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Article(id=1322566955937157332, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322566927927591451, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2025.03.104, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1743004800000, receivedDateStr=2025-03-27, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793254134400, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1773504000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793254134400, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793254134400, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793254134400, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322566927927591451, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2026', volume='46', issue='3', pageStart='262', pageEnd='391', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1773504000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793254127723, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793254127723, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=368, endPage=374, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322566957681987797, articleId=1322566955937157332, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Seismic Intensity and BDS-Based Surface Deformation for the M6.8 Earthquake in Dingri, Xizang, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Utilizing continuous observation data from 41 strong-motion stations and 20 China Mobile Beidou CORS stations near the epicenter of the M6.8 Dingri, Xizang earthquake on January 7, 2025, this study systematically evaluates seismic intensity distribution and co-seismic surface deformation characteristics. Results indicate that the maximum instrumental intensity reached 8.0 degree, with significant spatial attenuation (1.67 degrees per 100 km) and anisotropy (isoseismal major axis trending nearly N-S). High-precision co-seismic deformation fields near the epicenter were accurately obtained through Beidou static undifferenced PPP and double-difference baseline network solutions, combined with a dual-epoch median displacement differencing method. Discrepancies with GPS observations were at millimeter level. The Beidou high-dynamic PPP mode effectively captured centimeter-level transient deformation signals. Furthermore, spatial patterns of co-seismic displacement fields from Beidou observations align with theoretical rupture model simulations, consistently demonstrating horizontal expansion west and east of the epicentral area and convergence toward the epicenter from the northern sector.

, authors=Yingying REN1, Jie CHEN1, Yantong FENG1, Xin JIANG1, Sainan YANG1, Yangfei HOU1, Ziyuan SONG1, authorsList=Yingying REN, Jie CHEN, Yantong FENG, Xin JIANG, Sainan YANG, Yangfei HOU, Ziyuan SONG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322566959753973993, articleId=1322566955937157332, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=西藏定日6.8级地震烈度与北斗地表形变场时空特征, columnId=1322566785874908034, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=特色栏目: 地震大地测量学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

利用2025-01-07西藏定日6.8级地震震中附近41个强震动台站和20个中国移动北斗CORS站的连续观测数据, 系统评估此次地震烈度分布与地表同震形变特征。地震烈度场结果表明, 最大仪器烈度达8.0度, 烈度呈现明显空间衰减(每百公里衰减1.67度)与各向异性特征(等震线长轴呈近南北走向)。基于北斗静态非差PPP和双差基线网解模型, 结合双时相中位值位移差分法, 精确获取震中附近区域的高精度地表同震形变场, 与GPS观测结果差异在毫米级。北斗高动态PPP模式可有效捕捉厘米级地震瞬态形变信号。此外, 北斗观测的地震同震位移场与地震理论破裂模型计算结果的空间模式一致, 均显示震中区西侧与东侧水平扩张, 北侧向震中汇聚的特征。

, authors=任营营1, 陈杰1, 冯彦同1, 蒋鑫1, 杨赛男1, 侯阳飞1, 宋子远1, authorsList=任营营, 陈杰, 冯彦同, 蒋鑫, 杨赛男, 侯阳飞, 宋子远, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

任营营, 博士, 工程师, 主要研究方向为高中低轨卫星精密定位与地球时空基准精化, E-mail:

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任营营, 博士, 工程师, 主要研究方向为高中低轨卫星精密定位与地球时空基准精化, E-mail:

"}, bioImg=null, bioContent=

任营营, 博士, 工程师, 主要研究方向为高中低轨卫星精密定位与地球时空基准精化, E-mail:

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GNSS data processing strategy

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项目基线网解静态PPP解动态PPP解
卫星系统BDS/GPSBDS/GPSBDS/GPS
观测时长11 d11 d3 h
采样间隔30 s30 s1 s
解类型静态单日解静态单日解动态历元解
预期精度毫米级0~2 cm厘米级
解算软件GAMIT/GLOBKPRIDE PPP-ARPRIDE PPP-AR
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GNSS数据解算策略

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项目基线网解静态PPP解动态PPP解
卫星系统BDS/GPSBDS/GPSBDS/GPS
观测时长11 d11 d3 h
采样间隔30 s30 s1 s
解类型静态单日解静态单日解动态历元解
预期精度毫米级0~2 cm厘米级
解算软件GAMIT/GLOBKPRIDE PPP-ARPRIDE PPP-AR
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Comparison of accuracy among different solution schemes

