Article(id=1311998375881433345, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, issueId=1311998371833934610, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2604.26034, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1770998400000, receivedDateStr=2026-02-14, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1790734388560, onlineDateStr=2026-09-30, pubDate=1784044800000, pubDateStr=2026-07-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1790734388560, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-09-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1790734388560, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1790734388560, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1311998371833934610, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, year='2026', volume='50', issue='4', pageStart='1017', pageEnd='1326', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1784044800000', pubDateStr='2026-07-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1790734387596, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1790739443587, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1312019578272702984, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, issueId=1311998371833934610, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1312019578272702985, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, issueId=1311998371833934610, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1017, endPage=1032, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1311998376711905541, articleId=1311998375881433345, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, language=EN, title=Impact of Increased Spring Vegetation Cover in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau on the Decadal Change of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China, columnId=1311998374337934099, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, columnName=Articles, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The drivers and mechanisms of the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China have been widely investigated. In this context, the potential impact of vegetation changes on the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its associated processes remain unclear. Using the GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) Leaf Area Index (LAI) dataset and gridded precipitation data over China, this study investigated the relationship between the decadal increase in spring vegetation cover in the QXP and the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China, and the associated mechanism. The results revealed that the late-spring (May) vegetation in the QXP has undergone notable decadal changes around 2010, with LAI anomalies turning from negative to positive. Concurrently, there has been a noticeable decadal change in the summer precipitation over eastern China after 2010, with a shift from wet to dry situations over the Huaihe River basin and South China, and precipitation anomalies turning from negative to positive over Northeast China, North China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. A composite analysis of the changes in the surface energy budget over the QXP and the East Asian summer monsoon circulation showed that, as the vegetation cover in the QXP increased in the late spring after 2010, the net surface shortwave radiation increased in response to the low-albedo characteristics of vegetation, leading to an increase in the surface temperature over the QXP and consequently enhancing the upward surface sensible heat flux. The stronger spring sensible heat flux provides a stronger atmospheric heating source in the subsequent summer, intensifying and extending the South Asian High eastward. This effect is accompanied by the strengthening and westward movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, thereby changing the decadal summer precipitation over eastern China around 2010. Thus, this study has elucidated the important modulating role of vegetation change in the QXP on the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China.

, authors=Zhaohui LIN1, 2, 3, Xuebing GAN1, 2, He ZHANG1, 3, 4, Chenglai WU1, 3, authorsList=Zhaohui LIN, Xuebing GAN, He ZHANG, Chenglai WU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1311998397725368628, articleId=1311998375881433345, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, language=CN, title=青藏高原春季植被覆盖增加对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响研究, columnId=1311998374501511957, journalTitle=大气科学, columnName=论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响因子及其机制已有大量研究,但青藏高原植被变化的可能影响及过程尚不清楚。本文基于GIMMS(Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies)叶面积指数数据及中国区域格点降水等观测资料,分析了青藏高原春季植被年代际增加与中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的关系及影响过程。研究结果表明,青藏高原晚春(5月份)植被覆盖在2010年前后经历了显著的年代际转折,植被叶面积指数异常由偏少转为偏多;与此同时,中国东部夏季降水在2010年前后也发生了一次明显的年代际变化,淮河及华南地区由涝转旱,东北、华北及长江中下游地区的降水则由偏少转为偏多。针对高原地表能量收支及东亚夏季风环流变化的合成分析表明,伴随着2010年后青藏高原晚春植被覆盖的增加,与植被低反照率特性相对应,高原地表净短波辐射增加,有利于高原地表温度升高,从而增强地表向上感热通量。前期春季感热偏强有利于后期夏季大气热源整体偏强,高原上空大气加热增强,有利于南亚高压的增强与东伸,西太平洋副热带高压增强、西伸,从而使得2010年前后中国东部夏季降水发生上述年代际转变。本研究阐明了高原植被变化在年代际尺度上对中国东部夏季降水变化的重要调制作用。

, authors=林朝晖1, 2, 3, 甘雪冰1, 2, 张贺1, 3, 4, 吴成来1, 3, authorsList=林朝晖, 甘雪冰, 张贺, 吴成来, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

林朝晖,男,研究员,主要从事地球系统模式研制与预测应用、大气—陆面—水文相互作用研究。E-mail:

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2中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院, 北京100049
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林朝晖,男,研究员,主要从事地球系统模式研制与预测应用、大气—陆面—水文相互作用研究。E-mail:

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林朝晖,男,研究员,主要从事地球系统模式研制与预测应用、大气—陆面—水文相互作用研究。E-mail:

