Article(id=1190684596388901876, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, issueId=1190684594115589101, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25712, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1710950400000, receivedDateStr=2024-03-21, revisedDate=1717257600000, revisedDateStr=2024-06-02, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1761810929629, onlineDateStr=2025-10-30, pubDate=1745078400000, pubDateStr=2025-04-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1761810929629, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1761810929629, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1761810929629, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1190684594115589101, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, year='2025', volume='55', issue='4', pageStart='3', pageEnd='96', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1761810929087, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1761811258832, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1190685977225081530, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, issueId=1190684594115589101, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1190685977225081531, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, issueId=1190684594115589101, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=82, endPage=90, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1190684596640560118, articleId=1190684596388901876, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, language=EN, title=Research on Fusion Prediction of Transformer Top Oil Temperature Based on ELM and Thermal Model, columnId=null, journalTitle=Electric Drive, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

A fusion prediction method was proposed to predict and correct the calculation deviation of the top transformer oil temperature model in IEEE guideline,so as to realize the more precise prediction of the transformer top oil temperature(TOT).Firstly,the characteristics of the transformer TOT model and the extreme learning machine(ELM) prediction model was introduced. Secondly,in order to avoid the problem of slow operation speed caused by double level intelligent prediction,the weighted multi-point extrapolation method combined with the load curve clustering algorithm was used to obtain the future load coefficient of the transformer which introduced as the load prediction level of the model. Finally,based on the calculation of thermal model,which the ELM was used to predict the deviation between the calculated value of thermal model and the measured value,and finally the accurate predicted value of the TOT of the transformer was obtained.The simulation platform was built and the simulation results show that the average prediction error rate of the proposed prediction method is only 0.59%,and the root mean square error is only 0.47 ℃. Compared with the other three methods,it has higher prediction accuracy and stability. The model training speed and prediction speed are only 1.21 ms and 0.39 ms,respectively,which proves that the fusion prediction model proposed and established has high prediction accuracy,stability and operation speed.

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提出一种采用极限学习机对IEEE导则中的变压器顶层油温热模型计算偏差进行预测和修正,从而实现对变压器顶层油温精确预测的融合预测方法。首先,介绍了变压器顶层油温热模型和极限学习机预测模型各自的特性。其次,为避免采用两级智能预测导致运算速度慢的问题,采用加权多点外推法结合负荷形态聚类算法预测变压器未来时段负载系数,作为模型的负荷预测级。最后,利用变压器顶层油温热模型获取相应的油温计算值,并利用极限学习机对计算值与实测值间的偏差进行预测,最终得到变压器顶层油温的精确预测值。搭建了仿真模型对所提方法进行了验证,仿真结果表明,所提预测方法平均预测误差率仅为0.59%,均方根误差仅为0.47 ℃,相比其他3种方法有更高的预测精度和稳定性,模型训练和预测时间分别只有1.21 ms和0.39 ms,证明了所提出和建立的融合预测模型具有较高的预测精度、稳定性和运算速度。

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晏坤(1988—),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为电网调度与运行维护、电力负荷预测技术,Email:

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晏坤(1988—),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为电网调度与运行维护、电力负荷预测技术,Email:

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晏坤(1988—),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为电网调度与运行维护、电力负荷预测技术,Email:

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label=Fig.4, caption=Transformer TOT prediction model by ELM, figureFileSmall=5ifOlmme3jrwotKwEvO/xg==, figureFileBig=Q2LF8dMbBNwyKUF2VqnXsQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1191113302609637398, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, articleId=1190684596388901876, language=CN, label=图4, caption=ELM变压器顶层油温预测模型, figureFileSmall=5ifOlmme3jrwotKwEvO/xg==, figureFileBig=Q2LF8dMbBNwyKUF2VqnXsQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1191113302680940567, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, articleId=1190684596388901876, language=EN, label=Fig.5, caption=Transformer TOT fusion prediction model by TOTM-ELM, figureFileSmall=+hQ+UTMMSwa2XqM9LAOvKg==, figureFileBig=xVqjjFmGKbxxSyzwiZSN8A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1191113302748049432, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, articleId=1190684596388901876, language=CN, label=图5, caption=TOTM-ELM变压器顶层油温融合预测模型, figureFileSmall=+hQ+UTMMSwa2XqM9LAOvKg==, 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Transformer operating parameters

