Article(id=1318999955449171984, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, issueId=1318999770132234870, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2025.05.008, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1744041600000, receivedDateStr=2025-04-08, revisedDate=1751817600000, revisedDateStr=2025-07-07, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1792403695213, onlineDateStr=2026-10-19, pubDate=1760025600000, pubDateStr=2025-10-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792403695213, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-19, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792403695213, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792403695213, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1318999770132234870, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, year='2025', volume='38', issue='5', pageStart='1', pageEnd='158', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1760025600000', pubDateStr='2025-10-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792403651030, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792733338119, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320382578062902170, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, issueId=1318999770132234870, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320382578062902171, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, issueId=1318999770132234870, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=57, endPage=63, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1318999955654692881, articleId=1318999955449171984, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, language=EN, title=Empirical Study of a Multi-Factor Subway Passenger Flow Forecasting Method, columnId=1152669335454658940, journalTitle=Urban Rapid Rail Transit, columnName=Academic Discussion, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To address multi-factor subway line passenger volume forecasting needs, 12 influential features are selected (time, weather, network scale, urban development, holidays, and events) via feature mining and correlation analysis, and—targeting the difficulty of XGBoost hyperparameter tuning—a hyperparameter optimization approach based on the Zebra Optimization Algorithm (ZOA) is proposed. An XGBoost-ZOA integrated forecasting model is developed, a cross-validation scheme tailored for time-series prediction is designed, and a case study is conducted using Xi'an Metro data. The ZOA-optimized model achieves a MAPE of 3.85% on the Line 1 test set; compared with representative intelligent optimization algorithms, it yields the best performance, confirming the algorithm's superiority. Across nine lines, the XGBoost-ZOA model attains an average MAPE of 5.18%, with the maximum error below 7%, and the predicted and actual curves show a high degree of agreement. Compared with SARIMA and LSTM, the MAPE decreases by 17.8% and 21.9%, and the RMSE decreases by 10.8% and 13.6%, respectively. Finally, using feature importance, the nine lines were grouped into three categories: trend-driven, holiday/activity-driven, and multi-factor balanced passenger flows. Lines dominated by holidays/activities exhibit larger prediction errors, whereas those governed by periodic trends show smaller errors, confirming the model's interpretability and practical utility.

, authors=Xuanchuan ZHENG¹, Yong QIN², Jianyuan GUO¹, Xin TONG³, Xiaolin HUANG⁴, authorsList=Xuanchuan ZHENG, Yong QIN, Jianyuan GUO, Xin TONG, Xiaolin HUANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1318999955885379602, articleId=1318999955449171984, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, language=CN, title=基于多因素分析的地铁客流预测方法实证研究, columnId=1152669335668568445, journalTitle=都市快轨交通, columnName=学术探讨, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

面向多因素下地铁线路客运量预测需求，通过特征挖掘、相关性分析，从时间、天气、线网规模、城市发展、节假日及活动等因素选取12项影响特征指标，针对XGBoost模型超参数优化难题，提出基于斑马优化算法（ZOA）的超参数优化算法；构建XGBoost-ZOA组合预测模型，设计时序数据预测的交叉验证方案，并在西安地铁开展实例验证。经ZOA算法优化后的预测模型，在1号线测试集上的预测误差平均误差百分比MAPE为3.85%，与经典的智能优化算法相比其预测效果更佳，证实该算法的先进性。XGBoost-ZOA组合预测模型在9条线路的平均MAPE达到5.18%，最大误差不超过7%，预测值与真实值曲线吻合度较高，同比SARIMA模型及LSTM模型，MAPE分别减少了17.8%及21.9%，均方根误差RMSE分别减少了10.8%及13.6%。最后，基于模型特征重要度，将9条线路分为趋势客流导向、假日活动客流导向和多因素均衡导向3类，发现假日活动主导的线路客流预测误差较大，周期趋势主导的线路客流预测误差较小，证实了该模型的解释性及实用性较好。

, authors=郑宣传¹, 秦勇², 郭建媛¹, 佟鑫³, 黄小林⁴, authorsList=郑宣传, 秦勇, 郭建媛, 佟鑫, 黄小林, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=F6gd8Op5b/XxvEHhJlziaQ==, magXml=F7RAA0RiWsSpBgh0kA4lEw==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=hgBn5yjJamg0IgA/dDSZqw==, pdfFileSize=4431321, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=azyflSQH/ePtERAluNtJZw==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1318999956397084704, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, articleId=1318999955449171984, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=20114089@bjtu.edu.cn, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1318999956480970786, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, articleId=1318999955449171984, authorId=1318999956397084704, language=EN, stringName=Xuanchuan ZHENG, firstName=Xuanchuan, middleName=null, lastName=ZHENG, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=¹, address=^1.School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1318999956548079651, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123302524792850, articleId=1318999955449171984, authorId=1318999956397084704, language=CN, stringName=郑宣传, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=¹, address=^1.北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京　100044, bio={"content":"

郑宣传，男，博士研究生，高级工程师，从事城市轨道交通客流预测及仿真，20114089@bjtu.edu.cn

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郑宣传，男，博士研究生，高级工程师，从事城市轨道交通客流预测及仿真，20114089@bjtu.edu.cn

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