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Climate Dyn., 36(5-6): 1207−1219. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0863-6, articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1311998399419867446, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311998399726051639, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, companyId=1311998399419867446, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311998399809937720, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, companyId=1311998399419867446, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心, 北京100029)]), AuthorCompany(id=1311998401017897273, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311998401076617531, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, companyId=1311998401017897273, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311998401097589052, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, companyId=1311998401017897273, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院, 北京100049)]), AuthorCompany(id=1311998401504436541, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, xref=3, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311998401835786558, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, companyId=1311998401504436541, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Applications Science Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311998401844175167, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, companyId=1311998401504436541, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟与应用全国重点实验室, 北京100029)]), AuthorCompany(id=1311998403127632192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, xref=4, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311998403500925249, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, companyId=1311998403127632192, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=4Earth System Numerical Simulation Science Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311998403568034114, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, companyId=1311998403127632192, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=4中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟科学中心, 北京100029)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1311998416561987946, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=(a) The spatial distribution of major land cover types over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau; (b) seasonal cycle of leaf area index (LAI, green bars, units: m2 m−2) and snow depth (gray line, units: cm) averaged over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau during 1982–2020; (c) spatial distribution of LAI (units: m2 m−2) averaged in May over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau during 1982–2020., figureFileSmall=z85+UDIvxuoCN/8tRR4xDA==, figureFileBig=o/POlUmw9JAymJ8zlRj4vw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998416977224043, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图1, caption=(a)青藏高原主要土地覆被类型分布;(b)1982~2020年青藏高原区域平均的叶面积指数(LAI,绿色柱状,单位:m2 m−2)及积雪深度(灰色线,单位:cm)的季节循环;(c)1982~2020年平均的5月青藏高原LAI空间分布(单位:m2 m−2)。, figureFileSmall=z85+UDIvxuoCN/8tRR4xDA==, figureFileBig=o/POlUmw9JAymJ8zlRj4vw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998421209276782, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=The time series of (a) LAI anomalies (bars, units: m2 m−2) and 7-year running mean (dashed line, units: m2 m−2) in May, (b) the statistic (Ut) from the Pettitt test over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau during 1982–2020. In Fig. b, the green, blue, and red dashed lines represent the 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1 significance level lines, respectively., figureFileSmall=QqdsR7Hl99jkSvHLHrznxQ==, figureFileBig=LYSTDeW0Jva9e/kn2F7l3g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998421972640112, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图2, caption=1982~2020年青藏高原(a)5月LAI距平(柱状,单位:m2 m−2)及7年滑动平均(虚线,单位:m2 m−2)时间序列,(b)Pettitt检验的统计量(Ut)时间序列,绿、蓝、红虚线分别表示0.01、0.05、0.1显著性水平线。, figureFileSmall=QqdsR7Hl99jkSvHLHrznxQ==, figureFileBig=LYSTDeW0Jva9e/kn2F7l3g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998423813939571, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=The latitude–time cross-section of the 7-year running mean of summer precipitation anomaly percentage averaged over eastern China (105°–125°E) during 2000–2020., figureFileSmall=qKAdcHURrydWsdtOGUdkjw==, figureFileBig=5zBDGZHcwuKqvi1XqBAXBg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998424124318069, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图3, caption=2000~2020年中国东部(105°~125°E)纬向平均的7年滑动平均的夏季降水距平百分率的纬度—时间剖面。, figureFileSmall=qKAdcHURrydWsdtOGUdkjw==, figureFileBig=5zBDGZHcwuKqvi1XqBAXBg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998424543748470, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=The anomalies (units: m2 m−2) of LAI in May over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau for (a) P1 period (2000–2010) and (b) P2 period (2011–2020) relative to climatology (2000–2020), the black dots indicate the anomalies pass the test at 0.1 significance level., figureFileSmall=FEeWrcxo2i0QF3898xlCOw==, figureFileBig=mBssmdKsP89743jPWQw1CQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998425437135223, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图4, caption=(a)P1时段(2000~2010年)、(b)P2时段(2011~2020年)青藏高原5月LAI相对于2000~2020多年平均的距平分布(单位:m2 m−2),黑点表示通过0.1显著性水平的检验。, figureFileSmall=FEeWrcxo2i0QF3898xlCOw==, figureFileBig=mBssmdKsP89743jPWQw1CQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998425810428280, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.5, caption=The anomalies (units: mm d−1) of summer precipitation over eastern China for (a) P1 period (2000–2010) and (b) P2 period (2011–2020) relative to climatology (2000–2020), the black dots indicate the anomalies pass the test at 0.1 significance level., figureFileSmall=rfbenwcb1wWND1IiDwBlmQ==, figureFileBig=xU+jA/wadbAXf0vozQzH5Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998426234052985, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图5, caption=(a)P1时段(2000~2010年)、(b)P2时段(2011~2020年)中国东部夏季降水相对于2000~2020多年平均的距平分布(单位:mm d−1),黑点表示通过0.1显著性水平的检验。