Article(id=1311998585344979108, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, issueId=1311998530802250506, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2026014, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1769529600000, receivedDateStr=2026-01-28, revisedDate=1776096000000, revisedDateStr=2026-04-14, acceptedDate=1776182400000, acceptedDateStr=2026-04-15, onlineDate=1790734438501, onlineDateStr=2026-09-30, pubDate=1787846400000, pubDateStr=2026-08-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1790734438501, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-09-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1790734438501, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1790734438501, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1311998530802250506, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, year='2026', volume='32', issue='4', pageStart='771', pageEnd='998', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1787846400000', pubDateStr='2026-08-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1790734425497, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1790739498146, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1312019807097160415, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, issueId=1311998530802250506, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1312019807097160416, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, issueId=1311998530802250506, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=899, endPage=918, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1311998585625997478, articleId=1311998585344979108, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, language=EN, title=Reactivation mechanism and stability trend prediction of the Huangci No.2 landslide, Heifangtai, Gansu Province, China, columnId=1311998585542111397, journalTitle=Journal of Geomechanics, columnName=Geo-hazards & Engineering Geology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To investigate the disaster-causing mechanisms, dynamic evolution, and post-disaster stability trends associated with the reactivation of the Huangci No. 2 landslide in Heifangtai, Gansu Province, on December 10, 2025, field geological investigations and the transient electromagnetic (TEM) surveys were conducted to characterize the deep structure of the landslide.

Methods

The entire three-dimensional dynamic sliding process was back-analyzed using the Massflow numerical model, and the three-dimensional limit equilibrium method was employed to quantitatively evaluate the post-event deposit and the stability of the high and steep rear slope and to predict their potential kinematic responses.

Results

(1) The reactivation of the landslide resulted from the coupled effects of slope-toe excavation, long-term irrigation, and winter freezing conditions. The freezing-induced water-retention and pore-pressure buildup effect acted as the direct trigger: surface freezing blocked seepage pathways, causing pore-water pressure to accumulate at depth and triggering a bedding-parallel slide along the loess–mudstone contact. (2) The entire sliding process lasted 22 h 10 min, with a cumulative displacement of 310 m. The Massflow simulation reproduced four stages of the dynamic evolution: creep, accelerated sliding, deceleration and deposition, and stagnation and compaction. The intersection over union (IoU) of the simulated and observed deposition morphologies reached 85.85%. (3) Quantitative calculations indicate that the current deposit has a factor of safety greater than 1.15, suggesting a relatively stable state characterized by settlement and consolidation. However, under extreme saturation conditions, the potential failure volume of the high and steep rear slope could reach 40.9×104 m3, with a maximum sliding distance of approximately 640 m.

Conclusions

The reactivation of the landslide was controlled by freezing-induced water retention and pore-water pressure buildup, together with multiple external disturbances. Although the main landslide body has generally stabilized, the high and steep rear slope remains highly susceptible to secondary failure. A long-term dynamic monitoring system should therefore be established to mitigate the risk of high-elevation secondary hazards.

Significance

This study quantitatively demonstrates freezing-induced water retention and pore-water pressure buildup as a distinctive triggering mechanism for winter loess landslides, extending the conventional understanding of loess landslide initiation beyond single hydrodynamic factors such as rainfall and irrigation. The findings provide direct technical references and theoretical support for winter landslide prevention and mitigation, emergency monitoring deployment, and early identification of geological hazards in Heifangtai and other irrigated loess tablelands, thereby contributing to the protection of local communities and their property.

, authors=Xiaodong DOU1, 2, Yushan LI1, 2, Yateng MENG1, 2, Kai CONG1, 2, Yongjun ZHANG1, 2, Qiang JIA1, 2, authorsList=Xiaodong DOU, Yushan LI, Yateng MENG, Kai CONG, Yongjun ZHANG, Qiang JIA, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Yushan LI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=Copyright ©2026 Journal of Geomechanics. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1311998602726175006, articleId=1311998585344979108, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, language=CN, title=甘肃黑方台黄茨2号滑坡复活机制与稳定性趋势预测, columnId=1311998585722466471, journalTitle=地质力学学报, columnName=地质灾害与工程地质, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为探究2025年12月10日甘肃黑方台黄茨2号滑坡复活滑动的致灾机制、动力演化过程及灾后稳定性发展趋势,综合采用野外地质调查与瞬变电磁法解析滑坡深部结构,基于Massflow数值模拟进行三维动力学全过程反演,并运用三维极限平衡法对灾后堆积体与高陡后壁开展定量稳定性评价与运动学预测。得到以下结果:滑坡复活是坡脚开挖、长期灌溉与气象条件耦合的结果,冬季“冻结滞水促滑效应”为直接诱因,表层冻结封堵渗流通道致使深部孔隙水压力积聚,诱发黄土−泥岩顺层滑动;滑坡整体历时22时10分,累计滑移310 m,Massflow反演重现了“蠕滑–加速滑动–减速堆积–停滞压密”4个阶段演化过程,堆积形态交并比达85.85%;定量计算表明,当前堆积体安全系数大于1.15,处于沉降压密的基本稳定状态;但在极端饱和工况下,高陡后壁潜在滑塌方量可达40.9×104 m3,最大滑移距离约640 m。分析表明,滑坡的深层复活受控于冻结滞水及多重扰动机制,当前主体虽已趋于稳定,但极易发生高陡后壁次生失稳,必须建立长期动态监测体系以严防高位灾害。文章定量揭示了“冻结滞水促滑”这一冬季黄土滑坡的特殊诱发机制,突破了黄土滑坡仅依赖降雨、灌溉等单一水动力成因的传统认识;为黑方台及类似灌区黄土滑坡的冬季防灾减灾、应急监测部署和地质灾害早期识别提供了直接的技术参考与理论支撑,对保障当地人民群众生命财产安全具有重要的现实价值。

, authors=窦晓东1, 2, 李玉山1, 2, 孟亚腾1, 2, 丛凯1, 2, 张永军1, 2, 贾强1, 2, authorsList=窦晓东, 李玉山, 孟亚腾, 丛凯, 张永军, 贾强, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=李玉山, authorNote=

作者贡献声明

窦晓东、李玉山负责论文构思、研究方法设计和论文写作;孟亚腾、丛凯参与现场调查、数据整理、数值模拟与图件绘制;张永军、贾强参与资料收集、稳定性计算、论文修改与成果审核。所有作者均阅读并同意稿件的提交和发表。

Author Contributions

DOU Xiaodong and LI Yushan conceived the study, designed the research methodology, and drafted the manuscript; MENG Yateng and CONG Kai participated in field investigation, data processing, numerical simulation, and figure preparation; ZHANG Yongjun and JIA Qiang contributed to data collection, stability calculation, manuscript revision, and result checking. All authors have read and agreed to the submission and publication of the manuscript.

