Article(id=1321945212641989425, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263187385517883426, issueId=1321944922048016891, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14062/j.issn.0454-5648.20250177, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1741968000000, receivedDateStr=2025-03-15, revisedDate=1744128000000, revisedDateStr=2025-04-09, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793105899248, onlineDateStr=2026-10-27, pubDate=1771516800000, pubDateStr=2026-02-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793105899248, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-27, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793105899248, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793105899248, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1321944922048016891, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263187385517883426, year='2026', volume='54', issue='2', pageStart='351', pageEnd='820', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1769097600000', pubDateStr='2026-01-23', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793105829965, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793105829965, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=653, endPage=665, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1321945213908669234, articleId=1321945212641989425, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1263187385517883426, language=EN, title=Prediction of Damage Degree of Underground Concrete Under Load-Ion-Temperature Interaction, columnId=1321944928226226685, journalTitle=Journal of the Chinese Ceramic Society, columnName=Concrete Durability: Mechanisms Characterization and Prediction Methods—Research Articles, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Introduction

The underground concrete structure is in a complex and changeable service environment for a long time, and it is often affected by the combined effects of load, corrosive ions and temperature changes. There is a significant nonlinear coupling relationship among these three factors, which makes the concrete show a completely different damage evolution law from the single effect during the service process. Especially in the underground environment, chloride ions and sulfate ions will accelerate pore dissolution and micro-crack propagation, and temperature changes will vary the hydration rate and ion migration ability. Under external loads, the generation and propagation of microcracks further promote ion penetration and chemical erosion, resulting in a rapid degradation of material properties. Conventional durability tests are often difficult to quantitatively describe the damage law under the combined action of multiple factors, and it is difficult to accurately predict the service life of underground concrete. It is thus of great significance to reveal the deterioration mechanism and service life evaluation of underground concrete via constructing a method that can comprehensively reflect the damage degree of concrete under multi-factor coupling and realize a life prediction.

Methods

In the experiment, ordinary Portland cement was used to prepare concrete specimens, and the mix ratio of each group was kept consistent. The test was carried out under the accelerated conditions of simulated underground environment, and the service environment of different load, ion and temperature combinations was set up to investigate the damage evolution law under the coupling of three factors. During the test, the five indexes of concrete failure load, ultrasonic wave velocity, dynamic elastic modulus, rebound value and quality change were tested regularly. These indexes could reflect the mechanical properties, internal compactness, surface hardness and mass loss of concrete, respectively, as the important indexes for comprehensive evaluation of damage degree. In addition, the evaluation system of concrete damage degree was also established based on the entropy weight method, and the weight was automatically assigned by the dispersion of index changes, so that the damage degree evaluation could be more objective and comparable.

For the life prediction, four models were selected for comparison, including Even Grey Model (EGM), Even Discrete Grey Model (EDGM), Optimized Discrete Grey Model (ODGM) and Discrete Grey Model (DGM), based on the grey system theory. The grey model has a good prediction performance under the condition of small sample and weak information, and is suitable for durability research with limited test period and small data volume. The accuracy of the model could be improved by cumulative generation and parameter analysis, and the prediction performance of each model was evaluated by various error indexes, and the optimal model was selected for the life prediction.

Results and discussion

The damage degree of concrete under four different conditions firstly increases and then decreases. The failure load, ultrasonic wave velocity, dynamic elastic modulus, rebound value and mass change trend under the same conditions are similar. However, the turning points of damage attenuation under the four conditions are not consistent due to the difference of hydration reaction and internal pore structure. At 50 ℃, the faster early reaction rate can result in the faster pore filling, thus improving the compactness.

Based on the entropy weight method, the weight coefficient of each index to the damage degree of concrete is obtained. The influencing degree from large to small is failure load, dynamic elastic modulus, rebound value, ultrasonic wave velocity, and quality change. Also, the accuracy ranking of the four prediction models is obtained based on the comprehensive score ranking method. The prediction accuracy from high to low is ODGM > EGM = EDGM > DGM.

Conclusions

Under the combined action of load-ion-temperature, the failure load, ultrasonic wave velocity, dynamic elastic modulus, rebound value and mass of concrete all firstly increased and then decreased, but the turning points of damage under various environmental effects were inconsistent. In addition, the hydration products under chloride erosion environment were mainly filled with micropores (i.e., ≤ 0.1 mm3) and small pores (i.e., 0.1-1.0 mm3), and the pores of concrete at 50 ℃ in the early stage were more dense than those at 20 ℃. The damage degree of each index was quantified by the entropy method, i.e., failure load (i.e., 80%-90%), dynamic elastic modulus (i.e., 5%-8%), rebound value (i.e., 1%-6%), ultrasonic wave velocity (i.e., 1%-4%), and mass change (i.e., < 1%). The ODGM model had the highest accuracy in predicting the service life of concrete under the combined action of load-ion-temperature. The service life of concrete was 82 months, 29 months, 24 months and 20 months under the four environments (i.e., 0.2Fmax, 3%NaCl, 20 ℃ and 0.2Fmax, 3%NaCl, 50 ℃ and 0.2Fmax, 5%Na2SO4, 20 ℃ and 0.2Fmax, 5%Na2SO4, 50 ℃), respectively.