, figureFileSmall=rfbenwcb1wWND1IiDwBlmQ==, figureFileBig=xU+jA/wadbAXf0vozQzH5Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998427886608762, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.6, caption=The time series of summer precipitation anomalies (bars, units: mm d−1), mean anomalies (dashed lines, units: mm d−1) for P1 period and P2 period relative to climatology (2000–2020) over the (a) Northeast China (NEC: 40°–55°N, 120°–135°E), (b) North China (NC: 35°–45°N, 110°–120°E), (c) Huaihe River region (HR: 31°–35°N, 110°–123°E), and (d) the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLYR: 27°–31°N, 105°–123°E) in summer (June, July, August) during 2000–2020., figureFileSmall=DgRpBa4hlq9refn0goYGaA==, figureFileBig=4ErbfNfBo1mFFHK/beUfUA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998428360565115, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图6, caption=2000~2020年夏季(6~8月)(a)东北(NEC:40°~55°N, 120°~135°E)、(b)华北(NC:35°~45°N, 110°~120°E)、(c)淮河地区(HR:31°~35°N, 110°~123°E)、(d)长江中下游地区(MLYR:27°~31°N, 105°~123°E)降水量相对于2000~2020多年平均的距平时间序列(柱状,单位:mm d−1)和P1、P2时段的距平均值(黑色虚线,单位:mm d−1)。, figureFileSmall=DgRpBa4hlq9refn0goYGaA==, figureFileBig=4ErbfNfBo1mFFHK/beUfUA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998428763218300, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.7, caption=The decadal differences (P2-P1) of (a) albedo, (b) net surface radiation flux (units: W m−2), (c) surface temperature (unit: ℃), and (d) surface sensible heat flux (units: W m−2) in May over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau, the black dots indicate the differences pass the test at 0.1 significance level. (e) The regional average differences (P2-P1) in May of LAI (May-LAI, units: m2 m−2), Albedo (May-Albedo), net surface shortwave radiation (May-NetSW, units: W m−2), net surface longwave radiation (May-NetLW, units: W m−2), net surface radiation (May-NetRad, units: W m−2), surface sensible heat flux (May-SSHF, units: W m−2), surface latent heat flux (May-SLHF, units: W m−2), surface temperature (May-TS, units: °C), and summer atmospheric heat source (JJA-<Q>, units: W m−2) over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau., figureFileSmall=iLrLKvN+x5MHYXN9y8beOw==, figureFileBig=niIJhnLcWio1sQ1afvenbw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998429279117694, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图7, caption=青藏高原5月(a)反照率、(b)地表净辐射通量(单位:W m−2)、(c)地表温度(单位:°C)、(d)地表感热通量(单位:W m−2)的年代际差异(P2-P1);(e)青藏高原5月LAI(May-LAI,单位:m2 m−2)、反照率(May-Albedo)、地表净短波辐射(May-NetSW,单位:W m−2)、地表净长波辐射(May-NetLW,单位:W m−2)、地表净辐射(May-NetRad,单位:W m−2)、地表感热通量(May-SSHF,单位:W m−2)、地表潜热通量(May-SLHF,单位:W m−2)、地表温度(May-TS,单位:°C)以及夏季整层大气视热源(JJA-<Q>,单位:W m−2)年代际差异(P2-P1)的区域平均值。图a–d中,黑点表示通过显著性水平为0.1的检验。, figureFileSmall=iLrLKvN+x5MHYXN9y8beOw==, figureFileBig=niIJhnLcWio1sQ1afvenbw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998430004732287, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.8, caption=The time series of anomalies (bars) and mean anomalies (dashed line) during P1 and P2 periods relative to climatology (2000–2020) for (a) LAI, (b) albedo, (c) net surface shortwave radiation (NetSW), (d) net surface radiation (NetRad), (e) surface temperature (TS), (f) surface sensible heat flux (SSHF) over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau in May., figureFileSmall=5v9PaltqWb2pCQWmKz0Fug==, figureFileBig=kguH2VhXlzBcCWOjjzgEcg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998430361248128, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图8, caption=青藏高原5月(a)LAI、(b)反照率、(c)地表净短波辐射、(d)地表净辐射、(e)地表温度、(f)地表感热通量相对于2000~2020多年平均的距平(柱状)时间序列和P1、P2时段的距平均值(黑色虚线)。, figureFileSmall=5v9PaltqWb2pCQWmKz0Fug==, figureFileBig=kguH2VhXlzBcCWOjjzgEcg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998430851981698, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.9, caption=The decadal differences between P2 and P1 of (a) surface sensible heat flux (units: W m−2), (b) surface latent heat flux (units: W m−2), pressure–longitude cross-sections of the (c) atmospheric heat source (units: W m−2) and (d) air temperature (units: °C) averaged from 31°N to 35°N in summer over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau. The black dots indicate the statistical significance at 0.1 level. In Figs. c, d, the black shadings represent Qinghai–Xizang Plateau topography., figureFileSmall=QXOJXuwWZG7oynNemO3k2g==, figureFileBig=+O/g5f3QEmtEFuq45dXRIw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998432164798851, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图9, caption=青藏高原夏季(a)地表感热通量(单位:W m−2)、(b)地表潜热通量(单位:W m−2),31°~35°N经向平均的(c)大气视热源(单位:W m−2)、(d)温度(单位:°C)垂直剖面的年代际差异(P2-P1)。黑点表示通过0.1显著性水平的检验。图c、d中,黑色阴影表示青藏高原地形。, figureFileSmall=QXOJXuwWZG7oynNemO3k2g==, figureFileBig=+O/g5f3QEmtEFuq45dXRIw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998432248684932, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.10, caption=The geopotential height (shadings, units: dagpm) and wind (vectors, units: m s−1) of (a, d) climatology (2000–2020), (b, e) anomalies for P1 and (c, f) anomalies for P2 at (a–c) 100 hPa, (d–f) 500 hPa in summer. The “A” (“C”) denotes anomalous anticyclonic (anomalous cyclonic). The blue dashed line represents the climatological characteristic line, the red solid lines represent the characteristic lines of P1 and P2., figureFileSmall=p8XGB7brtLOuAzJMsvyILQ==, figureFileBig=AWTUShvjNZdGv5JWb1wwrw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998432601006470, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图10, caption=夏季(a–c)100 hPa、(d–f)500 hPa位势高度场(彩色阴影,单位:dagpm)和风场(箭头,单位:m s−1)的(a、d)2000~2020多年平均、(b、e)P1时段异常、(c、f)P2时段异常。A(C)表示反气旋(气旋)异常,蓝色虚线表示气候态的特征线,红色实线表示P1、P2时段的特征线。