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参数 数值 参数 数值
额定容量 180/180/90 MV·A 油顶层温升 55 K
电压组合 220±8×1.25%/115.5/10.5 kV 绕组温升 65 K
额定电流 472/900/4 950 A 高压侧负荷电流 325 A
冷却方式 ODAF - -
), ArticleFig(id=1191113303788236838, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, articleId=1190684596388901876, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

变压器运行参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数 数值 参数 数值
额定容量 180/180/90 MV·A 油顶层温升 55 K
电压组合 220±8×1.25%/115.5/10.5 kV 绕组温升 65 K
额定电流 472/900/4 950 A 高压侧负荷电流 325 A
冷却方式 ODAF - -
), ArticleFig(id=1191113303851151399, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189987059142926344, articleId=1190684596388901876, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Performance comparisons of four test prediction models

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预测方法 θmax/℃ RMSE/℃ MAPE/% tT/ms tF/ms
TOTM-ELM 0.67 0.47 0.59 0.65 0.09
TOTM-Elman 1.49 0.51 1.78 339.22 16.31
ELM 1.69 1.81 2.30 0.52 0.07
Elman 1.74 2.17 2.74 90.49 11.62
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4种测试预测模型的性能对比

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预测方法 θmax/℃ RMSE/℃ MAPE/% tT/ms tF/ms
TOTM-ELM 0.67 0.47 0.59 0.65 0.09
TOTM-Elman 1.49 0.51 1.78 339.22 16.31
ELM 1.69 1.81 2.30 0.52 0.07
Elman 1.74 2.17 2.74 90.49 11.62
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基于ELM与热模型的变压器顶层油温融合预测方法研究
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晏坤 1 , 甘景福 1 , 刘洪顺 2 , 隋宜臻 2 , 贺鹏康 3
电气传动 | 可靠性与诊断 2025,55(4): 82-90
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电气传动 | 可靠性与诊断 2025, 55(4): 82-90
基于ELM与热模型的变压器顶层油温融合预测方法研究
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晏坤1 , 甘景福1, 刘洪顺2, 隋宜臻2, 贺鹏康3
作者信息
  • 1 国网冀北电力有限公司唐山供电公司,河北 唐山 063000
  • 2 山东大学 电气工程学院,山东 济南 250061
  • 3 华北电力大学 电力工程系,河北 保定 071000
  • 晏坤(1988—),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为电网调度与运行维护、电力负荷预测技术,Email:

Research on Fusion Prediction of Transformer Top Oil Temperature Based on ELM and Thermal Model
Kun YAN1 , Jingfu GAN1, Hongshun LIU2, Yizhen SUI2, Pengkang HE3
Affiliations
  • 1 State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co.,Ltd. Tangshan Power Supply Company,Tangshan 063000,Hebei,China
  • 2 School of Electrical Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,Shandong,China
  • 3 Department of Electrical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071000,Hebei,China
出版时间: 2025-04-20 doi: 10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25712
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提出一种采用极限学习机对IEEE导则中的变压器顶层油温热模型计算偏差进行预测和修正,从而实现对变压器顶层油温精确预测的融合预测方法。首先,介绍了变压器顶层油温热模型和极限学习机预测模型各自的特性。其次,为避免采用两级智能预测导致运算速度慢的问题,采用加权多点外推法结合负荷形态聚类算法预测变压器未来时段负载系数,作为模型的负荷预测级。最后,利用变压器顶层油温热模型获取相应的油温计算值,并利用极限学习机对计算值与实测值间的偏差进行预测,最终得到变压器顶层油温的精确预测值。搭建了仿真模型对所提方法进行了验证,仿真结果表明,所提预测方法平均预测误差率仅为0.59%,均方根误差仅为0.47 ℃,相比其他3种方法有更高的预测精度和稳定性,模型训练和预测时间分别只有1.21 ms和0.39 ms,证明了所提出和建立的融合预测模型具有较高的预测精度、稳定性和运算速度。

