Article(id=1322567062459892285, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322567020940481144, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.167, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1747843200000, receivedDateStr=2025-05-22, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793254159798, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1776182400000, pubDateStr=2026-04-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793254159798, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793254159798, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793254159798, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322567020940481144, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2026', volume='46', issue='4', pageStart='392', pageEnd='521', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1776182400000', pubDateStr='2026-04-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793254149899, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793254149899, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=399, endPage=407, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322567062644441662, articleId=1322567062459892285, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Potential Landslide Hazards for a Hypothetical Earthquake in Nujiang Prefecture Based on the Newmark Model, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Taking Nujiang prefecture as the research object, a MS7.0 earthquake was set in the southern section of Nujiang fault. Based on the Newmark model and using basic data such as DEM and geological maps, the Arias intensity seismic motion parameter was selected, and the amplification effect of topography on seismic motion was considered to conduct a potential landslide hazard assessment in Nujiang prefecture, obtaining the spatial distribution pattern of potential seismic landslides in the study area. The results show that the areas with high sensitivity to potential seismic landslides in Nujiang prefecture are mainly distributed along the steep slopes on both sides of the Dulong river, Nujiang river, and Lancang river. The areas with low sensitivity are located in the gently undulating intermountain basins. The probability range of landslide instability is 0-11.69%. In the seismic landslide hazard zoning, the areas of extremely low hazard zone, low hazard zone, moderate hazard zone, and high hazard zone account for 78.11%, 12.23%, 5.69%, and 3.39% of the study area, respectively. The moderate and high hazard zones are mainly distributed in the steep slope areas on both sides of the Nujiang fault. In the study area, 23 natural villages and several highways as disaster-bearing bodies are located in the high hazard zone. This research can provide effective reference for seismic landslide emergency assessment, potential seismic landslide hazard prediction, and site selection for engineering construction in Nujiang prefecture.

, authors=Shaochang LIU1, 2, authorsList=Shaochang LIU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322567066280903249, articleId=1322567062459892285, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=基于Newmark模型的怒江州设定地震潜在滑坡危险性评估, columnId=1322566785874908034, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=特色栏目: 地震大地测量学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

以怒江州为研究对象, 在怒江断裂南段区域设定MS7.0地震, 基于Newmark模型, 利用DEM、地质图等基础数据, 选用阿里亚斯强度地震动参数, 并考虑地形对地震动的放大效应, 对怒江州开展设定地震潜在滑坡危险性评估, 获得研究区潜在地震滑坡空间分布规律。结果表明, 怒江州潜在地震滑坡敏感性高的区域主要沿独龙江、怒江、澜沧江等河流两岸的高陡边坡分布, 滑坡敏感性低的区域分布在地形起伏平缓的山间盆地。地震滑坡失稳概率值范围为0~11.69%, 地震滑坡危险性分区中的极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区面积分别占研究区总面积的78.11%、12.23%、5.69%、3.39%, 其中中、高危险区主要分布在怒江断裂两侧坡度较陡的斜坡区域, 研究区内的23个自然村和多条公路承灾体位于高危险区内。研究结果可为怒江州地震滑坡应急评估、潜在地震滑坡危险性预测和工程建设选址等提供有效的参考依据。

, authors=刘绍昌1, 2, authorsList=刘绍昌, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

刘绍昌, 工程师, 主要从事地震滑坡研究, E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=版权所有,未经授权,不得转载。, copyrightOwner=大地测量与地球动力学编辑部, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=XOduPa8hS4e1NP5kFOIYPw==, magXml=2y/0mmFCZl+1Efamx7NS2w==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=OQwgidO1uyqyH/0NhBjY+g==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=wFgZoQaFPgZ48HTr0mZGAw==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1322567066733888089, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322567062459892285, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=CSLYNSDZJ@126.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1322567066842939996, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322567062459892285, authorId=1322567066733888089, language=EN, stringName=Shaochang LIU, firstName=Shaochang, middleName=null, lastName=LIU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, address=1 Kunming Institute of Earthquake Prediction, CEA, Kunming 650224, China
2 Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1322567066922631773, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322567062459892285, authorId=1322567066733888089, language=CN, stringName=刘绍昌, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, address=1 中国地震局昆明地震预报研究所, 昆明, 650224
2 云南省地震局, 昆明, 650224, bio={"content":"

