A, TORREGROSA J R, journalName=Applied Mathematics Letters, refType=null, unstructuredReference= CANDELARIO G CORDERO A TORREGROSA J R,et al.An Optimal and Low Computational Cost Fractional Newton-Type Method for Solving Nonlinear Equations[J].Applied Mathematics Letters2022124:107650.1-107650.8., articleTitle=An Optimal and Low Computational Cost Fractional Newton-Type Method for Solving Nonlinear Equations, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1175545098692608424, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, articleId=1153022349071868005, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2011, volume=33, issue=12, pageStart=1533, pageEnd=1538, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=25, authorNames=CAIZA P D, UMMENHOFER T, journalName=International Journal of Fatigue, refType=null, unstructuredReference= CAIZA P D UMMENHOFER T.General Probability Weighted Moments for the Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution and Their Application in S-N Curves Modelling[J].International Journal of Fatigue201133(12):1533-1538., articleTitle=General Probability Weighted Moments for the Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution and Their Application in S-N Curves Modelling, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1175545098763911593, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, articleId=1153022349071868005, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=43, issue=3, pageStart=21, pageEnd=30, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[20], rfOrder=26, authorNames=高岳林, 杨钦文, 王晓峰, journalName=郑州大学学报(工学版), refType=null, unstructuredReference=高岳林,杨钦文,王晓峰,等.新型群体智能优化算法综述[J].郑州大学学报(工学版)202243(3):21-30., articleTitle=新型群体智能优化算法综述, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1175545098860380586, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, 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figureFileBig=rNEHz97lkjr/4+osFJZJ9A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1175545095580434809, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, articleId=1153022349071868005, language=CN, label=图7, caption=误差曲线, figureFileSmall=onYPkxwuExZ1XpW7ulkOfw==, figureFileBig=rNEHz97lkjr/4+osFJZJ9A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1175545095693681020, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1152916057816748034, articleId=1153022349071868005, language=EN, label=null, caption=null, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
方法 n=5 n=10 n=15 n=20
CCWP 17.90 10.60 6.90 4.80
MLE 31.40 27.30 19.40 9.60
PWM 21.60 13.20 9.70 8.30
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MAD指标下PM的提升比例