变压器顶层油温  /  极限学习机  /  热模型  /  融合预测  /  负荷形态聚类

A fusion prediction method was proposed to predict and correct the calculation deviation of the top transformer oil temperature model in IEEE guideline,so as to realize the more precise prediction of the transformer top oil temperature(TOT).Firstly,the characteristics of the transformer TOT model and the extreme learning machine(ELM) prediction model was introduced. Secondly,in order to avoid the problem of slow operation speed caused by double level intelligent prediction,the weighted multi-point extrapolation method combined with the load curve clustering algorithm was used to obtain the future load coefficient of the transformer which introduced as the load prediction level of the model. Finally,based on the calculation of thermal model,which the ELM was used to predict the deviation between the calculated value of thermal model and the measured value,and finally the accurate predicted value of the TOT of the transformer was obtained.The simulation platform was built and the simulation results show that the average prediction error rate of the proposed prediction method is only 0.59%,and the root mean square error is only 0.47 ℃. Compared with the other three methods,it has higher prediction accuracy and stability. The model training speed and prediction speed are only 1.21 ms and 0.39 ms,respectively,which proves that the fusion prediction model proposed and established has high prediction accuracy,stability and operation speed.

transformer top oil temperature(TOT)  /  extreme learning machine(ELM)  /  thermal model  /  fusion prediction  /  load morphology clustering
晏坤, 甘景福, 刘洪顺, 隋宜臻, 贺鹏康. 基于ELM与热模型的变压器顶层油温融合预测方法研究. 电气传动, 2025 , 55 (4) : 82 -90 . DOI: 10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25712
Kun YAN, Jingfu GAN, Hongshun LIU, Yizhen SUI, Pengkang HE. Research on Fusion Prediction of Transformer Top Oil Temperature Based on ELM and Thermal Model[J]. Electric Drive, 2025 , 55 (4) : 82 -90 . DOI: 10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25712
