Article(id=1322940843597890333, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322940717152215106, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.317, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1720108800000, receivedDateStr=2024-07-05, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793343276166, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1744646400000, pubDateStr=2025-04-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793343276166, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793343276166, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793343276166, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322940717152215106, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2025', volume='45', issue='4', pageStart='331', pageEnd='440', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1744646400000', pubDateStr='2025-04-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793343246019, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793343246019, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=331, endPage=338, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322940844357059358, articleId=1322940843597890333, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Time-Varying Analysis and Prediction of Geocentric Motion, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

This paper uses the time series of the geocentric motion provided by the Center for Space Research at the University of Texas at Austin as experimental data. First, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is applied to the data for noise reduction. Then, fast Fourier transform (FFT) and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) are utilized to perform frequency domain transformation, power spectrum analysis, and extraction of periodic terms. Finally, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and exponential smoothing method are employed to forecast the geocentric motion for the next 20 months. The results indicate that the amplitude and phase of the annual term extracted using FFT are quite close to previous studies on the geocentric motion. The ARIMA model provides better predictions for the Y-direction motion of the geocentric motion over the next 20 months, while exponential smoothing method offers more accurate predictions for the X and Z directions.

, authors=Erhu WEI1, Junjie WU1, Yunlong ZHANG2, Yile LUO1, Xiancai ZOU1, Xiaojing TIAN3, Jingnan LIU4, authorsList=Erhu WEI, Junjie WU, Yunlong ZHANG, Yile LUO, Xiancai ZOU, Xiaojing TIAN, Jingnan LIU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

WEI Erhu, PhD, professor, PhD supervisor, majors in space geodesy and navigation, E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322940854830236503, articleId=1322940843597890333, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=地心运动的时变分析与预报, columnId=1322506169105633839, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=现代大地测量, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

以美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心提供的地心运动时间序列为实验数据,首先采用经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition, EMD)对数据进行降噪处理;然后利用快速傅里叶变换(fast Fourier transform, FFT)和连续小波变换(continuous wavelet transform, CWT)对该数据进行频域转换、功率谱分析和周期项提取;最后采用自回归积分滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型和指数平滑法对未来20个月的地心运动进行预报。结果表明,利用FFT提取的周年项的振幅和相位与以往的地心运动研究较为接近;ARIMA模型对于Y方向20个月内的地心运动预测结果较好,指数平滑法对X、Z方向的地心运动预测结果更优。

, authors=魏二虎1, 吴俊杰1, 张云龙2, 罗一乐1, 邹贤才1, 田晓静3, 刘经南4, authorsList=魏二虎, 吴俊杰, 张云龙, 罗一乐, 邹贤才, 田晓静, 刘经南, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

魏二虎, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事空间大地测量与导航研究, E-mail:

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caption=指数平滑法Z方向预测结果, figureFileSmall=PjbXfktJlF3PRsn/czQ6hg==, figureFileBig=18Gbk7Zc6wMbKfW4yNK28g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322940876779029459, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=EN, label=Fig. 18, caption=Power spectral density results, figureFileSmall=N+52qVpEzuz4sKGY0oQH8g==, figureFileBig=z4PS3WUfl8zit1lE+eH0ww==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322940877055853524, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=CN, label=图18, caption=功率谱密度计算结果, figureFileSmall=N+52qVpEzuz4sKGY0oQH8g==, figureFileBig=z4PS3WUfl8zit1lE+eH0ww==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322940877135545303, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=EN, label=Tab. 1, caption=

RMSE and SNR of denoised data

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地心运动方向 RMSE/mm SNR/dB
X 1.880 9 3.887 4
Y 1.431 6 7.029 6
Z 3.566 4 3.777 8
), ArticleFig(id=1322940877475283928, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

降噪数据的均方根误差和信噪比

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地心运动方向 RMSE/mm SNR/dB
X 1.880 9 3.887 4
Y 1.431 6 7.029 6
Z 3.566 4 3.777 8
), ArticleFig(id=1322940877559170009, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=EN, label=Tab. 2, caption=

