Article(id=1322566812546482996, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322566763112415546, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.603, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1736352000000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-09, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793254100213, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1768406400000, pubDateStr=2026-01-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793254100213, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793254100213, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793254100213, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322566763112415546, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2026', volume='46', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='138', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1768406400000', pubDateStr='2026-01-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793254088427, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793254088427, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=106, endPage=114, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322566812739420981, articleId=1322566812546482996, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Seismic Anomaly Characteristics and Prediction Efficiency Evaluation of Trace Hydrogen in the Fault Zone of Northwestern Yunnan, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Based on the statistical analysis, correlation fitting and preprocessing of high-precision continuous observation data of four trace hydrogen observation points in fault zones of northwestern Yunnan over the past five years, we evaluate the seismic prediction efficiency of observational data, and analyze the characteristics and causes of trace hydrogen concentration anomalies related to earthquakes combining with previous studies. The results show that: 1) The concentration variations of hydrogen escaping from hot springs in northwestern Yunnan are correlated with temperature and air pressure, showing distinct annual variation features. In contrast, hydrogen escaping from soil is essentially uncorrelated with meteorological elements. Comparison with previous studies, there is a significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of trace hydrogen concentration in fault zones, which is not controlled by a single factor. 2) All of four trace hydrogen observation points in northwestern Yunnan are effective seismic prediction indicators with statistical significance. The short-term prediction effect of hydrogen escaping from soil is better but with relatively lower credibility. The prediction efficiency of hydrogen escaping from hot springs is mainly in medium to long term, with relatively higher credibility. 3) There is a close correlation between hydrogen anomalies in fault zones and seismic activities in northwestern Yunnan. Seismic precursory anomalies typically manifest as sudden increases or sawtooth fluctuations. Due to differences in hydrogen sources, escaping processes, and geothermal storage temperatures in different regions, the geochemical background values of hydrogen escaping from hot springs and soil also exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity.

, authors=Hetang HEI1, 2, Yuan ZHANG1, Qing LI1, Qiong GAO1, Yongzhuang KUANG3, Meifang LI4, Jiamei DENG1, authorsList=Hetang HEI, Yuan ZHANG, Qing LI, Qiong GAO, Yongzhuang KUANG, Meifang LI, Jiamei DENG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322566814253564738, articleId=1322566812546482996, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=CN, title=滇西北断裂带痕量氢地震异常特征分析及预报效能评价, columnId=1281933709121138897, journalTitle=大地测量与地球动力学, columnName=地球动力学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

在滇西北地区4个断裂带痕量氢观测点近5 a全时段高精度连续观测数据统计分析、相关性拟合及预处理的基础上,对观测数据开展地震预报效能评价,并结合效能评价结果与前人研究结果分析痕量氢浓度地震异常特征及原因。结果表明:1)滇西北地区温泉逸出氢气浓度变化与气温、气压具有一定的相关性,呈现出明显的年变特征,而土壤逸出氢气则与气象要素基本不相关;对比前人研究表明,断裂带痕量氢浓度规律具有显著的空间异质性,其受控因素并非单一模式。2)滇西北地区4个痕量氢观测点均为具有统计检验意义的有效地震预测指标,其中土壤逸出氢气短期预测效果更好,可信度却较低;温泉逸出氢气的预测效能则以中长期为主,可信度较高。3)滇西北地区断裂带氢气异常与地震活动密切相关,地震前兆异常通常表现为突然增高或锯齿状起伏;由于氢气来源、逸出过程和不同地区地储温度等存在差异,温泉逸出氢气与土壤逸出氢气的地球化学背景值同样具有显著的空间异质性。

, authors=黑贺堂1, 2, 张源1, 李庆1, 高琼1, 匡泳庄3, 李梅芳4, 邓嘉美1, authorsList=黑贺堂, 张源, 李庆, 高琼, 匡泳庄, 李梅芳, 邓嘉美, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

黑贺堂, 工程师, 主要从事地震监测预报与地震地质研究, E-mail:

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label=Fig. 1, caption=Main geological structures, location of hydrogen observation points, and distribution of ML ≥ 3.0 earthquakes in the study area from January 2019 to December 2023, figureFileSmall=bGYz/Nq9zlHEQn07otoNsA==, figureFileBig=aPrYe1/JBY11eDCYJbokkA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566817474790268, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=CN, label=图1, caption=研究区主要地质构造、氢气观测点位置及2019-01-2023-12 ML≥3.0地震分布, figureFileSmall=bGYz/Nq9zlHEQn07otoNsA==, figureFileBig=aPrYe1/JBY11eDCYJbokkA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566817718059901, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=Structure of the observation devices, figureFileSmall=Pe9ihQ2cEFbjsBx4RdNhKw==, figureFileBig=AkQVk7yq9fB9sQObAOC68A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566817814528894, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=CN, label=图2, caption=观测装置结构, figureFileSmall=Pe9ihQ2cEFbjsBx4RdNhKw==, figureFileBig=AkQVk7yq9fB9sQObAOC68A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566817890026367, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=EN, label=Fig. 3, caption=Distribution of hydrogen concentration measurement values, figureFileSmall=l6+zzMx1XcMPmt6iFGeAAA==, figureFileBig=5VSP/q5ZML1/WiDqUp9l4Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566817986495360, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=CN, label=图3, caption=氢浓度测值分布, figureFileSmall=l6+zzMx1XcMPmt6iFGeAAA==, figureFileBig=5VSP/q5ZML1/WiDqUp9l4Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566818053604225, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=EN, label=Fig. 4, caption=Original hydrogen concentration variation curves of four monitoring points and preprocessed variation curves of hot spring gases, figureFileSmall=EnFZyfe6OpKnX/NIw6PmHA==, figureFileBig=rEMdHKBn2bYzoVAauglwHA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566818120713090, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=CN, label=图4, caption=4个观测点氢气浓度原始变化曲线及温泉气预处理变化曲线, figureFileSmall=EnFZyfe6OpKnX/NIw6PmHA==, figureFileBig=rEMdHKBn2bYzoVAauglwHA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566818187821955, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=EN, label=Fig. 5, caption=The multi-year periodic component of trace hydrogen concentration in northwestern Yunnan, figureFileSmall=7nvyeuZxiqdrel2BOasQPQ==, figureFileBig=K25u/3cp/VDfTQ/5P3/9IQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566818263319428, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=CN, label=图5, caption=滇西北地区痕量氢浓度多年周期成分分析结果, figureFileSmall=7nvyeuZxiqdrel2BOasQPQ==, figureFileBig=K25u/3cp/VDfTQ/5P3/9IQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566818355594117, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=EN, label=Fig. 6, caption=Results of Molchan test, figureFileSmall=7XKL7OrE9lobkDb+l4bi9A==, figureFileBig=bCt98m+b3UJeIP3mmVeMIg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566818452063110, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=CN, label=图6, caption=Molchan检验结果, figureFileSmall=7XKL7OrE9lobkDb+l4bi9A==, figureFileBig=bCt98m+b3UJeIP3mmVeMIg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322566818523366279, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322566812546482996, language=EN, label=Tab. 1, caption=

Catalog of earthquakes with MS≥4.0 in northwestern Yunnan

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号发震时间震中位置发震地点与震级重定位深度/km发震类型
经度/(°)纬度/(°)
12019-02-02100.9327.12宁蒗县4.515走滑型
22019-07-21100.6226.17永胜县4.810走滑型
32019-11-2599.7025.97洱源县4.712走滑型
42021-05-1399.2324.43漾濞县4.68走滑型
52021-05-2199.8725.67漾濞县6.48走滑型
62022-01-02100.6527.78宁蒗县5.510走滑型
72022-09-2398.7724.78龙陵县4.79走滑型
82023-05-0299.2825.35隆阳区5.210走滑型
92023-12-0298.0824.27芒市5.010走滑型
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滇西北地区MS≥4.0地震目录

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序号发震时间震中位置发震地点与震级重定位深度/km发震类型
经度/(°)纬度/(°)
12019-02-02100.9327.12宁蒗县4.515走滑型
22019-07-21100.6226.17永胜县4.810走滑型
32019-11-2599.7025.97洱源县4.712走滑型
42021-05-1399.2324.43漾濞县4.68走滑型
52021-05-2199.8725.67漾濞县6.48走滑型
62022-01-02100.6527.78宁蒗县5.510走滑型
72022-09-2398.7724.78龙陵县4.79走滑型
82023-05-0299.2825.35隆阳区5.210走滑型
92023-12-0298.0824.27芒市5.010走滑型
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Evaluation results of prediction efficiency

