Article(id=1297211834419929357, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, issueId=1297211624738284246, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202510060, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1760284800000, receivedDateStr=2025-10-13, revisedDate=1777392000000, revisedDateStr=2026-04-29, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1787209002356, onlineDateStr=2026-08-20, pubDate=1782748800000, pubDateStr=2026-06-30, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1787209002356, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-08-20, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1787209002356, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1787209002356, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1297211624738284246, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, year='2026', volume='42', issue='12', pageStart='1', pageEnd='396', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1782748800000', pubDateStr='2026-06-30', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1787208952364, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1787212261177, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1297225503002357852, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, issueId=1297211624738284246, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1297225503002357853, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, issueId=1297211624738284246, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=310, endPage=320, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1297211834629644558, articleId=1297211834419929357, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, language=EN, title=Potential assessment and development pathways of rural settlement consolidation in suburban metropolitan areas from a supply-demand perspective, columnId=1297211762726687390, journalTitle=Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, columnName=Land Security and Ecological Safety, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Suburban rural areas of metropolitan regions can serve as the interface between urban and rural elements. Their rural settlements have posed challenges in recent years, such as idle and inefficient land use, scattered spatial layouts, and supply-demand mismatches in functions. Rural settlement consolidation can be expected to increasingly emphasize rural revitalization and territory-wide land consolidation. An accurate release of consolidation potential is often required for the precise alignment between land supply and development demand. Therefore, this study aims to assess the potential of rural settlements for the differentiated consolidation pathways in rural stock resources. A case study was taken of Jurong City, a suburb of the Nanjing metropolitan area. A "supply-demand assessment-type identification” framework was constructed using supply-demand theory. Supply–demand consolidation potential of rural settlements was also assessed using a one-class support vector machine (SVM) and machine learning. Furthermore, the precise pathways of land resource allocation were also explored at the village scale, according to the rural dominant function demands. The results show: 1) The theoretical consolidation potential of rural settlements was 8 490.19 hm2, accounting for 61.51% of the settlement area. The willingness simulation model was validated with an accuracy of 87.81% and a recall rate of 95.48%, indicating high precision. The modeled willingness values ranged from 0.33 to 0.76 for administrative villages. Specifically, the villages with higher consolidation willingness were distributed in the southeastern region, including the Maoshan Scenic Area, Maoshan, Houbai, and Tianwang Town. The actual consolidation potential of rural settlements was 5441.91 hm2 after correction, representing 39.42% of the rural settlement land. 2) The demand potential of rural revitalization ranged from 0.20 to 0.60, indicating a pattern of “higher in the west, lower in the east, with clustered distribution.” The number of medium-demand villages was the largest among all villages, totaling 100 (53% of all villages). 3) Four types of zones were identified for the supply-demand potential: priority consolidation, reserve regulation, demand-oriented, and stable control zone, accounting for 43, 35, 73, and 37 villages, respectively. 4) Four types of dominant functional demands were identified among the rural settlements, with the majority of balanced development villages. Most villages shared no dominant functional demand, resulting in a balanced functional profile with scattered spatial distribution. Potential zones were coupled with dominant functional demands. 12 consolidation types were derived at the village scale. Potential release pathways were summarized, such as “spatial reconstruction,” “precise guidance,” “flexible regulation,” and “micro-renewal,” thus enabling “one village, one strategy” precise intervention. Targeted consolidation measures were also proposed, such as “releasing potential through village reorganization” and “innovating dynamic land reservation supply.” Differentiated strategies were implemented to promote intensive and economical land use for the rural functions and spatial patterns. The findings can also provide a practical demonstration and reference to precisely match land supply with rural revitalization demands in the spatial units of metropolitan suburbs.

, authors=Dekai TAO1, 2, Zhihao ZHU1, Ji XIA3, *, Yan FENG4, Boning SUN5, authorsList=Dekai TAO, Zhihao ZHU, Ji XIA, Yan FENG, Boning SUN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Ji XIA, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1297211837620183323, articleId=1297211834419929357, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, language=CN, title=供需视角下都市区近郊农村居民点整治潜力测算与发展路径, columnId=1297211764437963424, journalTitle=农业工程学报, columnName=土地保障与生态安全, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

科学测算农村居民点整治潜力,探索农村居民点差异化整治路径是实施全域土地综合整治、盘活乡村存量资源、促进乡村全面振兴的重要抓手。该研究以南京都市区近郊句容市为实证区域,基于供需理论构建“供需测算—类型识别”分析框架,利用单类支持向量机算法和综合分析法测算句容市农村居民点供需潜力,结合乡村主导功能需求探究村域尺度下土地资源的精准配置路径。研究表明:1)各行政村整治意愿在0.33~0.76之间,经修正句容市农村居民点整治潜力为5 441.91 hm2,占现状用地的39.42%,乡村振兴发展需求指数在0.20~0.60之间,呈现“西高东低,组团分布”的格局;2)句容市农村居民点共识别出4种主导功能需求,以均衡发展型村庄为主;3)将潜力分区与主导功能需求耦合,形成12类村域尺度下整治类型,并按照治理逻辑归纳为“空间重构”“精准引导”等潜力释放路径,进而提出“村庄重组释放潜力”“创新动态留白供地”等针对性的村庄整治手段。研究成果为都市区近郊空间单元土地资源精准供给与乡村振兴需求高效匹配提供了示范参考。

, authors=陶德凯1, 2, 朱之浩1, 夏季3, *, 冯艳4, 孙柏宁5, authorsList=陶德凯, 朱之浩, 夏季, 冯艳, 孙柏宁, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=夏季, authorNote=

陶德凯,博士,副教授,研究方向为国土空间规划与土地可持续利用。Email:

, correspAuthorsNote=
夏季,正高级工程师,研究方向为乡村社区治理与社区规划。Email:
, copyrightStatement=版权所有 © 2026 农业工程学报编辑部, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=2pFEhX8HHIDNBNxhEnrlnA==, magXml=6C0rQ+5a3IeTaXEcBvENxA==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=E0UXQz+PJn8kbsdAZJzCog==, pdfFileSize=2834885, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=K+0sgnUBhCLjritlk4hUXA==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=FJoPldBpBjblCtIUY92i/A==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1299828257134764162, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=dk_tao@126.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1299828257294147717, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, authorId=1299828257134764162, language=EN, stringName=Dekai TAO, firstName=Dekai, middleName=null, lastName=TAO, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, address=1College of Architecture, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
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陶德凯,博士,副教授,研究方向为国土空间规划与土地可持续利用。Email:

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陶德凯,博士,副教授,研究方向为国土空间规划与土地可持续利用。Email:

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figureFileSmall=UwQehczkNOOyqSsoTmlyFg==, figureFileBig=wrs8OKb4ZtUlqKyCEzDUIw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1299828260121108654, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=CN, label=图5, caption=农村居民点整治类型识别结果

注:产业振兴先导型(A1)、宜居社区建设型(A2)、生态价值实现型(A3)、三生融合引导型(A4)、战略储备型(B1)、弹性服务配置型(B2)、特色产业激活型(C1)、安全宜居提升型(C2)、生态保护修复型(C3)、多元约束突破型(C4)、微更新型(D1)、严格保护型(D2)。

, figureFileSmall=UwQehczkNOOyqSsoTmlyFg==, figureFileBig=wrs8OKb4ZtUlqKyCEzDUIw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1299828260200800431, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=EN, label=Fig.6, caption=Pathways for unlocking the potential of rural settlements under different types of improvement initiatives, figureFileSmall=uLj/aTKNynkKIR7mcx6hfQ==, figureFileBig=o4+013GjU3hwYnPCImaZWw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1299828260280492208, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=CN, label=图6, caption=不同整治类型下农村居民点整治潜力释放路径, figureFileSmall=uLj/aTKNynkKIR7mcx6hfQ==, figureFileBig=o4+013GjU3hwYnPCImaZWw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1299828260351795377, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

Evaluation index system for the development potential of rural revitalization

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
目标层
Target layer
指标层
Indicator layer
计算方法
Calculation method
权重
Weight
属性
Attribute
生产
功能
集体经营性建设
用地占比
集体经营性建设用地面积/
居民点面积
0.439+
耕地占比耕地面积/居民点面积0.108+
劳动力人口比例变化劳动力人口变化率0.098+
生活
功能
交通可达性成本距离统计0.049+
公共服务设施水平公共服务设施辐射面积/
行政区面积
0.180-
农村人口密度农村人口数量/居民点面积0.066+
生态
功能
生境质量InVEST模型分析0.020-
生态胁迫性农村居民点与生态
红线的距离
0.040-
), ArticleFig(id=1299828260410515634, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

乡村振兴发展潜力评价指标体系

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
目标层
Target layer
指标层
Indicator layer
计算方法
Calculation method
权重
Weight
属性
Attribute
生产
功能
集体经营性建设
用地占比
集体经营性建设用地面积/
居民点面积
0.439+
耕地占比耕地面积/居民点面积0.108+
劳动力人口比例变化劳动力人口变化率0.098+
生活
功能
交通可达性成本距离统计0.049+
公共服务设施水平公共服务设施辐射面积/
行政区面积
0.180-
农村人口密度农村人口数量/居民点面积0.066+
生态
功能
生境质量InVEST模型分析0.020-
生态胁迫性农村居民点与生态
红线的距离
0.040-
), ArticleFig(id=1299828260477624499, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Results of the assessment of improvement potential for rural settlements in Jurong City

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
乡镇
Township
现状农村居民点用地面积
Current rural settlement
land area/hm2
理论潜力
Theoretical
potential/hm2
修正系数
Correction
factor
整治潜力
Improvement
potential/hm2
后白镇1709.211058.600.66697.99
郭庄镇(含赤山湖)1660.16843.970.60502.94
天王镇1434.51761.780.67513.61
白兔镇1195.81664.390.70463.98
茅山镇1038.25687.260.66451.20
边城镇1031.76570.380.64364.08
茅山风景区1234.90826.120.66545.21
华阳街道1566.741099.600.63694.87
黄梅街道1143.56703.190.62433.43
下蜀镇1177.74813.360.60487.29
宝华镇610.73461.540.62287.30
合计13803.378490.190.645441.91
), ArticleFig(id=1299828260540539060, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

句容市农村居民点整治潜力测算结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
乡镇
Township
现状农村居民点用地面积
Current rural settlement
land area/hm2
理论潜力
Theoretical
potential/hm2
修正系数
Correction
factor
整治潜力
Improvement
potential/hm2
后白镇1709.211058.600.66697.99
郭庄镇(含赤山湖)1660.16843.970.60502.94
天王镇1434.51761.780.67513.61
白兔镇1195.81664.390.70463.98
茅山镇1038.25687.260.66451.20
边城镇1031.76570.380.64364.08
茅山风景区1234.90826.120.66545.21
华阳街道1566.741099.600.63694.87
黄梅街道1143.56703.190.62433.43
下蜀镇1177.74813.360.60487.29
宝华镇610.73461.540.62287.30
合计13803.378490.190.645441.91
), ArticleFig(id=1299828260695728309, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

Results of the classification of rural settlement improvement projects in Jurong City

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
镇区TownA1A2A3A4B1C1C2C3C4D1D2
白兔镇00033010730
宝华镇00102101402
边城镇00031013530
郭庄镇10130082710
后白镇02135051330
华阳街道10252102303
黄梅街道20021111820
茅山风景区00117000090
茅山镇00034000210
天王镇02018010150
下蜀镇20032100241
总计64627354171042316
), ArticleFig(id=1299828260762837174, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1296125453100220459, articleId=1297211834419929357, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

句容市农村居民点整治类型划分结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
镇区TownA1A2A3A4B1C1C2C3C4D1D2
白兔镇00033010730
宝华镇00102101402
边城镇00031013530
郭庄镇10130082710
后白镇02135051330
华阳街道10252102303
黄梅街道20021111820
茅山风景区00117000090
茅山镇00034000210
天王镇02018010150
下蜀镇20032100241
总计64627354171042316
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供需视角下都市区近郊农村居民点整治潜力测算与发展路径
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陶德凯 1, 2 , 朱之浩 1 , 夏季 3, * , 冯艳 4 , 孙柏宁 5
农业工程学报 | 土地保障与生态安全 2026,42(12): 310-320
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农业工程学报 |土地保障与生态安全 2026 , 42 (12) : 310 -320
供需视角下都市区近郊农村居民点整治潜力测算与发展路径
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陶德凯1, 2 , 朱之浩1, 夏季3, * , 冯艳4, 孙柏宁5
作者信息
  • 1南京工业大学建筑学院,南京 211816
  • 2南京工业大学应急治理与政策研究院,南京 211816
  • 3南京城市职业学院康养工程学院,南京 211200
  • 4华东理工大学城乡文化遗产研究中心,上海 200237
  • 5江苏省国土资源研究中心,南京 210017
通讯作者:
夏季,正高级工程师,研究方向为乡村社区治理与社区规划。Email:
作者简介:

陶德凯,博士,副教授,研究方向为国土空间规划与土地可持续利用。Email:

Potential assessment and development pathways of rural settlement consolidation in suburban metropolitan areas from a supply-demand perspective
Dekai TAO1, 2 , Zhihao ZHU1, Ji XIA3, * , Yan FENG4, Boning SUN5
Affiliations
  • 1College of Architecture, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
  • 2Institute of Emergency Governance and Policy, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
  • 3College of Health and Wellness Engineering, Nanjing City Vocational College, Nanjing 211200, China
  • 4Deputy Director of the Urban and Rural Cultural Heritage Research Center, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China
  • 5Jiangsu Land and Resources Research Center, Nanjing 210017, China
出版时间: 2026-06-30 doi: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202510060
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科学测算农村居民点整治潜力,探索农村居民点差异化整治路径是实施全域土地综合整治、盘活乡村存量资源、促进乡村全面振兴的重要抓手。该研究以南京都市区近郊句容市为实证区域,基于供需理论构建“供需测算—类型识别”分析框架,利用单类支持向量机算法和综合分析法测算句容市农村居民点供需潜力,结合乡村主导功能需求探究村域尺度下土地资源的精准配置路径。研究表明:1)各行政村整治意愿在0.33~0.76之间,经修正句容市农村居民点整治潜力为5 441.91 hm2,占现状用地的39.42%,乡村振兴发展需求指数在0.20~0.60之间,呈现“西高东低,组团分布”的格局;2)句容市农村居民点共识别出4种主导功能需求,以均衡发展型村庄为主;3)将潜力分区与主导功能需求耦合,形成12类村域尺度下整治类型,并按照治理逻辑归纳为“空间重构”“精准引导”等潜力释放路径,进而提出“村庄重组释放潜力”“创新动态留白供地”等针对性的村庄整治手段。研究成果为都市区近郊空间单元土地资源精准供给与乡村振兴需求高效匹配提供了示范参考。

农村居民点  /  土地整治  /  潜力测算  /  供需逻辑  /  乡村振兴

Suburban rural areas of metropolitan regions can serve as the interface between urban and rural elements. Their rural settlements have posed challenges in recent years, such as idle and inefficient land use, scattered spatial layouts, and supply-demand mismatches in functions. Rural settlement consolidation can be expected to increasingly emphasize rural revitalization and territory-wide land consolidation. An accurate release of consolidation potential is often required for the precise alignment between land supply and development demand. Therefore, this study aims to assess the potential of rural settlements for the differentiated consolidation pathways in rural stock resources. A case study was taken of Jurong City, a suburb of the Nanjing metropolitan area. A "supply-demand assessment-type identification” framework was constructed using supply-demand theory. Supply–demand consolidation potential of rural settlements was also assessed using a one-class support vector machine (SVM) and machine learning. Furthermore, the precise pathways of land resource allocation were also explored at the village scale, according to the rural dominant function demands. The results show: 1) The theoretical consolidation potential of rural settlements was 8 490.19 hm2, accounting for 61.51% of the settlement area. The willingness simulation model was validated with an accuracy of 87.81% and a recall rate of 95.48%, indicating high precision. The modeled willingness values ranged from 0.33 to 0.76 for administrative villages. Specifically, the villages with higher consolidation willingness were distributed in the southeastern region, including the Maoshan Scenic Area, Maoshan, Houbai, and Tianwang Town. The actual consolidation potential of rural settlements was 5441.91 hm2 after correction, representing 39.42% of the rural settlement land. 2) The demand potential of rural revitalization ranged from 0.20 to 0.60, indicating a pattern of “higher in the west, lower in the east, with clustered distribution.” The number of medium-demand villages was the largest among all villages, totaling 100 (53% of all villages). 3) Four types of zones were identified for the supply-demand potential: priority consolidation, reserve regulation, demand-oriented, and stable control zone, accounting for 43, 35, 73, and 37 villages, respectively. 4) Four types of dominant functional demands were identified among the rural settlements, with the majority of balanced development villages. Most villages shared no dominant functional demand, resulting in a balanced functional profile with scattered spatial distribution. Potential zones were coupled with dominant functional demands. 12 consolidation types were derived at the village scale. Potential release pathways were summarized, such as “spatial reconstruction,” “precise guidance,” “flexible regulation,” and “micro-renewal,” thus enabling “one village, one strategy” precise intervention. Targeted consolidation measures were also proposed, such as “releasing potential through village reorganization” and “innovating dynamic land reservation supply.” Differentiated strategies were implemented to promote intensive and economical land use for the rural functions and spatial patterns. The findings can also provide a practical demonstration and reference to precisely match land supply with rural revitalization demands in the spatial units of metropolitan suburbs.