窦晓东(1984—),男,正高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治工作。Email:

, correspAuthorsNote=
李玉山(1978—),男,正高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治工作。Email:
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figs=[ArticleFig(id=1311998611571962198, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Geographic location of the Huangci landslide, figureFileSmall=fBFWhTp0EsA8Pd0vrMYoLA==, figureFileBig=HtZGpWJAJPPz1RDelp1Z/w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998611655848279, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=CN, label=图1, caption=黄茨滑坡地理位置图

a—滑坡群分布图;b—黄茨滑坡位置示意图

, figureFileSmall=fBFWhTp0EsA8Pd0vrMYoLA==, figureFileBig=HtZGpWJAJPPz1RDelp1Z/w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998611861369176, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Orthophoto of the Huangci No. 2 landslide, figureFileSmall=UFrbjan/99pn7lQY87oY6g==, figureFileBig=JSpuhnuffMx8B8dFQRzZKg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998611928478041, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=CN, label=图2, caption=黄茨2号滑坡正射影像图

Qhal+pl—第四系全新统冲洪积层;Qhdel—第四系全新统残坡积层;Qp2eol—第四系中更新统风积层;K—白垩系

, figureFileSmall=UFrbjan/99pn7lQY87oY6g==, figureFileBig=JSpuhnuffMx8B8dFQRzZKg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998611999781210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=Geological cross-section of the Huangci No. 2 landslide, figureFileSmall=ONKiy0T0pxG9czuC+XgC4A==, figureFileBig=77/lNle3rhTvdSJppXYNnw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998612079472987, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=CN, label=图3, caption=黄茨2号滑坡地质剖面图, figureFileSmall=ONKiy0T0pxG9czuC+XgC4A==, figureFileBig=77/lNle3rhTvdSJppXYNnw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998612159164764, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Pre-failure orthophoto of the landslide, figureFileSmall=sSSwiO4uLcVKm7/wc2zTWw==, figureFileBig=uLUaJrFe/GQK37D0oi+JRA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998612234662237, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=CN, label=图4, caption=滑坡正射影像图(灾前), figureFileSmall=sSSwiO4uLcVKm7/wc2zTWw==, figureFileBig=uLUaJrFe/GQK37D0oi+JRA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998612305965406, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=EN, label=Fig.5, caption=UAV aerial photograph of the landslide mass at 16:00 on December 10, figureFileSmall=JHq9GtbjGOtwI8pxR6N35w==, figureFileBig=pvpowKh1+PBoHzrconX+0w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998612368879967, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=CN, label=图5, caption=滑坡体2025年12月10日16时航拍图, figureFileSmall=JHq9GtbjGOtwI8pxR6N35w==, figureFileBig=pvpowKh1+PBoHzrconX+0w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998612423405920, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=EN, label=Fig.6, caption=Deformation and failure characteristics of the Huangci No. 2 landslide, figureFileSmall=mvGsCEtWC0+5l93C4UuYvg==, figureFileBig=tGoZTLOJ1T5dvznEvI1T8Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998612494709089, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=CN, label=图6, caption=黄茨2号滑坡变形破坏特征

(a) Sinkhole at the rear of the landslide; (b) Bulging cracks in the middle-to-upper part of the landslide mass; (c) Uplift in the middle-to-lower part of the landslide mass; (d) Road heave in the lower part of the landslide mass

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(a) Disruption of stress equilibrium in the slope caused by toe excavation; (b) Long-term groundwater infiltration along pre-existing slip surfaces and consequent softening of the rock and soil mass; (c) Rise in the groundwater level, with traction at the toe and pushing from the rear

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(a) Deformation on December 12, 2025; (b) Deformation on December 13, 2025; (c) Deformation on December 14, 2025; (d) Deformation on December 15, 2025

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Key physicomechanical parameters

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
平均密度$ \overline{\rho } $/(kg/m3)黏聚力c/Pa内摩擦角$ \varphi $/ (°)孔隙水压力系数$ \lambda $
14005000250.3
), ArticleFig(id=1311998616328302972, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

核心物理力学性质参数

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平均密度$ \overline{\rho } $/(kg/m3)黏聚力c/Pa内摩擦角$ \varphi $/ (°)孔隙水压力系数$ \lambda $
14005000250.3
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甘肃黑方台黄茨2号滑坡复活机制与稳定性趋势预测
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窦晓东 1, 2 , 李玉山 1, 2 , 孟亚腾 1, 2 , 丛凯 1, 2 , 张永军 1, 2 , 贾强 1, 2
地质力学学报 | 地质灾害与工程地质 2026,32(4): 899-918
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地质力学学报 |地质灾害与工程地质 2026 , 32 (4) : 899 -918
甘肃黑方台黄茨2号滑坡复活机制与稳定性趋势预测
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[Author(id=1311998603648921894, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=297455517@qq.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1311998603967689001, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, authorId=1311998603648921894, language=EN, stringName=Xiaodong DOU, firstName=Xiaodong, middleName=null, lastName=DOU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, address=1Observation and Research Station of Geological Disasters in Lanzhou, Ministry of Natural Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
2Gansu Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1311998604068352298, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385891987619962, articleId=1311998585344979108, authorId=1311998603648921894, language=CN, stringName=窦晓东, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, address=1兰州城市地质灾害野外科学观测研究站,甘肃 兰州 730000
2甘肃省地质环境监测院,甘肃 兰州 730000, bio={"content":"

窦晓东(1984—),男,正高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治工作。Email:

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窦晓东(1984—),男,正高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治工作。Email:

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窦晓东1, 2 , 李玉山1, 2 , 孟亚腾1, 2, 丛凯1, 2, 张永军1, 2, 贾强1, 2
作者信息
  • 1兰州城市地质灾害野外科学观测研究站,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 2甘肃省地质环境监测院,甘肃 兰州 730000
通讯作者:
李玉山(1978—),男,正高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治工作。Email:
作者简介:

作者贡献声明

窦晓东、李玉山负责论文构思、研究方法设计和论文写作;孟亚腾、丛凯参与现场调查、数据整理、数值模拟与图件绘制;张永军、贾强参与资料收集、稳定性计算、论文修改与成果审核。所有作者均阅读并同意稿件的提交和发表。

Author Contributions

DOU Xiaodong and LI Yushan conceived the study, designed the research methodology, and drafted the manuscript; MENG Yateng and CONG Kai participated in field investigation, data processing, numerical simulation, and figure preparation; ZHANG Yongjun and JIA Qiang contributed to data collection, stability calculation, manuscript revision, and result checking. All authors have read and agreed to the submission and publication of the manuscript.

窦晓东(1984—),男,正高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治工作。Email:

Reactivation mechanism and stability trend prediction of the Huangci No.2 landslide, Heifangtai, Gansu Province, China
Xiaodong DOU1, 2 , Yushan LI1, 2 , Yateng MENG1, 2, Kai CONG1, 2, Yongjun ZHANG1, 2, Qiang JIA1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1Observation and Research Station of Geological Disasters in Lanzhou, Ministry of Natural Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
  • 2Gansu Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
出版时间: 2026-08-28 doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2026014
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为探究2025年12月10日甘肃黑方台黄茨2号滑坡复活滑动的致灾机制、动力演化过程及灾后稳定性发展趋势,综合采用野外地质调查与瞬变电磁法解析滑坡深部结构,基于Massflow数值模拟进行三维动力学全过程反演,并运用三维极限平衡法对灾后堆积体与高陡后壁开展定量稳定性评价与运动学预测。得到以下结果:滑坡复活是坡脚开挖、长期灌溉与气象条件耦合的结果,冬季“冻结滞水促滑效应”为直接诱因,表层冻结封堵渗流通道致使深部孔隙水压力积聚,诱发黄土−泥岩顺层滑动;滑坡整体历时22时10分,累计滑移310 m,Massflow反演重现了“蠕滑–加速滑动–减速堆积–停滞压密”4个阶段演化过程,堆积形态交并比达85.85%;定量计算表明,当前堆积体安全系数大于1.15,处于沉降压密的基本稳定状态;但在极端饱和工况下,高陡后壁潜在滑塌方量可达40.9×104 m3,最大滑移距离约640 m。分析表明,滑坡的深层复活受控于冻结滞水及多重扰动机制,当前主体虽已趋于稳定,但极易发生高陡后壁次生失稳,必须建立长期动态监测体系以严防高位灾害。文章定量揭示了“冻结滞水促滑”这一冬季黄土滑坡的特殊诱发机制,突破了黄土滑坡仅依赖降雨、灌溉等单一水动力成因的传统认识;为黑方台及类似灌区黄土滑坡的冬季防灾减灾、应急监测部署和地质灾害早期识别提供了直接的技术参考与理论支撑,对保障当地人民群众生命财产安全具有重要的现实价值。

黄茨滑坡  /  冻结滞水  /  数值模拟  /  复活机制  /  稳定性评价
Objective

To investigate the disaster-causing mechanisms, dynamic evolution, and post-disaster stability trends associated with the reactivation of the Huangci No. 2 landslide in Heifangtai, Gansu Province, on December 10, 2025, field geological investigations and the transient electromagnetic (TEM) surveys were conducted to characterize the deep structure of the landslide.

