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Article(id=1322916976091345385, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322916945741348911, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.422, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1764604800000, receivedDateStr=2025-12-02, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793337585708, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1789401600000, pubDateStr=2026-09-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793337585708, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793337585708, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793337585708, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322916945741348911, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2026', volume='46', issue='9', pageStart='1039', pageEnd='1170', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1789401600000', pubDateStr='2026-09-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793337578473, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793337578473, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1062, endPage=1069, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322916976351392234, articleId=1322916976091345385, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Prediction Effectiveness of Seismic Gap in Gansu and Its Adjacent Regions, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

We analyze the prediction effectiveness of seismic gaps before MS≥5 earthquakes in Gansu region from 1984 to 2023. The results show that seismic gaps in Gansu and its adjacent regions have an accuracy rate of 0.75, a false rate of 0.25, and a missing rate of 0.38 for forecasting moderate-strong earthquakes in Gansu. The R-value is 0.5, which exceeds the R0 value of 0.23 at the 97.5% confidence level. This demonstrates that seismic gaps have relatively good forecasting capability for moderate-strong earthquakes in Gansu. The mainshocks generally occurred inside the seismic gaps or near their edges, and the duration of these seismic gaps does not exceed 8 years. The number of broken and unbroken seismic gaps before mainshocks are comparable. The probability of the mainshock occurring within 1 year after the broken gap is about 89%, and about 67% within 4 months. There is no obvious correlation existed between the duration of seismic gap and the mainshock magnitude. However, there is a linear relationship between the minimum magnitude of seismic gap with initial magnitude of ML3.0~4.0, and the long axis of seismic gap has a good correlation with the mainshock magnitude. The seismic gap can be used as one of the important indicators for predicting moderate-strong earthquakes in western Qilian mountains, the southeastern part of eastern Qilian mountains and Minxian-Diebu section. It is also a significant indicator for predicting MS≥6 earthquakes in Gansu. The probability of two seismic gaps appearing before mainshock is very high, and the mainshock is most likely to occur within 4 months after the broken gap, located inside or near the overlapping region of the two seismic gaps.

, authors=Xiying DOU1, Hui ZHANG2, Minjuan LI2, Enli WANG3, Wen QIN1, authorsList=Xiying DOU, Hui ZHANG, Minjuan LI, Enli WANG, Wen QIN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322916983926305275, articleId=1322916976091345385, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=甘肃及邻区地震空区预报效能分析, columnId=1281933709121138897, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=地球动力学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

对甘肃地区1984—2023年MS≥5地震震前的地震空区进行预报效能分析。结果表明，甘肃及邻区地震空区对甘肃中强地震的报准率为0.75，虚报率为0.25，漏报率为0.38，R值为0.5，高于具有97.5%置信水平的R0值0.23，地震空区对甘肃地区中强震具有较好的预报能力。主震一般发生在地震空区内部或靠近边缘的地区，这些地震空区的持续时间最长不超过8 a。被打破和未被打破的地震空区数量相当，空区被打破后1 a内发生主震的概率约为89%，被打破后4个月内发生主震的概率约为67%。地震空区持续时间与主震震级无明显相关性，起始震级在ML3.0~4.0的空区震级下限与主震震级有一定相关性，地震空区长轴与主震震级有较好相关性。地震空区可作为祁连山西段、祁连山东段东南部和岷县-迭部段中强地震预测的重要指标之一。地震空区也是甘肃地区MS≥6地震预测的重要指标之一，主震前出现2个地震空区且被打破的概率很高，空区被打破后主震发生的优势时间为4个月内，主震位于2个地震空区的重叠区或重叠区边缘。

, authors=窦喜英1, 张辉2, 李敏娟2, 王恩利3, 秦雯1, authorsList=窦喜英, 张辉, 李敏娟, 王恩利, 秦雯, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

窦喜英，博士，副教授，主要从事地球物理方法研究，E-mail:

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窦喜英，博士，副教授，主要从事地球物理方法研究，E-mail:

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窦喜英，博士，副教授，主要从事地球物理方法研究，E-mail:

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蓝色圆点为有地震空区异常的地震，黑色圆点为无地震空区异常的地震

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蓝色为有地震空区异常的地震发生时间，黑色为无地震空区异常的地震发生时间

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红色为空区异常被打破的地震，蓝色为空区异常未被打破的地震，黑色为无空区异常的地震

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Statistics of seismic gaps before MS≥5 earthquakes in Gansu region

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号 地震名称 空区起始震级ML 起始时间 持续时间/月 空区被打破时间 打破地震距主震时间/月 空区长轴/km 空区性质 震中位置
1 1984-01-06甘肃武威5.3级地震 3.3 1980-01-01 48 1984-01-02 1 53 背景空区 空区内边缘
2 1987-01-08甘肃迭部5.9级地震 3.6 1980-08-01 76 1986-12-05 1 210 背景空区 空区内部
3 1988-11-22甘肃肃南5.7级地震 3.6 1980-01-01 93 1987-10-11 13 400 背景空区 空区内边缘
4 1990-10-20甘肃天祝-景泰6.2级地震 3.6 1986-05-01 53 220 背景空区 空区内部
5 1992-01-12甘肃嘉峪关5.4级地震 3.6 1987-01-11 60 250 背景空区 空区外边缘附近
6 1996-06-01甘肃天祝-古浪5.4级地震 3.6 1987-01-01 113 290 背景空区 空区边缘外部较远
7 2000-06-06甘肃景泰5.9级地震 3.0 1999-03-05 15 250 孕震空区 空区外边缘
8 2001-07-11甘肃肃南5.3级地震 3.0 1997-01-10 54 148 背景空区 空区外边缘
9 2002-12-14甘肃玉门5.9级地震 3.0 1997-11-01 61 2002-12-02 12 180 背景空区 空区内边缘附近
10 2003-10-25甘肃民乐-山丹6.1级地震2.7 2002-04-29 13 2003-06-15 4 120 孕震空区 空区内部
3.6 1996-07-28 82 2003-06-15 4 160 背景空区 空区内部
11 2003-11-13甘肃岷县5.2级地震 2.0 2002-09-12 14 195 孕震空区 空区内部
12 2013-07-22甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震 4.0 2008-03-06 31 2011-02-23 28 320 孕震空区 空区内部
13 2022-03-17甘肃肃南5.1级地震 4.5 2008-10-20 160 125 背景空区 空区边缘外部较远
14 2023-10-24甘肃肃北5.5级地震4.0 2008-10-21 180 126 背景空区 空区边缘外部较远
3.6 2022-06-09 16 185 孕震空区 空区外边缘
15 2023-12-18甘肃积石山6.2级地震3.6 2022-06-16 16 2023-10-21 2 275 孕震空区 空区内边缘
3.6 2022-09-02 13 2023-10-17 1 364 孕震空区 空区内边缘
), ArticleFig(id=1322916993053110843, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322916976091345385, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

