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Article(id=1322933602547278632, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322933542426116991, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.124, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1710950400000, receivedDateStr=2024-03-21, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793341549765, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1736870400000, pubDateStr=2025-01-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793341549765, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793341549765, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793341549765, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322933542426116991, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2025', volume='45', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='110', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1736870400000', pubDateStr='2025-01-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793341535431, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793341535431, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=97, endPage=103, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322933602715050793, articleId=1322933602547278632, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Response Study of Surface Pressure Change and Deep Well Water Level in Yunnan Caused by Tonga Volcanic Eruption in 2022, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Tonga volcano violently erupted at 12:26:30 on January 15, 2022. The atmospheric pressure observation station of Yunnan Geophysical Network clearly recorded the intense pressure change process caused by the eruption. The atmospheric pressure change forms and characteristics of all observation stations were highly consistent, with the average peak amplitude of 2.16 hPa and the average propagation velocity of 314.30 m/s. The wave train has the properties of Lamb wave propagation, and the atmospheric pressure observation data are basically reliable. The water level observation in Yunnan deep well clearly recorded the water level change caused by the short-time pressure change. The static pressure efficiency of the observation well was estimated by the ratio of peak water level change to the amplitude of pressure change. We analyze by regression the short-time pressure change and well water level data, and take the determination coefficient, regression line slope and static pressure efficiency as indicators. Then we analyze the bearing property and stress-strain sensitivity of the borehole water-bearing system. The results show that the water level and pressure observation data of 25 wells, such as Kunming station, have high goodness of fit, small lag time, and good permeability of aquifer. The atmospheric pressure efficiency of 7 wells in Kunming station, Daguanxijiagou, Tengchong station, Ludianciyuan, Nanhua, Shiping and Zhaotong SK3 is slightly higher, and the sensitivity of well water level to stress and strain may be low. The larger the coefficient of determination for an observation well, the higher the probability that its monitoring and forecasting performance will be assessed as qualified.

, authors=Bailun CAO1, Min HONG1, *, Yong DUAN1, Fujiang KUANG1, Jiankun CHEN1, authorsList=Bailun CAO, Min HONG, Yong DUAN, Fujiang KUANG, Jiankun CHEN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Min HONG, authorNote=

CAO Bailun, engineer, majors in earthquake monitoring and prediction, E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved, without authorization, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322933604959003448, articleId=1322933602547278632, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=2022年汤加火山喷发引起的云南地表气压变化及深井水位响应研究, columnId=1322506256904994864, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=观测技术, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

2022-01-15 12:26:30汤加火山剧烈喷发。云南地球物理台网气压观测站清晰记录到此次火山喷发引起的强烈气压变化过程, 各观测站气压变化形态、特征高度一致, 峰值振幅均值为2.16 hPa, 平均传播速度约为314.30 m/s, 波列具备兰姆波传播属性, 气压观测数据可靠。云南深井水位观测清晰记录了本次短时气压变化引起的水位变化, 以峰值水位变化与气压变化幅值比估算观测井静态气压效率, 对短时气压变化与井水位数据进行回归分析, 以确定系数、回归线斜率、静态气压效率为指标, 进而分析井孔含水系统的渗透性和应力应变敏感程度。研究结果显示, 昆明台观测井等25口井水位、气压观测数据拟合优度高、滞后时间短, 含水层渗透性良好, 其中昆明台、大关谢家沟、腾冲台、鲁甸茨院、南华、石屏、昭通SK3等7口井气压效率偏大, 井水位对应力应变的敏感程度可能偏低; 确定系数越大的观测井监测预报效能评估分级合格概率越大。

, authors=曹白伦1, 洪敏1, *, 段勇1, 匡福江1, 陈建坤1, authorsList=曹白伦, 洪敏, 段勇, 匡福江, 陈建坤, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=洪敏, authorNote=