变压器是电力系统中的重要变电设备,其运行状态直接关乎电网的安全稳定。变压器绕组热点温度直接影响绕组的绝缘寿命,因此对于热点温度的预测和控制具有重要意义。不同变压器的绕组热点位置不尽相同,难以直接安装传感器进行有效测量,而变压器顶层油温(top oil temperatures,TOT)与绕组热点温度密切相关且易于测量,结合IEEE等给出的绕组热点温度模型可以间接得到热点温度的预测值,变压器顶层油温还能客观反映变压器内部是否有缺陷以及散热系统是否正常,因此针对变压器顶层油温进行预测,可以为控制和改善变压器运行状态提供依据[1-3]
目前针对变压器顶层油温以及热点温度预测业内众多专家学者已开展许多富有成效的研究。文献[4]研究了一种基于Kalman滤波算法的变压器顶层油温预测方法,该方法基于IEEE/ANSI C57.115负载导则给出的变压器顶层油温模型构建Kalman滤波预测模型,相比直接采用原始模型预测提高了预测精度,但由于该研究中的观测值为实测值,因此仅能预测下一时刻的油温值。文献[5]提出一种基于核极限学习机与Susa热模型的变压器顶层油温融合预测模型,该模型首先利用Susa热路模型进行油温预测,并使用核极限学习机对其预测误差进行预测,最终实现对变压器顶层油温的精确预测。文献[6]提出一种基于粒子群优化的混合核极限学习机变压器顶层油温度预测模型,该模型采用粒子群算法进行模型的训练和核函数的优化,实现对预测油温正、负误差的不同处理,使模型的预测油温误差始终为正值,提高了预测精度和稳定性。文献[7]对比了IEEE给出的变压器顶层油温模型以及Swift模型和Susa模型,考虑到这些模型的非线性特点,采用支持向量机进行输入输出之间的非线性映射。对比结果显示,对于油浸自冷(ONAN)变压器,Susa模型预测效果更好;而对于强油风冷(OFAF/ODAF)变压器,改进的IEEE模型预测效果更好。虽然目前智能算法理论上可达到很高的预测精度,但不能揭示输入输出之间的物理关系,且预测结果高度依赖样本的选取,若样本中存在干扰数据,将得不到准确的计算模型和预测结果;而传统的IEEE顶层油温预测模型优点是具有明确的物理意义,其正确性已经经过大量实践检验,是一个相对准确的计算模型,但由于模型经过简化处理,并且仅考虑了变压器负载系数以及环境温度两个参数,因此该模型的预测精度一般。
为了结合现代智能算法和传统油温模型的优点,本文基于IEEE负载导则中改进的的变压器顶层油温热模型(top-oil temperatures model,TOTM),采用极限学习机(extreme learning machine,ELM)对该模型的计算误差进行预测和修正,并同时考虑了天气、风速和湿度3个环境参数的影响。为避免负荷、油温预测采用两级智能预测算法造成的运算效率低的问题,文中提出采用加权多点外推算法作为负荷预测级,并采用负荷形态聚类算法对负荷数据进行筛选和分类提高该算法的预测精度。文中建立了基于ELM和IEEE导则变压器顶层油温模型的融合预测模型(TOTM-ELM),并搭建了算例仿真模型对所提方法进行验证。
油浸式变压器通过内部绝缘油实现对绕组及铁心等内部元件的散热和冷却作用,因此变压器油温直接反映了内部热点温度的变化情况[8-10]。变压器油温主要受环境温度及变压器负载系数影响,它随时间而连续变化,因此变压器顶层油温升可表示为末态温升关于初态温升的一阶微分方程,微分方程可表示为
τ T d ϑ T d t = ϑ T + ϑ T , U
其中
ϑ T , U = ϑ T , R ( K 2 R + 1 R + 1 ) n
式中:τT为变压器的油时间常数;ϑT为任意时刻的顶层油对环境温度的温升;ϑT,U为变压器顶层油温的末态温升;ϑT,R为额定损耗下顶层油稳态温升;R为额定电流下负载损耗与空载损耗的比值;K为负载系数;n为总损耗对变压器顶层油温升的指数幂,对于强油风冷变压器,该值取1[11]
将式(1)中的微分方程求解可得到变压器顶层油温升随时间变化的函数:
ϑ T = ( ϑ T , U ϑ T , I ) ( 1 e t / τ T ) + ϑ T , I
式中:ϑT,I为变压器顶层油温的初态温升。
当变压器参数确定时,若不考虑环境温度对散热性能的影响,根据式(3)可得到变压器顶层油温升与初始油温、时间和负载系数间的四维函数图如图1所示。
变压器轻载到过载几种不同负载率情况下的变压器顶层油温升三维曲面图如图2所示。
根据图2中油温升函数图像可知,负载系数越大,末态油温升越高,且最终会达到平衡,此时温升不再随着时间而变化,绝缘油受热和散热达到动态平衡。若考虑到环境温度的动态影响,可提高油温模型的预测准确度,将环境温度θA作为变量直接引入到微分方程中,任意时刻的变压器顶层油温θT的微分方程为
τ T d θ T d t = θ T + θ T , U + θ A