rural settlements  /  land consolidation  /  potential assessment  /  supply and demand logic  /  rural revitalization
陶德凯, 朱之浩, 夏季, 冯艳, 孙柏宁. 供需视角下都市区近郊农村居民点整治潜力测算与发展路径. 农业工程学报, 2026 , 42 (12) : 310 -320 . DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202510060
Dekai TAO, Zhihao ZHU, Ji XIA, Yan FENG, Boning SUN. Potential assessment and development pathways of rural settlement consolidation in suburban metropolitan areas from a supply-demand perspective[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2026 , 42 (12) : 310 -320 . DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202510060
农村居民点不仅是农村居民生产生活的基本空间单元,也是农村土地利用的重要组成部分和人地关系的核心[1]。都市区近郊农村地区紧邻中心城市,是经济增长和空间拓展的主要地域[2],受中心城市的辐射力度较大。随着中国城镇化建设的加快,大量农村劳动力向城市转移,农村出现大量“人走房空”的现象。自然资源部数据显示,目前中国农村地区1/3左右的村庄宅基地闲置或“空心化”严重,“一户多宅”比例为7%~20%[3]。土地是乡村全面振兴的重要要素组成,不仅是乡村振兴的空间载体,更是潜在的资产或资本。科学评估以空置农村居民点为代表的农村建设用地潜力,积极整治农村低效和闲置用地,释放农村内部的存量土地资源,是乡村振兴战略实施的重要着力点。
土地整治是区域-要素统筹与实现国土空间开发的重要途径[4],是盘活存量建设用地、优化城乡空间格局的关键政策工具。改革开放以来,中国农村土地整治工作随国家战略重心转移而持续演进,依据核心政策目标和作用特征可划分为3个阶段。20世纪90年代末,为应对快速工业化带来的建设用地扩张并侵占农田问题,《土地管理法》首次将“土地整理”纳入法律,核心是管控建设用地开发;进入21世纪,城镇化进程的加快,为缓解城乡建设用地矛盾,2004年《关于深化改革严格土地管理的决定》明确提出“增减挂钩”概念,意在保护耕地总量的前提下,为发展提供空间指标[5];党的十八大以来,国家战略中心转向乡村全面振兴[6],土地整治工作从单一的土地整理工程转向以乡镇或村庄为基本单元、统筹“三生空间”的系统性治理[7],先后提出开展“全域土地整治”和“全域土地综合整治”工作。纵观土地整理工作的变迁,从最初的“重数量、轻质量”的单一管控目标到“重指标、轻治理”的城乡二元加重,逐渐向统筹城乡发展、促进土地资源高效集约利用的系统性空间治理政策转变[8]
在当前土地综合整治阶段,农村居民点整治已成为全域土地综合整治的重要内容[9],而科学评估其整治潜力是当前土地综合整治时期面临的重要任务[10],也是实现土地集约节约利用、响应乡村振兴多元化需求的关键前提。学术界针对农村居民点整治潜力测算已形成一定研究基础,主流研究以“理论潜力-现实潜力”二级修正框架展开,通过人均(户均)建设用地标准法核算理论潜力,结合地区的现实情况继而引入主体意愿[11-12]、自然社会经济限制[13-15]、生态安全性[16]等因子进行修正。然而宏观尺度下的空间统计分析因权重确定存在主观性强的问题,难以量化微观尺度下村民行为逻辑、土地利用时空变化等内生变量。近年来,相关学者采用人工智能算法对农村居民点用地进行空间模拟,从整治概率[17]、整治迫切度[18]、整治意愿[19]、主体行为决策[10]和土地利用变化[20]等方面测算居民点整治潜力,丰富了潜力测算体系。在潜力的转换路径上,相关研究从潜力空间分布规律[5,21-23]、整治时序[24]、三生功能[25-27]、乡村类型[9]、用地适宜性[28]等方面探究整治分区,通过精准识别不同区域的整治条件与潜力特征,构建差异化的整治策略,为本文研究提供了借鉴。但综合而言,当前研究视角多从供给潜力视角出发[5,15,17,19],对多元化的发展需求评价研究较少[3,7,11],尤其缺乏供需动态匹配的互动机制研究。另一方面,当前研究尺度集中在中宏观层面[12,14],难以剖析农村居民点内部结构并深入挖掘其整治潜力与整治路径[3]。在乡村振兴战略深入推进的背景下,如何基于乡村发展的现实需求,识别村域尺度下居民点整治潜力与乡村振兴需求的匹配关系,重构闲置建设用地的多元价值,已成为亟待深入探讨的问题。
当前,南京都市区近郊农村地区兼具乡村振兴和城乡融合发展的双向需求[2],是开展相关研究的典型区域。鉴于此,本文以江苏省句容市为例,以乡村全面振兴战略实施为导向,构建供需视角下农村居民点整治潜力评估体系,科学测算农村居民点整治潜力与乡村振兴发展需求的匹配程度,并结合乡村发展主导功能需求,识别村域尺度下农村居民点整治类型,提出未来农村空间布局的优化方向和整治路径。以期通过农村土地要素价值重构实现乡村空间差异化发展布局,为大都市近郊全域土地综合整治和乡村全面振兴提供有益参考和政策启示。
句容市隶属于江苏省镇江市,北临长江,东接镇江市区,西南紧邻南京市江宁区、溧水区,位于南京都市圈核心圈层(图1)。2023年句容市城镇化率约为66.5%,全市农村常住人口为21.55万人,相较2013年农村常住人口28.76万人,累计减少7.21万人。句容市总面积1378 km2,城乡建设用地210.89 km2,其中农村建设用地138.03 km2,占城乡建设用地总量的65.45%。2023年句容市农村人均建设用地约640.42 m2,户均宅基地面积约473.67 m2,这两项指标均大幅超过《村镇规划标准》与《江苏省土地管理条例》中规定的人均、户均用地上限。此外,句容市地处苏南丘陵地带,农村居民点分布较为分散。以茅山镇为例,共有农村居民点用地图斑8796个,其中小于0.05 hm2的图斑共有5293个,占总数的60%,农村居民点用地呈现“小且乱”的特征。因此,测算农村居民点整治潜力、探究具体整治路径,对于高效配置农村土地资源、优化乡村空间布局,推动都市区近郊全域土地综合整治与乡村振兴具有重要战略意义。