Time-frequency characteristics in different directions

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地心运动方向 频率/Hz 周期/d 振幅/mm
X 0.002 732 2 366 3.17
0.002 641 2 378 2.42
0.002 914 4 343 1.97
9.107 5×10-5 10 980 1.82
0.005 555 6 180 1.52
Y 0.002 732 2 366 5.68
0.002 823 3 354 4.28
0.001 821 5 549 2.57
0.006 010 9 166 1.01
9.107 5×10-5 10 980 0.94
Z 0.001 821 5 549 5.32
0.001 730 4 577 4.94
0.002 732 2 366 3.97
9.107 5×10-5 10 980 3.46
0.005 555 6 180 2.86
), ArticleFig(id=1322940877903102938, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

不同方向的时频特征

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地心运动方向 频率/Hz 周期/d 振幅/mm
X 0.002 732 2 366 3.17
0.002 641 2 378 2.42
0.002 914 4 343 1.97
9.107 5×10-5 10 980 1.82
0.005 555 6 180 1.52
Y 0.002 732 2 366 5.68
0.002 823 3 354 4.28
0.001 821 5 549 2.57
0.006 010 9 166 1.01
9.107 5×10-5 10 980 0.94
Z 0.001 821 5 549 5.32
0.001 730 4 577 4.94
0.002 732 2 366 3.97
9.107 5×10-5 10 980 3.46
0.005 555 6 180 2.86
), ArticleFig(id=1322940877978600411, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=EN, label=Tab. 3, caption=

The characteristics of annual variations derived from different studies

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
测量方法 X方向振幅/mm X方向相位/(°) Y方向振幅/mm Y方向相位/(°) Z方向振幅/mm Z方向相位/(°)
GPS OBP GRACE[5] 2.1 242 3.4 144 2.6 207
SLR[6] 2.6 225 3.1 137 5.5 205
SLR[7] 2.3 ±0.2 290.7±5.7 1.0 ±0.3 135 ±19 0.8 ±0.2 -235±10
CHAMP[8] -2.1 3.2 3.1
GPS网平移法[9] 5.0 ±0.2 307±6 1.0±0.3 66 ±16 6.2±0.3 330±8
ECCO[9] 3.41 297 4.88 294 3.67 331
本文 3.17 248 5.68 297 5.32 240
), ArticleFig(id=1322940878372864988, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

不同研究得出的周年变化特征

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
测量方法 X方向振幅/mm X方向相位/(°) Y方向振幅/mm Y方向相位/(°) Z方向振幅/mm Z方向相位/(°)
GPS OBP GRACE[5] 2.1 242 3.4 144 2.6 207
SLR[6] 2.6 225 3.1 137 5.5 205
SLR[7] 2.3 ±0.2 290.7±5.7 1.0 ±0.3 135 ±19 0.8 ±0.2 -235±10
CHAMP[8] -2.1 3.2 3.1
GPS网平移法[9] 5.0 ±0.2 307±6 1.0±0.3 66 ±16 6.2±0.3 330±8
ECCO[9] 3.41 297 4.88 294 3.67 331
本文 3.17 248 5.68 297 5.32 240
), ArticleFig(id=1322940878712603613, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=EN, label=Tab. 4, caption=

Frequency, period, amplitude of annual variations

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地心运动方向 频率/Hz 周期/d 振幅/mm
X 0.002 77 360 1.59
Y 0.002 77 360 1.79
Z 0.002 77 360 2.53
), ArticleFig(id=1322940878775518174, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322940843597890333, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