式中:θT为任意时刻的变压器顶层油温度;θT,U为变压器顶层油温的末态温度。
变压器实际运行过程中,油温数据以离散的时间序列上传和存储,因此运用后向欧拉法对式(4)进行离散化处理,变压器顶层油温的后向欧拉公式为
d θ T . k d t = θ T . k θ T . k 1 Δ t
式中:Δt为离散数据的采样间隔;k为离散时间序列的序号。
微分方程经离散化处理后为
θ T . k = τ T τ T + Δ t θ T . k 1 + θ T . R Δ t τ T + Δ t [ ( K 2 R + 1 R + 1 ) n + θ A . k θ T . R ]
变压器顶层油温升的数学模型揭示了油温与负载及环境温度之间的规律,因此具有明确的物理意义,但针对不同冷却方式的变压器,该模型预测精度差异较大。但对于强油风冷变压器,由于变压器顶层油温对于环境温度的变化更快速复杂,该模型相比Susa模型和Swift模型更准确[7]
极限学习机基于前馈神经网络发展而来,与传统神经网络不同的是其输入层与隐含层间的连接权值人为设定或随机选取,而仅更新隐含层与输出层间的权值,只需设置隐含层神经元个数就可获得唯一最优解,该方法具有运算速度快,泛化性能好的特点,因此近年来已应用于负荷预测和故障诊断等领域,并取得了很好的应用效果[12-14]
极限学习机的网络结构如图3所示。
极限学习机的输入输出数学模型可表示为如下式所示:
Y = F ( H β ) H = f ( X α + σ )
式中:XY分别为神经网络的输入向量和输出向量;αβ分别为输入层与隐含层、隐含层与输出层之间的连接权值;σ为隐含层神经元的阈值;H为隐含层的输出;fF分别为隐含层及输出层的激活函数。
当隐含层数量与样本数量一致时,H为可逆方阵,因此可根据式(7)解出隐含层输出的连接权值,此时得到的权值可使极限学习机零误差拟合输入输出间的映射函数。但很多情况下隐藏神经元数量小于输入个数,此时需要构建目标的损失函数 β ^,求取使损失函数C最小的解来得到最优权值。 β ^C的计算式如下:
β ^ = a r g β m i n | | C | | F C = 1 N n = 1 N | | F ( H β ) Y | |
式中:N为样本的数量;C为输出与目标间的损失函数。
根据式(8)可得到输出权值的最小二乘解如下式所示:
β ^ = H T ( I λ + H H T ) F 1 Y
式中:λ为惩罚系数;I为单位对角阵;F-1为输出层激活函数F的反函数。
为了使ELM输入参数的影响作用不取决于参数的量纲和数值尺度差异,需对输入参数S进行归一化处理,min-max 归一化方法公式为
S ^ = S S m a x S m a x S m i n
式中:SminSmax分别为输入参数的最小值和最大值。
基于ELM可构建变压器顶层油温预测模型,目前ELM油温预测输入参数较多是依据变压器油温热模型确定的,仅选取负载系数和环境温度两个变量,预测模型如图4所示。相比IEEE导则的热模型,ELM预测模型预测精度更高,且适用于所有冷却方式的变压器。
变压器的IEEE导则顶层油温热模型揭示了输入输出之间的关系,具有明确的物理意义,但预测的针对性和精度较差,未考虑影响其散热性能的温湿度以及风速等参数[15-16];ELM智能预测方法准确度较高,适用范围广,但缺乏明确的物理意义,目前基于ELM建立的预测模型其输入参数多基于传统油温模型选取,尚需进一步优化。本文结合两种预测方法的优点,建立变压器的顶层油温热模型和ELM偏差预测的短时顶层油温融合预测模型,利用智能算法来改善传统算法的预测精度。TOTM-ELM变压器顶层油温融合预测模型如图5所示,在实际应用中,为了预测未来某段时间的油温θT.P,需首先预测得到这一时段的变压器负荷LP,由于油温预测级引入了智能算法,若负荷预测级也采用智能算法将导致模型复杂程度高,数据训练耗时长,导致融合预测模型运算效率低。为了解决这一问题,本文负荷预测级采用基于负荷形态聚类算法的加权多点外推算法,引入负荷形态聚类算法来处理历史负荷数据L,获取不同类别的负荷曲线和对应的聚类中心,再通过将预测时段之前的负荷数据与聚类中心对比,获得预测日的相似日负荷曲线,从而保证负荷预测级有较高的预测精度和运算速度。
负荷预测完成后,可根据预测时段的负荷系数KP、环境温度θA以及初始油温θT.I代入到变压器顶层油温模型中得到对应时段的顶层油温计算值θT.C。油温预测级ELM输入参数除采用IEEE导则油温模型中的环境温度θa、负荷LP两项变量外,本文考虑到天气、风速和湿度对变压器散热效率影响较大,因此将预测时段的天气量化值W、风速VW、湿度H也作为ELM油温预测模型输入级参数,另外两个输入变量为变压器顶层油温计算值θT.C以及实测顶层油温值θT.M,输入级共包含上述7个要素作为ELM预测模型的输入来预测油温计算值的偏差θT.E,相比单独采用智能算法预测,融合预测模型输入级扩展了一个变压器顶层油温计算值的输入维度,而根据热模型的定义可知该计算值比较平滑,因此不仅能减小负荷数据中干扰数据的影响,而且输入维度的扩展也能提升预测模型的准确性和稳定性。TOTM-ELM融合预测模型的输出为最终顶层油温预测值θT.PθT.P为根据导则油温模型计算值与ELM预测的油温计算偏差之和,即