曹白伦, 工程师, 主要从事地震监测预报研究, E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=

洪敏, 正研级高级工程师, 主要从事地震预报研究, E-mail:

HONG Min, professor, majors in earthquake prediction, E-mail:

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CAO Bailun, engineer, majors in earthquake monitoring and prediction, E-mail:

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曹白伦, 工程师, 主要从事地震监测预报研究, E-mail:

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曹白伦, 工程师, 主要从事地震监测预报研究, E-mail:

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tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322940411412619365, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322933602547278632, language=CN, label=图7, caption=昆明台气压、水位短时变化与回归分析, figureFileSmall=6FkcJ5e+XYEb6JrQSO7AHw==, figureFileBig=XswuMWuJPQbvx04oIGA+kw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322940411794301030, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322933602547278632, language=EN, label=Tab. 1, caption=

Fitting parameters, atmospheric pressure efficiency and lithologic statistics

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号 观测井名称 拟合参数 估算气压效率
/mm·hPa -1		 斜率与气压
效率偏差/%		 岩性 监测预报
评估等级
确定系数 斜率
1 昆明台 0.92 6.20 5.98 3.49 灰岩 合格
2 彝良 0.91 4.71 4.36 7.45 砂岩 基本合格
3 大关谢家沟 0.90 6.96 6.19 11.09 砂岩 合格
4 腾冲台 0.88 5.64 5.91 -4.72 安山岩、凝灰岩 合格
5 鲁甸茨院 0.88 6.30 6.30 -0.08 砂岩 基本合格
6 建水 0.87 3.67 4.75 -29.38 灰岩 合格
7 永胜 0.85 2.51 2.87 -14.35 泥岩、石英砂岩 合格
8 南华 0.84 5.41 5.45 -0.71 石英砂岩 合格
9 德宏法帕 0.83 4.01 4.59 -14.52 泥灰岩 合格
10 昭阳乐居 0.92 4.12 4.03 2.23 灰岩 基本合格
11 石屏 0.84 4.94 5.11 -3.40 灰岩 合格
12 蒙自 0.81 4.23 4.25 -0.52 灰岩 合格
13 泸西 0.81 3.54 4.44 -25.33 砂岩 基本合格
14 姚安 0.76 4.13 4.02 2.70 泥岩、泥砂岩 基本合格
15 开远 0.76 3.18 3.36 -5.56 灰岩 合格
16 通海高大 0.75 3.01 3.19 -6.02 石英砂岩 合格
17 丽江 0.75 2.54 2.74 -8.02 角砾岩、白云质灰岩 不合格
18 镇雄毡帽营 0.75 3.84 4.84 -25.93 砂岩 基本合格
19 威信 0.73 0.86 1.12 -30.11 砂岩 基本合格
20 师宗 0.69 3.06 3.66 -19.55 灰岩 基本合格
21 腾冲局 0.59 2.46 2.62 -6.39 玄武岩 合格
22 思茅区 0.58 2.42 2.84 -17.40 石英砂岩 基本合格
23 昭通SK3 0.54 3.83 5.48 -43.02 玄武岩 合格
24 大姚 0.52 0.95 0.97 -2.42 泥岩、粉砂岩 合格
25 澄江 0.52 1.34 1.77 -32.15 灰岩 不合格
), ArticleFig(id=1322940411890770023, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322933602547278632, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