, figureFileSmall=p8XGB7brtLOuAzJMsvyILQ==, figureFileBig=AWTUShvjNZdGv5JWb1wwrw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998433427284359, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=EN, label=Fig.11, caption=(a–c) The geopotential height (shadings, units: dagpm) and wind (vectors, units: m s−1) at 850 hPa, (d–f) the vertical integral of water vapor flux (vectors, units: kg m−1 s−1) and vertical integral of water vapor flux divergence [shadings, units: 10−5 kg m−2 s−1, the positive (negative) value indicates divergence (convergence)] of (a, d) climatology (2000–2020), (b, e) anomalies for P1, and (c, f) anomalies for P2 in summer. The “A” (“C”) denotes anomalous anticyclonic (anomalous cyclonic)., figureFileSmall=Z3dgD42YF7DRn1JP+oeb1Q==, figureFileBig=+/dhcWMJdP3OTOFSDcFNRQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311998433762828680, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1311385791232049272, articleId=1311998375881433345, language=CN, label=图11, caption=夏季(a–c)850 hPa位势高度场(彩色阴影,单位:dagpm)和风场(箭头,单位:m s−1),(d–f)整层水汽通量垂直积分(箭头,单位:kg m−1 s−1)和水汽通量散度垂直积分[彩色阴影,单位:10−5 kg m−2 s−1,正(负)值表示辐散(辐合)]的(a、d)2000~2020多年平均、(b、e)P1时段异常场、(c、f)P2时段异常场。A(C)表示反气旋(气旋)异常。, figureFileSmall=Z3dgD42YF7DRn1JP+oeb1Q==, figureFileBig=+/dhcWMJdP3OTOFSDcFNRQ==, tableContent=null)], attaches=null, journal=Journal(id=1311385095715782771, delFlag=0, nameCn=大气科学, nameEn=Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, issn=1006-9895, eissn=null, cn=11-1768/O4, coden=null, periodic=1, language=CN, oaType=null, ccby=null, superviseOffice=null, ownerOffice=null, pubOffice=null, editorOffice=null, officeType=null, 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青藏高原春季植被覆盖增加对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响研究
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林朝晖 1, 2, 3 , 甘雪冰 1, 2 , 张贺 1, 3, 4 , 吴成来 1, 3
大气科学 | 论文 2026,50(4): 1017-1032
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大气科学 |论文 2026 , 50 (4) : 1017 -1032
青藏高原春季植被覆盖增加对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响研究
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林朝晖1, 2, 3 , 甘雪冰1, 2, 张贺1, 3, 4, 吴成来1, 3
作者信息
  • 1中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心, 北京100029
  • 2中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院, 北京100049
  • 3中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟与应用全国重点实验室, 北京100029
  • 4中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟科学中心, 北京100029
作者简介:

林朝晖,男,研究员,主要从事地球系统模式研制与预测应用、大气—陆面—水文相互作用研究。E-mail:

Impact of Increased Spring Vegetation Cover in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau on the Decadal Change of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China
Zhaohui LIN1, 2, 3 , Xuebing GAN1, 2, He ZHANG1, 3, 4, Chenglai WU1, 3
Affiliations
  • 1International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
  • 2College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
  • 3State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Applications Science Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
  • 4Earth System Numerical Simulation Science Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
出版时间: 2026-07-15 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2604.26034
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中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响因子及其机制已有大量研究,但青藏高原植被变化的可能影响及过程尚不清楚。本文基于GIMMS(Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies)叶面积指数数据及中国区域格点降水等观测资料,分析了青藏高原春季植被年代际增加与中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的关系及影响过程。研究结果表明,青藏高原晚春(5月份)植被覆盖在2010年前后经历了显著的年代际转折,植被叶面积指数异常由偏少转为偏多;与此同时,中国东部夏季降水在2010年前后也发生了一次明显的年代际变化,淮河及华南地区由涝转旱,东北、华北及长江中下游地区的降水则由偏少转为偏多。针对高原地表能量收支及东亚夏季风环流变化的合成分析表明,伴随着2010年后青藏高原晚春植被覆盖的增加,与植被低反照率特性相对应,高原地表净短波辐射增加,有利于高原地表温度升高,从而增强地表向上感热通量。前期春季感热偏强有利于后期夏季大气热源整体偏强,高原上空大气加热增强,有利于南亚高压的增强与东伸,西太平洋副热带高压增强、西伸,从而使得2010年前后中国东部夏季降水发生上述年代际转变。本研究阐明了高原植被变化在年代际尺度上对中国东部夏季降水变化的重要调制作用。

春季植被覆盖  /  夏季降水  /  年代际变化  /  青藏高原

The drivers and mechanisms of the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China have been widely investigated. In this context, the potential impact of vegetation changes on the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its associated processes remain unclear. Using the GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) Leaf Area Index (LAI) dataset and gridded precipitation data over China, this study investigated the relationship between the decadal increase in spring vegetation cover in the QXP and the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China, and the associated mechanism. The results revealed that the late-spring (May) vegetation in the QXP has undergone notable decadal changes around 2010, with LAI anomalies turning from negative to positive. Concurrently, there has been a noticeable decadal change in the summer precipitation over eastern China after 2010, with a shift from wet to dry situations over the Huaihe River basin and South China, and precipitation anomalies turning from negative to positive over Northeast China, North China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. A composite analysis of the changes in the surface energy budget over the QXP and the East Asian summer monsoon circulation showed that, as the vegetation cover in the QXP increased in the late spring after 2010, the net surface shortwave radiation increased in response to the low-albedo characteristics of vegetation, leading to an increase in the surface temperature over the QXP and consequently enhancing the upward surface sensible heat flux. The stronger spring sensible heat flux provides a stronger atmospheric heating source in the subsequent summer, intensifying and extending the South Asian High eastward. This effect is accompanied by the strengthening and westward movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, thereby changing the decadal summer precipitation over eastern China around 2010. Thus, this study has elucidated the important modulating role of vegetation change in the QXP on the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China.