刘绍昌, 工程师, 主要从事地震滑坡研究, E-mail:

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刘绍昌, 工程师, 主要从事地震滑坡研究, E-mail:

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基于Newmark模型的怒江州设定地震潜在滑坡危险性评估
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刘绍昌 1, 2
大地测量与地球动力学 | 特色栏目: 地震大地测量学 2026,46(4): 399-407
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大地测量与地球动力学 |特色栏目: 地震大地测量学 2026 , 46 (4) : 399 -407
基于Newmark模型的怒江州设定地震潜在滑坡危险性评估
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2 云南省地震局, 昆明, 650224, bio={"content":"

刘绍昌, 工程师, 主要从事地震滑坡研究, E-mail:

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刘绍昌1, 2
作者信息
  • 1 中国地震局昆明地震预报研究所, 昆明, 650224
  • 2 云南省地震局, 昆明, 650224
作者简介:

刘绍昌, 工程师, 主要从事地震滑坡研究, E-mail:

Potential Landslide Hazards for a Hypothetical Earthquake in Nujiang Prefecture Based on the Newmark Model
Shaochang LIU1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1 Kunming Institute of Earthquake Prediction, CEA, Kunming 650224, China
  • 2 Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China
出版时间: 2026-04-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.167
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以怒江州为研究对象, 在怒江断裂南段区域设定MS7.0地震, 基于Newmark模型, 利用DEM、地质图等基础数据, 选用阿里亚斯强度地震动参数, 并考虑地形对地震动的放大效应, 对怒江州开展设定地震潜在滑坡危险性评估, 获得研究区潜在地震滑坡空间分布规律。结果表明, 怒江州潜在地震滑坡敏感性高的区域主要沿独龙江、怒江、澜沧江等河流两岸的高陡边坡分布, 滑坡敏感性低的区域分布在地形起伏平缓的山间盆地。地震滑坡失稳概率值范围为0~11.69%, 地震滑坡危险性分区中的极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区面积分别占研究区总面积的78.11%、12.23%、5.69%、3.39%, 其中中、高危险区主要分布在怒江断裂两侧坡度较陡的斜坡区域, 研究区内的23个自然村和多条公路承灾体位于高危险区内。研究结果可为怒江州地震滑坡应急评估、潜在地震滑坡危险性预测和工程建设选址等提供有效的参考依据。

怒江州  /  怒江断裂  /  Newmark模型  /  地震滑坡

Taking Nujiang prefecture as the research object, a MS7.0 earthquake was set in the southern section of Nujiang fault. Based on the Newmark model and using basic data such as DEM and geological maps, the Arias intensity seismic motion parameter was selected, and the amplification effect of topography on seismic motion was considered to conduct a potential landslide hazard assessment in Nujiang prefecture, obtaining the spatial distribution pattern of potential seismic landslides in the study area. The results show that the areas with high sensitivity to potential seismic landslides in Nujiang prefecture are mainly distributed along the steep slopes on both sides of the Dulong river, Nujiang river, and Lancang river. The areas with low sensitivity are located in the gently undulating intermountain basins. The probability range of landslide instability is 0-11.69%. In the seismic landslide hazard zoning, the areas of extremely low hazard zone, low hazard zone, moderate hazard zone, and high hazard zone account for 78.11%, 12.23%, 5.69%, and 3.39% of the study area, respectively. The moderate and high hazard zones are mainly distributed in the steep slope areas on both sides of the Nujiang fault. In the study area, 23 natural villages and several highways as disaster-bearing bodies are located in the high hazard zone. This research can provide effective reference for seismic landslide emergency assessment, potential seismic landslide hazard prediction, and site selection for engineering construction in Nujiang prefecture.