, authors=Bin YANG1, Yue LI1, Hui LIN1, Wei LI2, Tianlong QIAO2, authorsList=Bin YANG, Yue LI, Hui LIN, Wei LI, Tianlong QIAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Yue LI, authorNote=

YANG Bin (1997-), male, Doctoral candidate. E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=
LI Yue (1972-), male, Ph.D., Professor. E-mail:
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针对地下混凝土服役条件复杂、使用寿命难以准确预测的现状,本研究设计了荷载-离子-温度共同作用下的加速试验,揭示了三因素共同作用下混凝土的损伤劣化规律,通过熵权法构建了混凝土损伤度的评价体系,基于信息熵理论客观量化破坏荷载、超声波波速、动弹性模量、回弹值、质量变化等指标对损伤度的贡献,结合4种不同的灰色一阶单变量理论模型通过累加生成与参数优化实现了小样本数据下混凝土寿命的高精度预测。结果表明:荷载-离子-温度共同作用下混凝土损伤指标呈“早期增长、且适度升温后早期性能更优、但升温后劣化提前”的规律;对损伤程度影响从大至小的指标分别是破坏荷载(80%~90%)、动弹性模量(5%~8%)、回弹值(1%~6%)、超声波波速(1%~4%)、质量变化(<1%);基于精度最高的优化离散灰色模型预测了荷载-离子-温度共同作用下混凝土的服役寿命。

, authors=杨斌1, 李悦1, 林辉1, 李伟2, 乔天龙2, authorsList=杨斌, 李悦, 林辉, 李伟, 乔天龙, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=李悦, authorNote=

杨斌(1997—),男,博士研究生。

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李悦(1972—),男,博士,教授。
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荷载-离子-温度共同作用下地下混凝土损伤程度分析与预测
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杨斌 1 , 李悦 1 , 林辉 1 , 李伟 2 , 乔天龙 2
硅酸盐学报 | 混凝土耐久性机理表征与预测方法专题—研究论文 2026,54(2): 653-665
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硅酸盐学报 |混凝土耐久性机理表征与预测方法专题—研究论文 2026 , 54 (2) : 653 -665
荷载-离子-温度共同作用下地下混凝土损伤程度分析与预测
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杨斌1 , 李悦1 , 林辉1, 李伟2, 乔天龙2
作者信息
  • 1.北京工业大学建筑工程学院,桥梁工程安全与韧性全国重点实验室,北京 100124
  • 2.北京建工新型建材有限责任公司,北京,100166
通讯作者:
李悦(1972—),男,博士,教授。
作者简介:

杨斌(1997—),男,博士研究生。

Prediction of Damage Degree of Underground Concrete Under Load-Ion-Temperature Interaction
Bin YANG1 , Yue LI1 , Hui LIN1, Wei LI2, Tianlong QIAO2
Affiliations
  • 1.Beijing University of Technology, National Key Laboratory of Bridge Engineering Safety and Resilience, Beijing 100124, China
  • 2.Beijing Construction New Building Materials Co., Ltd., Beijing 100166, China
  • Corresponding Author:
    LI Yue (1972-), male, Ph.D., Professor. E-mail:

    YANG Bin (1997-), male, Doctoral candidate. E-mail:

出版时间: 2026-02-20 doi: 10.14062/j.issn.0454-5648.20250177
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针对地下混凝土服役条件复杂、使用寿命难以准确预测的现状,本研究设计了荷载-离子-温度共同作用下的加速试验,揭示了三因素共同作用下混凝土的损伤劣化规律,通过熵权法构建了混凝土损伤度的评价体系,基于信息熵理论客观量化破坏荷载、超声波波速、动弹性模量、回弹值、质量变化等指标对损伤度的贡献,结合4种不同的灰色一阶单变量理论模型通过累加生成与参数优化实现了小样本数据下混凝土寿命的高精度预测。结果表明:荷载-离子-温度共同作用下混凝土损伤指标呈“早期增长、且适度升温后早期性能更优、但升温后劣化提前”的规律;对损伤程度影响从大至小的指标分别是破坏荷载(80%~90%)、动弹性模量(5%~8%)、回弹值(1%~6%)、超声波波速(1%~4%)、质量变化(<1%);基于精度最高的优化离散灰色模型预测了荷载-离子-温度共同作用下混凝土的服役寿命。

混凝土  /  损伤程度  /  多因素共同作用  /  寿命预测
Introduction

The underground concrete structure is in a complex and changeable service environment for a long time, and it is often affected by the combined effects of load, corrosive ions and temperature changes. There is a significant nonlinear coupling relationship among these three factors, which makes the concrete show a completely different damage evolution law from the single effect during the service process. Especially in the underground environment, chloride ions and sulfate ions will accelerate pore dissolution and micro-crack propagation, and temperature changes will vary the hydration rate and ion migration ability. Under external loads, the generation and propagation of microcracks further promote ion penetration and chemical erosion, resulting in a rapid degradation of material properties. Conventional durability tests are often difficult to quantitatively describe the damage law under the combined action of multiple factors, and it is difficult to accurately predict the service life of underground concrete. It is thus of great significance to reveal the deterioration mechanism and service life evaluation of underground concrete via constructing a method that can comprehensively reflect the damage degree of concrete under multi-factor coupling and realize a life prediction.