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方法 n=5 n=10 n=15 n=20
CCWP 17.90 10.60 6.90 4.80
MLE 31.40 27.30 19.40 9.60
PWM 21.60 13.20 9.70 8.30
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方法 n=5 n=10 n=15 n=20
CCWP 21.50 15.30 7.40 5.90
MLE 15.40 12.20 7.90 2.30
PWM 13.60 11.70 9.80 5.70
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MSD指标下PM的提升比例

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方法 n=5 n=10 n=15 n=20
CCWP 21.50 15.30 7.40 5.90
MLE 15.40 12.20 7.90 2.30
PWM 13.60 11.70 9.80 5.70
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序号 故障时间/h
1 153.2
2 168.4
3 174.5
4 175.7
5 192.6
6 198.6
7 214.6
8 247.1
9 270.5
10 393.6
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AEB功能触发异常的节点数据记录表

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序号 故障时间/h
1 153.2
2 168.4
3 174.5
4 175.7
5 192.6
6 198.6
7 214.6
8 247.1
9 270.5
10 393.6
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基于新型B&R-SSA算法的混合威布尔参数估计优化方法
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赵闵清 1, 4 , 姜维 2, 3 , 黄子龙 2, 3 , 熊德明 4 , 龚春辉 4 , 程小强 4
汽车工程学报 | 其他 2025,15(3): 385-394
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汽车工程学报 | 其他 2025, 15(3): 385-394
基于新型B&R-SSA算法的混合威布尔参数估计优化方法
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赵闵清1, 4 , 姜维2, 3, 黄子龙2, 3, 熊德明4, 龚春辉4, 程小强4
作者信息
  • 1 西安工业大学 机电工程学院,西安 710021
  • 2 中国汽车工程研究院股份有限公司,重庆 401122
  • 3 中汽院智能网联汽车检测中心(湖南)有限公司,长沙 410000
  • 4 江铃汽车股份有限公司 产品开发技术中心,南昌 330000
  • 赵闵清(1993-),男,江西宜春人,博士,工程师,主要研究方向为机械优化设计、优化设计算法。 E-mail:

An Optimized Parameter Estimation Method for the Mixed Weibull Distribution Based on a Novel B&R-SSA Algorithm
Minqing ZHAO1, 4 , Wei JIANG2, 3, Zilong HUANG2, 3, Deming XIONG4, Chunhui GONG4, Xiaoqiang CHENG4
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Xi'an Technological University,Xi'an 710021,China
  • 2 China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 401122,China
  • 3 Intelligent and Connected Vehicle Testing Center of China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.,Ltd.(Hunan),Changsha 410000,China
  • 4 Product Development Technology Center,Jiangling Motors Corporation Limited,Nanchang 330000,China
出版时间: 2025-05-20 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2095–1469.2025.03.11
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混合威布尔分布被广泛用于模拟失效分布和耐久性预测。在实际工程开发过程中对模型参数的准确估计是非常关键的。因此,提高混合威布尔分布的估计精度已成为领域内亟需解决的难题。在原始混合威布尔分布的基础上,提出了一种基于新型B&R-SSA算法的混合威布尔参数估计的优化求解方法。该方法首先基于逐次逼近的方法建立位置、尺寸和形状参数的迭代优化模型;然后通过运用引入“背叛”行为和自适应惯性权重机制,用于解决原始樽海鞘算法(SSA)求解效率低、易于陷入局部最优的问题,进而提出了一种新型B&R-SSA算法,并运用该算法对迭代模型进行求解;最后进行蒙特卡洛模拟仿真试验和工程实例试验。仿真和试验结果均表明,该方法在估计混合威布尔分布参数求解方面具有较好的精度和计算效率。