研究数据涉及农村居民点、土地利用、地形、社会经济、基础设施和人口等。其中,农村居民点数据包括行政村矢量边界来自句容市自然资源和规划局提供的2020年句容市第三次全国土地变更调查数据库(后称“三调”数据库)中村级调查区界限,农村居民点用地图斑来自“三调”数据库中编码为203的村庄用地,精确至地块级;土地利用数据来自“三调”数据库和句容市增减挂钩规划(2024—2026年)矢量数据库;30 m分辨率的数字高程数据(DEM)来自地理空间数据云(https://www.gscloud.cn/);社会经济数据来自2020—2023年《句容市统计年鉴》;基础设施数据包括句容市学校、镇政府等位置信息,来自百度地图POI数据;人口数据来自《句容市镇村布局规划(2024版)》。
农村居民点整治是土地整治的重要内容,也是优化配置乡村土地资源的核心工具,其内涵演变深刻映射着国家发展战略的阶段性调整。从学术层面来看,通常将农村居民点整治内涵界定为通过建设用地复垦[14]、空间布局优化[25]、功能提升等[2]手段,盘活农村闲置低效用地,促进土地节约集约利用的过程。从政策演进来看,农村居民点整治的目标已从早期以耕地保护为主的“土地整理”,逐步转向以城乡用地结构优化为特征的“增减挂钩”,进而发展为当前以乡村功能整体提升为核心的“土地综合整治”阶段。这一转变反映了国家治理逻辑从单一资源管控向乡村全面振兴的深刻转型。本文从农村居民点整治和乡村振兴的关系去理解农村居民点整治的内涵:一方面,乡村发展亟需通过整治释放存量建设用地,以满足农产品加工、乡村旅游、物流仓储等新产业、新业态的空间需求;另一方面,乡村振兴战略的实施对农村土地利用功能提出了“生活、生产和生态”等方面的新要求,反映社会经济系统对土地要素的利用诉求。因此,农村居民点整治的本质内涵是对农村建设空间结构的系统性调整,以此来平衡乡村发展提出的功能性需求[29]。然而,受区位条件、经济水平、人口流动等因素影响,不同区域农村居民点的整治潜力与乡村振兴的空间需求之间存在显著差异,若缺乏科学评估与协同引导,易导致土地资源配置在空间与功能上的失衡。因此,亟需构建系统性的分析框架,科学识别农村居民点整治潜力与乡村振兴需求的匹配关系,以支撑差异化的空间治理策略制定。
研究以“供需理论”为基础,构建一个从潜力测算到路径实施的系统分析框架。首先,从供给与需求端分别构建独立的评价体系:供给端通过人均建设用地标准法[18]测算出行政村单元下农村居民点理论整治潜力,再利用农村居民点历史拆旧数据,提取拆旧图斑的相关空间影响因子,通过机器学习模拟农户的整治意愿并对理论整治潜力进行修正。需求端构建“生产-生活-生态”功能需求评估体系,测算乡村振兴发展需求潜力;其次,构建供需均衡度模型,量化供给能力与需求匹配程度,识别出供需潜力分区;最后,依据乡村振兴发展需求潜力识别出乡村主导功能需求[2],构建供需潜力分区和主导功能需求的交叉关系矩阵,形成村域尺度下农村居民点整治类型,进而探索农村居民点差异化潜力释放路径(图2)。研究旨在为土地资源优化配置提供兼具科学性与可操作性的决策依据。不仅为农村居民点整治提供理论支撑,也为乡村振兴战略的落地实施提供可操作的技术工具。
常见的农村居民点整治潜力测算方法是利用多因素综合评价法对理论整治潜力进行修正测算[30],但这种线性模型假设变量间为简单的线性叠加关系,而现实中农村居民点整治还受农户主体意愿等非线性交互影响。因此本文参考相关学者的研究成果[17-18,31],利用机器学习中单类支持向量机算法,从微观环境特征中挖掘农户在拆旧复垦中的主观意愿规律,进而模拟规划期内农村居民点用地的整治意愿[18]。在此基础上再对理论整治潜力进行修正得出农村居民点整治潜力。具体测算步骤为
1)整治意愿模拟下的影响因素选取。结合现有相关研究结论[17]最终从地形、区位、邻域土地利用三方面提取环境因素变量,包括平均坡度、图斑与主要道路的距离、图斑与学校的距离、图斑到镇政府的距离、地块周边土地利用状况。基于ArcGIS10.8平台,将农村居民点矢量数据转为10 m栅格单元,作为微观分析的基本单元,计算各个地块栅格单元的环境因素变量。区位条件可利用邻域分析工具计算到公路、小学、镇中心的距离。地形条件与邻域土地利用特征的测算中,参考句容市居民点实际规模,将“邻域”定义为居民点用地像元的5阶摩尔邻域,进而完成相关特征的量化提取。
2)机器学习模型训练与验证。选取句容市历史增减挂钩数据中拆旧区域作为正向样本,句容市农村居民点新增建设用地作为负向样本(干扰样本),将两组数据按正负样本9∶1数量比构成训练集进行机器学习训练,模型会提取每个样本的环境因素特征值及一般规律。通过准确率(Acc)和召回率(Recall)评估模型性能,准确率反映了算法对“正”“负”两类样本的预测准确程度,召回率则反映了算法对于“正”样本的识别能力。
3)现状农村居民点整治意愿的预测。经训练的整治意愿模拟模型,可以识别农村居民点整治的共性规律。将待预测图斑的特征值输入模型后,输出的整治意愿值(范围0~1)越高,表明该区域农村居民点整治的可能性越大;反之则整治可能性越小。以行政村为单元,通过计算辖区内各栅格单元的平均整治意愿值,可得到村域尺度的整治意愿结果。
4)根据农村人均建设用地的标准,利用计算式(1)测算句容市农村居民点整治的理论潜力。再根据测算出的结果与整治意愿的乘积,利用计算式(2)计算出农村居民点整治潜力。
$ \bigtriangleup S=S_0-P_0\cdot Q $
式中△S为农村居民点整治的理论潜力(hm2),S0为现状村庄建设用地面积(m2),P0为现状农村居民点人口数(人),Q为人均建设用地标准(m2/人)。
$ \Delta S_{i}^{{'}}= \Delta {S}_{i}\cdot {K}_{i} $
式中$ \Delta S_{i}^{{'}} $为第i个行政村修正后的现实潜力(hm2);$ \Delta {S}_{i} $为第i个行政村的理论潜力(hm2);Ki为第i个行政村的整治意愿(通过机器学习方法对历史拆旧图斑的空间特征进行学习与模拟获得的农户整治意愿结果),取值范围为[0,1]。
乡村振兴涉及多个系统的共同作用,因此本文参考曲衍波等[3]的研究成果并结合句容市的实际情况,构建“生产-生活-生态”三维需求评估体系。选取集体经营性建设用地占比、耕地占比等8项指标反映城乡经济发展、设施水平、生态环境对乡村振兴发展需求的影响(表1)。采用优劣解距离法对需求潜力进行计算,具体测算方法:
①数据标准化处理。首先参照整治潜力的测算方法,对各分析单元原始指标值利用极差法进行无量纲化处理,并利用熵值法算出各指标的权重。
②构建加权决策矩阵。将原始标准化数据构成标准化矩阵U并乘以对应权重W,计算出加权的综合决策矩阵Vn指构建乡村振兴发展潜力评价指标个数,m指评价单元数量。Vi为第i个评价单位的加权综合指标值。
$ {\boldsymbol{V}}={\boldsymbol{U}}\cdot W=\left[V_i\right]m\cdot n $
③确定正、负理想解。正理想解(V+)是各指标加权后的最大值构成,负理想解(V)是各指标加权后的最小值构成。
$ {V}^+=\left\{\left[\max \left({V}_{i}\right)\right],i=1{,}2,3\cdots ,m\right\} $
$ {V}^-=\left\{\left[\min \left({V}_{i}\right)\right],i=1{,}2,3\cdots ,m\right\} $
④计算欧式距离。$ D_{i}^{+} $是到正理想解距离;$ D_{i}^{-} $是到负理想解距离。
$ D_{i}^+=\sqrt{\sum\limits_{i=1}^{m}\,({V}_{i}-{V}^+{)}^{2}} $
$ D{i}^-=\sqrt{\sum\limits_{i=1}^{m}\,({V}_{i}-{V}^-{)}^{2}} $
⑤计算相对接近度Ci。接近度取值范围为[0,1],值越大表示对农村居民点用地整治潜力的需求越高。
$ {C}_{i}=\frac{D_{i}^+}{D_{i}^+\cdot D_{i}^-} $
1)供需潜力分区
行政村是中国乡村治理与政策执行的基本单元,也是乡村振兴战略实施的主体,以行政村为单元进行整治类型划分,能够与国土空间规划、土地综合整治、村庄规划等现行政策工具直接对接,保障研究成果的落地应用。因此,本文采用Z-score法对供给量与需求量进行标准化,将供需潜力分别划分为高、中、低3个等级,构建二维关系矩阵。划定行政村尺度下4类整治类型:①优先整治区(A),该类地区闲置的建设用地较多,乡村发展需求较高。需要快速释放潜力去满足乡村振兴发展所需的建设用地指标。②储备调控区(B),该类地区往往具有较大的整治潜力,但由于人口回流缓慢、产业规划未明确等问题,导致发展需求较低。③需求引导区(C),常常位于生态敏感或地区经济水平较低,可整治地块零散,复垦成本高。但地区需要足够的土地资源进行产业布局和民生改善。④稳定管控区(D),该类地区由于自身限制因素较多,自身土地资源供给和发展需求均较低。
2)主导功能需求识别
上文从“三生”功能方面去识别农村居民点的需求潜力,但是不同农村居民点有着多种功能需求,识别居民点主导功能需求是研究农村居民点精准化潜力释放路径的基础。参考杨忍等[2]的识别方法,当乡村单元某种功能指数的数值大于其标准差和平均值之和,将该功能称为主导功能。若某一农村居民点存在2种以上主导功能或不存在主导功能则被称为均衡发展型。根据上述的分类方法,将农村居民点识别出4种主导功能需求:生产主导型、生活主导型、生态主导型和均衡发展型。
3)村域尺度下农村居民点整治类型划分
根据农村居民点整治潜力分区和农村居民点整治意愿模拟的结果构建关系矩阵,形成4×4矩阵,生成16种组合,考虑实际的整治情况合并为12种行政村单元整治类型:产业振兴先导型(A1)、宜居社区建设型(A2)、生态价值实现型(A3)、三生融合引导型(A4)、战略储备型(B1)、弹性服务配置型(B2)、特色产业激活型(C1)、安全宜居提升型(C2)、生态保护修复型(C3)、多元约束突破型(C4)、微更新型(D1)、严格保护型(D2)。
整治意愿模拟选取句容市城乡增减挂钩拆旧区图斑3413个(总面积1402.62 hm2)作为正样本,同时按照9∶1的比例选取新增建设用地作为负向样本构成训练集进行模型训练,以挖掘农村建设用地历史整治图斑的一般规律。最终根据模型精度验证得出模型的准确率为87.81%,召回率为95.48%,模型整体准确度基本可靠。利用训练好的模型对句容市现状农村居民点用地图斑进行模拟预测,得出现状农村居民点用地图斑的整治意愿分布结果(图3a)。经统计,整治意愿在0.6以上的图斑面积为9137.22 hm2,占总整治面积的65.84%,说明句容市农村居民点整治的整体意愿较高。1000 m2以上的图斑面积为12781.79 hm2,占总面积的93.77%,说明模型获得的整治图斑连片度较好,有利于在实际整治工程中进行成片整治,具有一定合理性。根据农村居民点整治意愿模拟的结果,分区汇总得到各个行政村的整治意愿情况(图3b)。结果表明中心城区附近的农村居民点整治意愿较低,整治意愿较高的农村居民点主要位于东南部的茅山风景区、茅山镇、后白镇和天王镇。
基于句容市农村常住人口变化趋势,并结合《村镇规划标准》(GB50188-2007)和句容市的实际情况,确定2023年句容市农村居民点人均建设用地标准为150 m2,句容市农村居民点整治理论潜力约为8490.19 hm2,占现状面积的61.51%。根据整治意愿修正后,规划期内句容农村居民点整治潜力约为5441.91 hm2,占理论潜力的64.1%,占现状农村居民点用地总量的39.42%。用自然断点法将各行政村整治潜力分成高、中、低3个等级(图3c),各乡镇农村居民点整治潜力结果见表2
从整治潜力的空间分布来看,高潜力的村庄主要分布在句容市中部华阳街道、白兔镇、后白镇和茅山镇以及北部宝华山国家森林公园地区,共26个村,占村庄总数的13.83%,涉及整治潜力1920.41 hm2。该区域呈现现状建设用地较大,村庄人口较少、村民和政府整治意愿较高的特征。中潜力的村庄共64个,占村庄总数的34.04%;低潜力的村庄共98个,占村庄总数的52.13%。这些村庄离中心城区和乡镇(街道)政府位置较近,且本身村庄建设用地有限,人口较多,因此村民和政府整治意愿较低,影响整治潜力。
根据句容市镇级乡村振兴发展需求潜力测算,结果显示,发展需求潜力综合得分指数在0.20~0.60之间(图4)。其中高需求的农村居民点主要分布在华阳街道、黄梅街道、郭庄镇以及北部的宝华镇和下蜀镇,共32个村,占村庄总数的17%。该类型居民点靠近城区或镇区中心,农村劳动力人口比例较高且集体经营性建设用地占比较高,耕地资源丰富,自身产业发展基础较好,因此迫切需要通过对闲置农村居民点的盘活利用满足其产业发展空间。中需求的居民点分布在句容市大部分地区,共100个村,占村庄总数的53%,生产、生活、生态功能需求兼具。低需求区域主要集中在市域南部,共56个村,占村庄总数的30%。这些地区劳动力人口等指标整体偏低,对生产功能的需求较小,未来主要以提高人居环境质量,满足村庄居民的生活功能需求为主。