Nujiang prefecture  /  Nujiang fault  /  Newmark model  /  seismic landslide
刘绍昌. 基于Newmark模型的怒江州设定地震潜在滑坡危险性评估. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (4) : 399 -407 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.167
Shaochang LIU. Potential Landslide Hazards for a Hypothetical Earthquake in Nujiang Prefecture Based on the Newmark Model[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (4) : 399 -407 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.167
地震滑坡是地震动对斜坡堆积岩土体产生的附加力破坏了斜坡的平衡条件,导致斜坡失稳[1]。斜坡在地震动作用下产生的滑动是地震诱发滑坡的直接表现形式[2]。地震诱发的滑坡具有运移速度快、分布范围广、规模体积大、灾难效应重等特征[3]。山区中、强地震触发的地震滑坡,有时其危害性远大于地震直接灾害[4]。对高山峡谷地区开展潜在地震滑坡预测是区域地震滑坡危险性评估的重要组成部分,受到地学领域相关专家的广泛关注[5]。
怒江傈僳族自治州(以下简称怒江州)地处青藏高原东南缘,青藏高原东缘在3~4 Ma以来受地壳快速隆升、河流深切作用影响[6],形成了独特的高山峡谷地貌,区内98%以上面积属高山峡谷区。怒江断裂带作为青藏高原东南缘的一条大型陆内走滑断裂带[7],其东支怒江断裂沿怒江展布,发育于怒江州境内的贡山县、福贡县、泸水市。由于该断裂第四纪活动明显,地震活动频发,地壳构造变形剧烈,加之显著的河流侵蚀作用和特殊的高山峡谷地貌,孕育了脆弱的斜坡岩土体赋存环境,使得怒江州成为云南省地震滑坡灾害严重和多发的区域之一。
近年来, 国内部分学者对怒江州滑坡地质灾害隐患点识别[8]、区域滑坡易发性评价[9]、特大型单体古滑坡易滑地质结构与运动机制[10]等进行研究。然而潜在地震的发生具有一定随机性[11],且怒江断裂具有发生MS7.0地震的极大可能性。区内重大工程规划建设面临较高的地震滑坡危险性,而关于怒江州潜在地震滑坡危险性分析仍属空白。
常用的区域地震滑坡危险性评价方法有数理统计模型与Newmark模型两种。其中,数理统计模型以实际滑坡为基础,侧重于现有滑坡与其影响因子的统计分析,模型的预测准确性取决于地震滑坡数据库的完整性[12]。相比于数理统计模型,Newmark模型是基于物体力学平衡原理,不受地震滑坡数据库与地质背景差异的限制而具有推广优势,经过不断地应用和改进,已逐步成为国际主流的地震滑坡危险性评估方法[13],广泛应用于潜在地震滑坡危险性分析中[14]。
因此,本文以怒江州为研究区,基于研究区地震构造和工程地质背景,采用Newmark模型对怒江州开展设定MS7.0地震潜在地震滑坡危险性评估,以期为研究区的重大工程选址、地震应急准备、土地使用规划提供科学依据。
怒江州位于云南省西北部(98°39′~99°39′E, 25°33′~28°23′N),辖贡山县、福贡县、泸水市、兰坪县,总面积14 703 km2。构造上地处青藏高原东南缘,滇西三江构造带与扬子地块结合部位,地壳形变强烈。受泸水-龙陵断裂、怒江断裂、澜沧江断裂、维西-乔后断裂等断裂影响,该区历史地震频发。自1928年以来,研究区共发生7次MS≥4.5地震(图 1),且地震活动主要集中在断裂带附近。
怒江州位于横断山脉西南端纵谷地带,地势北高南低,以高山峡谷地貌为主。怒江、澜沧江作为主要的南印度洋水汽输送通道,其流域气候湿润,降水充沛,年平均气温15.8 ℃,年平均降水量1 301.9 mm。怒江州地层岩性复杂,从元古界到第四系地层均有出露,以寒武系、石炭系、二叠系、侏罗系、第四系地层为主,怒江断裂以西主要为元古界高黎贡山群变质岩,以东为寒武系至侏罗系的碳酸盐岩、花岗岩、碎屑岩等地层。怒江河谷及坡梁上分布着第三系与第四系冲积层、洪积层。