Spring vegetation cover  /  Summer precipitation  /  Decadal change  /  Qinghai–Xizang Plateau
林朝晖, 甘雪冰, 张贺, 吴成来. 青藏高原春季植被覆盖增加对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响研究. 大气科学, 2026 , 50 (4) : 1017 -1032 . DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2604.26034
Zhaohui LIN, Xuebing GAN, He ZHANG, Chenglai WU. Impact of Increased Spring Vegetation Cover in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau on the Decadal Change of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2026 , 50 (4) : 1017 -1032 . DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2604.26034
中国东部夏季降水及其异常对防灾减灾、区域社会经济发展和人民生活具有重要的影响。已有研究表明,中国东部夏季降水呈现多时间尺度变化特征,除季节变化和年际变化外,还具有明显的年代际变化(Ding et al., 2008; Liu et al., 2011; Xu et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2023)。在20世纪70年代中后期,中国东部夏季降水经历了一次显著的年代际变化,华北及华南地区降水由多雨转为少雨,长江地区则由少雨转为多雨;90年代初中国东部夏季雨带南移,长江以南地区整体偏涝(Ding et al., 2008; 邓伟涛等, 2009; 黄荣辉等, 2011);在90年代末21世纪初也发生了一次显著的年代际变化(Zhu et al., 2011; Huang et al., 2013; Wang and Li, 2019)。Ren et al.(2017)的研究发现,中国东部夏季降水在2009年前后呈现出明显的年代际变化特征。
理解中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响因子及其物理机制,是准确预测我国夏季旱涝异常的科学基础。许多学者研究了海温对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响,包括太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)(Liu et al., 2023; Chen et al., 2024)、北大西洋年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO)(Zhu et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2025)以及印度洋海盆模态(Indian Ocean Basin Mode,IOBM)(Liu J P et al., 2019)等。PDO可以通过热带遥相关(如,太平洋—日本或东亚—太平洋)的经向波列(Qian and Zhou, 2014; 吕俊梅等, 2014),以及在AMO调制下通过中高纬度遥相关波列(Si and Ding, 2016)影响中国东部夏季降水的年代际变化。除此,PDO还可以调节西风急流(Zhu Y L et al., 2015)和西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)(Yu et al., 2015)的强度,从而影响中国东部夏季降水。AMO可以通过遥相关波列影响东亚季风环流,进而影响我国东部夏季降水的年代际变化(Fan et al., 2019; Si et al., 2021)。除了受全球海温的影响外,中国东部夏季降水的年代际变化还受到其他因子的影响(Ding et al., 2009)。例如,冬季北极涛动可以通过减小海陆热力差异使得东亚夏季风发生年代际减弱,导致长江流域降水年代际增多(Ju et al., 2005; 吕俊梅等, 2014);春季北极海冰通过遥相关波列影响中国东部夏季降水的年代际变化(吕俊梅等, 2014; Qian et al., 2023)。此外,土地利用、温室气体和人为气溶胶的变化也对中国东部夏季降水的年代际变化产生影响(Zhang et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2021)。
青藏高原作为“地球第三极”,其强大的动力和热力作用极大地影响了东亚气候格局、亚洲季风进程和北半球大气环流(叶笃正和张捷迁, 1974; Wu et al., 2015)。已有研究表明,青藏高原下垫面特征对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化具有重要的调控作用(段安民等, 2018; Wang and Li, 2019),其中冬春积雪的影响受到了广泛的关注(Chen and Wu, 2000; Si and Ding, 2013; Zhu Y X et al., 2015)。青藏高原冬春积雪的年代际增加,通过降低地表温度削弱高原热源,减小海陆热力差异使得东亚夏季风减弱,并改变西太副高的强度和位置,从而影响中国东部夏季降水的年代际变化(朱玉祥等, 2007; Ding et al., 2009)。
植被是青藏高原的重要下垫面,在春季伴随着地表温度的升高和积雪融化,植被开始显著生长,覆盖度较高的东部区域在5月份左右进入生长季(Yu et al., 2010; Zhang et al., 2013; Shen et al., 2022)。已有研究发现,高原植被可通过调节地表的感热、潜热通量影响高原加热,调制高原下游以及东亚的大气环流,进而影响下游区域的气候异常(Zhang et al., 2011; Fang et al., 2024)。在年代际尺度上,Wang et al.(2010)利用1982~1999年的植被覆盖资料,从植被反馈和大气环流变化的角度指出青藏高原春季植被异常对同期中国东部降水具有重要影响。已有研究表明,高原春季感热异常等非绝热加热的影响,可以持续到夏季,导致更强的大气热源,从而对中国东部夏季降水产生重要的影响(Duan et al., 2005, 2013, 2020; Liu et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2014)。鉴于植被特有的低反照率、强蒸散发等特征,春季高原植被覆盖异常通过改变地气间的能量交换,直接影响高原加热异常(Hua et al., 2008; Zuo et al., 2011),但青藏高原春季植被异常对中国东部夏季降水的可能影响及其机理尚不清楚。