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方案RMS/mm
dNdEdU
GPS_NET-BDS_NET1.151.834.26
GPS_NET-GPS_PPP3.660.9110.24
GPS_NET-BDS_PPP4.231.119.56
GPS_PPP-BDS_PPP0.790.522.11
BDS_NET-BDS_PPP3.271.696.45
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不同解算方案精度对比

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方案RMS/mm
dNdEdU
GPS_NET-BDS_NET1.151.834.26
GPS_NET-GPS_PPP3.660.9110.24
GPS_NET-BDS_PPP4.231.119.56
GPS_PPP-BDS_PPP0.790.522.11
BDS_NET-BDS_PPP3.271.696.45
), ArticleFig(id=1322566972475298099, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566955937157332, language=EN, label=Tab. 3, caption=

Results of seismic fault parameters from different institutions

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来源经度/(°)纬度/(°)深度/kmMW断层走向/(°)断层倾角/(°)断层滑动角/(°)
USGS87.3628.6311.57.10349/18742/49-103/-78
GCMT87.4728.5612.07.10356/17342/48-88/92
IPGP87.3629.6314.07.16341/19651/44-113/-64
中国地震局地球物理研究所87.4728.4910.07.00346/17449/42-95/-85
中国地震台网中心87.4528.5012.07.20333/21225/76-147/-69
), ArticleFig(id=1322566972554989876, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566955937157332, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

不同机构的震断层参数结果

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来源经度/(°)纬度/(°)深度/kmMW断层走向/(°)断层倾角/(°)断层滑动角/(°)
USGS87.3628.6311.57.10349/18742/49-103/-78
GCMT87.4728.5612.07.10356/17342/48-88/92
IPGP87.3629.6314.07.16341/19651/44-113/-64
中国地震局地球物理研究所87.4728.4910.07.00346/17449/42-95/-85
中国地震台网中心87.4528.5012.07.20333/21225/76-147/-69
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西藏定日6.8级地震烈度与北斗地表形变场时空特征
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任营营 1 , 陈杰 1 , 冯彦同 1 , 蒋鑫 1 , 杨赛男 1 , 侯阳飞 1 , 宋子远 1
大地测量与地球动力学 | 特色栏目: 地震大地测量学 2026,46(3): 368-374
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大地测量与地球动力学 |特色栏目: 地震大地测量学 2026 , 46 (3) : 368 -374
西藏定日6.8级地震烈度与北斗地表形变场时空特征
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任营营, 博士, 工程师, 主要研究方向为高中低轨卫星精密定位与地球时空基准精化, E-mail:

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任营营, 博士, 工程师, 主要研究方向为高中低轨卫星精密定位与地球时空基准精化, E-mail:

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任营营1 , 陈杰1, 冯彦同1, 蒋鑫1, 杨赛男1, 侯阳飞1, 宋子远1
作者信息
  • 1 中移(上海)信息通信科技有限公司, 上海, 201210
作者简介:

任营营, 博士, 工程师, 主要研究方向为高中低轨卫星精密定位与地球时空基准精化, E-mail:

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Seismic Intensity and BDS-Based Surface Deformation for the M6.8 Earthquake in Dingri, Xizang
Yingying REN1 , Jie CHEN1, Yantong FENG1, Xin JIANG1, Sainan YANG1, Yangfei HOU1, Ziyuan SONG1
Affiliations
  • 1 China Mobile (Shanghai) Information and Communication Technology Co Ltd, Shanghai 201210, China
出版时间: 2026-03-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.03.104
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摘要
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利用2025-01-07西藏定日6.8级地震震中附近41个强震动台站和20个中国移动北斗CORS站的连续观测数据, 系统评估此次地震烈度分布与地表同震形变特征。地震烈度场结果表明, 最大仪器烈度达8.0度, 烈度呈现明显空间衰减(每百公里衰减1.67度)与各向异性特征(等震线长轴呈近南北走向)。基于北斗静态非差PPP和双差基线网解模型, 结合双时相中位值位移差分法, 精确获取震中附近区域的高精度地表同震形变场, 与GPS观测结果差异在毫米级。北斗高动态PPP模式可有效捕捉厘米级地震瞬态形变信号。此外, 北斗观测的地震同震位移场与地震理论破裂模型计算结果的空间模式一致, 均显示震中区西侧与东侧水平扩张, 北侧向震中汇聚的特征。