Methods

The entire three-dimensional dynamic sliding process was back-analyzed using the Massflow numerical model, and the three-dimensional limit equilibrium method was employed to quantitatively evaluate the post-event deposit and the stability of the high and steep rear slope and to predict their potential kinematic responses.

Results

(1) The reactivation of the landslide resulted from the coupled effects of slope-toe excavation, long-term irrigation, and winter freezing conditions. The freezing-induced water-retention and pore-pressure buildup effect acted as the direct trigger: surface freezing blocked seepage pathways, causing pore-water pressure to accumulate at depth and triggering a bedding-parallel slide along the loess–mudstone contact. (2) The entire sliding process lasted 22 h 10 min, with a cumulative displacement of 310 m. The Massflow simulation reproduced four stages of the dynamic evolution: creep, accelerated sliding, deceleration and deposition, and stagnation and compaction. The intersection over union (IoU) of the simulated and observed deposition morphologies reached 85.85%. (3) Quantitative calculations indicate that the current deposit has a factor of safety greater than 1.15, suggesting a relatively stable state characterized by settlement and consolidation. However, under extreme saturation conditions, the potential failure volume of the high and steep rear slope could reach 40.9×104 m3, with a maximum sliding distance of approximately 640 m.

Conclusions

The reactivation of the landslide was controlled by freezing-induced water retention and pore-water pressure buildup, together with multiple external disturbances. Although the main landslide body has generally stabilized, the high and steep rear slope remains highly susceptible to secondary failure. A long-term dynamic monitoring system should therefore be established to mitigate the risk of high-elevation secondary hazards.

Significance

This study quantitatively demonstrates freezing-induced water retention and pore-water pressure buildup as a distinctive triggering mechanism for winter loess landslides, extending the conventional understanding of loess landslide initiation beyond single hydrodynamic factors such as rainfall and irrigation. The findings provide direct technical references and theoretical support for winter landslide prevention and mitigation, emergency monitoring deployment, and early identification of geological hazards in Heifangtai and other irrigated loess tablelands, thereby contributing to the protection of local communities and their property.