已有的卫星遥感反演资料分析表明,近二十多年来在气候变暖背景下,青藏高原植被覆盖呈现出总体增加的特征(Zhang et al., 2017; Zhong et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2022; Li et al., 2024)。为此,本文将基于GIMMS(Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies)叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index,LAI)植被数据集,以及我国格点降水资料数据集,考察青藏高原春季植被覆盖增加与我国东部夏季降水年代际变化的可能关系,在此基础上探讨高原春季植被异常对我国东部夏季降水影响的过程和机理。本文的第二节主要介绍了数据与方法;第三节给出了青藏高原春季植被与中国东部夏季降水的年代际变化关系;第四节从能量收支、大气环流等方面分析高原春季植被增加对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响过程;第五节为论文总结与讨论。
青藏高原地形复杂,有关植被生态长时间序列的台站观测稀少,卫星遥感产品成为监测高原植被动态变化的主要途径(Shen et al., 2014)。本文研究中主要采用了GIMMS的LAI4g V1.2植被叶面积指数资料,该资料基于像素随机森林融合方法合并了AVHRR(Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer)和MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)数据。已有基于地面实测LAI和Landsat LAI的验证表明,GIMMS LAI4g数据集总体具有较高的精度,它有效消除了卫星轨道漂移和传感器退化的影响,在2000年前后表现出良好的时间一致性,以及合理的全球植被变化趋势(Cao et al., 2023a, 2023b)。GIMMS LAI4g V1.2植被叶面积指数资料的空间分辨率为(1/12)°×(1/12)°,时间分辨率为半个月,资料时段为1982~2020年。我们基于最大值合成法(Huang et al., 2016; Liu L B et al., 2019)将其处理成逐月数据。高原植被类型分布及变化的数据来自MODIS/Terra+Aqua的MCD12C1 V061土地覆被类型逐年数据,其空间分辨率为0.05°×0.05°,包括草地、常绿针叶林等11种类型(Friedl and Sulla-Menashe, 2022)。
本文使用的观测降水资料为CN05.1逐月降水格点资料,该资料基于2400余个中国地面气象站观测资料插值而得,其空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°(吴佳和高学杰, 2013)。为分析青藏高原植被与积雪随温度的变化,本文还采用了国家青藏高原科学数据中心(https://data.tpdc.ac.cn [2025-09-20])的中国雪深长时间序列数据集,空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°,该数据集已经在积雪变化、水文研究及模式评估等方面得到了广泛应用(Che et al., 2008, 2015; Dai et al., 2015, 2017)。
对于地表的反照率、净太阳辐射(短波辐射)、净热辐射(长波辐射)、感热通量、潜热通量及地表温度这些陆面变量,本文采用ERA5-Land月平均再分析资料,其空间分辨率为0.1°×0.1°(Muñoz-Sabater et al., 2021)。已有分析表明ERA5-Land可有效地纠正ERA-Interim对于青藏高原感热通量和潜热通量的高估(Xin et al., 2022)。对于位势高度、水平风场、水汽通量垂直积分以及水汽通量散度垂直积分这些环流变量,本文使用ERA5逐月数据,空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°(Hersbach et al., 2020)。
针对青藏高原大气视热源(Q)的估算,本文基于ERA5再分析资料提供的逐小时水平风场、垂直速度和温度数据(Hersbach et al., 2020),将其处理为逐日数据,并基于热力学方程采用倒算法计算而得(Yanai et al., 1973, 1992)。计算公式为
$ Q={c}_{p}\left[\frac{\partial T}{\partial t}+\boldsymbol{V}\cdot \nabla T+{\left(\frac{p}{{p}_{0}}\right)}^{k}\omega \frac{\partial \theta }{\partial p}\right] , $
其中,T为温度;V为水平风矢量;$ \theta $为位温,$ \theta =T{\left({p}_{0}/p\right)}^{k} $;$ \omega $为p坐标的垂直速度;$ k=R/{c}_{p} $,R和cp分别为干空气气体常数和定压比热;p0为1000 hPa。垂直积分得整层大气视热源:
$ \left\langle Q\right\rangle =\frac{1}{g}\int \limits_{{p}_{\text{t}}}^{{p}_{\text{s}}}Q\text{d}p , $
其中,$ \left\langle Q\right\rangle $为整层垂直积分大气视热源(单位:W m−2),ps和pt分别地面气压和大气顶气压(取100 hPa)。
本文先计算夏季逐日的大气视热源,再计算得到夏季平均。为便于分析,除土地覆盖类型数据保留原始分辨率外,其余所有数据统一双线性插值成0.25°×0.25°空间分辨率。本文使用7年滑动平均滤除年际变化信号,得到年代际信号(Zhu et al., 2011),并基于Pettitt突变检验方法分析可能存在的突变点。Pettitt突变检验是一种非参数检验方法,可以检测时间序列中最显著的突变点(Pettitt, 1979; Mallakpour and Villarini, 2016)。
