Article(id=1149744591798191104, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, issueId=1149744590489568247, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2024.02.001, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1697731200000, receivedDateStr=2023-10-20, revisedDate=1702396800000, revisedDateStr=2023-12-13, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752050071906, onlineDateStr=2025-07-09, pubDate=null, pubDateStr=null, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752050071906, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752050071906, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752050071906, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1149744590489568247, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, year='2024', volume='37', issue='2', pageStart='1', pageEnd='145', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1752050071594, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1753780157843, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1157001098214068362, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, issueId=1149744590489568247, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1157001098214068363, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, issueId=1149744590489568247, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1, endPage=7, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149744592196648964, articleId=1149744591798191104, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, language=EN, title=Nonlinear and Synergistic Effects of Station-area Built Environments on Metro Ridership: A Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) Analysis, columnId=1152669340382966151, journalTitle=Urban Rapid Rail Transit, columnName=Forum of Rapid Rail Transit, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

This study uses multisource big data (e.g., metro card transactions, mobile phone signaling, and points of interest (POIs)) and interpretable machine learning methods (integrating random forest and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) models) to investigate the nonlinear relationship between stationarea built environments and Chengdu Metro ridership as well as the synergistic effects among built environment variables. The results indicate that the three most important built environment determinants of metro ridership are the floor area ratio, employment density, and road density. Moreover, the SHAP model results reveal the threshold and synergistic effects of the stationarea built environment variables on metro ridership. These findings provide theoretical support and policy insights for transitoriented developmental (TOD) planning and practice.

, correspAuthors=Linchuan YANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Yufei WANG, Haosen YANG, Bingjie YU, Fei FU, Linchuan YANG), CN=ArticleExt(id=1149744600006443202, articleId=1149744591798191104, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, language=CN, title=站域建成环境与地铁客流量的非线性关系和协同效应-可解释机器学习分析, columnId=1152669340680761737, journalTitle=都市快轨交通, columnName=快轨论坛, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为了量化站域建成环境与地铁客流量的复杂关联效应,运用公共交通刷卡、手机信令、POI(point of interest)等多源大数据,采用可解释机器学习方法(融合随机森林和 SHAP(Shapley additive explanations)模型), 对站域建成环境变量与成都地铁客流量之间的非线性关系以及变量之间的协同效应进行实证研究。研究结果表明:对地铁客流量影响最大的3个建成环境变量是容积率、就业密度和道路密度。SHAP模型分析进一步揭示了站域建成环境对地铁客流量的阈值效应以及建成环境变量之间的协同效应。上述发现为以公共交通为导向的城市发展(transitoriented development,TOD)规划和实践提供了理论支持和政策启示。

, correspAuthors=杨林川, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
杨林川,男,博士,教授,博士生导师,从事交通与土地利用研究,
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汪雨菲,女,硕士,从事城市治理、城市更新研究,