θ T . P = θ T . C + θ T . E
通过负荷数据的聚类可将具有相同特征的负荷曲线归为一类,从而得到相似日负荷数据。同时,聚类分析还可对负荷曲线中停电、检修和方式调整等因素造成的异常数据进行辨识和剔除,确保样本均可用且获最优分类,从而提高负荷预测准确度[17-19]。曲线的聚类是一种基于形态差异的分类方法,为了对负荷曲线形状进行精确分类,本文采用负荷数据与聚类中心间的方差代替欧氏距离作为聚类指标,能够更加精确地获得负荷曲线的分类[20]。定义两条曲线的方差函数为
G ( L 1 , L 2 ) = [ ( L 1 L 2 ) 1 N d ( L 1 L 2 ) ] 2 / N d
式中:L1L2为两条负荷曲线;Nd为负荷曲线上采样点的数量。
聚类中心在原基础上进行形态修正,其更新公式为
L O = L O + [ ( L C L O ) ] / I C
式中:IC为聚类中心LO代表的分类中的负荷曲线数量;LC为其中的负荷曲线。
静态k-means聚类算法对于样本可能的分类数k需要提前设定,k值设定依赖于个人经验或通过数据样本密度的粗略观察来得到,难以确定最优的聚类个数[21-23]。动态k-means聚类算法引入一个参数μ来衡量各类别的类内聚合度及类间分离度,该参数越小时则代表聚类结果达到最优,μ的计算公式为
μ = D a / D r D a = 1 I n = 1 N c G ( L C n , L O n ) D r = m i n G ( L O n 1 , L O n 2 )
式中:I为样本负荷曲线的数量;Da为平均类内方差;Dr为最小类间方差;LOnLCn分别为当聚类数为Nc个时,其中第n个聚类中心和该聚类中心包含的曲线;LOn1LOn2为当聚类数为Nc个时,其中任意两个不同的聚类中心。
基于负荷曲线形态相似性的特点,在已知预测初始点的负荷值以及历史若干相似日负荷曲线数据时,由当前负荷可推知下一个点的负荷数据。多点外推法进行超短期负荷预测在相似日曲线可靠时具有很高的预测精度,且该方法运算量小易于实现,相对于智能算法能极大提升模型运算速度,能够避免采用两级智能算法导致模型运算效率低下的问题[24-25]
预测日负荷曲线L0上第i点负荷可表示为第i-a点负荷与对应的预测增量之和:
L 0 ( i ) = L 0 ( i a ) + Δ L ( i a ) a [ 1 , N a ]
式中:Na为选取的外推负荷点的数量。
预测增量可通过选取的相似日负荷曲线对应预测时刻的增量来获取,且不同日期及时段的数据对于预测的重要程度不同,因此需对数据采用不同的权值。相似日与预测日的相似程度有差异,对不同相似日按相似程度引入一个负荷权重 ξ b,可提高相似程度较高的相似日负荷影响程度;预测点的相对前一点的负荷增量值往往具有最大的参考价值,而越远离预测点的负荷增量值参考价值越小,为了体现这一点,对不同负荷点得到的预测值引入权值 γ a。利用前n个点与当前预测点的增量得到n个预测值,最后取平均值,加权多点外推预测公式为
L 0 ( i ) = a = 1 N a γ a { L 0 ( i a ) + b = 1 N b ξ b [ L b ( i ) L b ( i a ) ] } a = 1 N a γ a = 1 b = 1 N b ξ b = 1
式中:Nb为选取的相似日负荷曲线的数量。
采用一台型号为SFPSZ10-180000/220型油浸式变压器实测数据进行分析和验证,主变参数如表1所示,历史数据为每间隔5 min采集一个数据点。
对该变压器一组实测日负荷曲线首先进行归一化和平滑处理,如图6所示。然后进行聚类分析,辨识并筛出样本中的异常负荷曲线,负荷聚类结果如图7所示。
图7可知经负荷聚类后,历史负荷数据被分为形态不同的7类,同时异常负荷数据被筛出不被采用。基于上述相似日负荷数据进行多点外推负荷预测,预测结果如图8所示。算例中对某400 min时段包含的80个连续数据点进行预测,预测值与实际值吻合度很高,预测误差均值仅为1.69%。
该主变某一周内2 000组运行数据如图9所示,其中80%的数据作为训练集,20%的数据作为验证集。建立TOTM-ELM融合预测模型,设置10组实验并通过控制变量法来确定隐含层节点数量,选取误差最小的隐含层节点数,最终确定ELM网络中隐含层节点数为11个,激活函数为sigmod函数。
