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In response to the difficulty in quantifying the efficiency of agricultural machinery operations in our country, this paper took the combine harvester for wheat in the the Huanghuaihai Plain as the object, and built a model for evaluating and predicting the efficiency of agricultural machinery based on time series analysis, aiming to promote the improvement of the efficiency of agricultural machinery operations. Firstly, a multi-dimensional efficiency evaluation system including time utilization rate and average fuel consumption was established based on the operation log data; secondly, the STL decomposition method was used to eliminate the long-term and seasonal trend of the efficiency sequence; finally, the efficiency prediction was carried out.

, authors=Lifang Li, authorsList=Lifang Li, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1294746799219167658, articleId=1294746798707462568, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1293586367437176863, language=CN, title=基于时间序列分析构建的农机效率评估与预测模型, columnId=1294746785067590302, journalTitle=农业技术与装备, columnName=成果转化与应用, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

针对我国农业机械作业效率量化难的问题，本文以黄淮海平原小麦联合收割机为对象，基于时间序列分析构建农机效率评估与预测模型，旨在促进农机作业效率的提升。首先，基于作业日志数据建立含时间利用率、平均油耗等多维度效率评价体系；其次，用STL分解法剔除效率序列的长期和季节变动趋势；最后，进行效率预测。

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李利芳（1982-），女，讲师，河南长葛人，研究方向为统计学。

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李利芳（1982-），女，讲师，河南长葛人，研究方向为统计学。

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