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观测点预测窗长/d阈值倍率RR0效能检验报对次数虚报次数漏报次数漏报率/%
汝南301.30.141 00.247 7未通过23571.4
601.00.460 10.386 4通过40342.9
801.20.461 30.386 4通过40342.9
1201.20.413 60.386 4通过40342.9
1501.40.413 60.386 4通过40342.9
1801.20.390 60.386 4通过40342.9
3602.40.342 90.386 4未通过40342.9
洱源301.20.500 70.555 0未通过31125.0
601.40.558 00.555 0通过30125.0
901.50.581 90.555 0通过30125.0
1201.60.581 90.555 0通过30125.0
1501.70.581 90.555 0通过30125.0
1701.10.605 30.601 0通过4000
3601.60.468 00.601 0未通过4000
弥渡301.20.446 50.452 0未通过32240.0
501.20.453 70.452 0通过31240.0
901.20.375 30.452 0未通过31240.0
1201.20.358 90.452 0未通过31240.0
1501.20.429 60.452 0未通过30240.0
1801.20.429 60.452 0未通过30240.0
3601.90.505 70.515 0未通过40125.0
保山302.80.113 20.137 8未通过11685.7
602.40.242 20.247 7未通过20571.4
901.20.342 10.423 2未通过53228.6
1201.20.276 70.423 2未通过53228.6
1501.80.246 00.328 5未通过31457.1
1801.50.531 10.435 1通过60114.2
3601.70.447 50.435 1通过60114.2
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预报效能评价结果

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观测点预测窗长/d阈值倍率RR0效能检验报对次数虚报次数漏报次数漏报率/%
汝南301.30.141 00.247 7未通过23571.4
601.00.460 10.386 4通过40342.9
801.20.461 30.386 4通过40342.9
1201.20.413 60.386 4通过40342.9
1501.40.413 60.386 4通过40342.9
1801.20.390 60.386 4通过40342.9
3602.40.342 90.386 4未通过40342.9
洱源301.20.500 70.555 0未通过31125.0
601.40.558 00.555 0通过30125.0
901.50.581 90.555 0通过30125.0
1201.60.581 90.555 0通过30125.0
1501.70.581 90.555 0通过30125.0
1701.10.605 30.601 0通过4000
3601.60.468 00.601 0未通过4000
弥渡301.20.446 50.452 0未通过32240.0
501.20.453 70.452 0通过31240.0
901.20.375 30.452 0未通过31240.0
1201.20.358 90.452 0未通过31240.0
1501.20.429 60.452 0未通过30240.0
1801.20.429 60.452 0未通过30240.0
3601.90.505 70.515 0未通过40125.0
保山302.80.113 20.137 8未通过11685.7
602.40.242 20.247 7未通过20571.4
901.20.342 10.423 2未通过53228.6
1201.20.276 70.423 2未通过53228.6
1501.80.246 00.328 5未通过31457.1
1801.50.531 10.435 1通过60114.2
3601.70.447 50.435 1通过60114.2
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Trace hydrogen anomaly changes along fault zones in northwestern Yunnan and corresponding earthquakes

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观测点研究地震异常持续时间震中距/km异常特征
汝南2019-02-02宁蒗MS4.52019-01-05-2019-02-0985突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值-波动上升下降
2019-07-21永胜MS4.82019-06-24-2019-07-2082突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值
2019-11-25洱源MS4.72019-10-11-2019-10-26102突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复
2021-05-21漾濞MS6.4无异常115无异常
2022-01-02宁蒗MS5.5无异常135无异常
2023-05-02隆阳MS5.2无异常168无异常
2023-12-02芒市MS5.02023-08-04-2023-10-20300突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复、波动幅度大
洱源2021-05-21漾濞MS6.42021-02-21-2021-05-0851突降超出阈值低值-持续低值波动-突升恢复-突降超出阈值低值
2022-01-02宁蒗MS5.52021-10-18-2022-02-10198突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值-在高值波动上升下降
2023-05-02隆阳MS5.22023-02-08-2023-04-25108趋势下降超出阈值低值-持续低值波动-突升恢复
2023-12-02芒市MS5.02023-06-13-2023-06-18279突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复
弥渡2019-07-21永胜MS4.82019-04-29-2019-07-2394突升超出阈值高值-持续高值波动-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值
2019-11-25洱源MS4.72019-08-29-2019-11-2499突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值持续波动
2021-05-21漾濞MS6.42021-03-03-2021-03-3168突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复
2022-01-02宁蒗MS5.5无异常273无异常
2023-12-02芒市MS5.0无异常265无异常
保山2019-11-25洱源MS4.72019-11-09-2019-11-27106突降超出最低阈值-突升恢复-突降超出最低阈值-突升恢复
2021-05-13漾濞MS4.62020-11-20-2021-05-0978突降超出最低阈值-突升恢复、震前数天又多次突升超出阈值高值波动上升下降
2021-05-21漾濞MS6.491
2022-01-02宁蒗MS5.52021-08-14-2021-12-23300多次突升超出阈值高值-震前数天突升超出阈值-突降恢复
2022-09-23龙陵MS4.72022-07-14-2022-07-1990突降超出最低阈值-突升恢复
2023-05-02隆阳MS5.2无异常30无异常
2023-12-02芒市MS5.02023-09-24-2023-10-12147突降超出最低阈值-突升超出阈值高值-突降超出最低阈值
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滇西北断裂带痕量氢异常变化及地震对应情况