拟合参数、气压效率及岩性统计

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号 观测井名称 拟合参数 估算气压效率
/mm·hPa -1		 斜率与气压
效率偏差/%		 岩性 监测预报
评估等级
确定系数 斜率
1 昆明台 0.92 6.20 5.98 3.49 灰岩 合格
2 彝良 0.91 4.71 4.36 7.45 砂岩 基本合格
3 大关谢家沟 0.90 6.96 6.19 11.09 砂岩 合格
4 腾冲台 0.88 5.64 5.91 -4.72 安山岩、凝灰岩 合格
5 鲁甸茨院 0.88 6.30 6.30 -0.08 砂岩 基本合格
6 建水 0.87 3.67 4.75 -29.38 灰岩 合格
7 永胜 0.85 2.51 2.87 -14.35 泥岩、石英砂岩 合格
8 南华 0.84 5.41 5.45 -0.71 石英砂岩 合格
9 德宏法帕 0.83 4.01 4.59 -14.52 泥灰岩 合格
10 昭阳乐居 0.92 4.12 4.03 2.23 灰岩 基本合格
11 石屏 0.84 4.94 5.11 -3.40 灰岩 合格
12 蒙自 0.81 4.23 4.25 -0.52 灰岩 合格
13 泸西 0.81 3.54 4.44 -25.33 砂岩 基本合格
14 姚安 0.76 4.13 4.02 2.70 泥岩、泥砂岩 基本合格
15 开远 0.76 3.18 3.36 -5.56 灰岩 合格
16 通海高大 0.75 3.01 3.19 -6.02 石英砂岩 合格
17 丽江 0.75 2.54 2.74 -8.02 角砾岩、白云质灰岩 不合格
18 镇雄毡帽营 0.75 3.84 4.84 -25.93 砂岩 基本合格
19 威信 0.73 0.86 1.12 -30.11 砂岩 基本合格
20 师宗 0.69 3.06 3.66 -19.55 灰岩 基本合格
21 腾冲局 0.59 2.46 2.62 -6.39 玄武岩 合格
22 思茅区 0.58 2.42 2.84 -17.40 石英砂岩 基本合格
23 昭通SK3 0.54 3.83 5.48 -43.02 玄武岩 合格
24 大姚 0.52 0.95 0.97 -2.42 泥岩、粉砂岩 合格
25 澄江 0.52 1.34 1.77 -32.15 灰岩 不合格
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2022年汤加火山喷发引起的云南地表气压变化及深井水位响应研究
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曹白伦 1 , 洪敏 1, * , 段勇 1 , 匡福江 1 , 陈建坤 1
大地测量与地球动力学 | 观测技术 2025,45(1): 97-103
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大地测量与地球动力学 |观测技术 2025 , 45 (1) : 97 -103
2022年汤加火山喷发引起的云南地表气压变化及深井水位响应研究
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曹白伦1 , 洪敏1, * , 段勇1, 匡福江1, 陈建坤1
作者信息
  • 1 云南省地震局, 昆明市北辰大道146号, 650224
通讯作者:

洪敏, 正研级高级工程师, 主要从事地震预报研究, E-mail:

HONG Min, professor, majors in earthquake prediction, E-mail:

作者简介:

曹白伦, 工程师, 主要从事地震监测预报研究, E-mail:

Response Study of Surface Pressure Change and Deep Well Water Level in Yunnan Caused by Tonga Volcanic Eruption in 2022
Bailun CAO1 , Min HONG1, * , Yong DUAN1, Fujiang KUANG1, Jiankun CHEN1
Affiliations
  • 1 Yunnan Earthquake Agency, 146 Beichen Road, Kunming 650224, China

    • CAO Bailun, engineer, majors in earthquake monitoring and prediction, E-mail:

出版时间: 2025-01-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.124
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摘要
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2022-01-15 12:26:30汤加火山剧烈喷发。云南地球物理台网气压观测站清晰记录到此次火山喷发引起的强烈气压变化过程, 各观测站气压变化形态、特征高度一致, 峰值振幅均值为2.16 hPa, 平均传播速度约为314.30 m/s, 波列具备兰姆波传播属性, 气压观测数据可靠。云南深井水位观测清晰记录了本次短时气压变化引起的水位变化, 以峰值水位变化与气压变化幅值比估算观测井静态气压效率, 对短时气压变化与井水位数据进行回归分析, 以确定系数、回归线斜率、静态气压效率为指标, 进而分析井孔含水系统的渗透性和应力应变敏感程度。研究结果显示, 昆明台观测井等25口井水位、气压观测数据拟合优度高、滞后时间短, 含水层渗透性良好, 其中昆明台、大关谢家沟、腾冲台、鲁甸茨院、南华、石屏、昭通SK3等7口井气压效率偏大, 井水位对应力应变的敏感程度可能偏低; 确定系数越大的观测井监测预报效能评估分级合格概率越大。