Methods

In the experiment, ordinary Portland cement was used to prepare concrete specimens, and the mix ratio of each group was kept consistent. The test was carried out under the accelerated conditions of simulated underground environment, and the service environment of different load, ion and temperature combinations was set up to investigate the damage evolution law under the coupling of three factors. During the test, the five indexes of concrete failure load, ultrasonic wave velocity, dynamic elastic modulus, rebound value and quality change were tested regularly. These indexes could reflect the mechanical properties, internal compactness, surface hardness and mass loss of concrete, respectively, as the important indexes for comprehensive evaluation of damage degree. In addition, the evaluation system of concrete damage degree was also established based on the entropy weight method, and the weight was automatically assigned by the dispersion of index changes, so that the damage degree evaluation could be more objective and comparable.

For the life prediction, four models were selected for comparison, including Even Grey Model (EGM), Even Discrete Grey Model (EDGM), Optimized Discrete Grey Model (ODGM) and Discrete Grey Model (DGM), based on the grey system theory. The grey model has a good prediction performance under the condition of small sample and weak information, and is suitable for durability research with limited test period and small data volume. The accuracy of the model could be improved by cumulative generation and parameter analysis, and the prediction performance of each model was evaluated by various error indexes, and the optimal model was selected for the life prediction.

Results and discussion

The damage degree of concrete under four different conditions firstly increases and then decreases. The failure load, ultrasonic wave velocity, dynamic elastic modulus, rebound value and mass change trend under the same conditions are similar. However, the turning points of damage attenuation under the four conditions are not consistent due to the difference of hydration reaction and internal pore structure. At 50 ℃, the faster early reaction rate can result in the faster pore filling, thus improving the compactness.

Based on the entropy weight method, the weight coefficient of each index to the damage degree of concrete is obtained. The influencing degree from large to small is failure load, dynamic elastic modulus, rebound value, ultrasonic wave velocity, and quality change. Also, the accuracy ranking of the four prediction models is obtained based on the comprehensive score ranking method. The prediction accuracy from high to low is ODGM > EGM = EDGM > DGM.

Conclusions

Under the combined action of load-ion-temperature, the failure load, ultrasonic wave velocity, dynamic elastic modulus, rebound value and mass of concrete all firstly increased and then decreased, but the turning points of damage under various environmental effects were inconsistent. In addition, the hydration products under chloride erosion environment were mainly filled with micropores (i.e., ≤ 0.1 mm3) and small pores (i.e., 0.1-1.0 mm3), and the pores of concrete at 50 ℃ in the early stage were more dense than those at 20 ℃. The damage degree of each index was quantified by the entropy method, i.e., failure load (i.e., 80%-90%), dynamic elastic modulus (i.e., 5%-8%), rebound value (i.e., 1%-6%), ultrasonic wave velocity (i.e., 1%-4%), and mass change (i.e., < 1%). The ODGM model had the highest accuracy in predicting the service life of concrete under the combined action of load-ion-temperature. The service life of concrete was 82 months, 29 months, 24 months and 20 months under the four environments (i.e., 0.2Fmax, 3%NaCl, 20 ℃ and 0.2Fmax, 3%NaCl, 50 ℃ and 0.2Fmax, 5%Na2SO4, 20 ℃ and 0.2Fmax, 5%Na2SO4, 50 ℃), respectively.

concrete  /  damage degree  /  multi-factor coupling  /  life prediction
杨斌, 李悦, 林辉, 李伟, 乔天龙. 荷载-离子-温度共同作用下地下混凝土损伤程度分析与预测. 硅酸盐学报, 2026 , 54 (2) : 653 -665 . DOI: 10.14062/j.issn.0454-5648.20250177
Bin YANG, Yue LI, Hui LIN, Wei LI, Tianlong QIAO. Prediction of Damage Degree of Underground Concrete Under Load-Ion-Temperature Interaction[J]. Journal of the Chinese Ceramic Society, 2026 , 54 (2) : 653 -665 . DOI: 10.14062/j.issn.0454-5648.20250177
  • 北京市自然科学基金项目(24JL003)
  • 国家自然科学基金-联合基金项目(U2368207)
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(52308229)
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doi: 10.14062/j.issn.0454-5648.20250177
  • 接收时间:2025-03-15
  • 首发时间:2026-10-27
  • 出版时间:2026-02-20
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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-15
  • 修回日期:2025-04-09
基金
北京市自然科学基金项目(24JL003)
国家自然科学基金-联合基金项目(U2368207)
国家自然科学基金项目(52308229)
作者信息
    1.北京工业大学建筑工程学院,桥梁工程安全与韧性全国重点实验室,北京 100124
    2.北京建工新型建材有限责任公司,北京,100166

通讯作者:

李悦(1972—),男,博士,教授。
参考文献
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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