Article(id=1292187244853490435, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, issueId=1292187163098112845, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.11693/hyhz20260100001, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1767542400000, receivedDateStr=2026-01-05, revisedDate=1770825600000, revisedDateStr=2026-02-12, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1786011046850, onlineDateStr=2026-08-06, pubDate=1780070400000, pubDateStr=2026-05-30, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1786011046850, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-08-06, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1786011046850, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1786011046850, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1292187163098112845, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, year='2026', volume='57', issue='3', pageStart='579', pageEnd='830', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1780070400000', pubDateStr='2026-05-30', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1786011027358, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1786013993148, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1292199602611056777, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, issueId=1292187163098112845, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1292199602611056778, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, issueId=1292187163098112845, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=707, endPage=720, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1292187245075788548, articleId=1292187244853490435, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, language=EN, title=MAP OF RED TIDE OCCURRENCE RISK IN CHINESE SEAS——AN ASSESSMENT BASED ON THE DIVERSITY AND ABUNDANCE OF DINOFLAGELLATE CYSTS IN SEDIMENTS, columnId=1292187198095384612, journalTitle=Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, columnName=ARTICLES, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In recent decades, harmful algal blooms (HABs), particularly red tide events caused by dinoflagellates, have occurred frequently in China’s coastal waters, threatening marine ecological security, economic and social development, and human health. Considering the diversity and abundance of dinoflagellate cysts in sediments from 267 stations in China’s four major seas during 2014-2018, this study integrated historical HAB records and literature on the distribution and abundance of vegetative cells in water bodies. By applying the typical red tide risk assessment method, risk maps for red tide outbreaks of 26 target dinoflagellate species in China’s seas were compiled, and the assessment results were interpreted and discussed. The target dinoflagellates exhibited varying degrees of red tide risk values. Among them, 11 species (Scrippsiella acuminata, Scrippsiella donghaiensis, Gonyaulax spinifera, Alexandrium catenella, Levanderina fissa, Pseudocochlodinium profundisulcus, Alexandrium pacificum, Alexandrium minutum, Gonyaulax polygramma, Akashiwo sanguinea,and Prorocentrum donghaiense) showed high-risk characteristics at certain monitoring stations, whereas 21 species displayed moderately high-risk characteristics. Additionally, the risk values of different dinoflagellates varied across China’s four major seas and presented distinct regional features. For example, the red tide risk values of Pr. donghaiense and Ps. profundisulcus in the East and South China Seas, respectively, were significantly higher than those in other sea areas. Correlation analysis showed that 37 pairs and 5 pairs of dinoflagellate species showed significantly positive and negative correlations in their risk values, respectively, reflecting certain synergistic or competitive relationships in their ecological niches. This study provides a scientific basis for preventing and controlling red tides in China’s coastal waters, and a reference for similar studies in other marine areas worldwide, and for the prediction and forecasting of red tides.

, authors=Li-Xia SHANG1, 2, 3, Ben WEI1, 4, Zhang-Xi HU5, Zheng LU4, Yun-Yan DENG1, 2, 3, , Ying-Zhong TANG1, 2, 3, , authorsList=Li-Xia SHANG, Ben WEI, Zhang-Xi HU, Zheng LU, Yun-Yan DENG, Ying-Zhong TANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Yun-Yan DENG, Ying-Zhong TANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1292187248158601999, articleId=1292187244853490435, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, language=CN, title=中国海域赤潮风险地图——基于甲藻孢囊多样性和丰度的赤潮发生风险评估, columnId=1292187198254768166, journalTitle=海洋与湖沼, columnName=研究论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

过去几十年以来我国近海有害藻华特别是由甲藻引起的赤潮事件频发, 严重威胁海洋生态安全、经济社会发展甚至人类健康。基于中国四大海域267个站位2014~2018年沉积物中甲藻孢囊多样性和丰度数据, 并整合历史藻华事件记录和水体中营养细胞分布和丰度文献, 运用前期构建并局域应用的典型赤潮发生风险评估方法, 绘制了中国海域26种重要目标甲藻的赤潮发生风险地图, 并对该评估结果进行阐释和讨论。结果表明, 目标甲藻具有不同程度的赤潮发生风险, 其中11种甲藻(尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、深沟假旋沟藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、微小亚历山大藻、多纹膝沟藻、红色赤潮藻和东海原甲藻)在部分监测站位呈现高风险特征, 共有21种甲藻呈现中高风险特征。而不同甲藻在中国四大海域的风险值具有差异并呈现明显的区域特征, 如东海原甲藻和深沟假旋沟藻的赤潮发生风险值分别在东海和南海显著高于其他海域。相关性分析结果显示, 37对和5对甲藻的赤潮发生风险值分别呈现显著正相关和显著负相关关系, 体现了其在生态位上存在一定的协同性或竞争关系。本研究可为我国近海赤潮预警预测和防控提供科学依据, 也为全球其他海域同类研究以及赤潮的预测预报提供参考。

, authors=尚丽霞1, 2, 3, 魏本1, 4, 胡章喜5, 鲁正4, 邓蕴彦1, 2, 3, , 唐赢中1, 2, 3, , authorsList=尚丽霞, 魏本, 胡章喜, 鲁正, 邓蕴彦, 唐赢中, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=邓蕴彦, 唐赢中, authorNote=

尚丽霞, 助理研究员, E-mail:

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邓蕴彦, 硕士生导师, 研究员, E-mail:
唐赢中, 博士生导师, 研究员, E-mail:
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caption=中国海域沉积物样品监测站位图, figureFileSmall=zGKZw5jHeEzfCrBexEWLfg==, figureFileBig=ZKrCMMiMhv60IKaN7zsFAg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1292187254877877076, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, articleId=1292187244853490435, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=The average risk values of 26 target dinoflagellate species at all monitoring sites (a) and in the four seas (b), figureFileSmall=A82BI8hRwEMqK+i/HqMv0A==, figureFileBig=Fi3X3PUMLDQvkFvS1ZKhqQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1292187254961763157, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, articleId=1292187244853490435, language=CN, label=图2, caption=26种目标甲藻在所有监测位点(a)和四大海域(b)根据公式(1)计算的赤潮发生风险平均值