汤加火山  /  大气波  /  井水位  /  气压效率

Tonga volcano violently erupted at 12:26:30 on January 15, 2022. The atmospheric pressure observation station of Yunnan Geophysical Network clearly recorded the intense pressure change process caused by the eruption. The atmospheric pressure change forms and characteristics of all observation stations were highly consistent, with the average peak amplitude of 2.16 hPa and the average propagation velocity of 314.30 m/s. The wave train has the properties of Lamb wave propagation, and the atmospheric pressure observation data are basically reliable. The water level observation in Yunnan deep well clearly recorded the water level change caused by the short-time pressure change. The static pressure efficiency of the observation well was estimated by the ratio of peak water level change to the amplitude of pressure change. We analyze by regression the short-time pressure change and well water level data, and take the determination coefficient, regression line slope and static pressure efficiency as indicators. Then we analyze the bearing property and stress-strain sensitivity of the borehole water-bearing system. The results show that the water level and pressure observation data of 25 wells, such as Kunming station, have high goodness of fit, small lag time, and good permeability of aquifer. The atmospheric pressure efficiency of 7 wells in Kunming station, Daguanxijiagou, Tengchong station, Ludianciyuan, Nanhua, Shiping and Zhaotong SK3 is slightly higher, and the sensitivity of well water level to stress and strain may be low. The larger the coefficient of determination for an observation well, the higher the probability that its monitoring and forecasting performance will be assessed as qualified.

