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极端天气威胁粮食安全，政府救助是稳定农户种粮积极性的关键举措。基于山东省508份粮食种植户调研数据，运用有序probi模型分析发现：政府救助在1%水平上显著正向影响种粮积极性，该结论经内生性处理和稳健性检验后仍成立；其作用机制为降低农户风险感知；且对农业收入占比高、文化程度高的农户激励效应更强。建议健全风险保障机制、完善政策性农业保险、加强农户禀赋调查，以稳固地区粮食安全。

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