注: 1-尖顶斯氏藻(Scrippsiella acuminata); 2-东海斯氏藻(Scrippsiella donghaiensis); 3-具刺膝沟藻(Gonyaulax spinifera); 4-链状亚历山大藻(Alexandrium catenella); 5-垂裂莱万藻(Levanderina fissa); 6-链状裸甲藻(Gymnodinium catenatum); 7-剧毒卡尔藻(Karlodinium veneficum); 8-多纹膝沟藻(Gonyaulax polygramma); 9-米氏凯伦藻(Karenia mikimotoi); 10-红色赤潮藻(Akashiwo sanguinea); 11-多环马格里夫藻(Margalefidinium polykrikoides); 12-微小亚历山大藻(Alexandrium minutum); 13-东海原甲藻(Prorocentrum donghaiense); 14-太平洋亚历山大藻(Alexandrium pacificum); 15-深沟假旋沟藻(Pseudocochlodinium profundisulcus); 16-哈曼褐多沟藻(Pheopolykrikos hartmannii); 17-相近亚历山大藻(Alexandrium affine); 18-拟膝沟亚历山大藻(Alexandrium pseudogoniaulax); 19-多边舌甲藻(Lingulaulax polyedra); 20-异常亚历山大藻(Alexandrium insuetum); 21-奥氏亚历山大藻(Alexandrium ostenfeldii); 22-李氏亚历山大藻(Alexandrium leei); 23-腹孔环胺藻(Azadinium poporum); 24-三角隐甲藻(Kryptoperidinium triquetrum); 25-杀鱼费氏藻(Pfiesteria piscicida); 26-安德森亚历山大藻(Alexandrium andersonii)

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注: 红色实线和绿色虚线分别指示正相关和负相关

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注: BS-渤海; YS-黄海; ES-东海; SS-南海; 1-尖顶斯氏藻(Scrippsiella acuminata); 2-东海斯氏藻(Scrippsiella donghaiensis); 3-具刺膝沟藻(Gonyaulax spinifera); 4-链状亚历山大藻(Alexandrium catenella); 5-垂裂莱万藻(Levanderina fissa); 6-链状裸甲藻(Gymnodinium catenatum); 7-剧毒卡尔藻(Karlodinium veneficum); 8-多纹膝沟藻(Gonyaulax polygramma); 9-米氏凯伦藻(Karenia mikimotoi); 10-红色赤潮藻(Akashiwo sanguinea); 11-多环马格里夫藻(Margalefidinium polykrikoides); 12-微小亚历山大藻(Alexandrium minutum); 13-东海原甲藻(Prorocentrum donghaiense); 14-太平洋亚历山大藻(Alexandrium pacificum); 15-深沟假旋沟藻(Pseudocochlodinium profundisulcus); 16-哈曼褐多沟藻(Pheopolykrikos hartmannii); 17-相近亚历山大藻(Alexandrium affine); 18-拟膝沟亚历山大藻(Alexandrium pseudogoniaulax); 19-多边舌甲藻(Lingulaulax polyedra); 20-异常亚历山大藻(Alexandrium insuetum); 21-奥氏亚历山大藻(Alexandrium ostenfeldii); 22-李氏亚历山大藻(Alexandrium leei); 23-腹孔环胺藻(Azadinium poporum); 24-三角隐甲藻(Kryptoperidinium triquetrum); 25-杀鱼费氏藻(Pfiesteria piscicida); 26-安德森亚历山大藻(Alexandrium andersonii)

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The 26 target dinoflagellate species and their HAB records and toxic characteristics

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
甲藻拉丁名甲藻中文名赤潮事件记录毒性特征
渤海黄海东海南海
Akashiwo sanguinea红色赤潮藻++++溶血性毒素
Alexandrium affine相近亚历山大藻麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium andersonii安德森亚历山大藻麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium catenella链状亚历山大藻++麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium insuetum异常亚历山大藻未知毒素
Alexandrium leei李氏亚历山大藻未知毒素
Alexandrium minutum微小亚历山大藻++麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium ostenfeldii奥氏亚历山大藻麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium pacificum太平洋亚历山大藻+麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium pseudogoniaulax拟膝沟亚历山大藻Goniodomin
Azadinium poporum腹孔环胺藻氮杂螺环酸
Gonyaulax polygramma多纹膝沟藻++++毒素未知
Gonyaulax spinifera具刺膝沟藻++++虾夷扇贝毒素
Gymnodinium catenatum链状裸甲藻++++麻痹性贝毒
Karenia mikimotoi米氏凯伦藻++++鱼毒素
Karlodinium veneficum剧毒卡尔藻+++卡尔藻毒素
Kryptoperidinium triquetrum三角隐甲藻未知毒素
Levanderina fissa垂裂莱万藻+++未知毒素
Lingulaulax polyedra多边舌甲藻虾夷扇贝毒素
Margalefidinium polykrikoides多环马格里夫藻++++未知毒素
Pfiesteria piscicida杀鱼费氏藻未知毒素
Pheopolykrikos hartmannii哈曼褐多沟藻未知毒素
Prorocentrum donghaiense东海原甲藻++
Pseudocochlodinium profundisulcus深沟假旋沟藻+未知毒素
Scrippsiella acuminata尖顶斯氏藻++++未知毒素
Scrippsiella donghaiensis东海斯氏藻毒性未知
), ArticleFig(id=1292187255683183453, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, articleId=1292187244853490435, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

26种目标甲藻名录及其赤潮事件记录和毒性特征

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
甲藻拉丁名甲藻中文名赤潮事件记录毒性特征
渤海黄海东海南海
Akashiwo sanguinea红色赤潮藻++++溶血性毒素
Alexandrium affine相近亚历山大藻麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium andersonii安德森亚历山大藻麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium catenella链状亚历山大藻++麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium insuetum异常亚历山大藻未知毒素
Alexandrium leei李氏亚历山大藻未知毒素
Alexandrium minutum微小亚历山大藻++麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium ostenfeldii奥氏亚历山大藻麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium pacificum太平洋亚历山大藻+麻痹性贝毒
Alexandrium pseudogoniaulax拟膝沟亚历山大藻Goniodomin
Azadinium poporum腹孔环胺藻氮杂螺环酸
Gonyaulax polygramma多纹膝沟藻++++毒素未知
Gonyaulax spinifera具刺膝沟藻++++虾夷扇贝毒素
Gymnodinium catenatum链状裸甲藻++++麻痹性贝毒
Karenia mikimotoi米氏凯伦藻++++鱼毒素
Karlodinium veneficum剧毒卡尔藻+++卡尔藻毒素
Kryptoperidinium triquetrum三角隐甲藻未知毒素
Levanderina fissa垂裂莱万藻+++未知毒素
Lingulaulax polyedra多边舌甲藻虾夷扇贝毒素
Margalefidinium polykrikoides多环马格里夫藻++++未知毒素
Pfiesteria piscicida杀鱼费氏藻未知毒素
Pheopolykrikos hartmannii哈曼褐多沟藻未知毒素
Prorocentrum donghaiense东海原甲藻++
Pseudocochlodinium profundisulcus深沟假旋沟藻+未知毒素
Scrippsiella acuminata尖顶斯氏藻++++未知毒素
Scrippsiella donghaiensis东海斯氏藻毒性未知
), ArticleFig(id=1292187255796429662, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, articleId=1292187244853490435, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

List of dinoflagellate species with high- or moderate-to-high-risk of HAB occurrence in one or more sea region