北斗  /  定日地震  /  烈度场  /  时序分析  /  形变场

Utilizing continuous observation data from 41 strong-motion stations and 20 China Mobile Beidou CORS stations near the epicenter of the M6.8 Dingri, Xizang earthquake on January 7, 2025, this study systematically evaluates seismic intensity distribution and co-seismic surface deformation characteristics. Results indicate that the maximum instrumental intensity reached 8.0 degree, with significant spatial attenuation (1.67 degrees per 100 km) and anisotropy (isoseismal major axis trending nearly N-S). High-precision co-seismic deformation fields near the epicenter were accurately obtained through Beidou static undifferenced PPP and double-difference baseline network solutions, combined with a dual-epoch median displacement differencing method. Discrepancies with GPS observations were at millimeter level. The Beidou high-dynamic PPP mode effectively captured centimeter-level transient deformation signals. Furthermore, spatial patterns of co-seismic displacement fields from Beidou observations align with theoretical rupture model simulations, consistently demonstrating horizontal expansion west and east of the epicentral area and convergence toward the epicenter from the northern sector.

BDS  /  Dingri earthquake  /  intensity field  /  time series analysis  /  deformation field
任营营, 陈杰, 冯彦同, 蒋鑫, 杨赛男, 侯阳飞, 宋子远. 西藏定日6.8级地震烈度与北斗地表形变场时空特征. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (3) : 368 -374 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.03.104
Yingying REN, Jie CHEN, Yantong FENG, Xin JIANG, Sainan YANG, Yangfei HOU, Ziyuan SONG. Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Seismic Intensity and BDS-Based Surface Deformation for the M6.8 Earthquake in Dingri, Xizang[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (3) : 368 -374 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.03.104
正文
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地震是地球内部应力长期积累并突然释放的现象，其破坏性强、影响范围广，严重威胁人类的生命财产安全。青藏高原位于印度板块与欧亚板块的碰撞前缘，区域构造复杂、地震活动频繁[1]，对地震监测及防灾减灾提出了较高要求。据中国地震台网中心测定，2025-01-07 09:05西藏日喀则市定日县(87.45°E，28.50°N)发生6.8级地震，震源深度约为10 km。此次定日6.8级地震造成了明显的地表形变，并对区域基础设施与社会经济产生了重要影响。