Tonga volcano  /  atmospheric wave  /  well water level  /  atmospheric pressure efficiency
曹白伦, 洪敏, 段勇, 匡福江, 陈建坤. 2022年汤加火山喷发引起的云南地表气压变化及深井水位响应研究. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025 , 45 (1) : 97 -103 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.124
Bailun CAO, Min HONG, Yong DUAN, Fujiang KUANG, Jiankun CHEN. Response Study of Surface Pressure Change and Deep Well Water Level in Yunnan Caused by Tonga Volcanic Eruption in 2022[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2025 , 45 (1) : 97 -103 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.124
正文
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北京时间2022-01-15 12：26：30汤加火山(20°32′42.83″S，175°23′22.31″W)剧烈喷发，激发了波及全球范围的大气波，其中兰姆波以318±6 m/s的相速度在地表传播[1]，昆明次声台阵记录了火山喷发产生的次声波沿反方向、正方向绕地球传播的信号，传播速度约为321 m/s[2], 中国大陆所有地应变观测站均清晰记录到由此产生的短时地表应变变化，部分观测站还记录到绕地球一圈后再次到达的大气波对地表的作用，传播速度约为310 m/s，具备兰姆波传播属性[3]。云南多个井孔水位数据记录了此次气压效应。大气压力对观测井水位有着重要影响，大气压力的变化在含水层里是由含水层骨架和水体共同承担，而在井里则完全由水体承担，这种不均衡导致水体在井和含水层之间流动，从而引起井中水位的变化[4]。研究井水位对气压信号的响应可揭示地下水运动规律、含水层储水机制等众多水文地质信息，也可为求解含水层的水力参数提供新的途径[4-5]。地下水位的气压效应在探究地下水的运动规律，识别地壳中的应力、应变信息时发挥着积极的作用[6]。高质量的监测数据是分析气压对观测井水位影响的基础和保障[5], 火山喷发产生的短时气压变化为评估气压观测站数据质量及研究不同井孔水位对同一次气压扰动响应提供了关键的天然实验数据。
一般用气压效率或气压系数来描述井水位的气压效应强弱，其含义是单位气压变化引起的水位变化值，气压效率常用mm/hPa作单位；有时把气压变化用等效水柱高度(1 hPa=10 mm)来表示，气压效率表示为无量纲数值，称为气压系数[7]。气压效率是表征井水位对气压变化响应灵敏程度的量，也是反映井水位对含水层应力应变敏感程度的量[8-9]。在地壳动力作用信息(又称为地下水微动态)的观测与研究中，观测井地下水的承压性是至关重要的条件[10], 对于均质、各向同性的理想完全承压含水层模型，在承压层均匀不透水的情况下，井水位的变化是瞬时的，气压效率是一个常数，称为含水层的静态气压效率(BE)[4, 11]。如果短时气压变化与水位变化具有高度同步性、相关性，水位气压响应滞后不明显，气压、水位数据回归线斜率即为气压效率，也可利用井水位与大气压力变化峰值幅度比值简单估算静态气压效率。
本文旨在利用云南地球物理台网气压观测记录的数据，对汤加火山喷发引起的大气波波列特征进行分析，对云南地球物理台网气压观测质量进行评价，并对提高气压观测质量提出意见和建议。以短时气压变化数据作为研究井水位气压响应的天然实验数据，对井水位、气压进行回归分析，给出确定系数R2、回归线斜率、气压效率，以期为研究井含水层气压响应特性、计算静态气压效率、评估观测井监测预报效能提供参考。
1 数据来源
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数据来自云南地球物理台网2022-01-15-20数据库，云南地球物理台网气压观测站网正常运行测点81个，全省大部分县城均有分布；静水位观测正常产出数据测点47个，气压、水位观测入库数据均为分钟值。本文深井水位数据主要用于分析井含水层渗透性，故只对静水位观测数据进行分析。