本文采用30 m分辨率的ALOS PALSAR DEM数据,岩性信息来自1 ∶ 20万地质图(http://www.ngac.org.cn),居民点、道路信息来源于全国基础地理数据库(http://www.webmap.cn)。地震滑坡危险性评估需将研究区划分为若干个尺寸相同的规则栅格,分别计算每个栅格的滑坡失稳概率。根据所选基础资料的精度,将所有矢量化格式的影响因子图层以30 m×30 m分辨率进行栅格化。
基于怒江州地震地质构造、工程地质条件和潜在震源区震级上限,假设怒江断裂南段区域发生MS7.0地震,以DEM、工程地质图为基础数据,考虑地形对地震动的放大效应,采用Newmark位移模型,并结合斜坡失稳概率曲线(方程),使用ArcGIS软件计算获得研究区设定地震潜在地震滑坡空间分布,并分析其对研究区自然村和道路承灾体产生的影响。技术路线如图 2所示。
Newmark模型最早由Newmark[15]针对地震作用下堤坝稳定性分析提出,利用斜面上刚性块体的移动来模拟滑坡。该模型将滑体视为一刚性块体,在地震过程中其内部不会发生形变,当受到的外力作用大于临界加速度时,则会产生有限位移[16]。
滑坡滑动临界加速度可表示为:
$\alpha_c=\left(F_S-1\right) g \sin \alpha$
式中,αc为临界加速度(单位m/s2);FS为静态安全系数;g为重力加速度(单位m/s2);α为地形坡度(单位(°))。研究区地形坡度(图 3)由30 m分辨率的DEM数字高程模型,通过ArcGIS软件计算获得。由于坡度小于10°的斜坡较稳定,基本不会发生地震滑坡,在FS计算中坡度小于10°的区域不参与计算。FS可表示为:
$ F_S=\frac{c^{\prime}}{\gamma t \sin \alpha}+\frac{\tan \varphi^{\prime}}{\tan \alpha}\left(1-m \frac{\gamma_w}{\gamma}\right) $
式中,c′为坡体等效黏聚力(单位kPa);φ′为内摩擦角(单位(°));γ为坡体重度(单位kN/m3);m为坡体饱和度;t为坡体厚度(单位m);γw为地下水重度(单位kN/m3),取10 kN/m3。根据怒江州多年降雨量资料可知,怒江州年平均降雨量为1 301.9 mm,年平均蒸发量为1 420.2 mm,坡体饱和度m=0。基于Newmark位移模型中坡体厚度的取值经验,并结合野外实际调查,研究区地震滑坡以浅表层滑坡为主,取坡体厚度t=3 m。以研究区1 ∶ 20万地质图为基础,结合研究区地层地质成因、岩性组合、岩石完整度、岩石坚硬程度等,将研究区地层岩性划分为63组工程地质岩组,并参照《工程岩体分级标准》[17]以及相关文献资料,获得研究区各工程地质岩组的物理力学参数。
潜在地震滑坡危险性分析需了解研究区或工程场址周围潜在地震活动水平,以确定研究区及其周缘未来地震强弱。结合潜在地震所产生的地震动变化规律,以滑坡失稳概率为危险性指标,预测研究区或工程场址的地震滑坡危险性,进而获得研究区或工程场址的地震动参数[18]。
怒江州位于青藏高原地震区滇西南地震带,震级上限为8.0级,b值为0.77,4级以上地震年平均发生率ν为20,潜在震源区震级上限为MS7.0(图 4),研究区面临较高的地震危险性。区内怒江断裂曾发生过多次中强破坏性地震,其第四纪活动性自北向南增强。断裂带交会处地震活动频发、地质灾害密集[19],因此选择怒江断裂活动性较强的南段与泸水-龙陵断裂交会区作为设定地震震中位置。