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观测点研究地震异常持续时间震中距/km异常特征
汝南2019-02-02宁蒗MS4.52019-01-05-2019-02-0985突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值-波动上升下降
2019-07-21永胜MS4.82019-06-24-2019-07-2082突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值
2019-11-25洱源MS4.72019-10-11-2019-10-26102突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复
2021-05-21漾濞MS6.4无异常115无异常
2022-01-02宁蒗MS5.5无异常135无异常
2023-05-02隆阳MS5.2无异常168无异常
2023-12-02芒市MS5.02023-08-04-2023-10-20300突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复、波动幅度大
洱源2021-05-21漾濞MS6.42021-02-21-2021-05-0851突降超出阈值低值-持续低值波动-突升恢复-突降超出阈值低值
2022-01-02宁蒗MS5.52021-10-18-2022-02-10198突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值-在高值波动上升下降
2023-05-02隆阳MS5.22023-02-08-2023-04-25108趋势下降超出阈值低值-持续低值波动-突升恢复
2023-12-02芒市MS5.02023-06-13-2023-06-18279突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复
弥渡2019-07-21永胜MS4.82019-04-29-2019-07-2394突升超出阈值高值-持续高值波动-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值
2019-11-25洱源MS4.72019-08-29-2019-11-2499突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值持续波动
2021-05-21漾濞MS6.42021-03-03-2021-03-3168突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复-突升超出阈值高值-突降恢复
2022-01-02宁蒗MS5.5无异常273无异常
2023-12-02芒市MS5.0无异常265无异常
保山2019-11-25洱源MS4.72019-11-09-2019-11-27106突降超出最低阈值-突升恢复-突降超出最低阈值-突升恢复
2021-05-13漾濞MS4.62020-11-20-2021-05-0978突降超出最低阈值-突升恢复、震前数天又多次突升超出阈值高值波动上升下降
2021-05-21漾濞MS6.491
2022-01-02宁蒗MS5.52021-08-14-2021-12-23300多次突升超出阈值高值-震前数天突升超出阈值-突降恢复
2022-09-23龙陵MS4.72022-07-14-2022-07-1990突降超出最低阈值-突升恢复
2023-05-02隆阳MS5.2无异常30无异常
2023-12-02芒市MS5.02023-09-24-2023-10-12147突降超出最低阈值-突升超出阈值高值-突降超出最低阈值
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滇西北断裂带痕量氢地震异常特征分析及预报效能评价
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黑贺堂 1, 2 , 张源 1 , 李庆 1 , 高琼 1 , 匡泳庄 3 , 李梅芳 4 , 邓嘉美 1
大地测量与地球动力学 | 地球动力学 2026,46(1): 106-114
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大地测量与地球动力学 |地球动力学 2026 , 46 (1) : 106 -114
滇西北断裂带痕量氢地震异常特征分析及预报效能评价
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黑贺堂1, 2 , 张源1, 李庆1, 高琼1, 匡泳庄3, 李梅芳4, 邓嘉美1
作者信息
  • 1 中国地震科学实验场大理中心, 大理, 671000
  • 2 云南大理滇西北地壳构造活动野外科学观测研究站, 大理, 671000
  • 3 云南省地震局, 昆明, 650224
  • 4 玉龙县地震局, 丽江, 674100
作者简介:

黑贺堂, 工程师, 主要从事地震监测预报与地震地质研究, E-mail:

Seismic Anomaly Characteristics and Prediction Efficiency Evaluation of Trace Hydrogen in the Fault Zone of Northwestern Yunnan
Hetang HEI1, 2 , Yuan ZHANG1, Qing LI1, Qiong GAO1, Yongzhuang KUANG3, Meifang LI4, Jiamei DENG1
Affiliations
  • 1 Dali Center of China Earthquake Science Experimental Field, Dali 671000, China
  • 2 Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Crustal Tectonic Activities in Northwestern Yunnan, Dali 671000, China
  • 3 Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China
  • 4 Yulong Earthquake Agency, Lijiang 674100, China
出版时间: 2026-01-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.603
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在滇西北地区4个断裂带痕量氢观测点近5 a全时段高精度连续观测数据统计分析、相关性拟合及预处理的基础上,对观测数据开展地震预报效能评价,并结合效能评价结果与前人研究结果分析痕量氢浓度地震异常特征及原因。结果表明:1)滇西北地区温泉逸出氢气浓度变化与气温、气压具有一定的相关性,呈现出明显的年变特征,而土壤逸出氢气则与气象要素基本不相关;对比前人研究表明,断裂带痕量氢浓度规律具有显著的空间异质性,其受控因素并非单一模式。2)滇西北地区4个痕量氢观测点均为具有统计检验意义的有效地震预测指标,其中土壤逸出氢气短期预测效果更好,可信度却较低;温泉逸出氢气的预测效能则以中长期为主,可信度较高。3)滇西北地区断裂带氢气异常与地震活动密切相关,地震前兆异常通常表现为突然增高或锯齿状起伏;由于氢气来源、逸出过程和不同地区地储温度等存在差异,温泉逸出氢气与土壤逸出氢气的地球化学背景值同样具有显著的空间异质性。