可靠性  /  混合威布尔分布  /  樽海鞘算法  /  参数估计  /  蒙特卡洛模拟

The mixed Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling failure distributions and predicting durability. In practical engineering development, accurate parameter estimation for the model is critically important. Therefore, improving the estimation accuracy of the mixed Weibull distribution has become an urgent and challenging issue in the field. Based on the original mixed Weibull distribution, this paper proposes an optimized parameter estimation approach using a novel B&R-SSA algorithm. Firstly, this method establishes an iterative optimization model to estimate the location, scale, and shape parameters based on the method of successive approximation. To address the low efficiency and tendency of the original Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) to become trapped in local optima, a novel B&R-SSA algorithm is proposed by introducing a “betrayal” behavior mechanism and an adaptive inertia weight strategy. This improved algorithm is then applied to solve the iterative model. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations and engineering case studies are conducted. Both the simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves good accuracy and computational efficiency in estimating the parameters of the mixed Weibull distribution.

reliability  /  mixed weibull distribution  /  salp swarm algorithm  /  parameter estimation  /  Monte Carlo simulation
赵闵清, 姜维, 黄子龙, 熊德明, 龚春辉, 程小强. 基于新型B&R-SSA算法的混合威布尔参数估计优化方法. 汽车工程学报, 2025 , 15 (3) : 385 -394 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095–1469.2025.03.11
Minqing ZHAO, Wei JIANG, Zilong HUANG, Deming XIONG, Chunhui GONG, Xiaoqiang CHENG. An Optimized Parameter Estimation Method for the Mixed Weibull Distribution Based on a Novel B&R-SSA Algorithm[J]. Chinese Journal of Automotive Engineering, 2025 , 15 (3) : 385 -394 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095–1469.2025.03.11
从工程角度看,产品的设计、生产和应用都必须对其可靠性进行分析。常用的方法是对一批产品进行可靠性寿命试验,收集失效数据进行统计分析,从而对产品的可靠性进行评估。在诸多功能可靠性评估技术中,连续概率分布模型被广泛认为能较好适用于描述连续变量取值的问题。与离散概率分布模型不同,连续概率分布模型适用于随机变量取值是连续的情况,因此,被广泛应用于产品寿命及可靠性评估的求解过程中,通过参数估计、模型构建、数据采集、故障预测等方法实现对产品可靠性的准确评估[1]。而威布尔分布模型是诸多连续概率分布模型中的典型,因其对描述产品生命周期的变化情况时具有较高灵敏度和可信性的特点而被广泛关注和应用。
然而单一威布尔分布在面对多维度或未知维度失效数据时存在局限性,而混合威布尔分布被大量证明能较好解决单一威布尔分布所存在的假设局限性、风险估计不充分性以及复杂场景不适应性等缺陷[2]。与此同时,由于成本的限制和产品可靠性的提高,在测试过程中存在很少收集到失效数据的实际情况[3]。这导致现有方法的参数估计偏差较大,不利于可靠性分析。在这种情况下,有必要探索新的方法来提高混合威布尔分布的估计精度。为此,大量的专家学者对此进行了深入研究和讨论。