2 数据处理方法
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为真实表现研究时段气压变化及水位响应特征，需滤除观测数据中的固体潮和漂移等低频信号。吕品姬等[3]运用小波分析方法对应变观测分钟值数据进行滤波，取得较好效果。笔者同样采用db4小波基函数，根据气压及井水位观测数据变化形态，设置小波分解阶数N，得到第N阶趋势项AN；然后根据小波信号重构原理获得原始数据y的细节项dy=y-AN，经尝试，当N设置为6时，可较好地去除低频信号且保存波动时段的相对高频信号。
以昆明台气压、水位观测分钟值数据为例，对01-15 12：00-01-16 12：00观测数据进行前述小波分析，对6阶趋势项A6与细节项dy进行小波重构，重构信号与原始信号残差量级为1×10-12。图1给出第6阶趋势项A6(图1(c)、图1(d))及滤除低频信号后的气压及水位观测信号dy(图1(e)、图1(f))，可以看出，趋势项A6在短时气压变化时段较为平滑，短时变化信号较好地保留在细节项dy中，滤波效果理想。
3 数据分析
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3.1 气压变化分析
用前述小波分析方法对云南地球物理台网81个站点气压观测数据进行滤波，得到相对高频的细节项(图2)。图2(a)为各观测站记录到的气压波动峰值时间与汤加火山喷发时间差(T)分布，可以看出，滇东南地区观测站最早记录到气压变化，滇西北地区观测站最晚记录到气压变化。以观测站距离火山地表距离S为横坐标、T为纵坐标绘制散点图并进行线性拟合(图2(c))，因T为0时，S应为0，故设置横轴截距为0，拟合结果为：S=314.30T，确定系数R2=0.80，S单位为m，T单位为s，即平均传播速度为314.30 m/s, 这与兰姆波传播速度(318±6 m/s)高度吻合，拟合效果较好(确定系数R2取值范围0~1，R2介于0.5~0.8为可接受区间，R2＞0.8表明拟合效果较好)。表明地表短时气压变化的峰值到达时间与观测站至汤加火山的距离直接相关。81个站点分别给出的传播速度数据服从正态分布(图2(e))，说明云南地球物理台网气压观测仪器时间相对准确，仅少部分站点出现较大偏差。对设备授时情况进行调查发现，云南省内仅少部分气象设备进行GPS授时，行业网内无服务器提供授时功能，网络授时无效，绝大多数监测站为手动校时，手动授时频率与准确性会对仪器时间准确性造成影响。将气压辅助观测资料作为科学研究数据时，为提高数据的准确性及可靠性，有必要对气压辅助观测设备进行定期手动校时、网络授时或GPS授时。
对气压短时激烈变化时段的气压观测最大值与最小值作差，获得峰值变化幅度。图2(b)为云南地球物理台网各观测站短时气压变化的峰值变化幅度分布图，最大为2.61 hPa，最小为1.78 hPa，均值为2.16 hPa。以S为横坐标、气压短时变化峰值变化幅度为纵坐标绘制离散图并进行回归分析(图2(d))，可以看出拟合效果差，表明气压短时变化没有表现出随距离增加峰值变化幅度显著衰减的情形，这充分证明大气波按照兰姆波形式传播，水平方向传播过程无显著衰减。81个站点气压变化幅度服从正态分布(图2(f))，表明云南地球物理台网气压观测数据可靠。
云南地区不同观测站记录短时气压变化形态、振幅基本一致，仅在到时上有差异。对不同观测站气压记录曲线进行平移，短时气压变化时段各观测曲线高度重合(图3(a)), 这印证了大气波传播过程无显著衰减的特征。短时气压变化特征(图3(b))与昆明次声台阵[2]及中国大陆应变观测台站[3]记录的波列特征基本一致：最先到达的是数个长周期、高幅值的波列，跟随其后的是幅度较小、频率较高，但是持续时间更长的高频波列，最大脉冲前有两个明显波动，激烈变化集中在初动后的2 h左右，快速陡升的幅度约为快速下降幅度的3/4。
图4为大气波传播示意图，红圈传播方向为反向(自东向西)、蓝圈传播方向为正向(自西向东)。图5为2022-01-15-18云南地区20个不同观测站气压观测滤波信号，01-15 21:00左右云南地球物理台网观测站首次记录到反向传播的大气波，01-17 09：00左右第2次记录到反向传播的大气波，01-18 21：00左右记录的第3次沿反向传播的大气波仍可分辨。大气波沿着地球传播一圈大约需36 h，传播速度与前文计算的314.30 m/s一致。第1圈后气压扰动振幅衰减约60%。根据大气波传播速度，01-16 15:00左右，云南地区应首次记录到正向传播的大气波，与反向传播的大气波相比，各观测站记录的正向传播大气波显得十分微弱，昆明次声台站记录的正向传播次声波也同样不显著。这可能是两个方向大气波传播路径地表起伏的巨大差异导致的，因为兰姆波的能量密度随高度呈指数衰减，且不同方向传播遇到障碍后产生反射引起的衰减也不一致。