周年变化的频率、周期、振幅

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地心运动方向 频率/Hz 周期/d 振幅/mm
X 0.002 77 360 1.59
Y 0.002 77 360 1.79
Z 0.002 77 360 2.53
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地心运动的时变分析与预报
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魏二虎 1 , 吴俊杰 1 , 张云龙 2 , 罗一乐 1 , 邹贤才 1 , 田晓静 3 , 刘经南 4
大地测量与地球动力学 | 现代大地测量 2025,45(4): 331-338
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大地测量与地球动力学 |现代大地测量 2025 , 45 (4) : 331 -338
地心运动的时变分析与预报
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魏二虎1 , 吴俊杰1, 张云龙2, 罗一乐1, 邹贤才1, 田晓静3, 刘经南4
作者信息
  • 1 武汉大学测绘学院, 武汉市珞喻路129号, 430079
  • 2 中国铁路设计集团有限公司, 天津市岷江路10号, 300251
  • 3 自然资源部大地测量数据处理中心, 西安市友谊东路334号, 710054
  • 4 武汉大学卫星导航定位技术研究中心, 武汉市珞喻路129号, 430079
作者简介:

魏二虎, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事空间大地测量与导航研究, E-mail:

Time-Varying Analysis and Prediction of Geocentric Motion
Erhu WEI1 , Junjie WU1, Yunlong ZHANG2, Yile LUO1, Xiancai ZOU1, Xiaojing TIAN3, Jingnan LIU4
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
  • 2 China Railway Design Corporation, 10 Minjiang Road, Tianjin 300251, China
  • 3 Geodetic Data Processing Center, MNR, 334 East-Youyi Road, Xi'an 710054, China
  • 4 GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
  • WEI Erhu, PhD, professor, PhD supervisor, majors in space geodesy and navigation, E-mail:

出版时间: 2025-04-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.317
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以美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心提供的地心运动时间序列为实验数据,首先采用经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition, EMD)对数据进行降噪处理;然后利用快速傅里叶变换(fast Fourier transform, FFT)和连续小波变换(continuous wavelet transform, CWT)对该数据进行频域转换、功率谱分析和周期项提取;最后采用自回归积分滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型和指数平滑法对未来20个月的地心运动进行预报。结果表明,利用FFT提取的周年项的振幅和相位与以往的地心运动研究较为接近;ARIMA模型对于Y方向20个月内的地心运动预测结果较好,指数平滑法对X、Z方向的地心运动预测结果更优。

地心运动  /  快速傅里叶变换  /  连续小波变换  /  ARIMA  /  指数平滑法

This paper uses the time series of the geocentric motion provided by the Center for Space Research at the University of Texas at Austin as experimental data. First, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is applied to the data for noise reduction. Then, fast Fourier transform (FFT) and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) are utilized to perform frequency domain transformation, power spectrum analysis, and extraction of periodic terms. Finally, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and exponential smoothing method are employed to forecast the geocentric motion for the next 20 months. The results indicate that the amplitude and phase of the annual term extracted using FFT are quite close to previous studies on the geocentric motion. The ARIMA model provides better predictions for the Y-direction motion of the geocentric motion over the next 20 months, while exponential smoothing method offers more accurate predictions for the X and Z directions.