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
评估单元高风险等级甲藻名录中高风险等级甲藻名录
渤海尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、红色赤潮藻、微小亚历山大藻尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、多纹膝沟藻、米氏凯伦藻、红色赤潮藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、多边舌甲藻、异常亚历山大藻、奥氏亚历山大藻
黄海尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、多纹膝沟藻、红色赤潮藻、微小亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻、深沟假旋沟藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、异常亚历山大藻、三角隐甲藻
东海尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、东海原甲藻、深沟假旋沟藻尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、东海原甲藻、深沟假旋沟藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻
南海尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、多纹膝沟藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、深沟假旋沟藻尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、链状裸甲藻、多纹膝沟藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻、深沟假旋沟藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、异常亚历山大藻
), ArticleFig(id=1292187255859344223, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1291416733694918677, articleId=1292187244853490435, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

各评估单元中的高风险和中高风险甲藻名录

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
评估单元高风险等级甲藻名录中高风险等级甲藻名录
渤海尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、红色赤潮藻、微小亚历山大藻尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、多纹膝沟藻、米氏凯伦藻、红色赤潮藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、多边舌甲藻、异常亚历山大藻、奥氏亚历山大藻
黄海尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、多纹膝沟藻、红色赤潮藻、微小亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻、深沟假旋沟藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、异常亚历山大藻、三角隐甲藻
东海尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、东海原甲藻、深沟假旋沟藻尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、东海原甲藻、深沟假旋沟藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻
南海尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、多纹膝沟藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、深沟假旋沟藻尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、链状裸甲藻、多纹膝沟藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻、深沟假旋沟藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、异常亚历山大藻
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中国海域赤潮风险地图——基于甲藻孢囊多样性和丰度的赤潮发生风险评估
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尚丽霞 1, 2, 3 , 魏本 1, 4 , 胡章喜 5 , 鲁正 4 , 邓蕴彦 1, 2, 3, , 唐赢中 1, 2, 3,
海洋与湖沼 | 研究论文 2026,57(3): 707-720
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海洋与湖沼 |研究论文 2026 , 57 (3) : 707 -720
中国海域赤潮风险地图——基于甲藻孢囊多样性和丰度的赤潮发生风险评估
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尚丽霞1, 2, 3 , 魏本1, 4, 胡章喜5, 鲁正4, 邓蕴彦1, 2, 3, , 唐赢中1, 2, 3,
作者信息
  • 1中国科学院海洋研究所海洋生态与环境科学实验室 山东青岛 266000
  • 2青岛海洋科技中心海洋生态与环境科学功能实验室 山东青岛 266237
  • 3中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心 山东青岛 266071
  • 4哈尔滨工程大学青岛创新发展基地 山东青岛 266000
  • 5广东海洋大学水产学院 广东湛江 524088
通讯作者:
邓蕴彦, 硕士生导师, 研究员, E-mail:
唐赢中, 博士生导师, 研究员, E-mail:
作者简介:

尚丽霞, 助理研究员, E-mail:

MAP OF RED TIDE OCCURRENCE RISK IN CHINESE SEAS——AN ASSESSMENT BASED ON THE DIVERSITY AND ABUNDANCE OF DINOFLAGELLATE CYSTS IN SEDIMENTS
Li-Xia SHANG1, 2, 3 , Ben WEI1, 4, Zhang-Xi HU5, Zheng LU4, Yun-Yan DENG1, 2, 3, , Ying-Zhong TANG1, 2, 3,
Affiliations
  • 1Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266000, China
  • 2Functional Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center, Qingdao 266237, China
  • 3Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
  • 4Qingdao Innovation and Development Base, Harbin Engineering University, Qingdao 266000, China
  • 5College of Fisheries, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China
出版时间: 2026-05-30 doi: 10.11693/hyhz20260100001
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过去几十年以来我国近海有害藻华特别是由甲藻引起的赤潮事件频发, 严重威胁海洋生态安全、经济社会发展甚至人类健康。基于中国四大海域267个站位2014~2018年沉积物中甲藻孢囊多样性和丰度数据, 并整合历史藻华事件记录和水体中营养细胞分布和丰度文献, 运用前期构建并局域应用的典型赤潮发生风险评估方法, 绘制了中国海域26种重要目标甲藻的赤潮发生风险地图, 并对该评估结果进行阐释和讨论。结果表明, 目标甲藻具有不同程度的赤潮发生风险, 其中11种甲藻(尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻、具刺膝沟藻、链状亚历山大藻、垂裂莱万藻、深沟假旋沟藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、微小亚历山大藻、多纹膝沟藻、红色赤潮藻和东海原甲藻)在部分监测站位呈现高风险特征, 共有21种甲藻呈现中高风险特征。而不同甲藻在中国四大海域的风险值具有差异并呈现明显的区域特征, 如东海原甲藻和深沟假旋沟藻的赤潮发生风险值分别在东海和南海显著高于其他海域。相关性分析结果显示, 37对和5对甲藻的赤潮发生风险值分别呈现显著正相关和显著负相关关系, 体现了其在生态位上存在一定的协同性或竞争关系。本研究可为我国近海赤潮预警预测和防控提供科学依据, 也为全球其他海域同类研究以及赤潮的预测预报提供参考。

有害藻华  /  赤潮暴发风险  /  风险评估  /  甲藻  /  孢囊  /  休眠体

In recent decades, harmful algal blooms (HABs), particularly red tide events caused by dinoflagellates, have occurred frequently in China’s coastal waters, threatening marine ecological security, economic and social development, and human health. Considering the diversity and abundance of dinoflagellate cysts in sediments from 267 stations in China’s four major seas during 2014-2018, this study integrated historical HAB records and literature on the distribution and abundance of vegetative cells in water bodies. By applying the typical red tide risk assessment method, risk maps for red tide outbreaks of 26 target dinoflagellate species in China’s seas were compiled, and the assessment results were interpreted and discussed. The target dinoflagellates exhibited varying degrees of red tide risk values. Among them, 11 species (Scrippsiella acuminata, Scrippsiella donghaiensis, Gonyaulax spinifera, Alexandrium catenella, Levanderina fissa, Pseudocochlodinium profundisulcus, Alexandrium pacificum, Alexandrium minutum, Gonyaulax polygramma, Akashiwo sanguinea,and Prorocentrum donghaiense) showed high-risk characteristics at certain monitoring stations, whereas 21 species displayed moderately high-risk characteristics. Additionally, the risk values of different dinoflagellates varied across China’s four major seas and presented distinct regional features. For example, the red tide risk values of Pr. donghaiense and Ps. profundisulcus in the East and South China Seas, respectively, were significantly higher than those in other sea areas. Correlation analysis showed that 37 pairs and 5 pairs of dinoflagellate species showed significantly positive and negative correlations in their risk values, respectively, reflecting certain synergistic or competitive relationships in their ecological niches. This study provides a scientific basis for preventing and controlling red tides in China’s coastal waters, and a reference for similar studies in other marine areas worldwide, and for the prediction and forecasting of red tides.