3.2 井水位响应
地震科研工作者在大气压力对地下水位的影响方面开展了许多研究，回归反卷积法、谐波调和法等地下水气压响应方法能够深入了解水力特性的空间和时间变化规律。然而，气象因素效应、固体潮效应是相互关联的，加之实际地质条件的复杂性，现有的方法均进行了不同程度的简化，因此利用不同方法获得的结果可能存在一定差异[5]。此次汤加火山喷发产生的大气波以约314 m/s的速度在大气层传播，传播过程引起了气压扰动，气压扰动导致地面压力、井孔水面压力变化，引起井水位发生变化。此扰动过程气压为唯一的变化因素，最为激烈的时段约2 h，相应时段云南地区温度、降水等未出现明显变化，无显著地震等地球物理事件，这为定量研究井水位气压效应创造了绝佳的实验条件。图6(a)~(f)给出01-15 12：00-01-16 12：00昆明、石屏、南华、通海高大、腾冲局、临翔6个测点气压与井水位分钟值时间序列曲线。可以看出，21:00后井水位记录到明显的气压扰动响应，响应延迟约1~3 min，但因井水位、气压设备时间不够准确，导致部分站点井水位气压响应滞后时间不准确。
本次气压变化具备兰姆波传播属性，云南地区形态、幅度高度一致。用前述小波去趋势方法获取气压、水位观测数据细节项，以昆明台为例，短时气压变化峰值为2.22 hPa，达到当日气压日变幅度3.09 hPa的70%以上，波列特征显著，气压激烈变化的第1个小时就记录了多个不同周期的大气波，这对研究不同井孔水位对同一次气压扰动的响应创造了天然实验条件。云南地球物理台网气压观测数据较为可靠，但少部分气压设备时间准确性存在偏差，加之部分水位观测站点未配置气压观测设备或期间气压设备故障，笔者以昆明台气压观测数据提取信号作为本次气压变化的标准变化气压。在计算井水位气压响应时，先计算水位观测数据与昆明台气压观测数据峰值的滞后/超前时间，根据滞后/超前时间进行坐标平移，使得水位变化峰值与气压变化峰值同步；再对气压变化最为显著的21：00-23:00气压A(hPa)、水位W(mm)数据进行线性回归分析，根据W=KA，得出确定系数R2与回归斜率K。
确定系数R2表征气压与井水位的同步变化程度。R2值越趋于1, 气压变化与水位变化同步程度越高，说明气压加载、释放过程中，井水位无显著超前或滞后效应，表明观测井-含水层系统有较好的渗透性；相反，R2越趋于0，说明水位变化与气压变化同步程度越低，即在气压加载、释放过程中，气压变化引起的水位变化不显著或水位响应超前/滞后明显, 表明观测井-含水层系统渗透性较差。本次气压陡升、陡降过程持续时间短，变化幅度大，峰值幅度即为陡降变化量，可采用简化计算气压效率的Clark方法[12]，直接用水位与气压峰值幅度的比值来估算静态气压效率。为更加准确地计算回归斜率与估算静态气压效率的差值，气压变化峰值幅度ΔB采用昆明台观测值2.22 hPa，计算水位激烈变化时段峰值幅度ΔW，静态气压效率BE=ΔW/ΔB。以昆明台观测井为例(图7)，W=6.20A，R2=0.92，回归斜率K=6.20 mm/hPa, 即气压增大1 hPa，水位下降6.20 mm。水位变化幅度峰值为13.27 mm，估算静态气压效率BE为5.98 mm/hPa, 回归斜率与静态气压效率相对偏差小于5%。
表1为云南地区静水位与气压观测数据拟合确定系数、回归斜率、估算静态气压效率、含水层岩性及观测井监测预报效能评估分级统计。由表可知，昆明台、彝良、大关谢家沟、腾冲台、鲁甸茨院、建水、永胜、南华、德宏法帕、昭阳乐居、石屏、蒙自、泸西共13口观测井R2＞0.8，姚安、开远、通海高大、丽江、镇雄毡帽营、威信、师宗、腾冲局、思茅区、昭通SK3、大姚、澄江共12口井0.5＜R2＜0.8。从回归分析结果看，以上25口井水位观测气压同步效应显著，气压响应滞后时间短，表明井-含水层系统渗透性良好。
经与观测井监测预报效能评估分级进行对照，以上25口观测井中，14口为合格，9口为基本合格，丽江、澄江2口观测井为不合格，不合格原因为观测环境评价不合格。确定系数R2＞0.8的有13口观测井，监测预报效能评估分级合格9口、基本合格4口，合格比例约70%，表明确定系数R2越趋于1，观测井监测预报效能评估分级合格的概率越高，R2可作为监测预报效能评估分级的参考指标。