geocentric motion  /  fast Fourier transform  /  continuous wavelet transform  /  ARIMA  /  exponential smoothing method
魏二虎, 吴俊杰, 张云龙, 罗一乐, 邹贤才, 田晓静, 刘经南. 地心运动的时变分析与预报. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025 , 45 (4) : 331 -338 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.317
Erhu WEI, Junjie WU, Yunlong ZHANG, Yile LUO, Xiancai ZOU, Xiaojing TIAN, Jingnan LIU. Time-Varying Analysis and Prediction of Geocentric Motion[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2025 , 45 (4) : 331 -338 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.317
地心运动是指地球系统的质心(center of mass, CM)相对于固体地球表面的形状中心(center of figure, CF)的运动。由于地球系统无时无刻不在发生着变化,地表质量,包括大气、海洋、冰川、陆地水等,不断交换、迁移,这些运动导致地球的CF与CM时刻处于相对运动中。精确地估计地心运动不仅可以反映地球质量的变化,而且对于实现与维持基于CM的参考框架具有重要意义。
当前,空间大地测量系统均依托于国际地球参考框架(international terrestrial reference frame, ITRF)进行定位和测量。地心运动的振幅仅为mm级,在过去,由于观测精度的限制,这种微小的地心运动误差在基于ITRF的空间大地测量中并不显著。然而,随着科技的进步,多种技术已经能够精确检测到地心运动,使得这些微小的变动对于精密测量的影响变得不可忽视。
对于地心运动,国内外学者进行了许多研究。秦显平等[1]利用卫星激光测距(SLR)观测数据,计算一组相对于ITRF2000参考框架原点的地心运动序列,并分析地心运动的平均值、变化速率和周期分量。Kang等[2]采用直接方法,基于低地球轨道卫星的GNSS和SLR跟踪数据来确定地心运动。赵德军等[3]运用至少16 a的DORIS、GPS和SLR数据,通过调和分析法研究这3种空间大地测量技术导出的地心运动时间序列。Sutterley等[4]结合GRACE/GRACE-FO任务的时间变化重力测量和海洋模型输出来估算地心运动,并考虑了自吸引和负荷效应。综合上述研究来看,由于各个学者使用的数据源不同,监测方法、时序分析方法也有差异,导致分析结果也存在不同。在地心运动监测方面,网平移法应用较为广泛。在时间序列分析方面,主要有傅里叶变换、小波分析和经验模态分解等方法。
本文采用美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心提供的地心运动时间序列,首先通过EMD对时间序列数据进行降噪处理;然后分别使用FFT和CWT对数据进行时频转换,计算功率谱密度以提取周期项进行分析;最后采用ARIMA模型和指数平滑法对未来20个月的地心运动进行预报。这项研究不仅提供了一种有效的数据降噪方法,也为地心运动的预测提供了一种新的算法参考。
EMD是一种信号处理方法,用于将信号分解成特征模态。它的优点是不需要预先设定基函数,而是根据所分析的信号自适应生成本征模态函数。EMD一般比较适用于分析非线性或者非平稳的信号序列,具有较高的信噪比和良好的时频聚焦性。
EMD的实施过程涉及识别原始信号的局部极大值和极小值点,并据此构建上包络线和下包络线。通过计算这2条包络线的平均值,得到均值包络线。随后,从原始信号中减去均值包络线,从而提取出中间信号。对该中间信号进行评估,检查其是否符合本征模态函数(intrinsic mode function, IMF)的2个标准:一是在整个数据集中,信号的极值点数量必须相等;二是在任何连续的区间内,局部极大值的数目必须大于或等于局部极小值的数目。如果中间信号满足这些条件,即被认定为一个IMF;若不满足,则重复上述过程,直至满足条件。EMD的最终目标是将原始信号分解为一系列IMF,每个IMF都代表信号中不同频率的振荡成分。
本文利用EMD将信号分解为若干个频率由高到低的IMF,以此去掉高频成分(噪声)。