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汪雨菲,女,硕士,从事城市治理、城市更新研究,

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变量名称 变量描述 均值 标准差
人口密度/ (万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ ) 站点缓冲区居住人口与其 面积之比 1.53 1.11
就业密度/ (万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ ) 站点800 m 范围内就业岗 位数量与其面积之比 1.10 0.88
容积率 站点缓冲区总建筑面积与 其面积之比 1.83 1.37
建筑密度 站点缓冲区建筑基底面积 与其面积之比 0.14 0.10
土地利用混合度 站点缓冲区功能设施类型 的熵值 0.41 0.12
出入口数量/个 - 4.44 1.77
交叉口密度/ (个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ ) 站点缓冲区道路交叉口数 量其面积之比 13.04 8.85
道路密度/ $\left( {\mathrm{{km}}/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}}\right)$ 站点缓冲区路网总长度其 面积之比 13.88 4.94
商业设施密度/ (个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ ) 站点800 m 范围内商业服 务设施数量与其面积之比 213.58 181.45
小区密度 $/\left( {个/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}}\right)$ 站点800 m 范围内小区数 量与其面积之比 37.04 43.53
$\mathrm{{CBD}}$ 的距离 $/\mathrm{{km}}$ 站点到金融城的距离 13.22 7.89
到城市中心的距离/ km 站点到天府广场(传统城市中 心和城市几何中心)的距离 12.19 8.73
), ArticleFig(id=1154040327619994430, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, articleId=1149744591798191104, language=CN, label=表 1, caption=建成环境变量的统计性描述, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量名称 变量描述 均值 标准差
人口密度/ (万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ ) 站点缓冲区居住人口与其 面积之比 1.53 1.11
就业密度/ (万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ ) 站点800 m 范围内就业岗 位数量与其面积之比 1.10 0.88
容积率 站点缓冲区总建筑面积与 其面积之比 1.83 1.37
建筑密度 站点缓冲区建筑基底面积 与其面积之比 0.14 0.10
土地利用混合度 站点缓冲区功能设施类型 的熵值 0.41 0.12
出入口数量/个 - 4.44 1.77
交叉口密度/ (个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ ) 站点缓冲区道路交叉口数 量其面积之比 13.04 8.85
道路密度/ $\left( {\mathrm{{km}}/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}}\right)$ 站点缓冲区路网总长度其 面积之比 13.88 4.94
商业设施密度/ (个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ ) 站点800 m 范围内商业服 务设施数量与其面积之比 213.58 181.45
小区密度 $/\left( {个/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}}\right)$ 站点800 m 范围内小区数 量与其面积之比 37.04 43.53
$\mathrm{{CBD}}$ 的距离 $/\mathrm{{km}}$ 站点到金融城的距离 13.22 7.89
到城市中心的距离/ km 站点到天府广场(传统城市中 心和城市几何中心)的距离 12.19 8.73
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站域建成环境与地铁客流量的非线性关系和协同效应-可解释机器学习分析
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汪雨菲 1 , 杨皓森 2 , 喻冰洁 2 , 付飞 2 , 杨林川 2
都市快轨交通 | 快轨论坛 2024,37(2): 1-7
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都市快轨交通 | 快轨论坛 2024, 37(2): 1-7
站域建成环境与地铁客流量的非线性关系和协同效应-可解释机器学习分析
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汪雨菲1 , 杨皓森2, 喻冰洁2, 付飞2, 杨林川2
作者信息
  • 1 电子科技大学 经济与管理学院 成都 611731
  • 2 西南交通大学 建筑学院 成都 611756
  • 汪雨菲,女,硕士,从事城市治理、城市更新研究,

通讯作者:

杨林川,男,博士,教授,博士生导师,从事交通与土地利用研究,
Nonlinear and Synergistic Effects of Station-area Built Environments on Metro Ridership: A Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) Analysis
Yufei WANG1 , Haosen YANG2, Bingjie YU2, Fei FU2, Linchuan YANG2
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Economics and Management University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu 611731
  • 2 School of Architecture Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu 611756
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2024.02.001
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为了量化站域建成环境与地铁客流量的复杂关联效应,运用公共交通刷卡、手机信令、POI(point of interest)等多源大数据,采用可解释机器学习方法(融合随机森林和 SHAP(Shapley additive explanations)模型), 对站域建成环境变量与成都地铁客流量之间的非线性关系以及变量之间的协同效应进行实证研究。研究结果表明:对地铁客流量影响最大的3个建成环境变量是容积率、就业密度和道路密度。SHAP模型分析进一步揭示了站域建成环境对地铁客流量的阈值效应以及建成环境变量之间的协同效应。上述发现为以公共交通为导向的城市发展(transitoriented development,TOD)规划和实践提供了理论支持和政策启示。

城市轨道交通  /  TOD  /  建成环境  /  协同效应  /  非线性  /  机器学习

This study uses multisource big data (e.g., metro card transactions, mobile phone signaling, and points of interest (POIs)) and interpretable machine learning methods (integrating random forest and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) models) to investigate the nonlinear relationship between stationarea built environments and Chengdu Metro ridership as well as the synergistic effects among built environment variables. The results indicate that the three most important built environment determinants of metro ridership are the floor area ratio, employment density, and road density. Moreover, the SHAP model results reveal the threshold and synergistic effects of the stationarea built environment variables on metro ridership. These findings provide theoretical support and policy insights for transitoriented developmental (TOD) planning and practice.