根据供需潜力的测算结果进行供需均衡度分析,形成村域尺度下农村居民点整治供需潜力的分区结果,包括优先整治区、储备调控区、需求引导区和稳定管控区等4种类型(图5a)。各农村居民点表现出显著差异。其中优先整治区以“高供给-高需求”和“中供给-中需求”的组合为主,共有43个村,占村庄总数的23%,主要分布在华阳街道、黄梅街道、郭庄镇、下蜀镇和后白镇等部分地区,这些地区土地闲置严重,政府和村民整治意愿较其他地区要高,并且乡村振兴需求迫切,亟需通过整治释放空间。储备调控区以“中供给-低需求”的组合为主,共有35个村,占村庄总数的18%,主要分布在市域西南部的后白镇、茅山风景区和天王镇,这些地区土地资源供给充足,但是乡村振兴的发展需求较低,土地资源闲置现象突出,总体呈现供大于求的特征。
需求引导区以“低供给-中需求”组合为主,共有73个村,占村庄总数的39%,分布在中心城区附近地区、宝华镇、边城镇和郭庄镇。该类地区一方面人均建设用地较其他村庄低,另一方面居民点整治受地形等阻力情况较大,如宝华镇平均坡度较高(10.08%,11个乡镇街道中最高),居民点整治成本较高。稳定管控区以“低供给-低需求”的组合为主,共37个村,占村庄总数的20%,主要分布在市域东部区域,包括白兔镇、茅山镇和茅山风景区等乡镇,这类农村居民点整理的现实潜力较小,现状发展稳定,无迫切的新增空间需求。
根据上文的识别方法共识别出4种主导功能需求,并且呈现出显著的空间布局特征(图5b)。生产主导型共有11个村,占村庄总数的6%,集中分布在黄梅街道和市域北部宝华镇和下蜀镇,主要是由于该类型村庄区位、交通和经济条件较好,将经济振兴与产业升级作为首要目标。生活主导型共有21个村,占村庄总数的11%,集中分布在市域南部后白镇、郭庄镇和天王镇部分地区,该区域发展将提升公共服务设施与保障民生福祉作为核心诉求。生态主导型共有26个村,占村庄总数的14%,主要分布在宝华山森林公园、赤山湖湿地公园和茅山风景区等附近区域,人类生产生活等活动易对生态敏感区产生一定影响,亟需生态治理。均衡发展型村庄共有130个,占村庄总数的69%,句容市大部分村庄均没有明确主导功能需求,呈现均衡化特征,空间分布较为分散。
据农村居民点供需分区和主导功能需求识别的结果,对农村居民点整治类型进行识别(图5c)将句容市农村居民点分为产业振兴先导型等11种整治类型(其中不涉及B2弹性服务配置型),并汇总到各镇街(表3)。其中,多元约束突破型(C4)村庄占比最高,共42个行政村,占比22%,主要分布在白兔镇、郭庄镇、边城镇和黄梅街道。该类型村庄自身整治需求较高,但无明确产业发展方向,且土地整治过程受资金、地形等因素影响较大。战略储备型(B1)村庄数量次之,共有35个行政村,占比19%,主要分布在市域南部的后白镇、天王镇和茅山风景区。说明句容市南部地区农村居民点土地资源供大于求,且村庄发展导向暂时不明确。微更新型(D1)村庄共有31个,占全市行政村的16%,主要分布在市域南部的天王镇和茅山风景区以及北部的边城镇和下蜀镇。这些村庄远离中心城区,主要以宅基地为主,发展目标主要以提高地区人居环境,改善居民生活水平为主。而宜居社区建设型(A2)和特色产业激活型(C1)数量最少,为4个。说明一方面句容市多数村庄的基础设施已得到基本保障,因此需要大规模集中安置、彻底重建的村庄数量有限。另一方面句容市农村地区产业发展还是以规模化的农业生产和产业园区为主,对于小规模的特色产业发展还未形成相应的发展条件。基于农村居民点整治类型划分,因地制宜、分类有序地推进农村居民点整治,能够为农村土地要素的顺畅流通以及乡村振兴过程中的土地要素供给提供支撑和保障。
根据农村居民点整治类型的划分结果分析,当前农村居民点普遍面临土地资源供需错配、公共服务设施供给不足、内生发展动力欠缺以及空间布局零散低效等突出问题。为此,本研究遵循“路径选择—策略适配—目标实现”的递进逻辑,构建差异化、精准化的农村居民点整治潜力释放路径框架(图6)。首先,依据供需潜力分区结果,明确各类村庄整治的总体方向与核心路径;其次,结合主导功能需求识别,进一步细化整治策略,实现“一村一策”的精准干预;最终,通过分类施策,推动土地节约集约利用、乡村功能提升与空间格局优化,系统支撑乡村振兴战略目标的实现。
优先整治区宜采用以“空间重构”为主导的整治路径。通过系统性、规模化的空间重组快速释放土地潜力,以支撑乡村振兴目标的实质推进。针对区域内差异化的主导功能需求,具体路径应做如下区分:对于生产主导村庄,应依托优势区位条件和较好的经济发展水平。综合运用城乡建设用地增减挂钩、集体经营性建设用地入市等政策工具,推动全域土地整治工作。对原有村庄通过空间组合重构、权属归并等方式,将现存零散、交织的土地资源进行置换与整合,并结合规划重新划分为集中连片的产业用地[6],如现代化农业园区或绿色加工园区,承接城市功能与产业转移。生活主导村庄,应以尊重农民意愿为前提,遵循“先建新、后拆旧”原则,引导居民有序向规模适度、设施完善、生活便利、管理有序的新型农村社区集聚[3]。释放的整治潜力应优先用于补齐公共服务设施与市政基础设施短板,全面提升人居环境的便利性与舒适度。生态主导村庄,应紧密结合地方生态资源禀赋与分布特征,将腾退的建设用地优先用于发展生态康养、自然教育、低碳旅游等绿色产业,探索生态产品价值实现机制,推动“绿水青山”向“金山银山”的有效转化。均衡发展村庄,由于缺乏单一显著导向,应在村庄规划顶层设计中强化生产、生活、生态空间的深度融合。需突破传统功能分区思维,利用整治潜力积极培育功能复合的乡村空间,例如融合生产与生活功能的家庭工坊,兼具生态与生产价值的景观农业等,以此突出规划的系统性与项目的多功能集成特征。
储备调控区宜采用“弹性服务,战略储备”为主的整治路径。该区域土地资源供给相对充裕,而现实发展需求尚不明确。为避免资源闲置与低效利用,一方面应推进区域基础设施与公共服务资源的协调共享;另一方面应对优质土地实施战略性储备,以灵活应对未来发展需求的不确定性。具体从主导功能需求来看:对于生产、生态主导和均衡发展村庄可采用“战略储备”的方式,将连片优质建设用地划定为“战略留白区”,纳入国土空间规划重点管控。允许短期低门槛利用,例如作为共享仓储或临时市集等村庄发展用地,为未来一二三产融合型项目保留用地指标。对于部分零散用地,可借鉴“飞地经济”的经验,将闲置的土地指标作价入股经济发达地区的产业项目,从一次性的指标交易收入转变为长期性的分红收益保障。对于生活主导村庄(B2)可采用“弹性服务配套”的方式,该类型村庄以生活需求为主,可适当提高现有基础设施的质量,实现跨区域公共服务设施共享服务,以应对周边地区未来潜在的人口变化。