Huangci landslide  /  freezing-induced water retention  /  numerical simulation  /  reactivation mechanism  /  stability evaluation
窦晓东, 李玉山, 孟亚腾, 丛凯, 张永军, 贾强. 甘肃黑方台黄茨2号滑坡复活机制与稳定性趋势预测. 地质力学学报, 2026 , 32 (4) : 899 -918 . DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2026014
Xiaodong DOU, Yushan LI, Yateng MENG, Kai CONG, Yongjun ZHANG, Qiang JIA. Reactivation mechanism and stability trend prediction of the Huangci No.2 landslide, Heifangtai, Gansu Province, China[J]. Journal of Geomechanics, 2026 , 32 (4) : 899 -918 . DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2026014
中国黄土高原是世界上黄土覆盖面积最大、地层最厚的区域,也是地质灾害最为频发的地区之一。黄土具有特殊的大孔隙结构和水敏性,在水动力作用下极易发生结构崩解和强度衰减(徐张建等,2007),进而引发大规模的滑坡灾害,具有极强的破坏性(黄润秋,2007;彭建兵等,2014)。黄土滑坡可划分为黄土层内滑坡、黄土接触面滑坡、黄土–泥岩顺层滑坡和黄土–泥岩切层滑坡4种基本类型,不同类型在滑速、滑距及复活特征上存在显著差异(吴玮江和王念秦,2002)。近年来,国内外学者针对不同触发因素与地层结构下的滑坡机理开展了大量研究,部分学者聚焦于降雨与地震等极端工况,深入剖析了降雨型滑坡的失稳破坏概率及不同水文环境下的诱发阈值与深层力学响应(曹羽哲等,2021;Leshchinsky et al.,2021;Fusco et al.,2022),阐释了构造活动、历史强震及降雨等多重因素叠加下的滑坡渐进破坏成因(Pei et al.,2021;王浩杰等,2021),并揭示了降雨与工程开挖扰动下缓倾顺层岩质滑坡的特殊失稳机制与堆积特征(Wang et al.,2014;崔宇寒等,2024;朱志明等,2025)。Pu et al.(2021)通过室内试验、振动台试验与数值模拟,揭示地震与降雨联合作用下黄土泥流滑坡的启动机理。Chen and Song(2021)采用离散元方法(DEM)对甘肃陈何村滑坡进行了动力学反演。然而,上述研究多聚焦于单一或组合触发因素,而自然界中重大滑坡的成生演化实则受地形地貌、地质构造、岩土体结构和水文条件等多因素协同制约(张世殊等,2024)。这种耦合效应在西部山区、采动扰动区及高山峡谷区尤为突出。采空区滑坡即表现出易灾地质结构控制下的差异化失稳模式(张皓翔等,2026)。而在黄土塬区,长期灌溉引起的地下水位上升同样可成为滑坡主导诱因,甘肃省永靖县的黑方台地区即为典型实例——自实施高扬程引黄灌溉以来,该区域地下水位显著抬升(王志荣等,2004),黄土体长期处于高含水甚至局部饱和状态,诱发了大量黄土滑坡与复活事件,被学界称为“黄土滑坡博物馆”(Peng et al.,2019;许强等,2020),为黄土滑坡形成机制、复活规律等研究提供了天然的试验场地。
围绕黑方台及同类滑坡灾害的演化过程,已有研究在滑坡发育分布、监测预警等方面进行了系统探讨(许强,2020;Xu et al.,2020),丁恒等(2021)研究表明古滑坡或休眠滑坡在特定扰动下极易发生复活变形;而构建科学有效的现状评价与预警预测模型已成为灾害风险管控的重要手段(耿海深等,2021)。灌溉入渗、地下水运移及坡脚工程扰动是黑方台黄土滑坡形成与演化的重要控制因素(张雨晴,2007;马建全,2012;许强等,2016;赵宽耀,2021),特别是地下水渗流场的变化,不仅会引发超孔隙水压力促使滑坡产生震后或灾后的长效加速(Kohler and Puzrin,2023),还会引发滑带岩土体力学特性的显著衰减与渗流−剪切耦合破坏(Gao et al.,2025),导致底部含软弱夹层的接触带发生软化和泥化,形成坐软效应并诱发顺层滑坡的渐进后退失稳成灾(亓星等,2017;田俊伟等,2025;Wang et al.,2025)。利用高密度电法(ERT)可有效查明黑方台灌溉水的竖向非饱和入渗特征、台塬地下水空间分布与季节动态,进而揭示地下水位变动对滑坡稳定性的影响(张先林,2019)。同时,非环剪试验与数值模拟结果表明,软弱岩土体遇水后抗剪强度显著衰减,这一力学响应深刻影响着滑坡的形成演化过程及堆积体长期稳定状态(冉丽娜等,2025)。然而,值得注意的是,发生在冬季的滑坡往往缺乏强降雨等直接外部诱发因素,其致灾机制常受“群蝶效应”或冻融作用等多重隐蔽因素驱动,表现得更为复杂(龚涛等,2025)。有学者提出,在黑方台地区坡面冻结层可作为相对隔水边界,导致坡内地下水位壅高并降低斜坡稳定性(李广,2022)。这为解释冬季黄土滑坡的异常频发提供了新的理论视角。
随着灾害识别与数值模拟技术的进步,高密度电法、瞬变电磁法(TEM)及动态力学监测系统已被有效应用于识别滑坡体内部富水结构及捕捉破坏全过程(彭大雷,2018;陶志刚等,2022)。同时,基于动态演化规律与数值模拟方法揭示滑坡机理已成为研究热点(董健麟和卢应发,2025)。学者们广泛采用离散元等数值模拟方法,深入剖析了大型山体滑坡的运动过程特征、能量转化及冲击强度(陈兴等,2021;孟桓羽等,2023;陈建强等,2024);特别是利用深度积分连续介质力学模型分析复合型滑坡的固液耦合演化过程(张晗等,2022),并结合统计模拟法与统计分析探讨滑坡影响成因及堆积层滑坡视摩擦系数的运动学特性(王冉等,2021;明成涛等,2024;张燕云和周金文,2024),在滑坡全过程动力学复演与潜在堵江危险性评价中发挥了关键作用(邸勇等,2025)。高位远程滑坡的3类突出动力效应可概括为动力破碎、动力侵蚀与流态化,强调地质调查、物理试验与数值分析的综合约束(高浩源等,2022)。对比信息量(IV)、逻辑回归(LR)和证据权(WOE)3种统计模型在黄土滑坡与崩塌易发性评价中的预测性能,通过主成分分析(PCA)优化评价因子组合,表明滑坡类型划分对提高评价精度具有重要意义(Tang et al.,2020)。然而,当前针对特定单体黄土−泥岩顺层滑坡在冬季低温条件下的复活机制,以及结合高精度物探与三维动力学模拟的全过程复演研究仍显不足。鉴于此,文章以甘肃省临夏州永靖县为研究区,以黄茨2号滑坡为研究对象,综合采用地质调查、瞬变电磁法、Massflow数值模拟及三维极限平衡分析等方法,对其复活机制、运动过程及灾后稳定性趋势进行系统研究。此次研究突破了单一水动力成因的局限,定量揭示了冬季“冻结滞水促滑效应”在黄土滑坡复活中的核心致灾机制;并实现了该类复合型滑坡从“蠕滑−加速”到“减速−堆积”全过程的高精度三维动力学复演。研究结果深化了对季节性冻融区黄土滑坡复活机理的认识,为黑方台乃至整个黄土高原地区类似滑坡的防灾减灾提供关键的科学依据和技术支撑。
2025年12月10日11时20分,甘肃省临夏州永靖县盐锅峡镇黄茨村黄茨2号滑坡出现蠕滑;15时,滑坡发生整体滑动,滑坡体中心位置地理坐标:东经103°19′45″,北纬36°05′21″(图1)。群测群防员在现场巡查中发现滑坡出现变形迹象,第一时间上报永靖县自然资源局及盐锅峡镇政府,盐锅峡镇政府迅速组织受威胁的120户378人紧急避险转移。因险情发现及时、灾害预警及时、避险转移及时,未造成人员伤亡。