断裂带  /  痕量氢  /  效能评价  /  异常特征

Based on the statistical analysis, correlation fitting and preprocessing of high-precision continuous observation data of four trace hydrogen observation points in fault zones of northwestern Yunnan over the past five years, we evaluate the seismic prediction efficiency of observational data, and analyze the characteristics and causes of trace hydrogen concentration anomalies related to earthquakes combining with previous studies. The results show that: 1) The concentration variations of hydrogen escaping from hot springs in northwestern Yunnan are correlated with temperature and air pressure, showing distinct annual variation features. In contrast, hydrogen escaping from soil is essentially uncorrelated with meteorological elements. Comparison with previous studies, there is a significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of trace hydrogen concentration in fault zones, which is not controlled by a single factor. 2) All of four trace hydrogen observation points in northwestern Yunnan are effective seismic prediction indicators with statistical significance. The short-term prediction effect of hydrogen escaping from soil is better but with relatively lower credibility. The prediction efficiency of hydrogen escaping from hot springs is mainly in medium to long term, with relatively higher credibility. 3) There is a close correlation between hydrogen anomalies in fault zones and seismic activities in northwestern Yunnan. Seismic precursory anomalies typically manifest as sudden increases or sawtooth fluctuations. Due to differences in hydrogen sources, escaping processes, and geothermal storage temperatures in different regions, the geochemical background values of hydrogen escaping from hot springs and soil also exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity.