地震动参数是刻画地震动特征的重要度量值[2]。地震滑坡危险性评价中最常用的地震动参数有地震动峰值加速度(PGA)与阿里亚斯强度(Ia)。其中,Ia包含地震全部时程中的地震动信息——震动幅度、频率、持时,能全面准确描述地震动特征及潜在的破坏作用,并与地震滑坡具有很强的相关性[20]。地震滑坡危险性分析中所需的地震动参数主要是通过地震动衰减关系计算获得。本文选用Ia表征地震动强度,并采用Liu等[21]基于中国国家强震动台网中心(CSMNC)数据库建立的适合云南-四川地区的Ia衰减模型,开展潜在地震滑坡危险性分析,表达式为:
$\begin{gathered}\ln I_a=3.190+4.553\left(M_{\mathrm{w}}-6\right)- \\15.487 \ln \left(M_{\mathrm{w}} / 6\right)-2.140 \ln (R+3)- \\0.643 \ln \left(V_{\mathrm{S} 30} / 500\right)-0.456 F_N+0.901 F_R\end{gathered} $
式中,Ia为阿里亚斯强度(单位m/s);MW为矩震级;R为震源到观测点的距离(单位km),当MW>6.0时,R为断层破裂距,MW≤6.0时,R为震源距;VS30为土壤剖面30 m深度的水平剪切波速度(单位m/s)(https://usgs.maps.arcgis.com);FN、FR为断层类型的虚拟变量,怒江断裂形成于早-中更新世,为右旋走滑逆冲断层[22],FN、FR分别取值0、1。
目前我国采用面波震级(MS)定义震源震级,本文采用李莹甄等[23]给出的转换关系MW=1.02MS-0.25,将设定的面波震级MS7.0转化为矩震级MW6.89。
由式(2)计算得到研究区静态安全系数FS(图 5),并对其进行统计分析。研究区中FS < 1.0的栅格不到5%,且这些栅格对应的地形坡度大于45°。参考Dreyfus等[24]提出的解决方案,将FS<1.0的栅格赋值为1.01,可避免迭代过程中人为导致研究区岩土体物理力学参数赋值过高的问题。由图 5可知,研究区静态安全系数较高的区域主要分布于坡度较缓的山间盆地,安全系数较低的区域主要分布于坡度较陡的河流两岸。
临界加速度αc是斜坡体的固有属性,与地震动无关,是一个能较好地刻画斜坡体滑坡敏感性的量化指标。通常斜坡体临界加速度越小,滑坡敏感性越高,斜坡体在较小外力作用下便可滑动;反之,临界加速度越大,滑坡敏感性越低,斜坡体相对稳定,斜坡体需要在较大作用力下才可滑动[25]。由式(1)计算得到研究区临界加速度(图 6),与静态安全系数分布大体对应,对于坡度大的区域,静态安全系数低,诱发斜坡失稳的临界加速度小,斜坡失稳的滑坡敏感性高。研究区斜坡体滑坡敏感性高的区域(αc≤0.3g)主要集中在独龙江、怒江、澜沧江等具有高陡边坡的河流两岸,滑坡敏感性相对较低的区域(αc>0.7g)则分布在研究区地形起伏平缓的山间盆地地区(图 6)。
基于地震动衰减关系得到的Ia是地震波传至基岩时所呈现的大小,然而地表不同地形条件对Ia具有缩小或放大作用[26]。因此,开展地震滑坡危险性分析时需对Ia进行地形校正,以得到斜坡场点真实的Ia。本文采用林柏伸等[27]提出的Ia地形校正公式:
$K=0.0052 H+1$
式中,H为地形起伏度(单位m);K为地形校正系数。
图 7(a)、7(b)分别为研究区地形起伏度和地形校正系数,结合式(3)得到研究区地形校正后的Ia,具体结果如图 7(c)所示。
利用临界加速度计算斜坡累积位移时,需将外荷载加速度与临界加速度的差值对时间进行二次积分,即可得到滑坡块体的永久位移:
$D_n=\iint_t\left[\alpha(t)-\alpha_c\right] \mathrm{d} t$
式中,Dn为滑块累积位移(单位cm);α(t)为t时刻的地震动加速度值(单位m/s2)。
由于我国强震台站数量有限并且空间分布稀疏,很难获得研究区每个工程场点的地震动参数。本文采用Jibson[28]建立的Newmark累积位移经验关系式:
$\lg D_n=2.401 \lg I_a-3.481 \lg \alpha_c-3.230$
图 8(a)为怒江州设定地震潜在地震滑坡Newmark位移分布。Newmark位移值可作为滑坡危险性的评判依据,位移值越大,表明地震滑坡危险性越高[29]。