图1给出了青藏高原土地覆被类型、植被叶面积指数(LAI)的空间分布,以及高原区域平均LAI和积雪深度的季节循环。从图1a可以发现,青藏高原植被主要分布在高原的南部及东部,类型以草地为主。高原植被与积雪的季节循环(图1b)显示,春季随着温度的升高,积雪逐渐融化,植被开始生长,尤其在5月份LAI具有明显的增长。这与前人指出的高原植被覆盖度较高的东部区域在5月左右进入生长季的结论对应(Yu et al., 2010; Zhang et al., 2013; Shen et al., 2022)。因此本文我们以5月份来表征高原晚春植被的变化,并分析其与中国东部夏季降水异常的关系。从图1c中可以看到,与高原土地覆被对应,高原晚春植被覆盖从东南向西北逐渐减少,在高原西北区域LAI为0,与高原裸土下垫面相对应。
图2给出了1982~2020年青藏高原区域平均LAI距平的逐年变化及7年滑动平均结果,以及相应的突变检验。如图2a所示,近四十年青藏高原晚春LAI异常存在明显的年代际变化,经历了“负—正—负—正”的距平转变,尤其在2010年前后年代际差异的幅度显著。进一步针对LAI距平的7年滑动平均序列做Pettitt突变检验,可以发现青藏高原的植被覆盖在2010年存在显著的突变点,通过0.01显著性水平的检验(图2b)。这说明青藏高原晚春植被在2010年前后存在显著的年代际变化。
为探究青藏高原春季植被在2010年前后发生的变化与中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的关系,我们进一步分析了中国东部夏季降水的变化。图3给出了中国东部(105°~125°E)夏季降水(7年滑动平均)距平百分率的纬度—时间剖面。从图3可以发现,中国东部夏季降水在2010年前后也存在一次显著的年代际转折,其中华北及长江中下游地区的降水由2010前的年代际偏少转为2010年后的年代际偏多,而淮河流域则由年代际偏多转为偏少,这与Ren et al.(2017)的结论一致。以上结果表明,青藏高原晚春植被和中国东部夏季降水均在2010年前后发生了显著的年代际转变。
在本文后面的年代际差异分析中,我们以2010年作为分段点,将2000~2020年分成两个时段,其中2000~2010年为第一个时段(简称为P1时段),2011~2020年为第二个时段(简称为P2时段)。
图4a、b分别给出了P1和P2时段青藏高原晚春植被叶面积指数距平的空间分布。结果显示在P1时段与青藏高原区域平均的LAI负距平相对应,高原植被覆盖整体呈年代际偏少,P2时段则整体偏多,表明青藏高原植被在2010年后整体增加,尤其是在青藏高原东部地区。P1和P2时段中国东部夏季降水距平分布如图5a、b所示,在P1时段华南及淮河地区呈降水正距平,东北、华北及长江中下游地区呈显著降水负距平。而在P2时段,华南及淮河上游地区转变为负距平,东北、华北及长江中下游地区转为显著的正距平。
针对发生显著转变的东北(NEC:40°~55°N,120°~135°E)、华北(NC:35°~45°N,110°~120°E)、淮河(HR:31°~35°N,110°~123°E)及长江中下游地区(MLYR:27°~31°N,105°~123°E),本文进一步分析了这四个子区域夏季降水的变化。图6给出了这四个子区域的夏季降水距平时间序列,结果显示从P1到P2时段,它们均有明显的年代际转折,东北、华北及长江中下游地区由负距平向正距平转变,淮河地区则相反。
以上结果表明青藏高原晚春植被在2010年前后呈现出显著的年代际变化,叶面积指数异常从P1时段的负距平转变到P2时段的正距平。而在2010年前后,中国东部夏季降水也发生了一次明显的年代际转折,东北、华北及长江中下游地区的降水异常由偏少转为偏多,而淮河流域地区则由涝转旱。这表明青藏高原前期春季植被与后期夏季中国东部降水异常在2010年前后都存在显著的年代际转折。
植被具有低反照率、强蒸散发等特征,因此能够通过改变地气之间能量交换影响高原加热。为此本节将从高原地气的能量收支以及东亚夏季风环流的角度,探讨高原春季植被增加对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的可能影响过程。
图7a–d展示了青藏高原5月反照率、净辐射、地表温度及感热通量的年代际差异空间分布。从图7a可以看到,对应青藏高原晚春植被的增加,青藏高原大部分区域反照率降低,尤其在东部植被密集区。较低的反照率将减少反射出去的太阳辐射,使得地表净短波辐射增加,进而导致地表吸收的净辐射增加。从图7b可以看到高原净辐射整体增加,其中东部增加显著,这有利于青藏高原地表温度升高,并增强向上的感热通量。图7c和图7d分别显示了高原地表温度的升高及向上感热通量的增强。图7e给出了青藏高原LAI、反照率及辐射通量等变量的年代际差异区域平均值。可以看到,高原5月LAI平均增加0.0375 m2 m−2,反照率减小0.01。地表净辐射通量平均增加2.51 W m−2,这主要是由于净短波的增加(4.26 W m−2)而非长波(减小1.76 W m−2),且潜热通量变化较小(0.19 W m−2),增加的净辐射通量主要分配给了感热(2.08 W m−2),这说明晚春植被的反照率效应主导了地表温度的升高,增强了向上感热通量。
图8进一步给出了2000~2020年高原晚春植被与反照率、净短波等地表热变量的时间序列。结果显示在P2时段,植被覆盖年代际偏多,LAI为正异常,对应高原地表反照率呈现年代际偏低;高原地表净短波辐射、净辐射、地表温度及感热通量均呈正距平。这些结果说明高原地表热变量与植被的年代际变化具有较好的一致性。
已有分析表明,青藏高原春季强感热的影响可以持续到夏季,导致随后夏季大气热源整体偏强(Duan et al., 2005, 2013),其特征是青藏高原西部感热增加和东部潜热增加(Wang et al., 2014)。为此本文进一步分析夏季青藏高原感热和潜热的变化,图9a和图9b分别给出了P2和P1时段,青藏高原夏季地表感热、潜热通量的年代际差异,结果显示在P2时段(2011~2020年)夏季高原西部感热增加、东部潜热增加,且图7e的年代际差异均值也显示了夏季高原整层大气视热源偏强,这与Wang et al.(2014)的研究结果一致。图9c、d分别给出了青藏高原31°~35°N夏季经向平均大气视热源、温度的垂直剖面。从图9c可以看到,夏季高原西部向上的感热通量增加使得上空大气视热源增强,而东部地表潜热通量增加,有利于地表水汽向上输送,并通过凝结潜热释放进一步增强高层大气视热源,加热高层大气。夏季高原温度的垂直剖面图(图9d)进一步显示了高层温度的明显升高,从而直接影响高层的南亚高压系统。