黄茨2号滑坡地处黄河左岸Ⅳ级阶地边缘地带,斜坡前后缘高差约120 m,地形坡度上陡下缓,平均坡度约35°。地层结构自上而下依次为36 m厚的第四系上更新统马兰黄土,质地均匀、疏松多孔且垂直节理发育,遇水易软化并具自重湿陷性;13 m厚的第四系上更新统冲积物(上部6 m为具水平层理的致密黄土状土,下部7 m为砂质充填、胶结密实的砾卵石层)。基底为出露厚度71 m的白垩系泥质砂岩与泥岩,属软弱岩体,呈泥质结构、层状构造,产状130°∠12°(图2)。地下水类型主要分为3类:黄土层潜水(灌溉水经裂缝、裂隙、落水洞等优势通道垂向补给)、砾卵石孔隙水(上部黄土层潜水经黄土状土层补给),以及赋存于泥质砂岩、泥岩节理裂隙中的碎屑岩类孔隙裂隙水(主要接受上部砾卵石孔隙水补给)。前2类地下水均以泉点形式向塬边径流排泄,碎屑岩类孔隙裂隙水沿基岩节理裂隙排泄至前缘黄河Ⅱ级阶地。人类工程活动以农业灌溉和坡脚开挖为主,自20世纪60年代起黑方台塬区的大水漫灌,使地表水沿塬面黄土优势通道渗入地下,造成地下水位逐年上升、土体饱和度提高、自重增加且内摩擦角与黏聚力等力学参数显著降低;坡脚开挖则直接破坏坡体原始应力平衡,增大前缘临空面并引发应力集中,为滑坡发生创造了有利空间条件。
黄茨2号滑坡平面形态呈“簸箕型”(图2),剖面形态呈折线型,主滑方向150°,滑坡长722 m,宽390 m,面积28.19×104 m2,平均厚度24 m,滑坡方量677×104 m3,为大型黄土−泥岩顺层滑坡。
滑坡后缘因下错滑动形成高陡的黄土后壁,平面形态呈“圈椅型”,后壁宽440 m,高40 ~ 60 m,坡度60° ~ 75°,呈上陡下缓状,局部近直立。滑坡中后部下错形成滑坡平台和洼地。滑坡中部受后部推移挤压隆起,呈反坡隆岗地形,地形坡度35° ~ 45°,推测剪出口位于坡脚县道附近,埋藏于地面以下,至上两侧地面鼓胀抬升1 ~ 2 m,公路隆起。滑坡堆积区位于南侧坡面及Ⅱ级阶地,呈扇形堆积,形状较规则,扩散角度25°,堆积体表面平均坡度3° ~ 8°,有大量相间排列的洼地和向后倾倒的隆岗。
黄茨2号滑体厚度纵向呈现“中后部厚、中前部次之、前缘滑舌部较薄”的特点(图3)。滑体后部堆积物主要由马兰黄土组成,滑动造成土体裂解,顶部土体呈粉末状态,局部有地下水溢出,土体含水率较高;中部堆积体成分主要为马兰黄土及泥岩、砂岩碎屑,平均厚度34 m;滑体前部堆积体受后部持续传递应力影响,呈“扇状”堆积,呈流塑状向前缘及两侧扩散,覆盖于黄河左岸Ⅱ级阶地上,主要成分为黄土、卵砾石、泥岩、砂岩团块、碎屑混杂堆积,平均厚度7 m。滑坡体在滑动过程中,由于两侧及底部所受滑床阻力存在差异,导致沿滑动方向的速度不一,进而发生纵向解体,致使整体结构极为破碎。
滑坡上部滑带土成分主要混杂了黄土、黏土及原滑坡堆积物。下部滑带土混杂了Ⅱ级阶地砂砾卵石,滑带土结构破碎,土体松散、饱和,强度低。滑床主要为白垩系紫红色泥岩、砂岩互层,岩层产状130°∠12°,层状构造,胶结程度低,易软化,岩体抗剪强度低。
根据现场野外调查及查阅资料,该滑坡历史上曾多次发生滑动,呈现出体积与影响范围逐步扩大的趋势。1995年1月30日首次大规模滑动(体积约360×104 m3),属低速近程滑坡。王恭先(1997)指出该次滑动由长期灌溉导致深部黄土软化诱发,监测显示其临滑前经历了显著的位移加速过程,通过宏观迹象与变形速率的综合研判,实现了成功预报并未造成人员伤亡。李先福等(2013)基于Verhulst模型的反分析进一步证实,该次滑动遵循“发生–发展–破坏”的非线性演化规律,具有明确的蠕滑加速阶段。2006年5月14日发生第一次复活,滑坡规模增至约600×104 m3,前缘滑体越过公路。此次(2025年)为第二次复活,沿平缓阶地面滑移距离达310 m,是前两次滑距的5倍以上。值得注意的是,2006年复活后,为保障公路通行,前缘抗滑段进行了宽约200 m、深50 ~ 60 m的大规模应急开挖。这一工程活动显著改变了坡体形态,形成了“中后部平缓、前缘高陡”的地形特征,虽然暂时解决了当时的交通问题,但也直接削弱了抗滑段支撑能力,导致滑坡重心上移及坡脚应力集中,为此次大规模复活埋下了隐患。不同的是,1995年的滑坡启动主要表现为整体推移式破坏,并未表现出显著的长距离流体化运动特征;而此次滑坡则因冬季“冻结滞水”导致的高孔压呈现出远程流滑的运动特征。
根据现场调查访问,并结合滑坡类型和特征,2025年12月10日复活的黄茨2号滑坡整体滑动形式表现为前缘牵引、中后部推移的复合型滑动,牵引作用为初始触发机制,推移作用主导后续滑移过程。其自滑动至逐步趋于稳定可分为4个阶段:
(1)蠕滑阶段(2025年12月10日11时20分—15时)
主要表现为滑坡前缘渗水,局部岩土体缓慢位移,坡体出现掉块、局部小规模坍塌,地表出现轻微鼓胀等变形迹象。
(2)加速滑动阶段(2025年12月10日15时—19时)
这是运动过程中最剧烈的阶段。坡体应力达到临界点后,前缘临空坡体率先发生蠕动变形,形成牵引效应,导致原本处于饱和临界状态的中后部土体失去支撑,整体启动并向前推移、刮铲,实现应力的逐级加载和传递,并牵引滑坡后缘坡体相继变形、下错滑动,持续推移前部块体滑动。具体表现为岩土体快速滑动,伴随裂缝贯通、土体坍塌、异响、洼地和反坡平台等现象,应力集中释放。依据滑动前后无人机照片、群测群防员监测情况和卫星影像对比(图4,图5),15时许,滑坡前缘突然出现明显下沉,伴随“轰轰”的沉闷异响,群测群防员现场观测发现,原坡脚鼓胀区土体开始整体向前挤出;同时,滑坡后缘圈椅型后壁开始出现新的拉张裂缝。此阶段,滑体运动速度呈现递增趋势,中部及前缘局部区域出现流塑状土体流滑,裹挟着大量泥岩、砂岩碎屑向前涌动,对前缘的县道及两侧植被造成严重破坏,公路路面被推挤隆起最高达1.8 m。至19时,滑坡体的整体滑动速度开始呈现减缓趋势,累计滑移距离约170 m,平均滑速为28 m/h。
(3)减速堆积阶段(2025年12月10日19时—11日9时30分)
滑坡体不断向前推挤,进入下伏的开阔缓坡地带,在此过程中,滑体发生解体,前部含水量高的土体在后部土体的推挤作用下,部分转化为黄土泥岩碎屑流,继续向前流动。主要表现为滑坡滑速减慢,前缘堆积体向两侧扩散堆积。随着滑体持续向前运动,其能量不断耗散,滑动速度进一步降低。滑体内部因受力不均及与滑床的摩擦作用,发生显著的碎裂解体,形成大小不一的块体,其中前缘流塑状土体在惯性作用下继续向前延伸,而中后部相对完整的块体则逐渐停滞堆积。至11日9时30分,滑坡体整体运动基本停止,前缘滑舌最远延伸至距离后缘约310 m处,并在前缘形成了扇形堆积区。堆积体表面可见多条平行于滑动方向的波状起伏垄岗,垄岗之间为不规则洼地,部分洼地因地下水渗出形成积水。同时,在堆积体中后部形成了明显的挤压鼓丘和剪切裂缝,显示出滑动末期仍存在局部的挤压变形。依据实地调查,并通过对比10日19时和11日9时30分滑坡前缘位置和前后无人机航拍影像,滑坡累计滑移距离约140 m,平均滑速为10 m/h。
(4)停滞压密阶段(2025年12月11日9时30分后)
在前部地表阻力作用下,滑体运动能量逐渐耗散,滑速显著降低并趋于平缓,地表变形活动减弱,未再出现明显的裂缝扩展和土体坍塌现象,饱和堆积体状物质逐渐压密固结,反映出滑坡体逐渐沉降压密,趋于稳定,累计滑移距离310 m。
滑坡后缘因滑坡滑动形成高陡的黄土后壁,滑坡后壁平面形态呈“圈椅型”,呈上陡下缓状,局部近直立,滑坡后壁表面光滑,擦痕明显,此次后壁在原后壁的基础上向后滑移近30 m,西侧坡面局部有地下水渗出;滑坡后壁顶部台塬发育串珠状落水洞(图6a)。滑坡后部因下错形成东西宽440 m、南北长145 m的滑坡平台,平台上局部有地下水溢出。滑坡中上部受后缘土体推移,坡体上发育大量的鼓胀裂缝(图6b),走向与滑向垂直,呈反坡弧形分布,裂缝延伸长度70 ~ 80 m,宽20 ~ 40 cm,可见深度50 ~ 120 cm,裂缝贯通性好,呈张开状,利于降水入渗。