fault zone  /  trace hydrogen  /  efficiency evaluation  /  abnormal characteristics
黑贺堂, 张源, 李庆, 高琼, 匡泳庄, 李梅芳, 邓嘉美. 滇西北断裂带痕量氢地震异常特征分析及预报效能评价. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2026 , 46 (1) : 106 -114 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.603
Hetang HEI, Yuan ZHANG, Qing LI, Qiong GAO, Yongzhuang KUANG, Meifang LI, Jiamei DENG. Seismic Anomaly Characteristics and Prediction Efficiency Evaluation of Trace Hydrogen in the Fault Zone of Northwestern Yunnan[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2026 , 46 (1) : 106 -114 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.603
岩石圈应力发生改变时,深部地下流体会在压力驱动下沿着断裂迁移,形成流体地球化学异常[1]。活动断层在垂直方向的渗透率较高,是地表与地下深部的联系通道,沿活动断层逸出到地表的气体往往能作为较好的构造指示剂[2]。其中,氢气质量轻、穿透能力强、扩散活跃,同时还具有较强的还原性,往往携带有来自上地幔的最重要信息[3-4]。
Wakita等[5]在1980年发现氢气与断层活动的相关性之后,氢气开始被较多地应用于地震观测研究;Sugisaki等[6]通过对日本中央构造线附近泉水逸出气观测结果进行分析,证明泉水中逸出氢气是由与地震有关的水岩反应所产生;Dogan等[7]对日本7条活动断层进行土壤氢气的连续测量,结果表明,氢气的高浓度异常与大震时间较为一致,而且震中区附近的余震区仍能观测到较高浓度的氢异常。我国从20世纪末开始对断层带井(泉)水中的氢气进行取样观测,并且在部分地震前观测到氢气异常。上官志冠[8]对出露在大断裂交会带附近观测点的气体组分及成因进行分析研究,结果表明,断层带氢气的释放与深大断裂活动以及地震活动具有一定的成因关系。近年来,随着断裂带氢气观测技术与气体逸出理论的不断发展,利用断层带附近吸附于土壤中的氢气及温泉井逸出氢气浓度变化开展区域地震预报已成为国内外研究的热点[4, 9-10]。断裂带地壳逸出氢气浓度往往在地震前几个月或几天内异常升高,与地震具有良好的对应关系,是重要的地震短临预报指标,具有短临阶段的映震能力[3, 9-11]。氢异常通常呈现出“突升-转折下降-地震-恢复背景值”的特征,且异常对应地震的重现性较好[12]。从上述研究可以看出,利用断层带氢气来指示地震活动具有重要意义。
滇西北地区位于腾冲-保山地块、印支地块、扬子地块和松潘-甘孜地块的交会处,第四纪构造运动剧烈[13]。该区地震频发,强度大,2020年以来发生5级以上地震40余次,一直是众多学者进行地震危险性研究的重点区域。滇西北地区从2019年起由北向南共布设4个断层氢气连续观测点(图 1),但针对这些观测资料的研究仍停留在简单的震后分析层面,缺少有关滇西北地区氢气浓度动态特征及其地震预报效能的深入分析与研究。鉴于此,本研究基于4个测点近5 a全时段高精度连续观测数据,结合观测时段内滇西北地区典型地震事件,对滇西北地区断层氢气开展地震预报效能评价,对其可能的前兆机理进行探讨,明确断层氢气异常预报意义,以期为今后滇西北地区痕量氢气地震前兆识别及区域地震趋势研判提供参考依据。
滇西北地区地处青藏高原东南缘,是滇西地槽褶皱带与扬子准地台的交会区[14]。该区属青藏滇川“歹”字型构造体系,主体为一系列反S型褶皱带与经向构造彼此交织复合、相互交接、穿插、干扰,被认为是青藏高原物质向东南挤出的通道[15],呈现出错综复杂的构造特征。研究区内发育有澜沧江断裂带、怒江断裂带、程海-宾川断裂带、丽江-小金河断裂带、龙蟠-乔后断裂带、红河断裂带、兰坪-永平断裂带等较大断裂(图 1)。