harmful algal blooms  /  risk of red tide outbreaks  /  risk assessment  /  dinoflagellates  /  cysts  /  resting stages
尚丽霞, 魏本, 胡章喜, 鲁正, 邓蕴彦, 唐赢中. 中国海域赤潮风险地图——基于甲藻孢囊多样性和丰度的赤潮发生风险评估. 海洋与湖沼, 2026 , 57 (3) : 707 -720 . DOI: 10.11693/hyhz20260100001
Li-Xia SHANG, Ben WEI, Zhang-Xi HU, Zheng LU, Yun-Yan DENG, Ying-Zhong TANG. MAP OF RED TIDE OCCURRENCE RISK IN CHINESE SEAS——AN ASSESSMENT BASED ON THE DIVERSITY AND ABUNDANCE OF DINOFLAGELLATE CYSTS IN SEDIMENTS[J]. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 2026 , 57 (3) : 707 -720 . DOI: 10.11693/hyhz20260100001
近几十年来, 近海有害藻华暴发规模和频率增大、持续时间更长、致灾效应加重, 是威胁海洋生态安全、经济社会发展和人类健康最为突出的海洋生态灾害之一(俞志明等, 2019; 于仁成等, 2020; Dai et al, 2023)。1988~2023年, 全球已报道的有害藻华暴发总数接近10 000起, 而1987年之前只有约150起(Liu et al, 2024)。在中国海域, 自1933年浙江沿海暴发的夜光藻藻华开始至20世纪末共记载330起; 而后开始显著增加, 2000~2022年发生的有害藻华事件多达1 517起(Yu et al, 2023; 吕颂辉等, 2024)。有害藻华已成为国际社会包括中国共同关注的重大海洋环境问题, 也是海洋生态与环境科学领域的研究热点。
甲藻作为海洋浮游植物的重要类群, 在贡献大量初级生产力之外, 也是海洋有害藻华最主要的肇事类群。据统计, 约有130种甲藻可形成有害藻华(俗称赤潮, 下文除特殊说明外赤潮和藻华作为同义词使用)(Jeong et al, 2021), 所有赤潮事件中75%以上由甲藻引起(Smayda, 1997), 且占已统计的近80种产生藻毒素的微藻中约49% (Peña-Manjarrez et al, 2016)。虽然赤潮演变趋势受多种因素影响, 如赤潮藻的自身生物学特征和宏观及局域环境变化如全球变暖和水体富营养化等, 但已有大量证据清楚表明赤潮藻尤其是甲藻生活史中形成的休眠孢囊是赤潮暴发的关键因子之一, 因为休眠孢囊为赤潮发生提供了起始和发展的种子库(Anderson et al, 1979; Bravo et al, 2014; Kremp et al, 2016; Ellegaard et al, 2018; Castañeda-Quezada et al, 2021; Tang et al, 2021)。虽然在约2 900种甲藻中只有200余种被确认产生孢囊, 但几乎所有赤潮甲藻都被证明可形成孢囊(Tang et al, 2021)。自20世纪80年代以来, 已有若干研究表明, 一般而言, 沉积物中的孢囊分布和丰度能够直接影响甚至决定次年赤潮的暴发及其规模(Mardones et al, 2016; 唐赢中等, 2016)。例如, 美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所Anderson实验室基于长期连续的孢囊分布与丰度调查数据, 对缅因湾链状亚历山大藻(Alexandrium catenella)赤潮开展基于经验模型的预测预报研究, 发现在适宜条件下, 表层沉积物孢囊丰度与次年赤潮规模之间呈较强正相关性(Anderson, 1998; Stock et al, 2005; He et al, 2008; Anderson et al, 2014)。Olli等(2010)也发现沉积物中Woloszynskia sp.孢囊丰度与次年藻华的强度呈正相关, 显示孢囊在藻华起始时对种群增殖起重要作用。我们通过对400余篇涉及甲藻孢囊研究的文献进行分析发现, 受检测技术的影响, 大多数调查仅报道了样品中全部甲藻的丰度, 同时具有孢囊丰度和营养细胞数据的甲藻种类极少, 针对重点赤潮藻的研究主要集中在链状裸甲藻(Gymnodinium catenatum)和几种产毒亚历山大藻。进一步对链状裸甲藻和链状亚历山大藻藻华、营养细胞、孢囊在全球的记录的综合分析发现, 这两种世界广布的甲藻在全球不同海域的最高孢囊丰度和最大营养细胞密度之间均呈显著正相关关系(Figueroa et al, 2008; Anglès et al, 2012; Martin et al, 2014; Fertouna-Bellakhal et al, 2015; Mardones et al, 2016; Liu et al, 2020a; Anderson et al, 2021; Castañeda-Quezada et al, 2021; Rodríguez-Villegas et al, 2022)。因此, 尽管海洋表层沉积物中孢囊的种类和丰度反映的是过去一年到几年的水体中营养细胞种类、细胞密度和孢囊形成状况, 且丰度和存活率受水文条件和人为干扰等影响具有高可变性, 直接用以预测赤潮发生和规模尚需更完备数据支撑, 但在正常物理、化学和气候条件下, 据之对赤潮发生可能性大小做出某种估计也即建立藻华暴发风险的评估方法, 在理论上是合理且可行的。
在前期研究中, 我们首次构建了基于甲藻休眠孢囊分布和丰度的典型赤潮发生赤潮风险评估方法, 并应用于黄海海域(Pan et al, 2025)。该方法的理论依据或逻辑基础可总结如下: (1)甲藻是主要的海洋有害藻华原因种: 甲藻是海洋浮游植物中的重要类群, 其休眠孢囊能长期存活于海洋沉积物中, 是有害藻华暴发的主要种子库(Smayda, 1997; Peña-Manjarrez et al, 2016; 唐赢中等, 2016; Jeong et al, 2021; Tang et al, 2021); (2)休眠孢囊的关键生态学功能: 甲藻休眠孢囊大多通过有性过程形成, 具有较高的遗传多样性和生态适应性; 孢囊的厚壁和休眠状态使其能在极端环境中长期存活, 确保种群的长期延续, 并影响藻华的再度暴发(唐赢中等, 2016; Tang et al, 2021); (3)孢囊丰度与赤潮发生风险的关联性: 多种常见赤潮种类的历史数据分析表明, 在环境条件适宜时, 孢囊丰度和分布直接决定赤潮的潜在发生规模(Anderson, 1998; Stock et al, 2005; He et al, 2008; Olli et al, 2010; Anderson et al, 2014)。该评估通过以下步骤实现: (1)对目标海域根据生态和经济服务功能或管理需要等进行评估单元划分, 得到多个海域评估单元; (2)确定目标海域中需评估风险的有害藻华目标种类; (3)确定“孢囊丰度指标(cyst abundance index, CAI)”、“赤潮事件指标(HAB record index, HABRI)”以及“营养细胞分布指标(vegetative cell monitoring records index, VCMRI)”的权重; (4)计算目标种类在各监测站点风险值; (5)确立目标种类在各监测站点的风险等级; 进而确立目标种类在目标海域各评估单元的风险等级。该方法也可用于能产生休眠体的其他微藻(如针胞藻、抑食金球藻和硅藻等)的藻华暴发风险评估(Pan et al, 2025)。