滑坡中下部受后部土体推移、底部滑床的抗滑阻力,因滑速的不同,坡体向前部滑移的同时两侧扩展,形成明显的隆起和鼓丘(图6c)。两侧地面及道路受剪出口反翘剪出而隆起,西侧道路受滑体侧向挤压隆起(图6d),高度1.5~1.8 m,耕地也有不同程度的隆起变形;东侧道路隆起高度较小,耕地无明显隆起变形。滑坡前缘以堆积、掩埋为主,滑坡堆积物呈扇状堆积于黄河Ⅱ级阶地上,局部受房屋阻挡有逆冲抬高现象。滑坡快速运动过程中底部土层处于完全不排水或不完全排水状态,孔隙水压力释放受到抑制,导致底部土层局部升高,甚至出现表面液化现象,从而使摩擦阻力减小,在堆积体前缘中部及侧缘缓坡(坡度约为2°)出现多处类似液体流动的饱和流塑体。
黄茨2号滑坡于2006年5月14日发生复活滑动后,坡体势能未彻底释放,长期处于欠稳定状态。在高陡地形、易滑地层结构及地下水作用的影响下,最终引发滑坡再次复活,其复活机制初步分析如下:
(1)前缘高陡的地形
前缘滑体作为维持坡体稳定的抗滑段,承担主要的抗滑功能(邹宗兴等,2012)。2006年黄茨2号滑坡复活后,当地对滑坡前缘抗滑段进行了大规模开挖(宽200 m,深50 ~ 60 m),使坡体形态显著改变,形成“中后部平缓、前缘高陡”的地形。直接削弱了抗滑段的支撑能力,并导致滑坡体重心上移,使应力向坡脚区域集中。同时,开挖为滑体提供了充足的临空空间,改变坡体应力平衡,从而大幅提高了滑坡再次复活的危险。
(2)坡体结构
根据历史调查资料(魏丽娟,2012),区域内基岩倾向约为180°,此次黄茨2号滑坡主滑向约为150°,属典型的黄土−泥岩顺层滑坡。该类地层结构为滑坡发育提供了有利的内在地质条件。坡体上部为马兰黄土(Qp3eol),疏松多孔、垂直节理发育,渗透性强,遇水易软化、湿陷并易发生变形;下部为白垩系泥质砂岩(K1hk)与砂砾岩,遇水易软化崩解,岩体强度及抗剪性能显著降低。此外,坡体整体呈顺向坡结构,上部黄土层发育拉裂面,下部沿泥岩软弱面形成主滑面,共同构成上部拉裂、下部顺层滑动的典型破坏模式,进一步增加了滑坡发生的可能性。
(3)水的作用
水是此次滑坡复活的关键控制因素。黑方台台塬上部黄土疏松多孔,孔隙、裂隙、垂直节理和落水洞发育,为灌溉水入渗提供了良好通道。长期过量的灌溉水致使黄土层内地下水持续抬升,岩土体在反复浸润下不断软化,导致塬边地段滑坡活动频繁。对黄茨2号滑坡而言,这一过程不仅削弱了上覆黄土的强度,也使下伏基岩软弱层长期处于受水软化状态,为后期复活提供了基础水文地质条件。
2019年8月以来,黑方台台塬区大面积农业灌溉显著减少,区域地下水总体开始缓慢回落,台缘滑坡发生频率也有所降低,但黄茨2号滑坡内部并未因此完全摆脱高含水背景。其原因在于,该滑坡属于黄土−基岩顺层滑坡,且经历多次滑动后,滑带与滑体结构已明显破碎、松散化,坡体内部形成了更有利于水向深部运移的优势渗流通道。地下水不再主要滞留于黄土层内部,而是可沿裂隙和既有滑动通道继续下渗,持续软化下伏泥岩、泥质砂岩及其软弱夹层,并逐步形成贯通上部黄土与下部基岩的深部软弱带。因此,即使灌溉强度下降,坡体内部地下水的消散仍具有明显滞后性,滑坡长期处于欠稳定状态。
此外现场调查表明,滑坡后部台塬区地下水位虽较前期有所回落,但整体仍处于相对高位。同时,受区域暖湿化背景影响,盐锅峡镇2025年降雨量达到456 mm,较常年明显偏多;叠加坡脚排水渠渗漏影响,地表水和浅层地下水持续向坡体中下部及坡脚段补给,使岩土体长期保持较高含水状态,局部甚至接近饱和,黄土层和下伏基岩的软化范围进一步扩大,滑坡在入冬前已具备较强的水敏失稳条件。
12月黑方台地区进入季节性冻结期后,负温持续累积。根据滑坡发生前气温变化资料(图7),12月上旬最低气温持续低于0 ℃,表明坡体浅表层已具备形成季节性冻结层的气象条件。结合黑方台地区既有冻土研究成果,可推测滑坡体表层形成了一定厚度的低渗透冻结层,并在坡体表层形成相对隔水边界,可能诱发冻结滞水效应(李广等,2021)。受其影响,坡体前缘及剪出口附近地下水排泄受阻,内部地下水在冻结层下方进一步聚集,局部地下水位壅高,孔隙水压力增大,最终在前缘支撑减弱、坡体结构不利、岩土体长期软化的共同背景下触发了此次整体深层复活滑动。需要指出的是,上述认识主要依据区域气象资料、灾后现场调查和瞬变电磁法探测结果做出,目前仍缺乏滑坡发生时原位地温和灾前地下水位连续监测资料的直接支撑。
综上,黄茨2号滑坡的再次复活是前缘开挖、不利地层结构和多阶段水文过程共同耦合作用的结果。前缘开挖削弱了抗滑段支撑,打破了坡体原有应力平衡;黄土−泥岩顺层结构控制了深层滑动方式;长期灌溉入渗构成了基础孕灾条件;2019年后,虽然灌溉减量,但由于坡体内部优势渗流通道已经形成,地下水仍维持较高背景;2025年,降雨偏多和排水渠渗漏进一步提高了坡体含水水平;进入冬季后,地表冻结导致地下水排泄受阻,形成冻结封堵、水位壅高、孔隙水压力积聚的促滑过程,最终诱发了规模明显大于2006年的整体深层复活滑动(图8)。
为定量揭示黄茨2号滑坡复活后的全过程运动特征,深入分析其在滑动−堆积过程中的速度、堆积厚度及运移距离等动力学参数演化规律,采用基于深度积分的连续介质力学分析软件Massflow进行全过程复演。该数值模拟软件已被广泛应用于滑坡、泥石流及堰塞湖等链式地质灾害的动力过程分析中,其可靠性已在诸多典型灾害案例中得到验证(Ouyang et al,2015;Fan et al,2020)。Massflow基于广义浅水波方程组,遵循质量守恒与动量守恒定律,能够有效模拟具有自由表面的复杂流体运动;在数值求解方面,采用二阶精度的MacCormack-TVD有限差分格式,在保证计算精度的同时,极大地提高了计算效率,这种方法能够有效模拟流体在复杂地形上的动态演化过程(Ouyang et al,2017,2019)。假设滑体为不可压缩流体,其质量守恒和动量守恒方程在深度方向积分后可表示为
$ \frac{\partial h}{\partial t}+\frac{\partial (hu)}{\partial x}+\frac{\partial (hv)}{\partial y}=0 $
$ \frac{\partial (hu)}{\partial t}+\frac{\partial \left(h{u}^{2}+\dfrac{1}{2}kg{h}^{2}\right)}{\partial x}+\frac{\partial (huv)}{\partial y}={S}_{x} $
$ \frac{\partial (hv)}{\partial t}+\frac{\partial (huv)}{\partial x}+\frac{\partial \left(h{v}^{2}+\dfrac{1}{2}kg{h}^{2}\right)}{\partial y}={S}_{y} $
式中,$ h $—流体厚度,m;u、v—深度平均速度,m/s;$ k $—土压力系数;$ {S}_{x} $、$ {S}_{y} $—x、y方向的源项(包含重力、基底摩擦力等);$ g $—重力加速度,m/s2;$ h $—土体厚度,m;$ t $—时间,s。
考虑到黄茨2号滑坡物质组成主要为非饱和黄土,在运动过程中表现出明显的摩擦流变特性,此次模拟选取Coulomb摩擦模型作为基底流变本构方程。该模型通过摩擦系数和孔隙水压力系数等参数来描述滑体与基底之间的剪切阻力,能够较好地反映黄土滑坡在启动、加速及堆积阶段的力学行为(Zhou et al,2020),其计算基底剪切应力$ {\tau }_{b} $公式为
$ {\tau }_{b}=c+\overline{\rho }gh(1-\lambda )\tan \varphi $
式中,$ c $—黏聚力,Pa;$ \overline{\rho } $—平均密度,kg/m2;$ \lambda $—孔隙水压力系数;$ \varphi $—内摩擦角,(°)。
