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Research on Reliability Growth Prediction of Aerospace Products based on AMSAA Model
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Lin HU1, Hecheng WU2
Missiles and Space Vehicles | 2025, 48(1) : 42 - 50
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Missiles and Space Vehicles | 2025, 48(1): 42-50
Launch Vehicle and Missile
Research on Reliability Growth Prediction of Aerospace Products based on AMSAA Model
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Lin HU1, Hecheng WU2
Affiliations
  • 1Wuxi Vocational College of Science and Technology,Wuxi,214028
  • 2Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,211106
Published: 2025-02-25 doi: 10.7654/j.issn.2097-1974.20250106
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Based on the AMSAA model, which is centered on the failure data of the same or similar products collected during the R&D stage, the principle of minimization of discrete coefficients is innovatively introduced as an optimization criterion, which is used to guide the selection of goodness-of-fit test statistics. After integrating multivariate information such as mean and variance, a new algorithm for solving the time-environmental folding coefficients is constructed, aiming at effectively folding the original failure data and then accurately estimating various parameters of the model. By solving the resulting folding coefficients, the one-sided lower confidence limits of MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) are calculated one by one for each of the 10 different confidence settings when the product design is being molded. Example studies show that when the confidence interval is between 0.9 and 0.99, the method consistently produces better results than the existing literature regardless of the same confidence level, i.e., the accuracy of the method is significantly improved for predicting the reliability growth of aerospace products. In addition, the values of the time-environment folding coefficients solved by the improved method do not change at different confidence levels, i. e., the quantitative relationship between the environmental stresses and the real environmental stresses for each test item does not change due to the increase in confidence level, which also proves that the improved method is closer to the engineering practice from another perspective.

development test  /  fault data  /  AMSAA model  /  time-environment conversion coefficient  /  reliability growth
Lin HU, Hecheng WU. Research on Reliability Growth Prediction of Aerospace Products based on AMSAA Model[J]. Missiles and Space Vehicles, 2025 , 48 (1) : 42 -50 . DOI: 10.7654/j.issn.2097-1974.20250106
Year 2025 volume 48 Issue 1
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doi: 10.7654/j.issn.2097-1974.20250106
  • Receive Date:2024-06-18
  • Online Date:2025-07-21
  • Published:2025-02-25
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  • Received:2024-06-18
  • Revised:2025-01-01
Affiliations
    1Wuxi Vocational College of Science and Technology,Wuxi,214028
    2Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,211106
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
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Number of
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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