近年来，BDS凭借其高精度、高稳定性和自主可控的优势，在地质灾害监测领域的应用逐步深化，为地震监测领域提供了新的技术手段[2]。2020年以来，中国移动基于自身丰富的移动通信基站资源，在全国范围内建成约4 400座连续运行参考站(CORS)，形成了覆盖全国的高精度定位服务网，并支持单北斗系统独立运行，这为北斗系统在地质灾害监测领域的应用奠定了坚实基础。因此，结合此次西藏定日6.8级地震事件，系统评估北斗系统在地壳形变监测中的精度表现和应用潜力，具有重要的现实意义和科学价值。
基于上述背景，本文利用震中附近约40个强震动观测台站的地震动数据与20个中国移动CORS站的GNSS观测数据，深入分析此次地震的烈度场空间分布特征和地表同震形变场时空特征，旨在系统验证北斗卫星系统在地震形变监测中的精度优势与可靠性，为地震灾害监测、预警及防灾减灾工作提供理论依据与实践支撑。
1 研究区域构造背景
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西藏定日6.8级地震的位置处于喜马拉雅构造带北侧，该区域是印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞的前缘地带。从构造动力学的角度分析，印度板块正以40 mm/a的速度向北俯冲，这一过程导致青藏高原强烈隆升，并使板块边缘附近的地震活动变得十分剧烈[3-4]。
此次地震震中区域同时受到南北向的挤压应力以及东西向的拉张应力作用。这种应力环境促使高原内部，尤其是藏南地区，发育出一系列近南北走向的裂谷系统。距离震中最近的主要活动构造为登么错断裂，该断裂在近年表现活跃，曾在大震发生后进入活跃期，是申扎-定结断裂带南段中规模较大的地堑构造之一。申扎-定结断裂带是青藏高原内部一条重要的南北向伸展构造，属于藏南拆离体系的一部分。该断裂带由多条地堑与地垒交错组成，呈现出堑垒式的构造格局。该区域地震活动频繁，近年多次发生5级以上的强震，且震源机制多为正断层型，反映出其与区域性伸展构造背景之间的高度一致性。已公布的震源机制解表明[5-6]，此次定日地震为走向近乎垂直于板块边界的正断型地震。
图 1给出了西藏定日6.8级地震周边区域历史地震分布。据统计，在过去100 a，距离本次地震震中200 km范围内约发生了10次6级以上的大地震，如位于本次地震西南方向约160 km的2015年尼泊尔7.2级地震(系2015年7.8级尼泊尔地震的余震)、1934年8.0级地震。根据历史地震目录，该区域内共发生了236次3.0级及以上地震，其中7.0~8.0级地震2次，6.0~6.9级地震8次，5.0~5.9级地震35次，4.0~4.9级地震54次，3.0~3.9级地震138次。
2 研究数据
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本研究数据来自地震监测台站与GNSS观测基站(图 2，图中数字表示仪器烈度)。
1) 地震监测台站强震动数据集。研究区域共布设41个近场地震观测台站，完整记录了地震动峰值加速度(PGA)、峰值速度(PGV)和仪器烈度等关键参数[7]。初步分析可知，研究区域内最大仪器烈度达8.0度，该极值点位于震中东北方向约67 km处的日喀则市拉孜县曲下镇，表现出了显著的地震动空间衰减特征。
2) 基准站GNSS观测数据集。研究同时获取了震区20个多系统GNSS测站(兼容BDS/GPS等卫星系统)的连续观测数据，观测时段为2023-01-02—11。XZCC站距震中最近，约34 km，为同震形变分析提供了高精度的近场观测数据。
3 地震烈度分布特征
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通过对震动参数的空间分布特征进行分析，系统揭示了总峰值速度与总峰值加速度随震中距的衰减规律(图 3)。分析表明，PGV与PGA随震中距呈现显著负指数衰减关系，其相关系数分别达到0.79和0.93。在近场区域(震中距＜100 km)，地震动参数呈现剧烈衰减特征，反映地震动能量在近源区的快速耗散过程。当震中距超过200 km时，PGV与PGA的衰减速率趋于稳定(PGV＜2 cm/s，PGA＜15 cm/s2)，这一现象主要受地震波几何扩散效应减弱和区域场地响应特性共同作用的影响。
为系统揭示地震动强度参数的衰减特征，本研究基于GB/T 17742—2020《中国地震烈度表》中烈度计算标准，构建震中距-烈度衰减数据集。图 4定量表征了仪器烈度随震中距的空间衰减规律，采用最小二乘法建立的线性回归模型(y=－0.016 7x+7.205 7, R2=0.82)显示，震中距每增加100 km，烈度衰减约1.67度。残差分析结果也表明，拟合残差基本服从正态分布，拟合中误差为0.62，其中95%置信区间残差绝对值小于1，验证了模型在±1烈度范围内的可靠性。