甘肃地区MS≥5地震震前地震空区统计

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号 地震名称 空区起始震级ML 起始时间 持续时间/月 空区被打破时间 打破地震距主震时间/月 空区长轴/km 空区性质 震中位置
1 1984-01-06甘肃武威5.3级地震 3.3 1980-01-01 48 1984-01-02 1 53 背景空区 空区内边缘
2 1987-01-08甘肃迭部5.9级地震 3.6 1980-08-01 76 1986-12-05 1 210 背景空区 空区内部
3 1988-11-22甘肃肃南5.7级地震 3.6 1980-01-01 93 1987-10-11 13 400 背景空区 空区内边缘
4 1990-10-20甘肃天祝-景泰6.2级地震 3.6 1986-05-01 53 220 背景空区 空区内部
5 1992-01-12甘肃嘉峪关5.4级地震 3.6 1987-01-11 60 250 背景空区 空区外边缘附近
6 1996-06-01甘肃天祝-古浪5.4级地震 3.6 1987-01-01 113 290 背景空区 空区边缘外部较远
7 2000-06-06甘肃景泰5.9级地震 3.0 1999-03-05 15 250 孕震空区 空区外边缘
8 2001-07-11甘肃肃南5.3级地震 3.0 1997-01-10 54 148 背景空区 空区外边缘
9 2002-12-14甘肃玉门5.9级地震 3.0 1997-11-01 61 2002-12-02 12 180 背景空区 空区内边缘附近
10 2003-10-25甘肃民乐-山丹6.1级地震2.7 2002-04-29 13 2003-06-15 4 120 孕震空区 空区内部
3.6 1996-07-28 82 2003-06-15 4 160 背景空区 空区内部
11 2003-11-13甘肃岷县5.2级地震 2.0 2002-09-12 14 195 孕震空区 空区内部
12 2013-07-22甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震 4.0 2008-03-06 31 2011-02-23 28 320 孕震空区 空区内部
13 2022-03-17甘肃肃南5.1级地震 4.5 2008-10-20 160 125 背景空区 空区边缘外部较远
14 2023-10-24甘肃肃北5.5级地震4.0 2008-10-21 180 126 背景空区 空区边缘外部较远
3.6 2022-06-09 16 185 孕震空区 空区外边缘
15 2023-12-18甘肃积石山6.2级地震3.6 2022-06-16 16 2023-10-21 2 275 孕震空区 空区内边缘
3.6 2022-09-02 13 2023-10-17 1 364 孕震空区 空区内边缘
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甘肃及邻区地震空区预报效能分析
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窦喜英 1 , 张辉 2 , 李敏娟 2 , 王恩利 3 , 秦雯 1
大地测量与地球动力学 | 地球动力学 2026,46(9): 1062-1069
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大地测量与地球动力学 |地球动力学 2026 , 46 (9) : 1062 -1069
甘肃及邻区地震空区预报效能分析
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窦喜英1 , 张辉2, 李敏娟2, 王恩利3, 秦雯1
作者信息
  • 1 兰州石化职业技术大学, 兰州, 730060
  • 2 甘肃省地震局, 兰州, 730000
  • 3 中国石油勘探开发研究院西北分院, 兰州, 730020
作者简介:

窦喜英，博士，副教授，主要从事地球物理方法研究，E-mail:

Prediction Effectiveness of Seismic Gap in Gansu and Its Adjacent Regions
Xiying DOU1 , Hui ZHANG2, Minjuan LI2, Enli WANG3, Wen QIN1
Affiliations
  • 1 Lanzhou Petrochemical University of Vocation Technology, Lanzhou 730060, China
  • 2 Gansu Earthquake Agency, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • 3 Northwest Branch, PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Lanzhou 730020, China
出版时间: 2026-09-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.422
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摘要
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对甘肃地区1984—2023年MS≥5地震震前的地震空区进行预报效能分析。结果表明，甘肃及邻区地震空区对甘肃中强地震的报准率为0.75，虚报率为0.25，漏报率为0.38，R值为0.5，高于具有97.5%置信水平的R0值0.23，地震空区对甘肃地区中强震具有较好的预报能力。主震一般发生在地震空区内部或靠近边缘的地区，这些地震空区的持续时间最长不超过8 a。被打破和未被打破的地震空区数量相当，空区被打破后1 a内发生主震的概率约为89%，被打破后4个月内发生主震的概率约为67%。地震空区持续时间与主震震级无明显相关性，起始震级在ML3.0~4.0的空区震级下限与主震震级有一定相关性，地震空区长轴与主震震级有较好相关性。地震空区可作为祁连山西段、祁连山东段东南部和岷县-迭部段中强地震预测的重要指标之一。地震空区也是甘肃地区MS≥6地震预测的重要指标之一，主震前出现2个地震空区且被打破的概率很高，空区被打破后主震发生的优势时间为4个月内，主震位于2个地震空区的重叠区或重叠区边缘。