图10a为夏季100 hPa环流场气候态,可以看到在青藏高原上空存在一个巨大的反气旋系统(南亚高压),高原北侧为中纬度西风带,南侧为低纬度东风带,本文以1675 dagpm作为南亚高压的特征线。图10b和图10c分别给出了P1、P2时段的100 hPa环流异常场。在P2时段与高原加热偏强对应,南亚高压偏强且东伸(图10c);P1时段则偏弱且西退(图10b)。
已有研究结果表明南亚高压与西太副高之间存在“相向而行、相背而去”的关系(陶诗言和卫捷, 2006; Jiang et al., 2011; Zhu et al., 2023)。由图10d可以看到,在西太平洋上空存在一个反气旋系统,对应西太副高,我们以588 dagpm作为西太副高的特征线。图10e和图10f分别给出了P1、P2时段的500 hPa环流异常场,结果显示在P2时段当南亚高压偏强且东伸时,西太副高对应偏强且西伸(图10f),P1则相反(图10e),这与前人的结论一致。进一步结合风场异常分析可知,当南亚高压偏强且东伸时,高层100 hPa从华南到西太平洋上空存在反气旋异常(图10c),这将激发中层500 hPa华南及西太平洋上空出现反气旋异常(图10f),导致西太副高的增强且西伸,这与Wei et al.(2019)的研究结论一致。
前人的工作指出南亚高压增强且东伸与西太副高增强且西伸的环流配置有利于长江流域降水偏多(Ning et al., 2017; Li et al., 2021; Zhu et al., 2023)。从夏季低层850 hPa环流场(图11a)及整层水汽输送场(图11d)的气候态分布可以看到,中国东部夏季的水汽主要来自西南水汽输送及西太平洋的水汽输送。图11c为P2时段850 hPa环流异常场,可以看到与西太副高偏强对应,低层西太平洋存在反气旋异常,此时长江中下游及华北、东北地区存在气旋异常有利于低层辐合上升。结合P2时段整层水汽输送异常场(图11f)可以看到,长江中下游及华北、东北地区对应存在水汽辐合异常,动力及水汽条件均有利于该区域的降水,而淮河及华南地区则存在水汽辐散异常,不利于降水产生。图11b和图11e分别给出了P1时段850 hPa环流及整层水汽输送的异常场,结果显示与P2时段相反,对应西太副高偏弱,低层西太平洋存在气旋异常,华北、东北及长江中下游地区存在反气旋异常对应低层辐散下沉,同时配合水汽辐散异常,降水偏少,而淮河及华南地区则存在水汽辐合异常,有利于降水产生。
本文基于GIMMS-LAI植被数据及中国区域格点降水等观测资料,考察了青藏高原春季植被增加与中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的可能关系,并在此基础上探讨了高原春季植被异常对中国东部夏季降水影响的过程和机理。结果显示,青藏高原晚春(5月份)植被叶面积指数在2010年前后呈现出显著的年代际变化,叶面积指数异常在2010年左右从负距平转变为正距平。而中国东部夏季降水也在2010年前后发生了一次明显的年代际转折,淮河及华南地区由涝转旱,东北、华北及长江中下游地区的降水异常则由偏少转为偏多。
基于高原地表能量收支及东亚夏季大气环流的年代际差异合成分析,本文给出了2010年前后青藏高原春季植被年代际增加对中国东部夏季降水年代际转变的影响过程。研究表明,伴随着2010年后青藏高原晚春植被的增加,地表反照率降低,地表净吸收的短波辐射增加,进而增加地表吸收的净辐射,使得地表温度升高,增强地表向上的感热通量。前期春季感热通量的偏强,会导致后期夏季大气热源整体偏强,其特征是高原西部感热增加、东部潜热增加,显著加热高层大气,使得南亚高压增强并东伸,有利于西太副高增强并西伸。在该环流配置下,东北、华北及长江中下游地区存在低层辐合异常,有利于上升运动,并配合水汽辐合异常有利于降水产生,而淮河及华南地区则存在水汽辐散异常,不利于降水产生。
以往针对青藏高原影响中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的研究大多集中在冬春积雪(朱玉祥等, 2007; 段安民等, 2018),尤其是冬季积雪(Chen and Wu, 2000; Si and Ding, 2013),对春季植被影响的研究相对较少。植被作为青藏高原地气相互作用的重要环节,伴随着全球变化下高原的增暖,春季温度上升,积雪融化,植被覆盖也必然发生显著的变化。本文从高原春季植被异常变化的角度,阐明2010年前后青藏高原晚春植被的年代际增加是中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的重要影响因子之一,表明青藏高原晚春植被的变化是青藏高原春季前期温度升高、积雪融化的重要桥梁,可有效存储高原前期热源异常的信号,进而影响到后期夏季中国东部气候及其异常。
此外,已有研究表明近几十年中国东部植被覆盖显著增加(Sun et al., 2020),而夏季植被增加可通过局地陆气相互作用,增强地表蒸散发,使得华北地区温度降低,同时通过增强该区域的水汽通量辐合使得华北地区降水增加(Yu et al., 2020, 2021),这说明中国东部夏季植被变化对同期局地气候的影响亦不可忽视。中国东部春季植被对后期夏季中国东部降水的年代际变化是否存在影响,其过程和机理如何,也有待未来进一步研究。

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doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2604.26034
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    1中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心, 北京100029
    2中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院, 北京100049
    3中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟与应用全国重点实验室, 北京100029
    4中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟科学中心, 北京100029
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