本研究的4个痕量氢观测点均位于研究区断裂带交会处或断裂带附近(图 1)。汝南测点(26.69°N, 100.06°E)位于丽江-小金河断裂带南西段,洱源测点(26.11°N, 99.95°E)位于红河断裂带与丽江-小金河断裂带、龙蟠-乔后断裂带交会处附近,弥渡测点(25.33°N, 100.44°E)位于红河断裂带南东段,保山测点(25.14°N, 99.16°E)位于澜沧江断裂带与怒江断裂带之间。汝南、弥渡2处为断层带土壤逸出氢气观测点,2处观测点集气装置基本一致,观测点由人工开挖,直径1.5 m,深度3 m,底层铺设鹅卵石透气层50 cm,鹅卵石上方为高度40 cm、边长80 cm的不锈钢材质集气罩,集气罩上方通过法兰连接直径110 mm的PVC引气管,引气管内不同位置固定2个四氟采气花管,引气管顶端密封,密封盖上有2个导气管口,导气管口两端通过四氟管连接采气花管与测量仪器,如图 2(a)所示。洱源、保山2处为断裂带温泉逸出氢气观测点, 其中洱源测点依托滇20井,井深266.56 m,出水口水温20.0±3 ℃;保山测点依托滇14井,井深708.10 m,出水口水温46.0±2 ℃, 2口井均有大量气体逸出。2个测点集气装置基本一致,通过四氟导气管连接密封井口前预留的导气管口与测量仪器,如图 2(b)所示。4个观测点均采用杭州超矩公司研发的ATG-6118H型痕量氢自动分析仪,该仪器灵敏度高,检出限低至0.05×10-6,且在产出一个氢气浓度数据的同时产出气压与温度的辅助观测数据。
本文采用数理统计方法对4个测点全时段观测数据进行统计,其中汝南、弥渡、保山测点观测时段均为2019-01-2023-12,洱源测点观测时段为2021-02-2023-12。汝南测点数据完整率为91.0%,观测平均值为0.221×10-6;洱源测点数据完整率为99.7%,观测平均值为0.895×10-6;弥渡测点数据完整率为99.7%,观测平均值为0.351×10-6;保山测点数据完整率为98.5%,观测平均值为13.245×10-6。4个观测点测值大小分布如图 3所示,基本符合正态分布。总体来说,4个观测点连续观测氢气浓度的有效观测数据完整率均较高、连续性较好,结合4个测点的定期标校记录来看,ATG-6118H型痕量氢自动分析仪观测过程稳定,观测数据资料可靠。
本研究所选的4个观测点均为固定点位连续观测,观测点周边地质因素基本不变,除断电及仪器调试检修外,基本不存在人为干扰。图 4为4个观测点去除断电以及仪器调试检修等造成的错误数据后的原始浓度变化曲线,可以看出,土壤逸出氢气与温泉井逸出氢气存在明显差异,其中洱源和保山2处温泉气浓度曲线呈倒V型,而汝南、弥渡2处土壤气呈现出数据突升毛刺状的特征。从总体变化趋势来看,2个温泉逸出氢气测点浓度变化存在一定程度由季节性气温、气压变化引起的周期变化特征,而2个土壤气则未呈现明显类似特征。
鉴于4个观测点原始数据总体变化趋势,选用拉普拉斯变换对4个观测点2021-2023年的日观测数据进行周期成分分析,结果如图 5所示。可以看出,洱源与保山测点温泉井逸出氢气的日观测数据均在360 d左右存在较强的小波功率谱能量,表明其具有显著的年周期成分;而汝南与弥渡测点土壤逸出氢气在此频段上未显示出周期成分。对各观测点进行氢气浓度与气温、气压的相关性拟合分析,结果也显示, 汝南、弥渡测点断层土壤逸出氢气浓度与气温、气压基本不具有相关性;洱源测点氢气浓度与气压的相关系数为-0.23,表现出较弱的负相关性,而与气温的相关系数为0.48,表现出较弱的正相关性;保山测点氢气浓度与气压的相关系数为0.12,表现出较弱的正相关性,与气温的相关系数为-0.32,表现出较弱的负相关性。
为研究滇西北地区氢气浓度与周边地震之间的关系,本文选取滇西北地区(24.0°~28.0°N, 98.0°~101.0°E)2019-01-2024-01发生的9次MS≥4.5地震,其中MS4.5 ~5.0地震5次,MS5.0~6.0地震3次,MS>6.0地震1次(同一地震序列仅选用主震),地震参数详见表 1。
地震发生伴随着地壳应力变化,会使地壳岩石圈构造、矿物性质发生改变,从而影响地壳乃至更深处的氢气运移能力。这些改变有部分会隐藏于正常的动态之中而不太显著,为便于后期异常指标的提取,需对原始观测数据进行预处理: 首先采用多元线性回归方法消除气温、气压对洱源、保山测点温泉井逸出氢气浓度的影响;然后采用静态距平去除洱源与保山测点温泉井逸出氢气的年变。图 4中红色曲线为洱源、保山测点消除气象要素影响及去除周期变化之后的温泉逸出氢气浓度变化曲线。根据监测预报评估标准[16],本次研究分别选取各测点周边150 km范围内MS4.5~5.0、300 km范围内MS5.0~6.0和350 km范围内大于MS6.0地震作为预报效能评价的备选震例,图 4中深蓝色虚线标示了各测点周边地震发生的时间。
根据前文氢浓度变化特征及影响因素分析结果,使用土壤逸出氢气的原始数据及温泉逸出氢气的预处理数据,结合各测点周边的地震事件,使用R值评分法对4个观测点进行预报效能评价。R值评分法主要依据预测指标实际预测地震的有震报准率和预测占时率,可反映异常指标与地震之间的相关程度。R值计算公式为:R=(报对地震次数/应预报地震总次数)-(预报占用的时间/预报研究的总时间)[17]。根据R值评分规则,在97.5%置信度下,当R>R0(R0表示随机预测情况下的期望R值, 即无预测能力时的理论基准)时,预测效能检验通过,表明指标有效。
通过智能选取最优阈值倍率对4个观测点氢气浓度的不同预测窗长进行R值检验,表 2为4个观测点的预报效能评价R值检验结果。其中汝南测点在预测窗长为80 d、阈值倍率为1.2时求得最优R值为0.461 3;洱源测点在预测窗长为170 d、阈值倍率为1.5时求得最优R值为0.665 3;弥渡测点仅在预测窗长为50 d时通过效能检验,阈值倍率为1.0,求得R值为0.453 7;保山测点在预测窗长为180 d、阈值倍率为1.5时求得最优R值为0.533 1。