地震空区  /  中强地震  /  预报效能分析  /  甘肃地区

We analyze the prediction effectiveness of seismic gaps before MS≥5 earthquakes in Gansu region from 1984 to 2023. The results show that seismic gaps in Gansu and its adjacent regions have an accuracy rate of 0.75, a false rate of 0.25, and a missing rate of 0.38 for forecasting moderate-strong earthquakes in Gansu. The R-value is 0.5, which exceeds the R0 value of 0.23 at the 97.5% confidence level. This demonstrates that seismic gaps have relatively good forecasting capability for moderate-strong earthquakes in Gansu. The mainshocks generally occurred inside the seismic gaps or near their edges, and the duration of these seismic gaps does not exceed 8 years. The number of broken and unbroken seismic gaps before mainshocks are comparable. The probability of the mainshock occurring within 1 year after the broken gap is about 89%, and about 67% within 4 months. There is no obvious correlation existed between the duration of seismic gap and the mainshock magnitude. However, there is a linear relationship between the minimum magnitude of seismic gap with initial magnitude of ML3.0~4.0, and the long axis of seismic gap has a good correlation with the mainshock magnitude. The seismic gap can be used as one of the important indicators for predicting moderate-strong earthquakes in western Qilian mountains, the southeastern part of eastern Qilian mountains and Minxian-Diebu section. It is also a significant indicator for predicting MS≥6 earthquakes in Gansu. The probability of two seismic gaps appearing before mainshock is very high, and the mainshock is most likely to occur within 4 months after the broken gap, located inside or near the overlapping region of the two seismic gaps.