选取Massflow数值模拟参数时,依据已有学者在黑方台地区实验获得的岩土力学实验参数(周琪等,2019),采用天然状态下的黄土和泥岩、砂岩混杂堆积体,密度2000 kg/m3,黏聚力范围为1000 ~5000 Pa,内摩擦角$ \varphi $= 25°。孔隙水压力系数$ \lambda $无法由物理实验获取,通过已有滑坡反演结果为0.3到0.6,且不同位置饱和状态下的黄土力学参数与实验获得的误差也相对较大。通过多次模拟实验,最终确定主要物理参数(表1)。
基于2025年7月11日无人机航测获取的高精度DEM数据构建计算网格,网格尺寸设定为4 m×4 m。对于已发生的黄茨2号滑坡,其滑源区范围及厚度依据滑后调查数据及瞬变电磁法(TEM)探测反演的滑面位置采用SLBL法插值确定(图9),通过ArcGIS Pro空间插值计算滑体厚度分布(图10),计算得滑体总体积约为670×104 m3。
现场观测将滑坡完整运动过程划分为4个阶段:蠕滑阶段、加速滑动阶段、减速堆积阶段和停滞压密阶段。其中,蠕滑阶段(11:20—15:00)属于滑面贯通前的缓慢变形期,其持续时间约3小时40分,该阶段无法通过Massflow的深度积分连续介质力学模型进行有效表征。因此,数值模拟以t=0 h对应滑坡整体启动时刻,即蠕滑阶段结束、滑面完全贯通之时,仅对后续加速滑动、减速堆积和停滞压密3个阶段进行动力学复演。模拟结果与上述3个运动阶段具有高度一致性(图11)。
(1)加速滑动阶段对应t = 0 ~ 4 h,0 h 时滑体瞬间启动并快速加速,至4 h左右滑体已通过中部陡坡段,动能达到峰值。这一过程与现场调查中12月10日15时至19时的加速滑动阶段吻合,对应了前缘临空面牵引下的应力剧烈释放过程。
(2)减速堆积阶段对应t = 4 ~16 h,4 h 后,随着滑体进入前缘平缓的Ⅱ级阶地,受地形阻力影响,模拟流速逐渐衰减,滑体开始发生明显的侧向扩散。此阶段对应观测的12月10日19时至12月11日30分的减速滑动与堆积阶段,模拟再现了滑体在低速状态下由推移转为扇状扩散的运动学特征。
(3)停滞压密阶段对应t > 20 h,滑体速度趋近于0,整体形态不再变化。这与实际灾情中滑坡历时约22 h(包含前期蠕滑)后于次日上午趋于静止的观测结果基本一致。
以2025年12月10日实际发生的黄茨2号滑坡堆积范围与模拟结果对比,堆积体后缘高程略低于实测值,且中前部侧向扩散范围偏大。这主要是由于在反演过程中,为了准确捕捉滑坡的最大运动距离和主要堆积特征,选取的流变参数在一定程度上弱化了滑体的抗剪强度与黏滞性,导致模拟中的流体化特征较实际情况更为显著。使用交并比$ IoU $评估模拟准确度,其计算公式为:
$ IoU=\frac{TP}{TP+FP+FN} $
此次模拟重合像元数(TP)为28612个,误报像元数(FP)为3031个,漏报像元数(FN)为1683个(图12)。$ IoU $值越接近1,模拟形态与实际越吻合(Sun and Ji,2024),计算得此次模拟结果的$IoU $为0.8585,模拟准确度高,形态吻合优秀。
滑坡后壁土体松散,裂隙发育,临空面较大,存在局部滑移失稳的可能,12月11日和15日已发生共计1493.45 m3的垮塌,对下游地区造成潜在威胁。为实现对滑坡发展趋势更加科学准确的分析,同样采用Massflow软件,对黄茨2号滑坡后壁在饱和状态下失稳滑动开展数值模拟。由于此次模拟选取后壁饱和液化下的极端工况,孔隙水压力取值0.6,内摩擦角取值15°,不考虑黏聚力,模拟时长1 h。
模拟结果显示,滑坡体后壁参与滑移的土体方量为40.9×104 m3,剪出口位置位于黄土层和砾卵石层接触面,滑体呈“流塑状”滑动后,受前缘反坡平台阻挡后,会沿两侧侧壁低洼处外溢,在平缓处扩散。运动距离639.98 m,覆盖面积为2.77×105 m2(图13),可能对前缘民房造成威胁,需开展持续监测工作。
黄茨2号滑坡此次滑动后,内部势能与应力显著释放,重心下移,前缘出现多处饱和土液化现象,反映出滑体的排水系统正在逐渐重建,后期再次发生大规模整体性滑动的可能性较低。但滑坡前缘土体松散、含水率高、抗剪强度低,极端或连续降水条件下可能因地表水入渗引发前缘两侧松散、高陡的边坡局部滑移失稳。
依据12月11日~15日4期无人机航测数据(分辨率小于6 cm)差分对比分析,黄茨2号滑坡后壁中部发生局部垮塌,方量1493.45 m3,堆积体整体变化不明显,处于基本稳定状态;其中,12日较11日后缘局部形变量1 ~ 2 m,后壁存在小范围垮塌(图14a);13日较12日滑坡中上部存在小范围变形,同时有树木倾倒现象,滑坡堆积体整体周界无明显变化(图14b);14日较13日仅在滑坡后壁底部洼地处存在局部变形,滑坡堆积体整体周界无变化(图14c),15日较14日堆积体整体几乎无变化(图14d)。
2025年12月13日,在堆积体及其周边布设了22台GNSS位移计(含2台基站)和3台声光报警器(图15)。依据监测数据分析,黄茨2号滑坡后壁顶部(GNSS1、GNSS2、GNSS3)累计位移0.2 ~ 38.6 mm;滑坡中上部(GNSS4、GNSS5、GNSS6、GNSS7、GNSS8、GNSS9)累计位移5.1~58.5 mm;滑坡中部(GNSS10、GNSS11、GNSS12)累计位移2.1 ~ 26.9 mm;滑坡前缘(GNSS13、GNSS14、GNSS15)累计位移23.8 ~ 48.7 mm。滑坡后壁顶部数据反映出滑坡滑动后形成的高陡后壁处于应力调整、局部变形阶段,易发生局部黄土层内滑动;滑坡中上部及前缘位移以垂向为主,反映出滑坡堆积体正在沉降压密,整体处于基本稳定状态。
根据GB/T 32864-2016《滑坡防治工程勘察规范》(中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局和中国国家标准化管理委员会,2017)推荐,采用三维极限平衡分析方法对黄茨2号滑坡的堆积体进行稳定性评价。其核心原理是将传统的二维条分法扩展至三维空间,通过将潜在滑坡体离散化为一系列紧密排列的垂直土柱,从而建立整体的静力平衡方程。
基于上述原理,三维极限平衡法的主控公式如下:
$ {F}_{{\mathrm{s}}}=\frac{\displaystyle\sum \limits_{i=1}^{n}\left[{c}_{i}{A}_{i}+\left({N}_{i}-{u}_{i}{A}_{i}\right)\tan {\phi }_{i}\right]}{\displaystyle\sum \limits_{i=1}^{n}\left({W}_{i}\sin {\alpha }_{i}\right)} $
式中,$ F\mathrm{_s} $—安全系数;$ {c}_{i} $—土柱底面接触土层的有效黏聚力,Pa;$ {\phi }_{i} $—土柱底面接触土层的有效内摩擦角,(°);$ {A}_{i} $—第$ i $个土柱底面在滑动面上的真实面积,m2,等于土柱的水平截面积除以滑动面倾角的余弦值;$ {W}_{i} $—第$ i $个土柱的自重,N;$ {\alpha }_{i} $—第$ i $个土柱底面滑动面的倾角,(°);$ {N}_{i} $—作用在滑面上的总法向力,N,近似取值为重力在法线方向的分量,即$ {N}_{i}= {W}_{i}\cos {\alpha }_{i} $;$ {u}_{i} $—作用在滑面处的孔隙水压力,Pa,近似取值为压力水头乘以地下水容重,即$ {u}_{i}={\gamma }_{w}\times {h}_{i} $,其中,$ {\gamma }_{w} $—地下水容重,N/m3;$ {h}_{i} $—第$ i $个土柱的压力水头,m。
此次计算中的地表高程数据由无人机航测获得。滑动面深度与前文相同,由TEM探测结果采用SLBL法插值确定(图16)。黏聚力与内摩擦角取值也与上文数值模拟部分保持一致。滑坡区域地下水位的绝对高程的空间变化率较大,地下水位面难以确定,计算难度较大且不利于后期预警,故取地下水位的平均高程进行计算。根据瞬变电磁法探测结果,滑面最低点高程为1545.1 m,当地下水位绝对高程低于该界限时,水位完全位于滑面以下;当地下水位绝对高程为1665.9 m时,地下水位接近地表,不考虑地表积水的外部荷载,此时整个堆积体处于完全饱和状态。在这两个高程值之间平均取40个地下水位高程,将堆积体划分为226×253个土柱,计算每个水位所对应的堆积体安全系数。