在地震动荷载作用下,当斜坡位移积累到一定程度时,斜坡失稳沿滑动面发生滑动,从而诱发滑坡。本文采用马思远等[30]基于汶川地震滑坡数据库建立的斜坡失稳概率曲线:
$p=0.1169\left[1-\exp \left(-0.1803 D_n^{0.5165}\right)\right]$
对研究区地震滑坡Newmark位移进行概率转化,获得怒江州设定地震潜在地震滑坡失稳概率分布(图 8(b)),地震滑坡失稳概率值范围为0~11.69%。采用自然断点法将研究区划分为极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区(图 8(c)),各占研究区总面积的78.11%、12.23%、5.69%、3.39%,其中中、高危险区面积占比达9.08%,主要分布在怒江断裂两侧坡度较陡的斜坡区域。
将怒江州贡山县、福贡县、泸水市、兰坪县的自然村与公路承灾体数据叠加到设定地震滑坡危险性分布图上,分析设定地震潜在滑坡对研究区承灾体的影响。结果表明,研究区共有23个自然村和多条公路承灾体位于地震滑坡高危险区内。其中,贡山县有6个自然村,公路承灾体中的普拉底乡-茨开镇S237、茨开镇XQ32、捧当乡-丙中洛镇Z001路段位于地震滑坡高危险区内(图 9(a))。福贡县有10个自然村,匹河乡-子里甲乡S237、架科底乡-上帕镇XQ14路段处于高危险区内(图 9(b))。泸水市有7个自然村,六库镇-鲁掌镇XQ30、大兴地镇-洛本卓乡S237路段位于地震滑坡高危险区内(图 9(c))。兰坪县各自然村与公路承灾体均分布于地震滑坡低危险区内(图 9(d))。
由于怒江州独特的高山峡谷地貌、脆弱的斜坡岩土体环境和地震动衰减,在怒江断裂南段区域设定的MS7.0地震触发的地震滑坡,主要沿怒江断裂两侧分布。评估得到的潜在地震滑坡对怒江两岸的村庄和各级道路产生较大影响,极有可能造成部分道路交通中断。因此,在后期的城市发展与重大工程规划建设中,应提升位于高危险区内的自然村、公路承灾体的地震滑坡风险防治能力,科学规划工程结构建设布局,有效管控潜在地震滑坡产生的危害。
基于Newmark模型,获得怒江州斜坡体临界加速度,再以临界加速度表征坡体滑坡敏感性,并将其作为震前斜坡体稳定性指标。相比于其他方法,该方法以物理平衡分析为基础,具有较明确的物理含义[25]。研究区滑坡敏感性高的区域主要集中在独龙江、怒江、澜沧江河流两岸,滑坡敏感性相对低的区域分布在山间盆地。主要原因为强烈的构造活动、地震频发和强降雨事件使得河流两岸斜坡岩土体损伤弱化,雨水通过裂隙渗透导致斜坡岩土体孔隙水压增大,滑动面抗剪强度降低[31],再加上强烈的流水侵蚀作用,使得河流两岸坡度变陡,岩体具有显著的高位启动特征,为高滑坡敏感区的形成提供了条件。滑坡敏感性分布图在地震滑坡研究中具有广泛应用:一方面,在震后地震滑坡快速评估中,通过比较震后获取的地震动参数与坡体临界加速度的差值,可快速圈定震后灾区地震滑坡高危险区;另一方面,结合第五代地震动参数区划图,可开展不同超越概率下的中长期地震滑坡危险性区划[25]。
本文岩土体力学参数取值采用专家经验法,存在一定的主观性和不确定性。将研究区的出露地层依据岩性进行合并分组,并赋予岩石力学参数。该方法忽略了相同岩层岩性结构差异与岩性风化程度对滑坡形成的影响,并且未考虑岩土体的空间分布差异,其赋予的岩石力学参数与实际参数之间的偏差,使得斜坡抗震能力评估存在一定程度失真。因此需要在更多实地调查与统计工作的基础上,结合新技术、新方法,开展岩土体类型与物性参数的精细定量研究,获取更为精确的岩土体物理力学参数。同时,依托地震滑坡编录图进行岩体强度参数反演,优化岩石力学物理参数赋值[32]。
Newmark模型假设地震动为外部输入,未充分考虑地震动与滑坡体之间的相互作用。而滑坡体的变形和运动会影响地震波的传播和衰减,反之,地震波也会改变滑坡体的力学性质和稳定性。这种相互作用在复杂地形和地质条件下更为显著。因此,需充分考虑地震动与滑坡体相互耦合作用,以更准确地评估地震诱发滑坡的危险性。