本文使用FFT和CWT将这些离散数据从时域转换到频域。通过计算频谱的功率谱密度,可以找到信号在不同频率上的能量分布,进而判断其是否存在周期性。
FFT是一种高效的计算方法,用于计算离散傅里叶变换(DFT)。FFT的目标是将一个随时间变化的波形分解成不同频率的正弦波图像,从而实现信号处理和频谱分析。可以表示为:
$\operatorname{FFT}(y)=a+b \mathrm{i}$
式中,i为虚数单位;a为FFT结果的实部;b为FFT结果的虚部。
小波变换通过将傅里叶变换中的基函数(无限延伸的三角函数)替换为有限长度的小波基函数,实现对信号的时频分析。这些小波基函数具备可变的尺度和平移特性,使得它们能够同时捕捉信号的时间和频率特征。小波变换能够产生时频谱,直观地展示信号在不同时间和频率上的动态变化。在时间域内,小波变换通过沿时间轴移动小波,对信号的各个部分进行连续的小波系数计算。这一过程涉及到将小波函数与信号的局部窗口进行比较,以获取小波系数。小波系数的幅度越大,表明小波函数与信号在该段的拟合度越高。
小波变换有2个变量:尺度a控制小波函数的伸缩,对应于频率(反比);平移量τ控制小波函数的平移,对应于时间。基本公式为:
$\begin{aligned}& \operatorname{CWT}(a, b)=\left\langle f, \psi_{a, b}\right\rangle= \\& \frac{1}{\sqrt{a}} \int_{-\infty}^{+\infty} f(t) \cdot \psi^*\left(\frac{t-b}{a}\right) \mathrm{d} t\end{aligned}$
式中,CWT(a, b)为小波变换的结果,表示在尺度a和位置b处的小波系数;f(t)为原始信号或函数;ψ为小波函数,其在时频域都具有局部化特性;t为时间变量。
功率谱密度是描述信号在不同频率上的能量分布的工具。对于周期性信号,功率谱密度可以辅助确定信号的周期性特征。功率谱密度表示为:
$\begin{gathered}P(f)=\frac{1}{N}|\operatorname{FFT}(y)|^2= \\\frac{(a+b \mathrm{i})(a-b \mathrm{i})}{N}=\frac{1}{N}\left(a^2+b^2\right)\end{gathered}$
式中,N为序列长度。计算得到功率谱密度后,以频率为横轴,功率谱密度为纵轴,绘制曲线图,并以此识别周期。
本文使用ARIMA和指数平滑法进行地心运动预报。
ARIMA是一种用于时间序列预测的方法,常被应用于需求预测和规划。ARIMA适用于随机过程的特征随着时间变化导致时间序列非平稳的情况。ARIMA要求输入的数据序列是平稳的(通过对数变换或差分可以使序列平稳),即均值和方差不随时间而变化。
指数平滑法的基本原理是对时间序列的观测值进行加权平均,以预测未来的值。它的核心思想是对历史数据进行加权处理,使得越近期的数据拥有越大的权重,而远期数据的权重逐渐减小。
本文所使用的地心运动时间序列由美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心提供,时间跨度为1993—2023年,采样间隔为1个月。目前,处理地心运动数据的主流方式是调和分析,同时也发展出一些新方法,如EMD、SSA,有的研究还引入小波分析。本文采用EMD进行数据的降噪处理,利用FFT和CWT进行后续的时变分析。
在观测获取地心运动时间序列时会不可避免地受到噪声的影响。现在用于地心运动时间序列降噪的方法主要有Kalman滤波、小波变换、EMD等。由于Kalman滤波和小波变换方法存在一定的局限性,本文选择EMD对地心运动时间序列进行降噪。
将1993—2023年的地心运动时间序列数据进行EMD处理,得到若干IMF分量与趋势项,IMF信号的本征模式有助于理解信号的局部特性和频率成分。利用EMD的结果,剔除IMF中所包含的高频噪声项,并对地心运动时间序列进行重构,获得降噪后的地心运动时间序列。
降噪重构后的数据与原始数据的X、Y、Z方向的时间序列如图1~3所示。经过对比可以发现,降噪后的序列与原始序列在波动细节上保持一致,波峰和波谷也大致相同。与原始序列相比,降噪后的序列更加平滑,其周期性特征也更为明显。以原序列为基准计算出降噪后的X、Y、Z方向时间序列数据的RMSE和信噪比(表1)。
RMSE表示降噪后的时间序列与原始时间序列之间的平均误差,从表1可以看出,降噪后的时间序列与原始时间序列之间的平均误差较小。SNR表示信号的功率与噪声的功率之比,从表1可以看出,信号的功率相对于噪声的功率略高,但仍可能存在一些噪声成分。
趋势项可能会导致数据不稳定或者难以进行进一步的分析和预测,在EMD降噪后,需要去除时间序列数据中的趋势项,以便更好地识别和理解数据中的其他变化,比如季节性变化或者随机波动。去除原始数据和降噪数据的线性趋势后的地心运动时间序列如图4~6所示。