本研究中, 根据前期建立的基于甲藻休眠孢囊分布和丰度的典型赤潮发生风险评估方法及对黄海海域的评估实践, 进一步基于中国四大海域267个站位沉积物中甲藻孢囊多样性和丰度数据以及对历史藻华事件与水体营养细胞分布记录的整合分析, 绘制中国四大海域甲藻赤潮发生风险地图。研究结果将不仅为我国近海赤潮防控提供科学依据, 也为全球其他海域的同类研究提供方法论参考。
2014~2018年使用箱式采泥器在中国四大海域267个站位采集表层0~2 cm的沉积物样品, 其中渤海37个、黄海87个、东海80个、南海63个。采样站位经度范围108.33°~124.00°E, 纬度范围10.01°~39.85°N (图1)。样品采集后转移至无菌自封袋或离心管中, 在4 ℃、黑暗环境中保存, 直至后续处理。
从每个站位的沉积物中选取1 g样品, 使用FastDNA spin kit (MP Biomedicals, Santa Ana, CA, USA)试剂盒提取DNA, 具体操作严格按照试剂盒说明书进行。提取完成后, 使用ND-2000 Nanodrop分光光度计(Thermo Fisher Scientific, USA)检测所提取DNA的浓度和纯度, 随后将其保存于-80 ℃超低温冰箱(Liu et al, 2023)。将提取的DNA置于干冰中送至杭州联川生物技术股份有限公司, 在NovaSeq-PE250平台上对28S rRNA基因扩增子进行测序。扩增子获得基于针对28S rDNA高可变区D2设计的引物对的PCR扩增(正向引物为28S-F, 5′-KACTTTGRRAAGAGAGTTAAAW-3′; 反向引物为28S-R, 5′-TCYGTGTTTCAAGACGGGTC-3′), 该对引物的特异性和扩增有效性已经多个研究验证(Liu et al, 2023; Chai et al, 2024, 2026; Tao et al, 2025)。对原始测序reads组装后, 在QIIME-II中运用DADA2流程进行数据降噪及嵌合体去除后获得纯净序列(Callahan et al, 2016; Bolyen, 2018)。通过QIIME-I平台以3%差异度阈值为标准对剪切后的DNA序列进行可操作分类单元(Operational Taxonomic Units, OTUs)聚类(Kuczynski et al, 2011)。利用美国国家生物技术信息中心(National Center for Biotechnology Information, NCBI)数据库(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/)对聚类后的序列进行物种分类学初步注释, 继之以分子系统学分析确认。为实行样品间数据比较, 对所有测序数据进行标准化(数据抽平, reads normalization)处理。使用Microsoft Excel软件筛选出注释为甲藻纲(Dinophyceae)的序列, 并对完全鉴定的甲藻种类在物种水平进行相对丰度(relative abundance)分析。
依据Pan等(2025)提出的评估方法, 把中国近海海域划分为渤海、黄海、东海和南海这4个评估单元开展评估。选取高通量测序中完全鉴定的有毒有害或潜在有毒有害的种类作为目标甲藻。为了从不同角度全面、准确地评估甲藻藻华暴发的风险, 根据Pan等(2025)中的赋值原则, 分别对CAI、HABRI以及VCMRI赋值60、30和10分, 并对每个指标的权重进行独立赋值。这里需要指出的是, 当前三项指标的权重及赋值规则是依据前期研究经验以及本研究中的目标甲藻和研究海域确定, 并非“普适最优权重”, 在针对特殊海域和具体种类的风险评估中可根据历史记录和新的监测数据进行调整。之后, 根据目标甲藻赤潮发生风险值(R)的计算公式[公式(1)]计算目标甲藻在各个监测站点的赤潮发生风险值(Pan et al, 2025)。
在此基础上, 确定目标甲藻在各监测站点和评估单元的赤潮发生风险等级, 绘制中国海域赤潮风险地图。
Rj = CAIscore×a + HABRIscore×b+VCMRIscore×c
式中: Rj——目标甲藻在j监测站点的赤潮发生风险值; CAIscore——孢囊丰度指标赋分(60), a为该指标的独立权重系数; HABRIscore——赤潮事件指标赋分(30), b为该指标的独立权重系数; VCMRIscore——营养细胞分布指标赋分(10), c为该指标的独立权重系数。
各监测站点的不同目标甲藻的赤潮发生风险等级根据以下规则确定: ①I-高风险: 80≤风险值≤100, 用红色标注; ②II-中高风险: 60≤风险值<80, 用橙色标注; ③III-中风险: 40≤风险值<60, 用黄色标注; ④IV-长期风险: 20≤风险值<40, 用紫色标注; ⑤V-低风险: 0≤风险值<20, 用绿色标注(Pan et al, 2025)。
应用Origin 2024软件, 绘制目标甲藻在所有监测位点和四大海域的风险值柱状图; 应用IBM SPSS Statistics 27软件进行皮尔逊相关性分析和单因素方差分析, 并应用Python绘制相关性热图和节点图; 应用Surfer软件绘制目标甲藻风险值海图。
本研究中, 将中国近海基于地理环境、生态特征及研究管理需求划分为渤海(37个站位)、黄海(87个站位)、东海(80个站位)和南海(63个站位) 4个大的评估单元。从地理角度看, 四大海域除东-黄海外都相对独立, 受地形、洋流及陆源输入影响显著不同; 渤海是近封闭内海, 黄海海底平坦且受季风影响明显, 东海显著受到黑潮暖流与长江冲淡水的双重作用, 南海则具有热带海洋特征(Jiao et al, 2018; 林天维等, 2020)。水文条件(水温、盐度、海流等)和生态系统的差异直接影响甲藻孢囊的分布与藻华形成机制。从研究尺度考虑, 大区域评估需通过分区降低数据复杂度, 便于孢囊多样性与丰度的空间分析。管理层面, 各海域面临不同开发压力(如渤海的环渤海经济带污染、南海的珊瑚礁保护), 分区评估可为区域化防控政策提供科学依据。此外, 四大海域在监测数据获取、管理单元划分上已经形成较成熟基础, 符合赤潮发生风险评估的系统性与可操作性要求。