利用马思远等[30]基于汶川地震滑坡数据库建立的斜坡失稳概率曲线,对怒江州设定地震潜在地震滑坡位移进行概率转化,实现了研究区潜在地震滑坡危险性概率预测。然而由特定地震滑坡环境回归分析建立的斜坡失稳概率曲线具有较强的地域性,推广运用到其他地区时,受到不同区域地震地质背景、工程场址潜在地震活动水平、地震动参数特征的影响,获得的地震滑坡预测结果存在一定的不确定性。因此在今后地震滑坡危险性研究中,应根据研究区历史地震强震资料,建立适合研究区特性的斜坡失稳概率曲线,用于地震滑坡失稳概率转换。
滑坡危险性评价是识别滑坡灾害的重要科学研究[33]。不同类型滑坡涉及的影响因子不同,确定合适的滑坡危险性评价因子具有重要意义[34]。本文基于Newmark模型对怒江州开展潜在地震滑坡危险性分析,仅考虑了坡体、地形条件和地震动的影响,未考虑不同地质条件、地震特征、人类工程活动、地貌因素、降雨等的影响,导致研究区地震滑坡危险性评价分析结果存在一定的人为性。因此应重视对潜在地震滑坡发生机理与发展规律的认识,选取科学合理的评价指标,并对科学指标进行系统分析,以期更加合理准确地评价潜在地震滑坡危险性。
本文使用Newmark模型,并结合斜坡失稳概率曲线,对怒江州开展设定MS7.0地震潜在地震滑坡危险性评估工作,获得以下认识:
1) 研究区地震滑坡敏感性高的区域主要集中在独龙江、怒江、澜沧江河流两岸,滑坡敏感性相对较低的区域分布在山间盆地。地震滑坡失稳概率值范围为0~11.69%,滑坡极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区面积分别占研究区总面积的78.11%、12.23%、5.69%、3.39%,其中中、高危险区面积占比达9.08%,主要分布在怒江断裂两侧坡度较陡的斜坡区。
2) 研究区内共有23个自然村,公路承灾体中贡山县普拉底乡-茨开镇S237、茨开镇XQ32、捧当乡-丙中洛镇Z001,福贡县匹河乡-子里甲乡S237、架科底乡-上帕镇XQ14,泸水市六库镇-鲁掌镇XQ30、大兴地镇-洛本卓乡S237路段位于地震滑坡高危险区内,面临较高的地震滑坡危险性。
3) 本文应用Newmark模型实现了对怒江州设定地震潜在滑坡空间分布的准确预测,但Newmark模型还存在模型参数不确定性和模型使用场景的局限性。在未来研究中,应开展更精确的地质调查、滑坡诱发机制的多元化研究,并将Newmark模型与机器学习方法、InSAR技术、水文模型相结合,优化模型参数,提高Newmark模型的准确性与实用性,使其在防灾减灾中发挥更大的作用。
  • 地震应急重点工作任务(CEAEDEM20250211)
  • 云南省地震局科技专项(2025ZX04)
  • 云南省地震科技创新团队(CXTD202406)
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.05.167
  • 接收时间:2025-05-22
  • 首发时间:2026-10-29
  • 出版时间:2026-04-15
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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-22
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地震应急重点工作任务(CEAEDEM20250211)
云南省地震局科技专项(2025ZX04)
云南省地震科技创新团队(CXTD202406)
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    1 中国地震局昆明地震预报研究所, 昆明, 650224
    2 云南省地震局, 昆明, 650224
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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