在混合威布尔参数估计方面。董力等[4]通过变换决策变量上下限、引入惩罚因子和保存最优个体等策略改进传统遗传算法,并利用改进后的遗传优化算法对混合威布尔分布的非线性最小二乘优化模型进行求解,并通过实例论证了方法的有效性,但该研究没有将所提出的方法与最新产品进行对比;张丽平等[5]对广义逐步混合删失方案下逆威布尔分布的参数推断开展研究,从频率学派和贝叶斯学派两个角度讨论了逆威布尔分布的参数推断问题,但该研究缺乏对可视工程实例的论证;LEI Weisheng等[6]针对陶瓷强度统计问题分别分析了普通威布尔分布函数和威布尔统计断裂理论的适用性,并通过不同陶瓷的数值和实际强度试验,对棱柱梁单轴弯曲中的三参数Weibull统计断裂理论进行了重新制定和验证,然而该研究没有对混合威布尔分布及离散威布尔分布进行讨论和对比。
在威布尔分布的参数寻优求解问题中,群体智能算法因其计算效率高、计算效能优越的特点而运用广泛。相关学者也对其进行了大量研究,例如,池阔等[7]采用布谷鸟算法(CS)对威布尔分布参数估计进行求解,但其对于估计精度提升的机理没有进行详细阐述;TAVAKOLI-KAKHKI等[8]提出了一种基于积分的方法来提取有噪声阶跃响应数据,用于估计简单分数阶模型的阶数和参数,然而这种方法在面对较少样本数和数据删失样本时表现不佳;LIN Jian等[9]提出了混合随机分形搜索算法,并证明了该算法的可靠效能;PENG Yuexi,等[10]提出了一种改进的粒子群优化算法来确定离散分形阶混沌系统的参数。然而,这些研究在混合威布尔分布模型中的性能还有待提升。
基于上述研究的不足,本文提出了一种用于混合威布尔参数估计的优化方法。该方法首先通过推导定位参数与试验样本之间的理论模型,构建定位参数的迭代模型;然后,构造相应尺度参数和形状参数的迭代模型;最后,经过多次迭代可以估计出模型参数。与传统方法相比,该方法具有精度高、鲁棒性好、不需要先验信息等显著优势。
混合威布尔分布是一种由多个威布尔分布组合而成的概率分布模型。模型的显著优点是能拟合多维度数据,处理具有多个子群体或不同行为模式的数据以及具有较高的数据敏感度。但是其存在参数设置复杂、求解困难以及泛化性能不良等缺陷[11]。针对这些缺陷,本文基于混合威布尔分布的基础模型开展了参数估计迭代模型的研究。
假设寿命数据中存在m种不同失效模式,且每种失效模式的威布尔分布都遵循威布尔分布的概率密度函数形式,且相互独立、彼此互不影响。其故障密度函数ft)、累计故障函数Ft)和故障率函数 λt)分别如式(1)~(3)所示[12]
f t = i = 1 m ω i × ( β i t β i - 1 / α i β i - 1 ) e - ( t - γ i / α i ) β i
F t = 1 - i = 1 m ω i e - ( t - γ i / α i ) β i
λ t = i = 1 m ω i ( β i t β i - 1 / α i β i - 1 ) e - ( t - γ i / α i ) β i i = 1 m ω i e - ( t - γ i / α i ) β i  
式中: γ iαiβi分别为第i个单一威布尔分布的位置、尺度和形状参数,3个参量均用于描述不同威布尔分布之间的差异;ωi为第i个单一威布尔分布的混合权重,每个威布尔分布的权重之和为1,表示每个分布在混合威布尔分布模型中所占的比例;t为部件故障时间。
故障时间的可靠性公式为:
R t = e - ( t - γ i / α i ) β i
混合威布尔分布的参数通常是基于实际样本数据拟合估计获得。对于混合威布尔参数估计而言,样本容量越小,位置参数 γ i与样本最小值之间的差异就越大,且 γ i始终处于 0 , m i n   ( t i )之间[13]。基于这项性质,本文的主要建模思路是采用逐次逼近的方法首先构建样本量与位置参数 γ i之间的关系式,然后,利用位置参数的初始值0来估计尺度和形状参数的初始数值,并利用其迭代模型来更新位置参数,最终优化求解位置参数的最佳值。
式(2)可知,当尺寸参数 α i满足 α i = [ 1 + m m / 2 ] ( - 1 / β i )时,混合威布尔具有相同的位置和形状参数,因此,位置参数的计算式为[13]
γ i = m i n   t i - α i [ 1 + m m / 2 ] ( - 1 / β i ) × Γ ( 1 + 1 / β i )
式中: Γ ( a )为Gamme函数[14],如式(6)所示。
Γ a = 0 x a - 1 e - z d z
然后,由式(5)分别对 α i β i求偏导,如式(7)~(8)所示。
γ i / α i = - n ( - 1 β i - 1 ) Γ ( 1 + 1 / β i )
γ i / β i = α i Γ ( 1 + 1 / β i ) ( P s i 1 + 1 / β i - l n   ( n ) ) ( ( 1 + m ) m / 2 ) - 1 / β i β i 2
式中: P s i 1 + 1 / β i为Polygamma函数[14],该函数在其定义域内是单调递减且有界。
进一步,可采用逐次逼近的方法确定尺寸和形状参数的迭代表达式,如式(9)~(10)所示。
α i = ( i = 1 n ( t i - γ i ) β i - 1 / n ) 1 / β i
β i = n i = 1 n x i y i - i = 1 n x i i = 1 n y i n i = 1 n ( x i ) 2 - ( i = 1 n x i ) 2
式中: y i = l n [ - l n   ( 1 - F ( t i ) ) ] ; x i = l n   ( t i )
最终,可分别计算式(5)、(9)和(10)来连续更新位置、比例和形状参数。并设置迭代终止条件为:
γ i - γ i - 1 ε
式中: ε为收敛系数,表征计算过程的精度要求。
由此,便完成了参数优化估计迭代模型的构建。参数估计迭代模型的构建流程如图1所示。
樽海鞘算法(Salp Swarm Algorithm,SSA)是基于樽海鞘觅食行为而提出的一种元启发式智能算法,由MIRJALILI等[15]于2017年首次提出。经生物科学家观察,在樽海鞘种群中,通常有一些樽海鞘会充当觅食领导者的角色,而其他成员则跟随它们觅食。这种觅食行为也被用来指导樽海鞘算法中个体的搜索行为,形成SSA算法的数学模型。