基于所获得的赤潮甲藻名录、种类的毒性潜力、生态危害性、区域分布特征及数据可获取性, 本研究确定了26种目标甲藻进行评估(表1)。所选物种涵盖9种亚历山大藻属藻种(麻痹性贝毒和鱼毒素产生者或潜在产生者)、米氏凯伦藻(Karenia mikimotoi)等鱼毒素产生者及多环马格里夫藻(Margalefidinium polykrikoides)等未鉴定(新型)毒素产生者, 覆盖四大海域典型种, 体现季节性与空间异质性。所选物种均具备高通量测序适用性, 且与历史藻华事件及中国新兴风险物种如杀鱼费氏藻(Pfiesteria piscicida)高度关联。有些种类虽然尚未在中国单独报道形成有害赤潮, 但因为同属其他种类被证明产生化学性质不明的毒素(如东海斯氏藻和尖顶斯氏藻, Tang et al, 2012a)也列为目标甲藻。通过多指标覆盖(孢囊丰度、藻华事件和营养细胞分布)及跨区域可比性设计, 确保评估体系的科学性与实践指导意义。
上述26种目标甲藻在中国四大海域发生赤潮的风险值根据公式(1)计算得到(Pan et al, 2025), 风险值分布在2~100之间。值得注意的是, 尖顶斯氏藻[Scrippsiella acuminata, 即此前文献中常见的S. trochoidea(锥状斯氏藻)(Kretschmann et al, 2015)]平均风险值达89±19 (平均值±标准差), 显著高于其他物种(P<0.05)。而同属的东海斯氏藻(Scrippsiella donghaiensis)平均风险值为72±21。具刺膝沟藻(Gonyaulax spinifera; 56±23)和链状亚历山大藻(50±20)及另7种甲藻(垂裂莱万藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、多纹膝沟藻、米氏凯伦藻、红色赤潮藻、多环马格里夫藻)在中国海域的平均风险值等于或超过40。有8种甲藻平均风险值在20~40之间(微小亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻、太平洋亚历山大藻、深沟假旋沟藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、多边舌甲藻); 其余7种甲藻平均风险值小于20 (异常亚历山大藻、奥氏亚历山大藻、李氏亚历山大藻、腹孔环胺藻、三角隐甲藻、杀鱼费氏藻、安德森亚历山大藻)。
基于单因素方差分析(ANOVA)及Tukey HSD post-hoc检验, 系统分析26种甲藻在渤海(Bohai Sea, BS)、黄海(Yellow Sea, YS)、东海(East China Sea, ES)、南海(South China Sea, SS)的风险值差异。结果显示, 26种甲藻在四大海域平均风险值(±标准差)为渤海(41±22)>黄海(36±23)>东海(34±23)>南海(31±20)。目标甲藻的赤潮风险值在我国渤海、黄海、东海、南海四大海域呈现显著的差异化分布格局(P≤0.05), 可依据其空间分布特征划分为以下类型(图2b): (1)三海域趋同型: 尖顶斯氏藻风险值在渤海、东海、黄海无显著差异, 但三者均显著高于南海; 微小亚历山大藻风险值在渤海、黄海和南海无显著性差异, 且均显著高于东海; 安德森亚历山大藻在黄海、东海和南海的风险值显著高于渤海。(2)海域分组差异型: 具刺膝沟藻风险值呈现渤海和黄海显著高于东海和南海的特征, 太平洋亚历山大藻在东海和南海风险值显著高于渤海和黄海, 杀鱼费氏藻风险值表现为渤海和南海高于黄海和东海, 而垂列莱万藻在黄海和东海的风险值高于渤海和南海。(3)渤海优势型: 链状裸甲藻、奥氏亚历山大藻和腹孔环胺藻的风险值在渤海显著高于黄海、东海、南海, 且后三者间无显著差异; 相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、异常亚历山大藻的风险值表现为渤海>黄海>东海~南海; 链状亚历山大藻和三角隐甲藻风险值呈现渤海>黄海>东海>南海的梯度; 多边舌甲藻风险值在渤海显著高于其他三海域, 且黄海显著高于南海, 而黄海、东海、南海之间无显著差异; 而哈曼褐多沟藻风险值为渤海显著高于黄海和东海, 且渤海、黄海、东海均显著高于南海。(4)东海优势型: 东海原甲藻和东海斯氏藻风险值在东海显著最高, 且分别呈现南海>黄海>渤海和南海>渤海>黄海的梯度; 米氏凯伦藻表现为东海风险值显著高于黄海, 其余海域两两比较均无显著差异。(5)南海优势型: 深沟假旋沟藻风险值为南海显著高于东海, 且高于渤海和黄海。(6)海域无差异型: 剧毒卡尔藻、多纹膝沟藻、红色赤潮藻、多环马格里夫藻和李氏亚历山大藻等5种甲藻的风险值在四大海域间均无显著差异。
对26种甲藻在所有采样站点的风险值数据进行皮尔逊相关性分析的结果显示, 整体呈现弱相关特征, 平均相关系数仅为0.065 9, 且无极强相关(|r|>0.7, r是皮尔逊相关系数)的甲藻对, 表明多数甲藻间风险值变化相对独立(图3)。但是, 其中17种甲藻之间存在42个显著相关对(|r|>0.3), 占总组合数的12.9%, 其中正相关37对、负相关5对。三角隐甲藻与10种甲藻(相近亚历山大藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、具刺膝沟藻、异常亚历山大藻、腹孔环胺藻、多边舌甲藻、哈曼褐多沟藻、奥氏亚历山大藻、尖顶斯氏藻、微小亚历山大藻)呈正相关关系, 与深沟假旋沟藻呈负相关关系。拟膝沟亚历山大藻、相近亚历山大藻、具刺膝沟藻、多边舌甲藻、奥氏亚历山大藻、腹孔环胺藻和异常亚历山大藻分别与其余5种及以上甲藻呈正相关关系。而哈曼褐多沟藻、深沟假旋沟藻、尖顶斯氏藻、链状亚历山大藻、微小亚历山大藻、太平洋亚历山大藻和东海斯氏藻分别与1~4种甲藻呈正相关关系。5对显著负相关组合包括具刺膝沟藻分别与东海原甲藻和深沟假旋沟藻、深沟假旋沟藻与三角隐甲藻以及安德森亚历山大藻与奥氏亚历山大藻和腹孔环胺藻呈负相关关系。
根据计算得到的风险值对风险等级的划分结果表明(图4图5), 一共有11种目标甲藻在部分监测站点处于I-高风险等级(80≤风险值≤100; 藻名后括号中数字为高风险站位的比例): 尖顶斯氏藻(78.3%)、东海斯氏藻(51.7%)、具刺膝沟藻(21.0%)、链状亚历山大藻(12.4%)、垂裂莱万藻(5.2%)、深沟假旋沟藻(2.6%)、太平洋亚历山大藻(0.7%)、微小亚历山大藻(0.7%)、多纹膝沟藻(0.4%)、红色赤潮藻(0.4%)和东海原甲藻(0.4%)。共有21种甲藻被评估为具有II-中高风险等级(60≤风险值<80), 包括上述11种具有I-高风险等级的甲藻在其他站位评估为中-高风险外, 其余10种为哈曼褐多沟藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、相近亚历山大藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、多边舌甲藻、异常亚历山大藻、奥氏亚历山大藻、米氏凯伦藻和三角隐甲藻。10种甲藻在超过50%的站位评估为III-中风险, 即多环马格里夫藻、米氏凯伦藻、红色赤潮藻、多纹膝沟藻、链状裸甲藻、剧毒卡尔藻、垂裂莱万藻、具刺膝沟藻、微小亚历山大藻、和东海原甲藻。深沟假旋沟藻和太平洋亚历山大藻在超过半数的站位中为IV-长期风险。11种甲藻在超过半数的站位中为V-低风险, 包括安德森亚历山大藻、李氏亚历山大藻、奥氏亚历山大藻、杀鱼费氏藻、异常亚历山大藻、多边舌甲藻、腹孔环胺藻、三角隐甲藻、拟膝沟亚历山大藻、相近亚历山大藻和哈曼褐多沟藻。可见, 同一种类在不同站点或海域可能具有不同的赤潮发生风险。