为系统揭示震区地震动场的空间异质性特征，基于实测仪器烈度数据，构建分辨率为0.1°×0.1°的高分辨率格网模型，并采用三次样条插值算法实现仪器烈度的空间连续场重构。图 5展示了西藏定日6.8级地震的烈度分布。结果表明，震中极震区最大仪器烈度超过7.5度，6度及以上区域主要分布在震中100 km范围内，烈度衰减具有明显的各向异性，等震线长轴呈近南北走向。地震发生后，中国地震局开展实地地震灾害调查，并结合断裂构造、仪器烈度、余震分布等多源数据发布了烈度图。实际调查显示，地震造成约26 km地表破裂，最高烈度为9度，等震线呈近南北走向，长约191 km、宽约152 km。研究结果与调查成果基本一致，相互印证，进一步验证了仪器烈度重建方法的可靠性。
4 北斗地表形变特征
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4.1 北斗观测数据处理
精密单点定位技术(PPP)能够充分利用多星系统数据，提高解算精度和可靠性，尤其在观测时长较短的情况下，仍能获得较高的解算精度。双差基线网解模式则在长基线、复杂环境下具有良好的适应性，能够有效消除多种误差源，提高解算结果的稳定性和一致性。2种模式结合使用，充分发挥各自优势，可为地震形变监测提供高精度、高可靠性的数据支持。
4.1.1 非差PPP模型
PPP利用单台接收机非差观测值(伪距和载波相位)，结合精密卫星轨道和钟差产品，通过参数估计实现高精度定位，无需依赖基准站。对于从测站r到卫星s的双频观测数据，对应于第i(i=1, 2, …)频率的伪距和载波相位原始观测方程为[8-9]：
$\left\{\begin{aligned}P_{r, i}^s= & \rho_r^s+c\left(\mathtt{δ} t_r-\mathtt{δ} t^s\right)+\frac{A}{f_i^2}+d_{r, i}-d_i^s+\varepsilon \\L_{r, i}^s= & \rho_r^s+c\left(\mathtt{δ} t_r-\mathtt{δ} t^s\right)-\frac{A}{f_i^2}+\lambda_i N_{r, i}^s+ \\& b_{r, i}-b_i^s+\varepsilon\end{aligned}\right.$
式中，Pr, is为伪距观测值；Lr, is为相位观测值；ρrs为站星距离；c为光速；δtr和δts分别为接收机钟差和卫星钟差；$\frac{A}{f_i^2}$为一阶电离层延迟；fi和λi为第i频率及其相应的波长；N为整周模糊度；dr, i和dis表示第i频率上由硬件延迟引起的接收机端和卫星端的伪距偏差；br, i和bis为第i频率上由硬件延迟引起的接收机端和卫星端的相位偏差；ε为观测噪声及其他误差。
4.1.2 双差基线模型
双差基线模型基于双差观测值消除卫星/接收机钟差及大气延迟等公共误差，通过多站联合平差获取基线向量相对坐标。对2个接收机(i和j)和2颗卫星(p和q)的原始载波相位观测值进行2次差分，得到双差载波相位观测方程如下[10-11]：
$\begin{gathered}\nabla \Delta L_{\mathrm{IF}}^{i j, p q}=\nabla \Delta \rho^{i j, p q}+\lambda \nabla \Delta N^{i j, p q}+ \\\nabla \Delta T^{i j, p q}+\nabla \Delta \varepsilon^{i j, p q}\end{gathered}$
式中，$\nabla \Delta \rho^{i j, p q}$为双差几何距离；λ为波长；$\nabla \Delta N^{i j, p q}$为双差模糊度；$\nabla \Delta T^{i j, p q}$为双差对流层延迟；$\nabla \Delta \varepsilon^{i j, p q}$为双差观测噪声。
4.1.3 GNSS解算策略
采用非差PPP和双差基线网解2种模式进行GNSS数据解算，解算策略见表 1。
4.2 地表同震位移计算
基于双时相中位值位移差分法(DEMDD)解算地表同震位移。该方法通过构建地震事件前后观测时窗，分别提取各GNSS基站坐标序列的中位数统计量并进行差分处理，可有效抑制噪声干扰和异常波动，从而精确提取地震引发的瞬态位移信号。相较于传统的均值差分法，中位数统计量对离群值具有更强的鲁棒性，这种特性使其能够更好地捕捉地震破裂过程中具有显著非稳态特征的突发性位移，适用于地震同震形变的定量反演研究。具体解算步骤如下：
1) 时序数据分段。针对GNSS坐标时序的时间分辨率差异，采用动态时间窗划分策略界定震前-震后时段。针对日分辨率数据，震前时段选取震前N d(N＞3)至震前1 d的连续坐标解序列，用于构建形变背景场；震后时段选取震后1 d至震后N d(N＞3)的坐标解序列，以捕捉同震形变及早期余滑信号。针对秒分辨率数据，震前时段截取震前K h(K＞1)至震前1 min的高频坐标解，消除仪器噪声并建立动态基准；震后时段划定震后1 min至震后L h(L＞1)的观测窗口，用于分析震源破裂过程的瞬时响应特征。
2) 三维同震位移计算。根据GNSS坐标时间序列的震相分割结果，提取震前稳态阶段与震后形变阶段的坐标中位值，通过空间向量差分运算获得地震同震三维位移场向量ΔD：