利用IEEE导则变压器顶层油温模型得到的油温计算值及上述融合模型得到的预测值对比如图10所示。由算例结果可知单独运用TOTM热模型得到的变压器顶层油温计算值与实际值偏差较大,最大偏差值为2.86 ℃,最大偏差率达到7.67%,平均误差率为4.56%;而融合预测方法中,ELM偏差预测很好地实现了对IEEE物理计算模型计算偏差的预测,经过ELM对模型计算值偏差的修正,油温平均预测误差率降低至0.58%。
为了进一步验证TOTM-ELM误差修正融合预测模型的性能,基于相同的历史样本数据和仿真平台分别单独采用ELM模型、单独采用Elman神经网络模型及采用Elman网络和油温热模型误差修正融合预测模型进行变压器顶层油温预测和对比,预测结果及误差图如图11所示。
为了综合分析上述4种预测模型的性能,预测精度采用最大绝对误差值(θmax)、均方根绝对误差值(RMSE)、平均误差率(MAPE)进行评估;运算速度采用训练时间(tT)和预测时间(tF)进行评估,对比结果如表2所示。由预测结果可知,TOTM-ELM模型相比直接预测模型有更高的预测精度和稳定性,该模型最大预测误差仅为0.67 ℃,均方根绝对误差为0.47 ℃,平均误差率为0.59%,预测精度各项参数均为4种方法中最佳,而TOTM-Elman模型预测性能也优于单独ELM,Elman算法,说明混合模型相比单一模型具有更高的预测精度和稳定性。TOTM-ELM模型训练时间仅0.65 ms,预测时间0.09 ms,仅次于ELM预测模型的0.52 ms和0.07 ms,这是由于本文所提方法增加了IEEE导则计算油温值作为混合模型的输入,扩展了输入维度,导致运算时间略有延长,但在所采用的样本规模下,两种方法运算时间均为ms级,均远快于基于Elman网络的模型,且基于ELM网络的两种模型运算时间差距较小,而基于Elman网络的两种模型差距较大,说明ELM网络运算速度受样本规模影响较小。
1)TOTM-ELM模型中负荷预测采用基于负荷形态聚类的加权多点外推算法,该算法短时负荷预测运算速度快,预测误差仅为1.69%,可作为变压器顶层油温融合预测模型的前置预测级,在保证预测精度的同时可避免采用两级智能预测算法时模型运算效率低的问题。
2)融合预测模型相比单独机器学习预测模型在输入级扩展了油温计算值这一输入变量,TOTM-ELM融合预测模型的最大预测误差和均方根误差分别仅为0.67 ℃和0.47 ℃,平均误差率为0.59%,小于TOTM-Elman,ELM,Elman这3种模型。而TOTM-Elman模型预测性能也优于单独ELM,Elman模型,说明融合预测模型相比单一模型具有更高的预测精度和稳定性。
3)TOTM-ELM融合模型训练时间和预测时间仅为0.65 ms和0.09 ms,不及ELM模型但远小于TOTM-Elman,Elman模型。因此TOTM-ELM模型相比其他3种模型兼顾了预测精度、稳定性以及运算速度。
  • 国家电网有限公司科技项目(5201031801CR)
  • 国网唐山供电公司科技项目(B3010322000N)
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2025年第55卷第4期
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doi: 10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25712
  • 接收时间:2024-03-21
  • 首发时间:2025-10-30
  • 出版时间:2025-04-20
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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-21
  • 修回日期:2024-06-02
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国家电网有限公司科技项目(5201031801CR)
国网唐山供电公司科技项目(B3010322000N)
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    1 国网冀北电力有限公司唐山供电公司,河北 唐山 063000
    2 山东大学 电气工程学院,山东 济南 250061
    3 华北电力大学 电力工程系,河北 保定 071000
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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