对比图1~3可以发现,图4、5表示的X、Y方向的原始数据和降噪数据趋势项不明显,去除前后相差不大,而图6表示的Z方向数据去除趋势项后曲线更加平缓。
利用FFT对降噪后的地心运动时间序列进行处理,将信号分解成不同频率的正弦和余弦成分,通过计算频谱的功率谱密度提取出地心运动时间序列的部分周期项(图7~9)。
由图7~9可见,由于低频噪声尚未去除,功率谱中仍存在许多低频噪声项。随后提取出功率谱密度较大的5项主要频率成分进行频率、周期、振幅分析,并绘制表2。
由表2可见,X、Y、Z方向上都存在366 d左右的周年项、180 d左右的接近半年的周期项和30 a的长期性运动。
根据目前的研究,一般将地心运动的周期分为3种:长期性运动,即由于冰期后地壳回弹、冰雪融化、海平面的变化等导致的地心运动;与质量负载相关的季节性变化,如太阳辐射量的季节性变化、陆地水变化等引起的地心运动;非季节性变化,即固体潮、海潮和极潮等自然现象引起的地心运动。
表3为不同数据、不同方法解算的地心运动周年变化的振幅、相位。比较表2、3可知,由FFT获得的周年项在X、Y方向上的相位同ECCO结果较为一致,而Z方向的相位则与GPS OBP GRACE结果更接近。对于振幅而言,本文的X方向结果同ECCO接近,Y方向明显大于已有的结果,Z方向同SLR更接近。
FFT可以将信号分解成不同频率的成分,但对于非平稳信号(频率随时间变化的信号)有局限性。小波变换可以非常好地解决这个问题。小波基函数具有不同的尺度和平移量,可以同时提供信号的时间和频率信息。小波变换可以获得时频谱,展示信号在不同时间和频率上的变化。
对EMD降噪的数据进行CWT处理,并绘制尺度图,以颜色代表CWT系数的绝对值,结果如图10~12所示。
分析图10~12可知,X、Y、Z方向都存在频率为0.002 74 Hz的主频率成分,对应周期为365 d,也就是周年项。
对于X、Y方向,1993—1996年存在的主要频率成分为0.002 38 Hz,对应周期为420 d;而1996—2000年主要频率成分变为0.002 74 Hz的周年项;2000年之后,主要频率成分依然是0.002 74 Hz左右,但图像变暗,意味着周年项仍然存在,但振幅明显减弱。
Z方向1994—2002年出现的主要频率成分为0.002 74 Hz;随时间推移,主要频率成分变成0.002 28 Hz,对应周期为438 d,同时也存在振幅减弱的现象。
地心运动时间序列的预测方法主要有指数平滑、回归分析和机器学习等。回归分析对于非线性关系的建模能力有限,对于大量相关变量的选择和处理可能会增加模型的复杂度;机器学习方法对数据量和质量要求较高,容易过拟合,且模型参数的选择和调优相对复杂。因此,本文使用ARIMA模型与指数平滑法对地心运动时间序列进行预测。
ARIMA模型是一种用于分析和预测时间序列数据的统计方法。它结合了自回归(AR)和滑动平均(MA)的概念,以及积分(I)的操作。在确定ARIMA模型参数后,对地心运动原始数据进行划分,将80%作为训练集,20%作为测试集,预测20个月的时间序列,结果如图13~15所示。
分析图13~15可知,ARIMA预测手段下的Y方向的预报效果较好,而X、Z方向的预测精度较差。X、Y、Z方向预测结果的RMSE分别为3.31 mm、2.40 mm、5.75 mm。
多次调整ARIMA参数重新预测,预测的结果并没有明显改善。为了获得更优的预测结果,本文采用指数平滑法进行X、Z方向的预测,绘制预测时间序列图,如图16、17所示。
对比图16、17与图13、15,在X、Z方向的预报上,指数平滑法的预报结果要优于ARIMA模型,计算指数平滑法预测结果的RMSE,X方向为2.73 mm,Z方向为3.61 mm,精度明显提高。
综上,ARIMA模型对Y方向的预测效果较好,而对X、Z方向的预测精度较差;指数平滑法对X、Z方向预测精度较好。ARIMA模型在地心运动时间序列的短期预测上存在不错的适用性,而由于地心运动的非平稳性,其受到较大的环境因素影响,因此ARIMA模型在中长期上的预测精度不高。指数平滑方法的优势在于简单易用,并且可以对数据的趋势进行灵活建模。
对近期的地心运动时间序列进行分析,以探索其较往期是否存在变化。
单独提取2020—2022年的地心运动时间序列,并进行去趋势项、FFT和功率谱密度分析,功率谱密度计算结果如图18所示。根据图18所提取的周年变化的频率、周期、振幅结果如表4所示。
利用FFT对2020—2022年的近期地心运动时间序列进行分析(表4),结果表明,对于近期地心运动时间序列的周年变化,3个方向的周期均为360 d,其振幅分别为1.59 mm、1.79 mm、2.53 mm,较以往分别降低49.84%、68.48%、52.44 %。上述结果显示,相较于过去的30 a,近3 a地心运动的X、Y、Z方向的振幅存在明显减弱,周年变化存在平移。