$\Delta \boldsymbol{D}=\left[\begin{array}{c}\Delta N \\\Delta E \\\Delta U\end{array}\right]\left[\begin{array}{c}\operatorname{median}\left(N_{i+1}, N_{i+2} \cdots N_{i+n_{\text {post }}}\right)- \\\operatorname{median}\left(N_{i-1}, N_{i-2} \cdots N_{i-n_{\text {pre }}}\right. \\\operatorname{median}\left(E_{i+1}, E_{i+2} \cdots E_{i+n_{\text {post }}}\right)- \\\operatorname{median}\left(E_{i-1}, E_{i-2} \cdots E_{i-n_{\text {pre }}}\right) \\\operatorname{median}\left(U_{i+1}, U_{i+2} \cdots U_{i+n_{\text {post }}}\right)- \\\operatorname{median}\left(U_{i-1}, U_{i-2} \cdots U_{i-n_{\text {pre }}}\right)\end{array}\right]$
式中，ΔN、ΔE、ΔU分别为北、东、天方向的同震位移；N、E、U分别为北、东、天方向的坐标序列；i为地震发生时刻；npre、npost分别为震前和震后序列坐标数量。
水平ΔDH与垂直位移ΔDV分解如下：
$\Delta D_H=\sqrt{\Delta N^2+\Delta E^2}, \Delta D_V=\Delta U$
3) 形变不确定性评估。基于稳健统计理论与误差传播定律，构建同震位移场不确定度的量化模型，并建立如下三维同震位移不确定度的解析表达式：
$\sigma_{\Delta D} \approx \sqrt{\frac{\pi}{2}\left(\frac{\sigma_{\mathrm{pre}}^2}{n_{\mathrm{pre}}}+\frac{\sigma_{\mathrm{post}}^2}{n_{\mathrm{post}}}\right)}$
式中，σΔD为同震位移中误差；σpre2、σpost2分别为震前和震后坐标序列样本标准方差。
4.3 地表同震形变场分析
基于§4.1介绍的北斗观测数据处理策略，对研究区域内的北斗观测数据实施静态后处理。分别采用非差PPP与双差基线解算模式，获取测站单日解坐标时间序列。以震中附近XZDY站为例(震中距约36 km)，其在2025-01-07地震事件当日呈现显著的地壳位移响应，北、东、垂向分量分别检测到2.5 cm、17.5 cm和1.4 cm的累积位移量。
为精确提取同震形变信号，基于§4.2构建的双时相中位值位移差分模型进行地表位移解算。此外，为系统评估北斗卫星导航系统在地震形变监测中的精度和可靠性，同步开展GPS数据解算，以构建多源数据对比验证体系。
如图 6所示，西藏定日6.8级地震的同震水平位移场清晰呈现。图中格网区域为断层投影面，红色表示断层的下盘。经BDS/GPS四种解算方案(GPS_NET、GPS_PPP、BDS_NET、BDS_PPP)计算所得的位移场，在形变模式与运动学特征方面展现出高度一致性。进一步分析水平位移场可见，震中区西侧与东侧呈现出显著的水平扩张趋势，而北侧区域则表现为向震中汇聚的运动特征。
此外，已有研究基于震区及周边的GNSS应急流动观测、陆态网络观测及Sentinel-1 InSAR数据，对本次地震的同震形变场进行了分析[12-14]。结果表明，GNSS同震位移场以震中为中心，呈现显著的东西向拉张特征：震中东侧约32 km处的测站发生约15 cm的东向位移，西侧约40 km处的测站则出现约12 cm的西向位移，其他测站也观测到不同幅度的位移；InSAR升轨形变量范围为－1.4~0.3 m，降轨为－1.1~0.8 m。GNSS与InSAR的观测结果共同揭示了本次地震具有明显的东西向和垂向变形特征，反映出典型的正断层破裂机制。
表 2比较了不同解算方案的同震位移残差RMS。分析结果表明，无论采用BDS还是GPS的PPP或基线双差模式，其残差RMS均小于1 cm。这一结果验证了北斗系统在地壳形变监测中能够达到静态毫米级的精度水平。
以GPS_NET结果作为对比，图 7绘制了各基站BDS/GPS同震位移残差的柱状图。从图中可以清晰地看出，各基站北斗同震位移结果与GPS的差异在水平方向上小于5 mm，在垂直方向上整体小于1 cm。
此外，为进一步探索北斗PPP在地震形变动态监测中的应用潜力，选取基站地震发生时刻前后3 h的数据进行BDS动态PPP解算和GPS解算(图 8)。可以看出，在地震发生时刻，基站的水平位置记录到了显著的位移抖动与阶跃现象。以XZDY和XZSJ站为例，BDS和GPS坐标序列结果显示，水平方向差异整体小于3 cm，垂向差异整体小于5 cm。与单系统相比，BDS+GPS组合动态PPP解序列的精度更为可靠。