对于承压含水层，短期内(1 h)大气压力荷载由孔隙水承担，含水层对大气压力的变化不敏感，气压效率数值较低[13]，承压井水位气压效率越大的井，其含水层对应力应变的敏感程度越低[9]。含水层岩性越坚硬，承压性越好，岩石压缩系数越小，导水系数越大；井径越小，气压效率越大。气压效率最大不超过10 mm/hPa，其中灰岩井气压系数最大(约6.0 mm/hPa)，砂岩及大理岩次之(3.6~4.2 mm/hPa)，砂砾岩、火成岩较小(2.6~2.9 mm/hPa)，松散的砂砾石、砂层最小(小于2 mm/hPa)[8-9]。综合判定地下水埋藏类型为承压井的通海高大、永胜、姚安井[10]确定系数R2＞0.7。通海高大井估算的静态气压效率系数约为0.32 mm/hPa(气压效率的1/10)，与运用不同数据长度拟合的结果0.32 mm/hPa[11]一致，表明利用本次气压、水位变化峰值幅度估算的静态气压效率数据可靠，给出的各观测站静态气压效率结果可为研究云南地区井水位静态气压效率提供参考。昆明、彝良、腾冲台等13口观测井回归线斜率与估算静态气压效率偏差小于10%，故回归线斜率也可替代静态气压效率。昆明台、大关谢家沟、腾冲台、鲁甸茨院、南华、石屏、昭通SK3共7口井气压效率略大(大于5 mm/hPa)，水位对应力应变的敏感程度可能偏低，其中大关谢家沟、鲁甸茨院、南华井静态气压效率与砂岩井气压效率均值(3.6~4.2 mm/hPa)偏差较大。
4 结语
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本文以2022-01-15汤加海底火山喷发引起的气压变化作为天然实验数据，运用小波分析方法提取相对高频信号，分析短时气压变化特征、大气波传播速度及井水位气压响应，得出以下结论：
1) 汤加火山喷发引起的云南地球物理台网气压观测变化幅度均值约为2.16 hPa，大气波传播速度约为314.30 m/s，传播过程无显著衰减，符合大气重力波特征。部分气压观测站点仪器时间有误差，为提高气压观测数据可用性，有必要进行校时、授时。
2) 云南地球物理台网气压观测3次记录到反向传播的大气波，传播1圈约需36 h, 第1圈后衰减约60%。根据兰姆波的能量密度随高度呈指数衰减的特性，大气波正向传播较反向传播衰减更严重，这可能与传播路径地表起伏差异有关。
3) 气压激烈变化时段，运用小波分析方法去除水位、气压数据长期趋势后进行线性拟合，根据拟合优度与气压效率，认为有25口观测井气压响应滞后小、井-含水层系统渗透性良好(表1)，其中昆明台、大关谢家沟、腾冲台、鲁甸茨院、南华、石屏、昭通SK3等7口井气压效率略大(大于5 mm/hPa)，井水位对应力应变的敏感程度可能偏低。给出的静态气压效率可为研究井水位气压响应提供参考，确定系数R2可作为观测井监测预报效能评估分级的参考指标。
基金
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  • 云南省地震局传帮带项目(CQ2-2023-07)
  • 中国地震局"三结合"课题(3JH-202401083)
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.03.124
  • 接收时间：2024-03-21
  • 首发时间：2026-10-30
  • 出版时间：2025-01-15
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  • 收稿日期：2024-03-21
基金
Chuanbangdai Research Funds of Yunnan Earthquake Agency(CQ2-2023-07)
云南省地震局传帮带项目(CQ2-2023-07)
Combination Project with Monitoring, Prediction and Scientific Research of Earthquake Technology, CEA(3JH-202401083)
中国地震局"三结合"课题(3JH-202401083)
作者信息
    1 云南省地震局, 昆明市北辰大道146号, 650224

通讯作者:

洪敏, 正研级高级工程师, 主要从事地震预报研究, E-mail:

HONG Min, professor, majors in earthquake prediction, E-mail:

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