urban rail transit  /  transit-oriented development (TOD)  /  built environment  /  synergistic effect  /  nonlinearity  /  machine learning
汪雨菲, 杨皓森, 喻冰洁, 付飞, 杨林川. 站域建成环境与地铁客流量的非线性关系和协同效应-可解释机器学习分析. 都市快轨交通, 2024 , 37 (2) : 1 -7 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2024.02.001
Yufei WANG, Haosen YANG, Bingjie YU, Fei FU, Linchuan YANG. Nonlinear and Synergistic Effects of Station-area Built Environments on Metro Ridership: A Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) Analysis[J]. Urban Rapid Rail Transit, 2024 , 37 (2) : 1 -7 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2024.02.001
地铁作为一种高效便捷、低碳环保的公共交通工具,在全球范围内得到广泛应用 [ 1 ] 。截至 2022 年底, 全球有 60 个国家和地区的 189 个城市启用了地铁, 总里程达 2.02 万km [ 2 ] 。在中国大陆地区,已有 41 个城市开通了地铁,总运营里程达8 012.85 km[3] 。在地铁与土地利用一体化发展的过程中, 以公共交通为导向的开发模式(transit-oriented development, TOD)成为关键支撑。客流量是评估地铁运营效率和 TOD 实施效果的重要指标。因此, 深入了解地铁客流量的关键影响因素对于城市交通与规划部门制定合理的公共交通管理措施和土地利用规划方案至关重要。
现有研究已广泛证实建成环境对出行行为(如出行次数、出行方式和路径选择)的重要影响。CERVERO 等提出了影响出行行为的建成环境 $3\mathrm{{Ds}}$ 模型 [ 4 ] ,强调密度(density)、多样性(diversity)和设计(design)的重要作用。在此基础上, EWING 等补充了目的地可达性 (destination)和公共交通可达性(distance to transit), 形成了广泛应用的 $5\mathrm{{Ds}}$ 模型 [ 5 ] 。在 $5\mathrm{{Ds}}$ 模型的框架下, 许多学者深入研究了公共交通客流量与站域建成环境的相互关系 [ 6 - 8 ] 。例如, JUN 等采用逐步回归模型,研究了土地利用特征与地铁客流量的关系, 结果表明人口密度、就业密度、土地利用混合度等建成环境要素与地铁客流量呈正相关 [ 6 ] 。GAN 等指出,人口密度、地铁站点出入口数量以及道路密度是影响地铁客流量的关键要素 [ 7 ] 。LIU 等基于地铁刷卡数据与建成环境数据构建了多元回归模型, 结果表明站点可达性与客流量呈正相关 [ 8 ]
现有研究主要采用传统线性回归模型、空间回归模型或地理加权回归模型, 以探究站域建成环境要素对地铁客流量的影响。尽管这些方法能够揭示地铁客流量与建成环境要素之间的广义线性关系, 但却难以捕捉建成环境对客流量的非线性作用。近年来, 一些学者引入机器学习模型研究两者之间的非线性关系, 以识别各种建成环境要素影响地铁客流量的有效阈值范围 [ 9 - 10 ] 。例如,颜冉等采用梯度提升决策树对合肥市轨道交通站点客流数据和建成环境数据进行建模。 研究结果显示,在 POI 密度超过 4500 个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 后,其对客流量的促进作用趋于饱和 [ 9 ] 。YANG 等基于公共交通智能卡数据、地理数据和手机信令数据构建了随机森林模型, 揭示了成都地铁在早高峰、晚高峰和平峰 3 个时段的地铁客流量与建成环境的非线性关联, 发现容积率、人口密度以及就业密度对地铁客流量的影响存在关键拐点,分别为2.5、4万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 和6万人/km2[10] 。 尽管上述研究通过机器学习模型证实了建成环境与地铁客流量之间的非线性关系, 但它们无法识别建成环境各特征之间的协同作用。
本研究通过整合公共交通智能卡数据、兴趣点(point of interest, POI)信息以及建筑空间轮廓等多源大数据, 对成都市地铁站点的出行客流和站域建成环境特征进行了全面量化, 并结合随机森林和 SHAP(Shapley additive explanations)模型, 深入解析了地铁站域建成环境与客流量之间的复杂非线性关系和协同效应。