seismic gap  /  moderate-strong earthquake  /  prediction effectiveness analysis  /  Gansu region
窦喜英, 张辉, 李敏娟, 王恩利, 秦雯. 甘肃及邻区地震空区预报效能分析. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (9) : 1062 -1069 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.422
Xiying DOU, Hui ZHANG, Minjuan LI, Enli WANG, Wen QIN. Prediction Effectiveness of Seismic Gap in Gansu and Its Adjacent Regions[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (9) : 1062 -1069 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.422
正文
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地震空区是较大地震前较为典型的地震活动性异常，是广泛应用于中强地震预测中的重要判据之一。梅世蓉[1]首次提出地震空区概念，即强震发生前震中周围或附近会出现地震活动性降低的空白区。Fedotov[2]利用现代地震科学原理阐明地震空区概念。Mogi[3]将地震空区分为两类，第一类为已发生大震的破裂区的空段，第二类为由震级相对较低的地震形成的空区。此后，地震空区在中强地震危险性预测中备受关注。陆远忠等[4-5]通过分析1970—1980年中国大陆6级以上地震，将第二类地震空区进一步细分为背景空区和孕震空区，总结了预测中国大陆6级以上地震震级与背景空区、孕震空区的围空时间和围空长轴的经验公式。国家地震局科技监测司[6]结合地震预报实践明确给出第二类地震空区中背景空区和孕震空区的定义，并提出相应地震空区的识别和判定方法。众多学者对地震空区进行了大量研究, 取得了丰富的成果[7-12]。
甘肃地区地处我国中强震频发的青藏高原北缘、东北缘，区内地震地质构造复杂，受东昆仑断裂、祁连山断裂等深大断裂控制，自西北到东南贯穿有阿尔金地震带、祁连山地震带、民勤地震带和南北地震带。甘肃地区不同强度地震发生频率较高，许多地震震前伴有地震空区现象，如民乐-山丹6.1级地震前祁连山中东段区域出现2级和3级地震空区[13]、岷县-漳县6.6级地震前甘东南地区出现3.5级和5级地震空区[14]、积石山6.2级地震前甘青川交界处出现3级地震空区[15]，表明甘肃及邻区的地震空区对甘肃地区中强地震具有重要的指示意义。但以往研究尚未系统评估甘肃地区地震空区对中强地震的预报效能，因此有必要深入分析甘肃及邻区地震空区与甘肃地区中强震预测之间的关系。
本文拟通过中国震例、现有地震异常资料以及一些学者对甘肃地区部分地震震前地震空区的统计研究结果[8, 16]，系统整理1984—2023年甘肃地区5级以上地震震前地震空区，探讨地震空区与中强地震在时间、空间和震级上的响应关系，计算R值评分并进行地震空区的预报效能评价，提炼甘肃及邻区地震空区的预测指标，为甘肃地区中强震预测、地震应急工作提供强有力的参考依据。
1 研究区和资料收集
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收集1984—2020年中国震例和前人研究结果，结合现有2021—2023年甘肃地区地震异常资料，考虑一个震群对应一个震例，整理出1984年以来甘肃地区5级以上地震共23次，其中5~5.9级地震19次，6~6.9级地震4次。地震分布如图 1所示，基本可划分为从玉门至古浪的祁连山地区(西段对应①号区域、中段对应②号区域、东段对应③号区域)和甘东南东部区域，而地震主要集中在祁连山西段(①号区域)、祁连山东段(③号区域)、甘东南东部的合作-岷县-迭部区域(④号区域)，6级以上地震主要位于祁连山东段(③号区域)和合作-岷县-迭部段(④号区域)。
2 中强地震震前地震空区情况分析
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第二类地震空区中的背景空区一般由较大震级地震构成围空，围空范围较大，持续时间较长；孕震空区通常由较小震级地震构成围空，围空范围较小，持续时间较短。强震前一般先形成背景空区，然后再出现孕震空区，或只有孕震空区出现。本文整理中国震例、现有地震异常资料和学者对甘肃地区部分地震前地震空区的识别统计与研究结果[8, 16]，统计分析甘肃地区中强地震震前的地震空区异常情况，在23次MS≥5地震(除震群和强余震)中，有15次地震震前出现地震空区，占震例总数的65.2%，8次地震震前无地震空区异常，占震例总数的34.8%。将存在地震空区异常的地震在不同震级档地震中的占比进行统计，震前有地震空区出现的5~5.9级地震为11次，占5~5.9级地震总数的57.9%；有地震空区出现的6~6.9级地震为4次，占6~6.9级地震总数的100%。说明甘肃地区5~5.9级地震震前出现地震空区的概率较大，6~6.9级地震震前则全部出现地震空区异常，可见地震空区可作为甘肃地区中强地震发生的重点判据之一。