综合各监测站点的风险等级结果, 得到4个评估单元中的高风险和中高风险甲藻名录(表2)。四大海域高风险和中高风险甲藻存在明显的共性与海域特异性, 如尖顶斯氏藻、东海斯氏藻和链状亚历山大藻为四大海域共有的高风险甲藻, 且均被列为中高风险; 高风险甲藻种类在东海、南海各有6种, 渤海、黄海各5种, 其中红色赤潮藻仅在渤海为高风险, 多纹膝沟藻和太平洋亚历山大藻仅在南海为高风险; 中高风险甲藻在渤海、黄海、东海和南海分别有18、16、12和13种。
从本研究中得到的中国海域各目标甲藻赤潮发生风险值之间的差异反映了多种因素的综合影响, 既包括了甲藻自身的生物学特性, 如生长速度、繁殖能力、对环境的适应能力、孢囊形成和在沉积物中保存的能力等, 也反映它们所处的海洋环境条件, 如水温、盐度、光照和营养盐浓度等(于仁成等, 2017; Pan et al, 2025)。对赤潮发生风险值的解析, 有助于深入厘清不同甲藻在海洋生态系统中的生态位分化特征及其潜在生态影响。在甲藻风险值的相关性层面, 多组甲藻间呈现显著的关联性特征。例如, 多个亚历山大藻物种的风险值呈显著正相关, 表明此类甲藻可能具有相似的环境适配性或生态位, 当水温、盐度、营养盐浓度等环境条件适宜时, 它们的藻华发生风险可能同步升高。与之相对, 风险值呈显著负相关的甲藻类群, 则可能存在生态位竞争关系或最适生存环境存在较大差异甚至完全相反。需要指出的是, 相关性分析结果虽无法直接指示因果关系, 但上述显著性相关关系为探索和阐释甲藻群落的组成、结构和演替规律提供了线索, 为通过水体监测不同种类的营养细胞种群动态变化关系以明确种类之间的确定性相关关系提供假说基础。此外, 渤海、黄海、东海、南海四大海区的环境特征存在显著分异, 而这种区域环境异质性, 会直接影响同一种类甲藻的生长繁殖与地理分布格局, 进而造成各海域赤潮发生风险的差异, 循此开展更深入的研究可为制定重要藻华种类的区域化监测和防控策略提供重要参考。同时, 需要强调的是, 本研究得到的评估结果反映的是赤潮发生的可能性或风险水平, 而非直接预测赤潮必然发生。
从典型高风险物种来看, 不同甲藻的内禀生物学特性差异会显著影响其赤潮暴发的潜力或风险。本研究中, 尖顶斯氏藻与东海斯氏藻的风险值显著高于其他甲藻物种, 这一现象与该属甲藻独特的生活史和孢囊生物学特性密切相关。实验室纯培养与野外沉积物孢囊检测的双重证据表明, 该属甲藻具备极强的孢囊形成能力, 其孢囊不仅在近海沉积物中丰度高, 且地理分布范围最为广泛(Wang et al, 2007; Yue et al, 2022; Deng et al, 2025), 沉积物孢囊调查数据亦证实尖顶斯氏藻孢囊是我国近海沉积相中分布最普遍的甲藻孢囊类型(王朝晖, 2007)。与其他甲藻的纤维质壁孢囊相比, 尖顶斯氏藻的钙质孢囊壁具有更优异的环境抗性与长期存活能力, 可在沉积物中稳定存续(蓝东兆等, 2014); 从生活史策略角度分析, 其强制休眠期仅为15~60 d (Binder et al, 1990; 王朝晖等, 2010), 且在环境条件适宜时孢囊萌发效率可达50%~90%(齐雨藻等, 1997; Wang et al, 2007), 孢囊与营养细胞间的高转化率, 能持续向水体补充营养细胞, 为赤潮暴发奠定种群基础(丁德文等, 2005), 这也是其成为四大海域共有高风险物种的关键原因。
本研究中各类甲藻的风险区域分布与实际赤潮发生规律基本契合, 印证了评估体系的有效性。其中尖顶斯氏藻作为四大海域共有的高风险物种, 1998~2009年我国累计记录30次赤潮、累计面积超5 466 km2, 2010~2018年南海仅面积大于0.1 km2的赤潮就达13次, 其78.3%的高风险站位占比评估结果与该藻的赤潮频发态势高度一致(梁玉波, 2012; 陈楠生等, 2021); 链状亚历山大藻在渤海部分站点风险值达100(I-高风险), 与该藻4~10月在辽宁、天津等沿海地区的赤潮暴发特征及部分超100 km2的赤潮规模分布相契合(丁翔翔, 2023); 东海原甲藻在东海的风险值显著高于其他海域, 匹配该藻自20世纪90年代以来每年4~5月在东海的频繁暴发规律, 其累计超260次赤潮、单次可达上千平方公里的发生情况, 与东海81个监测站点中ES121、ES32等高风险和中高风险站位的分布高度对应(自然资源部网站, 2011-2024; 刘宇洋, 2020)。具刺膝沟藻呈现渤海、黄海高风险, 东海中高风险, 南海中风险的区域差异, 既与该藻北方海域赤潮频发、南方海域偶发的历史记录相符, 也与其分布与溶解态无机氮等营养盐的区域差异相呼应(罗芳, 2021; 陈雯雯, 2022); 链状裸甲藻在我国四大海域均为中高风险的评估结果, 与该藻在四大海域的赤潮记录及1998年珠江口、2017年福建沿海赤潮造成的重大经济损失情况相印证, 进一步体现了风险值与实际灾害发生的关联性。红色赤潮藻与多纹膝沟藻作为我国近海常见赤潮藻种, 二者形成的双相型赤潮危害显著, 其中红色赤潮藻在1998~2017年间共记录31次赤潮, 2016年广东海域藻华更是持续278 d、面积达300 km2, 其分泌的溶血性毒素可致贝类、鱼类死亡(吴玉霖等, 2001; Chen et al, 2019; 方婷, 2021; 刘奎艳等, 2023), 多纹膝沟藻则与红色赤潮藻共同引发2021年山东荣成附近海域双相赤潮, 诱发海带溃烂灾害并造成20亿元经济损失(李晓东等, 2023), 而本研究中红色赤潮藻在渤海部分站点风险值达88 (高风险)、多纹膝沟藻在南海出现100的最高风险值, 二者的风险分布均与历史赤潮高发区重叠(吕颂辉等, 1992)。剧毒卡尔藻被列为渤海、黄海和东海的中高风险物种, 与2000年以来其在我国的赤潮报道呈上升趋势的实际情况完全吻合, 该藻2005年浙江洞头海域、2007年浙江象山湾虾池及2011年山东桑沟湾、浙江南麂岛等地的高密度赤潮, 曾严重冲击当地贝类养殖业(徐娜等, 2012; Dai et al, 2014); 深沟假旋沟藻在南海被列为高风险甲藻, 与该藻在南海的赤潮频发特征高度一致, 其在南海曾引发单次面积最高达300 km2、最大细胞密度达4.13×107 cells/L的赤潮, 并曾造成约316万元经济损失(Ke et al, 2012; Guo et al, 2014), 印证了风险等级对该物种赤潮暴发潜力的反映。这种高风险区域对应高频赤潮的特征, 表明基于孢囊的风险评估能够有效捕捉甲藻赤潮的潜在暴发区域与强度, 为针对性防控提供了依据。