本文利用美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心提供的地心运动时间序列,采用EMD进行降噪;然后分别利用FFT和CWT对降噪后的地心运动时间序列进行分析,观察其时频特征;最后采用ARIMA模型与指数平滑法对地心运动时间序列进行预测。此外,对近期地心运动时间序列进行分析,观察地心运动的时频特征是否存在变化。主要结论如下:
1) 利用EMD方法对地心运动时间序列进行降噪后的序列与原始序列在波动细节上保持一致,波峰和波谷也大致相同。与原始序列相比,降噪后的序列更加平滑,其周期性特征也更为明显。计算降噪后序列的RMSE和SNR,结果表明,降噪后的时间序列与原始时间序列之间的平均误差相对较小,信号的功率相对于噪声的功率略高,但仍可能存在一些噪声成分。
2) 利用FFT和功率谱密度对地心运动时间序列进行分析,探测到地心运动存在明显的周年变化、0.5 a周期和长期运动。
3) 利用CWT对地心运动时间序列进行分析,探测到X、Y、Z方向皆存在一个0.002 74 Hz附近的主频率,对应365 d附近的周年项,其振幅分别为4.95 mm、4.83 mm、5.11 mm。
4) 采用ARIMA模型与指数平滑法对20个月内的地心运动进行预测。结果表明,ARIMA模型对于Y方向的预测效果较好,而对于X、Z方向的预测精度较差;指数平滑法对X、Z方向的预测精度更优。这表明ARIMA模型在短期预测上存在不错的适用性,而由于地心运动的非平稳性,因为受到较大的环境因素影响,ARIMA模型在中长期上的预测精度不高。相较而言,指数平滑方法更加简单易用,并且可以对数据的趋势进行灵活的建模。
5) 单独对近期地心运动进行时序分析。对于近期地心运动时间序列的周年变化,X、Y、Z方向的周期均为360 d,其振幅分别为1.59 mm、1.79 mm、2.53 mm,较以往分别降低49.84%、68.48%、52.44%。这些结果显示,相较于过去的30 a,X、Y、Z方向的振幅存在明显的减弱,周年变化存在平移。
  • 国家自然科学基金(42374015)
  • 国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1503600)
  • 天津市轨道交通导航定位及时空大数据技术重点实验室开放基金(TKL2024B04)
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2025年第45卷第4期
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.317
  • 接收时间:2024-07-05
  • 首发时间:2026-10-30
  • 出版时间:2025-04-15
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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-05
基金
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42374015)
国家自然科学基金(42374015)
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1503600)
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1503600)
Open Fund of Tianjin Key Laboratory of Rail Transit Navigation Positioning and Spatio-Temporal Big Data Technology(TKL2024B04)
天津市轨道交通导航定位及时空大数据技术重点实验室开放基金(TKL2024B04)
作者信息
    1 武汉大学测绘学院, 武汉市珞喻路129号, 430079
    2 中国铁路设计集团有限公司, 天津市岷江路10号, 300251
    3 自然资源部大地测量数据处理中心, 西安市友谊东路334号, 710054
    4 武汉大学卫星导航定位技术研究中心, 武汉市珞喻路129号, 430079
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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