绘制有地震空区异常与无地震空区异常的地震分布情况和时间序列，结果如图 2和图 3所示，图中蓝色均对应震前有地震空区的地震，黑色对应震前无地震空区的地震。图 2中有地震空区异常的地震主要分布在祁连山西段(①号区域)、祁连山东段(③号区域)和甘东南东部的岷县-迭部段(④号区域内的绿色区域)，且祁连山西段和岷县-迭部段的所有中强震震前均有地震空区出现，祁连山东段的大多数中强地震震前也出现地震空区。可见这3个区域的地震震前出现地震空区异常的比例较大，地震空区可作为这3个区域内发生中强地震的重要预测指标之一。从地震发生时间来看(图 3)，甘肃地区2005年以后发生的大多数中强震震前无地震空区(黑色竖线)，其空间位置(图 2中黑色圆点)大多位于甘肃中强震活动水平相对较低的区域，如祁连山中段(②号区域)、阿克塞5.5级地震或甘东南南部文县5.0级地震等所在区域。
3 地震空区与中强地震的关系分析
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震前出现地震空区的15次中强地震中，地震空区与中强地震并非一一对应，有4次地震震前存在2个地震空区，且仅有岷县漳县6.6级地震震前对应MS5地震空区，起始围空震级较大，与所有围空震级相比，不具备普遍意义，故分析地震空区与中强震的统计关系时不考虑MS5地震空区。统计得到15次地震震前共有18个地震空区，结果如表 1所示。
由表 1可见，甘肃地区中强震震前的空区大多为背景空区，孕震空区只有7个。孕震空区围空震级范围为ML2.0~4.0，围空起始震级与主震震级相差约MS3.2以上，孕震空区形成距主震的间隔基本在16个月左右，仅有1个为59个月，映震的优势时段为14~18个月。背景空区围空震级范围一般在ML3.0~4.0之间，围空起始震级与主震震级相差约MS2.4以上，空区形成距主震的间隔在49~180个月之间，且以72个月为界各占约一半。
图 4为地震空区持续时间与主震震级的关系，可以看出，持续时间与主震震级无明显的线性关系，空区持续时间1~15 a不等，但主要集中在1~2 a和4~8 a两个时间段，1~2 a范围更加集中，持续时间超过10 a的较少。统计不同持续时间出现的频率可知，持续时间在1~2 a、4~6 a和6~8 a的地震空区分别占空区总数的33%(6/18)、28%(5/18)和17%(3/18)，3个区间共占空区总数的78%(14/18)，其次为持续10 a以上的占11%(2/18)，持续时间2~4 a和8~10 a各1个空区，持续时间在1 a以下的空区数为0。可见甘肃及邻区地震空区异常的优势持续时间为1~2 a和4~8 a，说明甘肃及邻区地震空区持续1~2 a可能会有中强地震发生，如果仍未有中强地震对应，则直接考虑空区可能会持续至4~8 a并对应中强地震，这对于甘肃地区中强地震预测具有一定的参考作用。
18个地震空区中主震前被打破和未被打破的空区数量各为9个。主震前未被打破的空区持续时间为14~180个月(图 5(a))，均值为74个月，持续时间在平均持续时间以下的空区数占67%，未被打破的空区中对应主震位于空区内部的仅有2个(图 5(a)中蓝色空心圆)，其余7个空区对应主震均位于空区外边缘或外部。被打破的空区持续时间为13~93个月(图 5(b))，均值为48个月，持续时间在平均持续时间上下的空区数量各占50%，被打破的空区中对应主震位于空区内部和内边缘。
从表 1中空区被打破的时间来看，1个在主震前28个月被打破，2个在主震前1 a左右，其余6个在主震前4个月内，可见被打破后1 a内对应有主震发生的空区占被打破空区总数的89%(8/9)，说明空区被打破后1 a内发生主震的概率非常高，空区被打破后4个月内发生主震的概率也较高，可达67%(6/9)。若空区未被打破，则根据前述空区持续时间在平均持续时间以下的占比，可以考虑空区持续时间最长5 a左右可能会有中强地震发生，发生地点在空区外边缘或外部的概率较大，持续时间超过9 a发生中强地震的概率较小，且地点均可能在空区外部区域。
结合表 1绘制震前有地震空区被打破的5级以上地震和无地震空区被打破的5级以上地震的空间分布图，具体如图 6所示。可以看出，9个被打破的空区对应有7次地震(图中红色实心圆)，其中3次6级以上地震，4次5~5.9级地震，相对集中在祁连山东段(图中③号区域)的西北部和甘东南东部的岷县-迭部段(图中④号区域内的绿色区域)；未被打破的9个空区对应有8次地震(图中蓝色实心圆)，其中1次6级以上地震，7次5~5.9级地震，主要集中在祁连山西段(图中①号区域)和祁连山东段(图中③号区域)的东南端区域。空区被打破对应的地震数量与空区未被打破对应的地震数量相当，但空区被打破后预测6级左右地震的准确率较高，且地震位于祁连山东段和甘东南东部区域的可能性较大。