本研究以成都地铁为研究对象。近年来, 成都地铁发展迅速。自 2010 年第一条地铁线路 (1 号线) 投入运营以来, 成都仅用 10 年时间就开通了 10 余条线路, 总里程达到 ${519}\mathrm{\;{km}}$ 。成都的轨道交通由此步入网络化时代 (见 图 1 )。2021 年,成都地铁年客流量突破 18 亿人次。截至 2023 年 4 月,累计客流量已经超过 100 亿人次。目前, 成都还有 8 条在建地铁线路, 总里程为 ${178}\mathrm{\;{km}}$ 。这些新线建成后,将形成总长近 ${700}\mathrm{\;{km}}$ 的地铁网络,初步实现 “全域轨道” 城市的发展目标。
本研究选择了 2023 年 1 月作为研究时段, 对成都地铁所有站点进行了详细分析。地铁客流数据来源于成都轨道交通集团有限公司提供的公交智能卡数据。 研究基于 2023 年 1 月的日均客流量进行建模, 并通过 GIS Pro 软件进行了数据可视化和深入分析(见 图 2 )。
乘客步行到达地铁站的平均时长约为 ${10}\mathrm{\;{min}}$ 。鉴于此,许多研究通常以 ${500}\sim {1000}\mathrm{\;m}$ 半径范围的圆形区域(基于直线距离)或不规则多边形(基于网格距离)来界定地铁站点的影响区域。考虑到这些区域可能存在重叠, 本研究选择了基于泰森多边形 (Thiessen polygon)的 ${800}\mathrm{\;m}$ 缓冲区作为站点影响区域。
本研究通过综合利用多源大数据, 对地铁站域的建成环境特征进行了精准的量化。首先, 借助手机信令数据,采用了类似于王德等 [ 11 ] 、YU 等 [ 12 ] 的方法,进行人口和就业岗位数量的计算。具体流程如下: ①设定 $9 :{00}\sim {18}: {00}$ 为工作时间段,21:00 (次日 6:00 为休息时间段。②统计每个手机用户在 1 个月内,工作时段和休息时段到访过的所有网格, 形成该用户的潜在职住地集合, 并计算停留时间。③ 根据潜在的居住地和工作地, 选取用户停留时间最长且超过一定天数阈值的网格,作为该用户的最终居住地与工作地。该手机信令数据用于推算人口数量和就业数量的精度已在文献[ 12 ]验证。其次,通过高德、百度等开源数据平台获取 POI 数据、地铁出入口数量以及建筑轮廓和楼层数据; 城市道路网数据则从 Open Street Map 获取。④利用 GIS Pro 的裁剪、相交以及字段汇总等功能处理上述数据, 计算得到地铁站点缓冲区内的人口密度、就业密度等变量。同时,计算每个地铁站到市中心和 CBD 的距离。所有建成环境变量的统计性描述如 表 1 所示。
随机森林(random forest)是一种强大的机器学习算法, 被广泛应用于分类和回归问题。该方法由 Leo Breiman 于 2001 年在随机决策森林(random decision forest)的基础上提出。随机森林是基于决策树的集成学习方法。它通过整合多棵决策树以提高模型性能和泛化能力。每棵决策树都是独立的分类或回归模型。 在分类问题中, 每棵决策树提供一个预测类别; 在回归问题中, 每棵决策树提供一个预测值。最终的随机森林结果通过多数投票方式(分类问题)或取所有树预测结果的平均值(回归问题)得到。 图 3 展示了随机森林计算流程 [ 13 ]
为了增加模型多样性和鲁棒性, 随机森林引入了两种随机性。一方面, 在训练每棵决策树时, 通过有放回地从原始数据中随机采样形成不同的训练子集, 即自助采样。另一方面, 在每棵决策树的节点上, 随机森林模型会随机选择特征进行分裂。这两种随机性确保了每棵决策树的独立性,降低了过拟合的风险[ 14 ]。
随机森林具备处理高维和大规模数据的能力, 同时也能有效处理缺失值和异常值, 无需过多的特征选择或数据预处理工作。此外, 随机森林能够估计每个特征的重要度, 有助于识别对因变量影响最大的特征 (即自变量)。引入随机性使得随机森林对噪声和异常值具有一定的鲁棒性, 不容易受到单个数据点的影响。 总体而言, 随机森林的高准确性、适应性、鲁棒性以及对数据问题的自动处理能力使其成为非线性研究的重要工具。
SHAP 模型最初由 Lundberg 和 Lee 于 2017 年提出。SHAP 是一种用于解释机器学习模型预测机理的方法, 其核心概念源自合作博弈论中的 Shapley 值(即 SHAP 值)。该方法可输出每个特征对于模型输出的贡献程度, 并提供了一种同时适用于全局和局部特征解释的手段, 从而深入解释模型的预测结果。
SHAP 模型的基本原理如下: 研究者希望计算每个特征在不同预测中的 Shapley 值, 即每个特征对于预测的平均贡献。通过对不同特征子集的所有可能排列进行遍历, 计算 SHAP 值时会考虑每个特征的贡献, 最终获取每个特征的 SHAP 值。这个过程确保了特征的贡献被公平地分配。SHAP 值的应用较为广泛, 可用于分析特征值对模型预测结果的正负效果、特征值对预测结果的具体影响以及协同效应等。
SHAP 模型具有强大的解释性、一致性和模型适用性等特点, 能够提供直观的特征重要性解释, 帮助理解模型做出某个特定预测的原因。此外, SHAP 值的总和等于模型的输出与基准值之间的差异。值得注意的是, SHAP 模型并不依赖于具体的模型算法, 可以和多种模型联合使用, 包括决策树、随机森林、梯度提升决策树等。