尽管多数甲藻的风险评估结果与历史赤潮记录一致, 但仍有部分频发赤潮物种在特定海域的风险值未达到高风险或中高风险水平, 其核心成因与甲藻生活史特征、孢囊的细胞学特性、监测覆盖局限性及赤潮暴发机制差异密切相关。首先, 孢囊保存特性与产率限制导致部分物种孢囊丰度检测值偏低, 进而低估实际风险。例如, 米氏凯伦藻和多环马格里夫藻孢囊均为薄壁孢囊(pellicle cyst), 这类孢囊细胞壁薄、在沉积物中保存时间短, 易受环境因素降解, 导致检测丰度无法反映真实种群潜力(Tang et al, 2012b; Bravo et al, 2014; 唐赢中等, 2016)。米氏凯伦藻虽在东海、南海频繁引发大规模赤潮, 2012年福建沿海赤潮经济损失高达20.1亿元, 但中国海域沉积物中其孢囊最高丰度每32 g湿重沉积物仅33个, 且孢囊产率极低(Liu et al, 2021), 导致其风险值超过半数处于中风险水平。其次, 监测覆盖的时空局限性未能捕捉 “种子银行”(seed bank)热点区域。部分甲藻的孢囊分布具有显著的局部聚集性, 特定水力和物理条件的海域可形成孢囊富集的“种子银行”, 如链状亚历山大藻孢囊在缅因湾的集中分布(Anderson et al, 2014)。本研究的267个监测站点虽覆盖四大海域, 但可能未完全覆盖米氏凯伦藻、多环马格里夫藻等物种的孢囊富集区, 导致其风险值被低估。多环马格里夫藻作为全球危害严重的赤潮物种, 在我国天津、浙江、山东等海域多次暴发赤潮, 但本研究中仅一个站点检测到其孢囊信号, 风险等级为中风险, 这既与该种的孢囊壁较薄不宜保存、孢囊产率低有关, 也可能与监测未覆盖其孢囊形成关键期或富集区域密切相关(Hu et al, 2022; San Diego-McGlone et al, 2024)。最后, 赤潮暴发机制差异导致部分物种不依赖高孢囊丰度即可暴发。米氏凯伦藻等物种的赤潮发生可能更依赖在适宜环境条件(如水温、营养盐)驱动的种群快速增殖, 而非大量孢囊萌发提供起始种群(Li et al, 2019)。如根据计算, 假设孢囊密度为每14 g湿重沉积物含一个孢囊、2 m深水柱、比生长率0.4 d-1 (野外报道最高值0.8 d-1)条件下, 米氏凯伦藻达到赤潮密度107 cells/L只需要40 d (Liu et al, 2020b)。综上, 这类物种的风险值偏低并不一定意味着赤潮发生风险低, 而是评估方法依赖的孢囊指标特别是其野外萌发动力学研究在现阶段存在知识局限性。未来需通过加密监测频次、拓展监测范围(重点覆盖潜在“种子银行”区域)、加强不同种类特殊的营养生长动力学研究和野外监测等方式, 完善风险评估体系, 提升对这类特殊暴发机制甲藻的风险预判能力。
本研究基于中国四大海域267个站位2014~2018年沉积物中甲藻孢囊多样性与丰度数据, 整合历史藻华事件记录及水体营养细胞分布文献, 运用前期构建并经局域验证的评估方法, 系统绘制了26种目标甲藻的中国海域赤潮发生风险地图。本研究为我国近海区域化赤潮防控提供了基础性的科学依据和进一步深入研究的“垫脚石”, 研究成果不仅对我国海洋生态安全保障具有重要实践意义, 也为全球其他海域同类研究提供了可资借鉴的方法论参考。本研究构建的基于孢囊的赤潮风险评估体系虽综合关键因素、对重要赤潮种类风险预测有较好应用前景, 但评估模型的指标权重、部分种类的评估应用仍存待解问题。理论上, 甲藻休眠孢囊与藻华暴发的关联机制受多因素调控, 相关孢囊检测、萌发及生长动力学研究匮乏, 核心机制认知有限, 同时评估体系依赖静态数据, 无法充分反映群落动态演替和环境因子实时波动的影响。实践中, 沉积物孢囊的采样鉴定等流程烦琐易致数据偏差, 高通量测序的种类绝对定量无成熟统一方法, 历史记录和营养细胞数据的完整性、准确性不足, 且评估结果向业务部门监测管理的落地, 还需兼顾操作可行性与成本效益平衡。针对上述问题, 提出以下优化建议: 第一, 加快研发并实践基于高通量测序数据的沉积物孢囊绝对定量技术, 突破当前半定量分析的局限性, 提升数据精度; 第二, 聚焦主要有害赤潮种类, 开展孢囊萌发原位监测与初始生长动力学研究, 明确其萌发与种群增长乃至赤潮形成的数量(值)关系; 第三, 强化甲藻孢囊生态学基础研究, 解析孢囊形成、萌发、存活的分子机制及环境调控网络, 构建更精准的孢囊-藻华关联预测模型; 第四, 优化采样方法与实验室分析技术, 统一数据标准以提升跨区域、跨研究的可比性, 同时整合遥感监测、现场实时传感等多源数据, 实现甲藻群落与环境因子的动态耦合监测; 第五, 深化与业务、管理部门的协同合作, 结合赤潮防控实际需求优化评估体系指标权重, 在风险评估结果与预警预测和应急处置合作的过程中不断优化评估模型, 从而提升预警预测的准确性和可操作性。

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2026年第57卷第3期
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doi: 10.11693/hyhz20260100001
  • 接收时间:2026-01-05
  • 首发时间:2026-08-06
  • 出版时间:2026-05-30
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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-05
  • 修回日期:2026-02-12
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    1中国科学院海洋研究所海洋生态与环境科学实验室 山东青岛 266000
    2青岛海洋科技中心海洋生态与环境科学功能实验室 山东青岛 266237
    3中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心 山东青岛 266071
    4哈尔滨工程大学青岛创新发展基地 山东青岛 266000
    5广东海洋大学水产学院 广东湛江 524088

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邓蕴彦, 硕士生导师, 研究员, E-mail:
唐赢中, 博士生导师, 研究员, E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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