根据表 1统计主震与地震空区的空间位置关系，15次中强震前出现的18个地震空区中，有11个地震空区对应的主震位于空区内部，占地震空区总数的61%(11/18)，4个地震空区对应的主震位于空区外边缘及附近，占空区总数的22%(4/18)，其余3个空区对应的主震位于空区外部，占空区总数的17%(3/18)，且这3个空区持续时间均在100个月以上。可见甘肃及邻区的绝大多数地震空区(约占83%)对应的中强地震位于地震空区内部或靠近空区边缘，且空区持续时间均在100个月以内; 少部分地震空区对应的中强地震位于空区外部，且空区持续时间在100个月以上。这一现象可为未来甘肃地区中强地震的地点和时间预测以及地点与时间的呼应关系提供一定的参考依据。
图 7为地震空区围空起始震级与主震震级的关系，可以看出，围空起始震级与主震震级具有一定线性关系(图中黑色实线)，统计关系为M= 0.085 5ML+5.455 9±0.524 4，相关系数为0.11，说明相关性较低，其原因可能为高起始围空震级对应低震级主震，这不符合地震震级预测规律[10]，如ML4.5起始围空震级对应肃南5.1级地震。但从围空起始震级范围和主震震级范围来看，甘肃中强地震震级主要在5.0~6.0级之间，震前地震空区围空起始震级主要集中在ML3.0~4.0之间，共15个，占地震空区总数的83%，特别是震级下限为ML3.6的地震空区有9个，占空区总数的60%；围空震级下限在ML3.0以下和ML4.0以上的地震空区数量较少，分别为2个和1个，共占17%。这一方面可能是由于甘肃测震台网监测能力具有阶段差异性，使得1980年以来甘肃地区ML3.0以下地震频次不够稳定[17]；另一方面可能与甘肃地区中强震震级最高不超过7级有关，故基本使用ML3.0以上的围空起始震级。去除ML3.0以下和ML4.0以上的围空起始震级的地震空区，只采用ML3.0~4.0围空震级区间，计算得到围空震级与主震震级的拟合关系式为M=0.391 1ML+4.432 6 ±0.483 2，相关系数为0.31，相关性得到提升(图中红色实线)。说明甘肃地区基于围空起始震级ML3.0~4.0的地震空区预测未来主震震级准确性更高。
图 8为地震空区长轴与主震震级的关系，可以看出，长轴与主震震级具有一定线性关系，其拟合关系为M=0.899lgL+3.691 3±0.592 2，相关系数为0.43。5.0~6.5级地震震前空区长轴主要在100~320 km之间。
分析所有MS≥6地震震前地震空区可知，甘肃地区6级以上地震震前均出现地震空区(包含大震级地震空区)，仅天祝-景泰6.2级地震震前出现1个地震空区，其余3次地震震前均出现2个地震空区，2个空区存在一定范围重叠，民乐-山丹6.1级地震和临夏积石山6.2级地震均位于重叠区内，岷县漳县6.6级地震震前出现1个MS5.0大震级空区和1个ML4.0震级空区，大震级空区嵌套小震级空区，主震位于重叠区边缘。所有空区持续时间最短为13个月，最长为144个月，持续时间在3 a以下的占多数。震前空区被打破的比例为3/4，被打破后距主震发生时间间隔最长的主震为岷县漳县6.6级地震，间隔超过2 a，其他2个地震对应的空区均在震前4个月内被打破。这说明在有空区被打破的情况下，预测6级以上地震的优势时间为打破后的4个月。
4 预报效能评价
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1984—2023年共发生MS5以上地震(不包含震群和强余震)23次，有15次地震震前存在持续地震空区，空区总数为18个，可看作18个地震空区异常对应18次地震，只有7次地震震前地震空区被打破，占比较小，故利用空区被打破的时间无法判定虚报。对比分析地震空区持续时间与主震震级关系，18个地震空区中绝大部分空区(15个)持续时间在8 a以下，平均持续时间为43个月，因此空区持续时间超过平均持续时间40个月以内(即持续时间不超过84个月(取整年))一般会发生地震，本文将地震空区异常持续时间超过平均持续时间40个月还未发生地震视为虚报，即空区异常持续时间超过7 a还未发生地震视为虚报，则18个地震空区中有4个为虚报的地震空区，故虚报地震次数为4，报对地震次数为14。前述统计出8次地震震前无地震空区，故漏报次数为8。
根据数理统计中的贝叶斯点估计法[18-19]，采用如下公式计算报准率、虚报率和漏报率：
$\text { 报准率 }=\frac{\text { 报对地震次数 }+1}{\text { 报对地震次数十虚报地震次数 }+2}$
$虚报率 =\frac{\text { 虚报地震次数 }+1}{\text { 报对地震次数 }+ \text { 虚报地震次数 }+2}$
$漏报率 =\frac{\text { 漏报地震次数 }+1}{\text { 报对地震次数 }+ \text { 漏报地震次数 }+2}$