为提高随机森林模型的性能和泛化能力, 本研究采用网格搜索技术确定最佳的超参数组合。首先, 选择了 3 个超参数, 并限制其取值范围: 决策树数量范围为 100 到 1000(间隔为 100 )、树的深度范围为 1 到 10(间隔为 1 )、最大特征数范围为 2 到 10(间隔为 1 )。 然后, 利用袋外数据误差(out-of-bag error)对采用上述超参数组合后的模型性能进行评估。最终结果显示, 当决策树数量为 500 、树的深度为 7 、最大特征数为 4 时, 模型性能最优。
图 4(a) 展示了各建成环境变量对地铁客流量预测的重要度。首先, 容积率对地铁客流量的影响最大, 其次是就业密度。此外, 道路密度和交叉口密度对地铁客流量的影响较大, 表明提高地铁站域的空间可达性可提升居民使用地铁的便利性,从而提升站点客流量。 相比之下,到 CBD 的距离和到城市中心的距离在预测地铁客流量方面影响较为微弱。
图 4(b) 呈现了各建成环境变量的 SHAP 值分布情况, 其中变量按重要度降序排列。每个点代表一个数据样本, $x$ 轴位置表示该点的 SHAP 值。右侧的点表示该特征与预测结果呈正相关, 而左侧的点表示与预测结果呈负相关。点的颜色反映了变量特征值的大小, 红色表示高值, 蓝色表示低值。 图 4(b) 可以展示建成环境变量与地铁客流量的相关关系。以道路密度为例, 低值(蓝色)主要分布在左侧,而高值(红色)主要分布在右侧。这表明道路密度的增长可以提高地铁客流量。 此外, 道路密度呈现较长的 “右尾” 和较短的 “左尾”, 这表明较低的道路密度对地铁客流量的影响相对较小, 而较高的道路密度则极大地提高了地铁客流量。
SHAP 模型能够生成展示自变量与因变量关系的局部依赖图。 图 5 呈现了重要度排名前 4 的建成环境变量的局部依赖图。建成环境变量与地铁客流量之间呈现明显的非线性关系和阈值效应, 表现出多段式梯度变化特征。例如, 图 5(a) 显示了容积率对地铁客流量的主要影响。当容积率在 $0 \sim {1.3}$ 范围内时,它与地铁客流量呈负相关, 表明相对较低的站域容积率导致站点客流量下降。然而, 当容积率从 1.3 增加到 6 时, 它与地铁客流量呈正相关, 且这一正相关作用逐渐增强, 符合预期。
图 5(b) 展示了就业密度对地铁客流量的主要影响。 在就业密度小于1.2万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 时,其与地铁客流量呈负相关。然而,当就业密度超过 1.2 万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 之后,其与地铁客流量呈正相关,且这一正相关效应逐渐增强。 这一结果是合理的, 原因如下: 首先, 通勤人员是地铁用户的重要群体, 因此当地铁站域就业岗位较少时, 地铁客流量增长受到限制;其次, 当就业密度达到一定阈值时, 增加就业岗位数量对地铁客流量的正向影响趋于饱和。
图 5(c) 展示了道路密度对地铁客流量的主要影响。 当道路密度小于 ${17}\mathrm{\;{km}}/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 时,其对客流量产生抑制作用。然而,当道路密度从 ${17}\mathrm{\;{km}}/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 增加到 ${20}\mathrm{\;{km}}/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 时, 其对地铁客流量的促进作用显著提升。
图 5(d) 展示了交叉口密度对地铁客流量的主要影响。当交叉口密度小于20个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 时,它与地铁客流量呈负相关。然而,当交叉口密度从 20 个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 增加到 25 个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 时,其对地铁客流量的正向促进作用急剧增加, 超过这一范围后, 其影响逐渐趋于平稳。
SHAP 模型可以计算出各个建成环境变量之间的局部交互效应, 并识别了产生最强交互作用的变量组。 图 6 展示了部分建成环境变量的局部交互效应。 图 6(a) 展示了就业密度对地铁客流量的影响如何随着到城市中心距离的变化而改变。每个点代表一个数据样本, $x$ 轴表示就业密度的特征值,颜色代表到城市中心距离的特征值(红色为高值,蓝色为低值)。散点的垂直分散程度反映了两个变量交互作用的大小。可以看出, 当就业密度较高(大于 1 万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ )且到市中心距离较近 (小于 ${14}\mathrm{\;{km}}$ )时,二者产生协同效应,提高了地铁客流量的预测值。这一结果符合预期。
图 6(b) 展示了小区密度与到 CBD 的距离之间的交互作用最强, 反映了它们的局部交互效应。当距离 $\mathrm{{CBD}}$ 较近且小区密度较大时,两者产生协同效应,并且随着小区密度的增长,协同作用持续增强。