在SSA算法中,樽海鞘群体首先根据其在链中的位置分为唯一领导者和若干追随者,然后选择具有最佳适应度值的个体作为食物来源,同时SSA群体中的每个个体都根据自己的身份(领导者或追随者)更新自己的位置和适合度,并循环迭代过程,直到满足终止条件。循环过程中将食物来源作为在每次迭代中具有最佳适应度值的个体。
在SSA算法中,领导者按照式(12)更新其位置[15]
x j 1 = F j + c 1 u b j + l b j c 2 + l b j ,   i f   c 3 0 , F j - c 1 u b j + l b j c 2 + l b j ,   i f   c 3 < 0  
式中:领导者与追随者的位置均用二维矩阵 x表示; x j 1为第j维第1个前导的元素;Fj为第j维食物来源的元素;ubjlbj分别为第j维的上界和下界;c2c3为[0,1]中均匀分布的数字,表示第j维度下一个位置的变化尺度和方向;c1为关键参数,平衡SSA的勘探和开发,其定义为:
e - ( 4 × i t e r / i t e r _ m a x ) 2  
式中:iter为算法当前迭代次数;iter_max为算法最大迭代次数。
使用式(14)更新跟随者的位置。
x j i = 1 2 ( x j i + x j i - 1 )
式中: x j i x j i - 1为第i个和第i-1个跟随者在第j个维度中的位置。
由式(12)和(14)可知,领导者会基于食物来源更新他们的位置,而追随者则是基于前一个人的位置从而更新他们的立场。
原始SSA在相关优化问题上表现出显著的优异性能,并且易于用较少的参数实现[15],但原始SSA被用于解决混合威布尔分布的参数估计问题时存在求解质量不足,参数拟合效果不佳的问题。因此,为提升SSA算法在混合威布尔分布参数估计问题上的有效性,本研究从2个方面对原始SSA算法进行改进。
对追随者引入背叛行为能大范围增加种群多样性,“背叛行为”是指追随者不再跟随初始领导者和其他群体成员,而是跟随从其他群体中随机选择的领导者。算法运行时,每个追随者 x j i都有一定概率成为背叛者 x j n e w,背叛概率为R,背叛者通过式(15)更新其位置。
x j n e w = ( x j - x j L D ) / 2
式中: x j为在第j维度中背叛跟随者的元素; x j L D为在第j维中被选择跟随的领导者的元素。
概率R为:
R = 0.2 k + 0.1 n f - 1
式中:k为跟随者的“背叛”倾向;nf为组中跟随者的数量。
式(16)可知,k越大,背叛的概率就越大。
在原始SSA算法引入自适应惯性权重机制不仅有助于提升算法的收敛速度,还能有效避免算法陷入局部最优。如式(14)所示,机械性的求解过程会导致当 x j i - 1的值较差时引发 x j i的值变差,进而引发SSA算法效率显著降低,甚至陷入局部最优。因此,降低追随者i的第j维位置 x j i变更与第i-1个追随者的第j维位置 x j i - 1变更的影响对提升算法收敛效率显得尤为重要。
自适应惯性权重机制被广泛证明能较好地解决上述问题[16]。因此,本文将其引入原始SSA算法,从而得到追随者位置更新,如式(17)所示。
x j i = 1 2 ( x j i + μ × x j i - 1 )
式中:μ为自适应惯性权重系数,其取值方法如式(18)所示。
μ = i t e r 2 × i t e r _ m a x + R a n d ( 0,1 ) / 2
式中:Rand(0,1)为均匀分布于(0,1)范围内的随机数,所以μ的取值范围为( i t e r 2 × i t e r _ m a x,0.5+ i t e r 2 × i t e r _ m a x)。
本文提出的B&R-SSA算法流程如图2所示。
在本节中,进行了蒙特卡罗模拟仿真试验和工程实例验证,以表明本文所提出的方法(Proposed Method,PM)的性能。同时,为进一步阐明所提方法的优越性,本文还将其与现有的基于威布尔图的相关系数法(Correlation Coefficient from the Weibull Plot,CCWP)[17]、最大似然估计法(Maximum Likelihood Estimation,MLE)[18]和概率权重矩阵法(Probability Weighted Moments, PWM)[19]三类不同方法进行了详细比较。
蒙特卡洛模拟仿真试验被广泛应用于对离散系统进行计算。在本文的仿真试验过程中,位置参数初始值 γ 0设置为1.0;形状参数初始值 β 0分别设置为1.5、2.0、2.5;尺寸参数初始值 α 0分别设置为0.2、0.4、0.6、0.8、1.0;样本量分别设置为5、10、15、20;收敛精度 ε设置为 10 - 4;模拟试验迭代参数设置为500次。
为量化表征所提出方法的优越性,分别定义平均绝对偏差(The Mean Absolute Deviation,MAD)和平均标准差(The Mean Standard Deviation,MSD)两个参数来对不同的方法的求解质量和稳定性进行比较。参数表达如式(19)~(20)所示。
      M A D γ i , α i , β i = ( M A D ( γ i ) + M A D ( α i ) + M A D ( β i ) ) / 3
M S D γ i , α i , β i = ( s t d γ i + s t d α i + s t d ( β i ) ) / 3
式中: M A D γ i M A D ( α i ) M A D ( β i ) s t d γ i s t d α i s t d ( β i )分别为各参数估计值与真实值之间的平均偏差和标准差。
本文所提出的方法和现有方法的所有MAD和MSD统计结果见表12。其中,表1表示以本文所提出的PM为基准,相比于其他方法在不同样本数n下的MAD指标的提升比例;表2表示以PM为基准,相比于其他方法在不同样本数n下的MSD指标的提升比例。
在MAD统计指标下,由表1可知,样本量越小,所提出方法的改进效果越显著。特别是当样本量为5时,与现有方法相比,所提出方法的MAD提升率达31.4%。随着样本量的增加,该方法的精度逐渐接近最大似然。