需求引导区宜采用“精准引导,创新激活”为主的整治路径。在土地资源集约的条件下,需通过整治模式创新与项目引导的方式,着力满足最为迫切的发展需求。具体从主导功能需求来看:对于生产主导村庄,该类村庄需要整合现有闲置建设用地,对于与周边农用地交织的用地,可以采用复垦的方式使“小田变大田”。对于盘活利用条件较好的用地,探索土地整治+精准联动产业招商模式:在土地整治之前,就对用地进行产业功能策划,确定产业类型,采用预招商的方式针对性地对各类空间提供定制化的整治方案。利用零星存量建设用地和闲置农房,以“点状供地”方式发展精品民宿、手工作坊等庭院经济。对于生活主导村庄,优先实施地质灾害点搬迁、危房改造、生活污水治理等保障性工程,并集中改善村内道路、照明、环卫等基本人居环境。对于生态主导村庄,须坚持“生态安全优先”原则。通过政策法规或规划明确禁止或限制开发行为,确保生态功能不退化,位于生态管控区或地质灾害区内的居民点用地应进行有序腾退,进行生态修复。对于均衡发展村庄,此类村庄面临多重约束且内生动力不足,宜采用“小微项目渐进式更新”路径。通过点状评估与精准施策,利用村庄规划作为政策工具,实施一系列投资小、见效快的综合性小微项目,逐步摆脱复杂困境,激发村庄活力。例如句容市宝华镇的铜山村,一方面,对零散、低效宅基地实施“点状退出”,优先复垦为生态用地或小型公共空间,腾退指标通过“增减挂钩”异地置换至城镇开发区,换取资金反哺乡村;另一方面,采取多元化的补偿方式,如现金补偿、镇区安置等鼓励村民自愿放弃闲置房屋,以便获得乡村振兴发展的土地资源。
稳定管控区宜采用“微更新,严格管控”为主的整治路径,重点面向用地相对集约、但基础设施与人居环境有待完善的村庄,旨在提升农村居民生活品质,并严格控制无序建设,维系乡村社会与空间结构的稳定。具体从主导功能需求来看:对于生产、生活主导和均衡发展村庄,以盘活利用为主,拆旧复垦为辅的手段进行整治。在保障基本居住需求、补齐公共服务短板的前提下再对闲置建设用地进行复垦。重点在于对村庄居民点内部建筑进行评估,精准改造建筑质量较差的房屋,聚焦宅前屋后绿化、污水管网入户等项目的落实,提高村庄人居环境质量。对于生态主导村庄,一方面需要严格落实“一户一宅”政策,防范违法、违建现象的发生。同时对零散的工业用地进行有序腾退,恢复生态本底。另一方面运用遥感监测、智能巡检等技术手段,对生态敏感区域实施常态化、动态化监测,确保生态环境免遭破坏。
推动农村居民点土地整治,释放农村土地资源,优化农村空间布局,是乡村全面振兴战略实施的必然要求。本文以供需均衡理论为基础,以保障乡村优先发展为前提,对江苏省句容市农村居民点供需潜力进行测算,并结合村庄主导功能,识别出村域尺度下农村居民点整治类型并探究整治路径。具体结论如下:
1)经测算句容市农村居民点整治理论潜力为8490.19 hm2。基于机器学习模拟的农村居民点整治意愿模型的准确率为87.81%,召回率为95.48%,可靠度较高。将整治意愿汇总到各个行政村,结果显示高意愿的村庄主要分布在远离中心城区的区域。经整治意愿修正后的整治现实潜力为5441.91 hm2,占现状农村居民点用地的39.42%。
2)乡村振兴发展需求指数在0.20~0.60之间,表现为“西高东低,组团分布”的格局,其中需求最高的居民点主要分布在华阳街道、郭庄镇和黄梅街道等,因地区经济发展水平较高,人口较多导致乡村发展的用地需求强度均较高。县域东南部区域部分地区如天王镇、茅山风景区等,乡村地区人口外流严重,经济发展水平相对一般,乡村振兴发展的用地需求也随之降低。供需潜力在空间分布上呈现错配现象。
3)根据供需潜力测算结果划定优先整治区、储备调控区等四类供需潜力分区。并结合识别的主导功能需求,通过交叉矩阵进一步将村庄细分为产业振兴先导型(A1)、宜居社区建设型(A2)等12类村域整治类型,其中,多元约束突破型(C4)村庄数量最多。针对不同整治类型和村庄特点总结出多元化的潜力释放路径,明确了村域尺度下农村居民点整治的目标与方向,为乡村振兴提供了实践路径。
但研究仍存在一些不足:一是评价指标体系主要基于静态数据,未能动态揭示农村居民点土地供需关系的演变规律,后续研究可纳入动态时间数据,以完善对过程与机制的解析。二是关于农民整治意愿的模拟准确性有待进一步研究,本文通过历史拆旧数据作为机器学习的样本进行模拟,但是人的行为决策是一个复杂的过程,未来智能体决策建模的方法是研究个体因素对整治潜力影响的主要方向。

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2026年第42卷第12期
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doi: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202510060
  • 接收时间:2025-10-13
  • 首发时间:2026-08-20
  • 出版时间:2026-06-30
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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-13
  • 修回日期:2026-04-29
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    1南京工业大学建筑学院,南京 211816
    2南京工业大学应急治理与政策研究院,南京 211816
    3南京城市职业学院康养工程学院,南京 211200
    4华东理工大学城乡文化遗产研究中心,上海 200237
    5江苏省国土资源研究中心,南京 210017

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夏季,正高级工程师,研究方向为乡村社区治理与社区规划。Email:
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
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