站域建成环境是影响地铁出行的关键因素。深入理解站域建成环境与地铁客流之间的互动关系, 有助于制定合理的城市交通与空间规划, 并为促进高质量 TOD 规划与建设提供理论支撑。本研究基于公共交通智能刷卡数据、POI 数据以及 Open Street Map 等多源大数据,运用机器学习技术(包括随机森林和 SHAP 模型), 定量刻画了成都市地铁客流量与站域建成环境的非线性关联和协同效应。研究结果如下:
1) 站域容积率、就业密度和道路密度是影响地铁客流量最为重要的 3 个建成环境变量。此外, 交叉口密度、出入口数量以及建筑密度等变量也对客流量产生较大影响。
2) 建成环境变量对地铁客流量的影响呈现明显的非线性作用和阈值效应。具体而言, 当容积率、就业密度、道路密度和交叉口密度分别达到 1.3、1.2 万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$${17}\mathrm{\;{km}}/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 和 20 个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 时,其对地铁客流量的影响由负向转变为正向;当就业密度、道路密度和交叉口密度分别达到 3.5 万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$${27}\mathrm{\;{km}}/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 和 25 个 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 后, 其对地铁客流量的影响趋于饱和。这表明: TOD 的综合开发需要充分发挥地铁站点的要素集聚与扩散能力。站域功能设施密度、土地开发强度等需要精细规划, 并设定上限和下限阈值。另外, 对于不同类型的站点, 应根据站域建成环境的特征提出适应性的要素阈值, 以激活站点潜在的地铁使用人群与公共空间的人流活力。
3) SHAP 模型分析结果表明, 各建成环境变量之间存在协同效应。例如,在就业密度大于 1 万人 $/{\mathrm{{km}}}^{2}$ 、 到市中心距离小于 ${14}\mathrm{\;{km}}$ 的情况下,二者呈现协同效应。因此, 站域的建成环境营造不应仅考虑单一要素的客流作用机制, 而需要系统组织空间、交通、功能以及经济等多维要素, 合理安排功能要素的比例与公共资源的分布, 以实现 “人-站-城” 的协同发展。
本研究的主要贡献在于: 运用机器学习模型分析了站域建成环境要素与地铁客流量之间的非线性关联,并且识别了建成环境要素的阈值。引入 SHAP 模型揭示各个建成环境要素对地铁客流量的影响程度以及这些要素之间的协同效应。
通过将可解释机器学习应用于建成环境与地铁客流量的非线性关系和协同效应, 本研究为城市规划部门和交通管理部门提供了有益的探索。研究结论可用于指导优化城市土地利用政策、交通基础设施投资以及轨道交通站域规划。然而, 本文仍存在以下不足之处: 首先, 缺乏对轨交网络中心度、站域共享单车密度以及步行设施质量等相关指标的深入解析。其次, 研究主要使用了地铁全月平均客流量作为因变量, 忽略了时间序列变化可能导致的时间异质性效应。因此, 未来研究可以进一步分析不同时间段(早高峰、平峰、 晚高峰;工作日、周末;节假日、非节假日)建成环境与地铁客流量的互动关系。
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(52278080)
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2024年第37卷第2期
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2024.02.001
  • 接收时间:2023-10-20
  • 首发时间:2025-07-09
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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-20
  • 修回日期:2023-12-13
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52278080)
作者信息
    1 电子科技大学 经济与管理学院 成都 611731
    2 西南交通大学 建筑学院 成都 611756

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杨林川,男,博士,教授,博士生导师,从事交通与土地利用研究,
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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Genus
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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