在MSD统计指标下,与MAD的结果相似,样本量越小,所提出方法的鲁棒性提高越显著。当样本量为5时,与现有方法相比,本文方法的MSD提升率达21.5%。随着样本量的增加,该方法的鲁棒性逐渐接近最大似然。结果表明,该方法对混合威布尔参数的估计具有更强的鲁棒性。
此外,为进一步阐明方法的优越性,同时说明B&R-SSA算法的参数估计优越性,本文采用B&R-SSA算法与原始SSA算法、粒子群算法(PSO)、灰狼优化算法(GWO)、鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)及非洲秃鹫优化算法(AVOA)[20]5种常用算法同时对PM模型进行求解,并对比求解计算结果。其中, M A D γ i , α i , β i值的对比结果如图3所示。
图3可知,样本量为5、10、15、20时,本文所提出的B&R-SSA算法在PM模型计算时的 M A D γ i , α i , β i值均最优,与综合排名第2的AVOA算法相比,在对应不同样本量的试验中,分别提升了21.73%、15.3%、17.6%、7.6%,与原始SSA算法相比,分别提升41.4%、37.6%、29.4%、32.7%。最终的结果表明,本文所提方法在对混合威布尔参数估计问题中具备优越性。
AEB系统能通过使用雷达、摄像头或激光传感器等技术检测前方障碍物,如果发现驾驶员无法及时制动避免碰撞,AEB系统会自动启动制动系统以减速或停止车辆,从而减少事故的发生。为记录AEB失效数据,对某品牌SUV开展试验研究,记录试验样车在路测过程中AEB功能触发数据,试验照片如图4所示。
试验样车在试验过程中的10个AEB功能触发异常的节点时间数据见表3
在功能可靠性估计试验中,本文采用所提出的混合威布尔分布模型对数据进行建模。与蒙特卡洛仿真试验中的模型参数相似,收敛精度 ε设置为10-4。然后根据提出的方法对混合威布尔分布的位置、尺度和形状参数进行求解。
为表明PM优越性,首先,对样本进行威布尔分布参数估计后采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov统计量(K-S检验值)进行对比检验。文献[13]表明,在显著性水平5%下,当K-S值小于临界值0.41时,接受估计结果,且K-S值越小,估计值越可信。试验发现,PM与各估计方法的K-S结果相比具有一定优势,对比结果如图5所示。
然后,结合疲劳寿命数据,根据威布尔分布的累积分布函数,得到4种方法对应的累积分布曲线,参数估计结果如图6所示。
图6可知,对于较小的疲劳寿命数据,4种方法的参数估计结果与实际数据差异较大。对于数值较大的疲劳寿命数据的估计,4种方法的参数估计结果与实际数据的差异较小。与CCWP和PWM相比,PM与MLE明显更适合小疲劳寿命。为了更清晰地比较4种方法的参数估计能力差异,采用疲劳寿命数据作为输入变量。将4种方法得到的累积分布函数值与式(2)的经验分布函数的计算值相减,得到各对应点的误差,如图7所示。
图7可知,随着样本数的增加,累积误差逐渐增大。对于小值数据的估计,本文方法计算的累积分布曲线的累积误差最小。从所有样本的累积误差来看,PM所得的累积分布曲线与疲劳寿命数据累积分布曲线之间的累积误差均小于其他方法的累积误差。此外,通过计算,MTTF和t0.99分别为316.93和297.75,其结果与实际故障数据相符。
由于实际工程中可靠性评估工作面临困难,对混合威布尔模型的参数估计优化求解问题开展研究。基于逐次逼近法,提出了一种基于新型B&R-SSA算法的新型混合威布尔参数估计方法。首先,根据不同样本量下样本最小值与定位参数的关系,推导出定位参数的迭代模型,并进一步根据位置参数和失效数据分别更新尺度和形状参数;然后,通过引入“背叛”行为和自适应惯性权重机制,用于解决原始SSA算法求解效率低,易于陷入局部最优的问题,进而提出了一种新型B&R-SSA算法,最后运用该算法对模型进行逐次迭代优化求解。在试验过程中,本文分别进行了蒙特卡洛模拟仿真试验和AEB功能可靠性估计试验,同时采用5种常规不同优化算法,并与MLE、CCWP和PWM三类现有的方法在精度和鲁棒性方面进行了比较。试验结果表明,本文所提出的方法在威布尔分布参数估计方面具有较好的精度和鲁棒性,能较好地开展参数估计和可靠性分析。
需要进一步指出的是,本文所构建的新型参数优化求解方法,不仅适用于混合威布尔分布,同时也适合其他分布类型。而本文所提出的B&R-SSA算法,不仅适用于AEB功能可靠性参数估计,也可以作为其他类型问题的优化求解。同时,该方法也可以作为小样本情况下混合威布尔分布参数估计的优越方法。
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(12262022)
  • 陕西省科技重大专项(2019zdzx01-02-02)
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2095–1469.2025.03.11
  • 接收时间:2024-02-19
  • 首发时间:2025-07-18
  • 出版时间:2025-05-20
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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-19
  • 修回日期:2024-05-12
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(12262022)
陕西省科技重大专项(2019zdzx01-02-02)
作者信息
    1 西安工业大学 机电工程学院,西安 710021
    2 中国汽车工程研究院股份有限公司,重庆 401122
    3 中汽院智能网联汽车检测中心(湖南)有限公司,长沙 410000
    4 江铃汽车股份有限公司 产品开发技术中心,南昌 330000
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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