由计算结果分析可知(图17),当地下水位高程低于1596.83 m时,安全系数大于1.15,堆积体处于稳定状态;当地下水位高程上升至1593.29 ~ 1596.83 m之间时,安全系数大于1.05,堆积体处于基本稳定状态;当地下水位高程上升至1593.29 ~ 1598.71 m之间时,安全系数大于1,堆积体处于欠稳定状态;当地下水位高程高于1596.83 m时,安全系数小于1,堆积体处于不稳定状态,此时滑坡极易再次复活,需及时发出预警。目前,滑坡区地下水位深度基本位于滑面以下,堆积体处于稳定状态,失稳概率较低。
此次研究是在黄茨2号滑坡发生后,基于应急抢险与灾害调查需求迅速开展的。尽管通过多源数据融合揭示了滑坡的复活机制与动力过程,但受限于突发性地质灾害的现场条件与数据获取难度,在以下几个方面仍存在局限性,需在后续工作中予以深化。
(1)缺乏滑坡发生时的原位地温实测数据。“冻结滞水促滑效应”是基于区域气象资料与灾后现场踏勘进行的理论推断。由于滑坡发生突然,未能在滑动关键期获取滑坡体深部的实测地温剖面数据,因此无法定量刻画冻结锋面的下移过程及其与地下水位升高的时空对应关系。使得地表冻结层的具体厚度及其对土体渗透性的封堵效率更多停留在定性分析层面,缺乏直接的物理观测证据支撑。
(2)缺少滑坡发生前地下水位的连续监测记录。地下水位的异常抬升是诱发此次深层滑动的关键驱动力。由于滑坡体内部在灾前未布设地下水自动监测设备,研究缺乏滑坡启动前夕地下水位瞬态变化的直接数据。文中关于“水位壅高”的结论主要依据灾后瞬变电磁法的高导异常反演结果以及当地村民的走访调查推导而来。虽然间接证据链条完整,但未能精细重现冻结滞水效应的完整动态响应曲线。
(3)冻结层水力参数的定量化不足。在分析冻结层作用时,参考了黑方台地区已有的冻土研究成果,认为表层冻结会形成相对隔水边界。但尚未开展针对该滑坡的低温渗透性试验,缺乏不同负温条件下土体渗透系数衰减的定量实验数据,需更多室内土工试验与数值模拟的耦合验证。
(4)数值模拟参数选取。在利用Massflow软件复演滑坡动力过程时,虽然反演结果与实际堆积形态吻合度较高,但模型中的孔隙水压力系数是基于反分析选取的定值。实际上,滑坡运动过程中涉及复杂的土体破碎、液化及基底铲刮效应,其物理力学参数是动态变化的。未来的研究可进一步考虑参数的空间变异性与时变特性,以提高模拟的物理真实性。
针对上述不足,后续研究建议建立长效的“水−热−力”耦合监测体系,重点关注冬季冻融期的深部地温与地下水动态,并辅以室内冻土力学试验,以进一步验证冻结滞水促滑机理。根据现阶段的研究成果,提出以下防灾减灾措施建议。
(1)基于此次评估结果,建议进一步精细划定黄茨2号滑坡的危险区与潜在影响区,为后续地质灾害避险搬迁及风险管控提供精准的地质科学依据,从地质环境容量角度支撑隐患的根源性消除。
(2)当前已临近冻融期,需持续加密监测预警频次,重点监测黄茨2号滑坡后壁及侧壁陡坎的变形、裂缝发育与渗水情况,建立空天地一体化监测预警体系,特别是在冬季冻融期,重点监测深部孔隙水压力及地温变化,利用TEM定期巡测地下水位,结合GNSS和InSAR对潜在滑坡进行形变监测,可在堆积体上及后缘重点监测地下水位和深部孔隙水压力,对可能发生的灾害及时预警确保隐患早发现、早研判、早处置。
(3)黄茨2号滑坡前缘堆积体系滑坡阻滑关键区段,在后续防治工程设计与周边开发中,应重点保护该区域的整体力学平衡,避免因工程开挖引发卸荷效应而导致滑体失稳。对局部不稳定的前缘,建议利用现有堆积体进行反压或修建抗滑桩,以提升边坡整体的安全储备。
(4)针对黄茨2号滑坡具有水敏性强、后壁高陡破碎等复杂特征,建议构建地表截排水渠与深部排水孔组成的立体排水系统,适当降低黄土层水位,提高滑坡体及滑坡后壁的稳定性。同时,建议深化黑方台台塬区灌溉型黄土滑坡成因机制研究,系统分析致灾规律,针对性提出灌溉型黄土滑坡的综合防治技术措施与方案。
以黄茨2号滑坡为研究对象,综合运用地质调查、瞬变电磁法(TEM)、Massflow数值模拟及三维极限平衡法,对其复活机制、运动过程及灾后稳定性进行了系统研究,主要得出以下结论。
(1)黄茨2号滑坡是灌溉入渗、坡脚开挖与冬季冻结滞水协同作用引发的深层黄土−泥岩顺层滑坡复活事件。坡脚开挖破坏应力平衡、长期灌溉软化岩土体为滑坡提供了基础条件,而地表冻结导致的渗水通道封堵与地下水排泄受阻,形成的“冻结滞水促滑效应”是此次滑坡大规模复活的直接诱因——地表冻结导致渗水通道堵塞,深部地下水位迅速壅高及孔隙水压力积聚,最终导致坡体失稳。
(2)滑坡运动经历了“蠕滑−加速滑动−减速堆积−停滞压密”4个阶段,持续时长约22 h。蠕滑阶段(2025年12月10日11时20分—15时)缓慢变形,加速阶段(2025年12月10日15时—19时)平均滑速28 m/h、累计滑距170 m,减速堆积阶段(2025年12月10日19时—11日9时30分)平均滑速10 m/h、新增滑距140 m,最终停滞压密阶段(2025年12月11日9时30分—10时)累计滑移310 m。基于Massflow软件的动力学反演结果显示,模拟的堆积范围与实际滑坡形态吻合度极高(交并比为0.8585),成功再现了滑坡远程滑移特征,并根据反演所得力学参数,对后壁可能失稳区域进行了运动学预测。
(3)综合4期无人机影像差分、GNSS位移监测及三维极限平衡计算表明,目前滑坡堆积体正在经历沉降压密过程,整体处于稳定状态(安全系数Fs>1.15);但滑坡后缘形成的近直立高陡后壁仍存在局部变形迹象。受特殊的水文地质条件影响,滑坡区黄土层土体长期饱和,在极端天气或冻融工况下可能发生40.9×104 m3规模的次生滑动,沿两侧低洼处运移639.98 m,对坡脚居民区构成潜在威胁。

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2026年第32卷第4期
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doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2026014
  • 接收时间:2026-01-28
  • 首发时间:2026-09-30
  • 出版时间:2026-08-28
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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-28
  • 修回日期:2026-04-14
  • 录用日期:2026-04-15
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    1兰州城市地质灾害野外科学观测研究站,甘肃 兰州 730000
    2甘肃省地质环境监测院,甘肃 兰州 730000

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李玉山(1978—),男,正高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治工作。Email:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family
属数
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genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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