计算得到报准率为0.75，虚报率为0.25，漏报率为0.38。对于地震空区的预报效能评价，本文基于中国震例、现有地震异常资料以及部分学者的研究结果进行地震空区统计，无法得到每个地震空区的面积，故无法使用与预报面积相关的R值评分公式[20]进行预报效能评估，但可采用国家地震局预测预防司[21]提供的预测效能评价R值评分方法对地震空区预测效能进行评估。
$R=c-b=\text { 报准率一虚报率 }$
计算得到R=0.5，高于具有97.5%置信水平的R0值0.23[6]，通过检验，可见R值评分具有较高的预报能力，并且虚报率和漏报率也较低，说明甘肃及邻区的地震空区对甘肃地区中强地震具有较好的预测能力。
5 结语
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1) 23次中强地震中有15次震前出现地震空区，空区总数为18个。按照地震空区超过平均持续时间40个月还未发震视为虚报，则18个地震空区中有4个空区为虚报，报准率为0.75，虚报率为0.25，漏报率为0.38，R值为0.5，表明甘肃及邻区的地震空区对甘肃地区中强震具有较好的预测能力。
2) 震前出现地震空区的6级以上地震占比100%，出现地震空区的5~5.9级地震在该震级档地震中的占比为60%。在空间分布上，祁连山西段、祁连山东段和甘东南东部地震震前出现地震空区概率较高，特别是祁连山西段、祁连山东段的东南部和甘东南东部的岷县-迭部段地震震前均出现地震空区，但前2个区域的地震震前地震空区多数未被打破，而岷县-迭部段地震震前地震空区大部分被打破。表明地震空区可作为这些区域中强地震地点和震级预测的较为可靠的参考指标之一。
3) 所有空区中背景空区占多数，孕震空区相对较少。孕震空区对应主震震级比围空起始震级高约MS3.2以上，映震的优势时段为14~18个月。背景空区对应主震比围空起始震级高约MS2.4以上，映震的优势时段无法判定。
4) 空区持续时间1~15 a不等，持续时间与主震震级无明显线性相关性。约83%的空区对应的主震位于地震空区内部或靠近空区边缘，持续时间多在7 a以内，主要在1~2 a和4~8 a两个时间段；剩余17%的空区其对应主震位于空区外部边缘较远区域，且持续时间超过100个月，这些可作为甘肃地区中强地震地点和时间预测的参考依据。震前被打破和未被打破的空区各占50%，未被打破的空区对应主震多数位于空区外边缘或外部，被打破的地震空区对应主震均位于空区内部，空区被打破后1 a内对应主震的概率高达89%，被打破后4个月内对应主震的概率为67%，说明空区被打破及被打破后4个月可作为一个很好的中强地震地点和时间的短期预测指标。空区围空起始震级与主震震级的相关性相对较低，原因可能为：1)与甘肃地区1980年以来地震监测能力有关；2)与甘肃地区中强震震级水平较低，最高不超过7级有关；3)地震样本数量相对较少。选用占比较大的ML3.0~4.0围空震级计算两者的关系，其相关性增大。这说明基于围空起始震级ML3.0~4.0的地震空区预测甘肃未来5.0~6.5级地震的震级较为准确。地震空区长轴与主震震级存在一定线性关系，亦可为预测5.0~6.5级地震提供可靠的参考依据。
5) 4次6级以上地震均位于祁连山东段和甘东南东部，有3次地震震前出现2个地震空区，所有主震位于双空区重叠区或重叠区边缘，震级比空区起始围空震级高MS3.2以上。空区持续时间多在3 a以内。震前空区被打破的地震比例为75%，被打破后4个月内一般对应有主震。地震空区完全可作为甘肃地区6级以上地震预测的一项重要指标。
基金
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  • 甘肃省高等学校创新基金(2022A-213)
  • 兰州石化职业技术大学博士基金(JK2021-02)
  • 中国地震局震情跟踪课题(CEA-ZQGZ-202501047)
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2026年第46卷第9期
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.422
  • 接收时间：2025-12-02
  • 首发时间：2026-10-30
  • 出版时间：2026-09-15
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  • 收稿日期：2025-12-02
基金
甘肃省高等学校创新基金(2022A-213)
兰州石化职业技术大学博士基金(JK2021-02)
中国地震局震情跟踪课题(CEA-ZQGZ-202501047)
作者信息
    1 兰州石化职业技术大学, 兰州, 730060
    2 甘肃省地震局, 兰州, 730000
    3 中国石油勘探开发研究院西北分院, 兰州, 730020
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