由于动态PPP的精度有限，其整体处于厘米级水平，因此无法用于探测毫米级的微形变位移。通过分析20个测站的短时瞬态同震位移场结果，利用本文介绍的DEMDD法，北斗动态PPP技术方案能够有效揭示水平方向超过3 cm的同震位移形变运动特征。
4.4 地震破裂模型对比评估
地震发生后，全球多个地震研究中心陆续公布了本次事件的相关震源信息(表 3)。由于各机构采用的观测资料、处理方法及反演模型存在差异，所得到的震源参数略有不同，但机制类型具有高度一致性，均指示此次地震为以近南北走向正断层为主、伴有一定走滑分量的张性破裂事件。
采用对比验证方法对北斗同震形变场的精度与可靠性进行系统评估。基于USGS发布的断层破裂模型，通过弹性半空间模型数值模拟方法[15]，计算获得西藏定日6.8级地震在震源区周边(85°~90°E，27°~30°N)的理论同震位移场(图 9)。数值模拟采用0.2°×0.2°的均匀格网划分方案，有效覆盖了主要形变区域。
通过与图 6所示的北斗同震形变场进行对比分析发现，尽管北斗观测网站在研究区的空间密度相对较低，但观测形变场与理论位移场在空间分布格局和运动模式上呈现出一致性。具体表现为：震中区西侧与东侧均呈现显著水平向外扩张趋势，而北侧区域则显示出向震中汇聚的运动特征。这种空间运动模式的一致性，不仅验证了断层破裂模型的合理性，也从实测数据层面证实了北斗地表形变监测方案在捕捉地壳运动细节方面具有可靠的观测精度。
5 结语
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本文以2025年西藏定日6.8级地震为研究对象，综合利用震中附近区域40个强震动观测台站记录与20个中国移动北斗CORS站观测数据，分析此次地震的烈度分布规律及北斗地表同震形变响应特征，深入探讨了北斗系统在地震形变监测中的可行性与可靠性，主要结论如下：
1) 地震烈度场特征表明，最大仪器烈度达8.0度，烈度衰减符合线性规律(y=－0.016 7x+7.205 7, R2=0.82)，且呈现显著各向异性特征，等震线长轴呈近南北走向。
2) 北斗静态解算模式(非差PPP解与双差基线网解)的单日解时间序列显示，其可有效捕捉毫米级同震形变信号。距离震中约36 km的XZDY站在北向检测到17.5 cm的位移偏移量。通过DEMDD法解算的同震位移场表明，震中区西侧与东侧呈现水平扩张趋势，北侧则表现为向震中汇聚特征，与断层闭锁-解锁动力学过程一致。此外，北斗与GPS观测结果高度一致，同震位移差异在毫米级。
3) 北斗动态PPP解算结果表明，其水平向定位精度优于3 cm，垂直向精度优于5 cm，与GPS动态监测结果具有厘米级一致性。秒级采样间隔的动态坐标序列能够有效捕捉地震触发的厘米级地表瞬态位移，为地震预警系统提供亚分钟级响应能力。
4) 北斗观测的地震同震位移场与地震理论破裂模型计算结果的空间模式表现一致，进一步证实了北斗系统在捕捉地壳精细运动细节方面的可靠性与精度优势。
北斗卫星导航系统凭借其毫米级静态监测精度、厘米级动态响应能力及全球服务的特性，可突破偏远地区地震形变监测的技术瓶颈，未来可为青藏高原及“一带一路”地震高风险区的防灾减灾提供中国方案。
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1
郝梅煊, 潘正洋, 王武星, 等. 青藏高原东南缘三维地壳形变特征与地震活动[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025, 45 (3): 244- 251
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2026年第46卷第3期
28
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.03.104
  • 接收时间：2025-03-27
  • 首发时间：2026-10-29
  • 出版时间：2026-03-15
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  • 收稿日期：2025-03-27
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导航与时空技术国家级重点实验室自主基金(WXDHZZJJ20250104)
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    1 中移(上海)信息通信科技有限公司, 上海, 201210
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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