采用Molchan图表法对4个观测点在不同预测窗长下的最优阈值倍率进行统计检验。Molchan图表法使用预测时间占有率和漏报率进行统计评分,采用概率增益Gain(Gain=报准率/时间占有率)表示预报效果相对随机分布的优势。该方法对地震预报效能的评价一方面由漏报率与时间占有率向左所围空的面积来比较,围空面积越小,预报效能越好;另一方面还需要考察准确预报次数占总地震次数比例的显著性水平,显著性水平α值越低,表明置信水平越高。显著性水平α值计算公式为:
式中,Z为应预报的地震总次数;x为报对地震次数;τ为预报时间占有率[18-19]。
从图 6可以看出,所有检验结果的概率增益均大于1,表明均具有一定的统计和检验意义。结合围空面积与显著性水平可知,汝南与弥渡测点在最优概率增益时左侧所围空的面积最小,显著性水平α值略小于5%,均为2个测点所有预测窗长的最小值。洱源测点虽然在90 d和120 d时概率增益最大,但预测窗长为170 d时的概率增益略小于90 d和120 d时,且其左侧所围空的面积与显著性水平α值却均远小于90 d和120 d时。保山测点则在具有最优概率增益的60 d预测窗长时其左侧所围空的面积最小,但其显著性水平却又大于预测窗长为180 d时的显著性水平。
结合R值评分法与Molchan图表法检验结果可知,汝南、弥渡与洱源测点均在R值最高时其Molchan图表检验的概率增益与预报效能最佳,3个测点最佳预测窗长与最优阈值倍率分别为:汝南测点为80 d与1.2倍,此时漏报率为42.9%;弥渡测点为50 d与1.2倍,此时漏报率为40%;洱源测点为170 d与1.5倍,此时漏报率为0%。而保山测点虽然在Molchan图表检验中预测窗长为60 d时预报效能略好,但置信水平远低于180 d时,且60 d时效能检验未通过,而180 d时R评分最高,故综合判定保山测点最佳预测窗长与最优阈值倍率为180 d与1.5倍,此时漏报率为14.2%。
结合预报效能评价结果,对4个观测点在最佳预测窗长与最优阈值倍率条件下的地震前兆异常特征及变化进行分析。由图 4可知,4个观测点氢气浓度的高值通常以突跳的形式出现,整体呈现出锯齿状波动变化特征,且高值异常的幅度往往显著高于正常背景值。进一步结合4个测点周边地震活动情况发现,2个土壤逸出氢气观测点在震前氢气浓度变化总体呈现出先突升至高值,随后又急剧下降并恢复的特征;而2个温泉逸出氢气观测点除具有与土壤逸出氢气相似的特征外,在部分地震前还呈现浓度趋势突跳下降出现低值,随后又上升恢复出现高值异常的复杂变化特征。各测点的异常特征表现及异常持续时间详见表 3。
从滇西北地区4个观测点的原始观测数据来看,2个温泉逸出氢气观测点的浓度平均值相较于2个土壤逸出氢气观测点要高很多。从观测数据相关性拟合分析结果来看,滇西北地区土壤逸出氢气的浓度变化与气温和气压基本无关;2个温泉井逸出氢气中洱源测点氢气浓度与气压呈负相关,与气温呈正相关,保山测点氢气浓度与气压呈较弱的正相关,与气温则呈负相关。观测数据的周期成分分析结果表明,2个温泉氢气测点的氢气浓度变化不同程度地受到气象要素的影响,具有显著的年周期变化成分,而2个土壤氢气测点则未呈现类似的周期变化特征。这与方震等[20]在郯庐断裂带的研究结果(土壤逸出氢气浓度与气温呈正相关,而与气压呈负相关,温泉井逸出氢气则与气温和气压无相关性)以及钟骏等[21]对阿克苏断裂带逸出氢气的分析结果(氢气浓度与气压呈负相关,与气温呈显著正相关)存在显著差异。这可能是因为不同的地质条件、断层开合情况、采样深度、采样孔周围的地温变化以及气象要素等虽然会对断裂带氢气浓度造成影响,但对于不同地区、不同测点,各影响因素所起作用的大小不尽相同[9-10]。因此本文认为,不同地点、不同观测类型断裂带氢气浓度的变化规律具有显著的空间异质性,其受控因素并非单一模式,无法单纯以地区或观测类型来对各因素对氢气浓度的影响进行简单归类。
结合R值预报效能评价与Molchan图表法统计检验结果来看,4个观测点均为具有显著统计和检验意义的有效指标。通过对比可以看出,土壤逸出氢气的最优预测窗长均小于3个月,而温泉逸出氢气则接近6个月;汝南、弥渡2个土壤逸出氢气的漏报率均大于30%,而洱源、保山2个温泉井逸出氢气的漏报率则均小于15%。表明滇西北地区土壤逸出氢气短期预测效果更好,可信度却相对较低;而温泉逸出氢气相较而言中长期预测效果更好,可信度相对较高。
从地震前兆异常特征及变化结果来看,4个观测点的地震前兆异常均呈现出高值突跳的特征。这可能与4个观测点均处于断裂带附近密切相关,结合前人对滇西北地区温泉水样氢氧同位素示踪分析结果可知,滇西北地区断裂带温泉补给源为大气降水,断裂带温泉的水岩反应仍在进行中,温泉热源主要为相对较浅地壳热流,断裂带温泉水的热循环与水岩反应深度主要限制于10 km左右的上地壳[22-24]。对比表 1可知,10 km左右的深度与区域内典型震例的震源深度基本一致,表明滇西北地区断裂带氢气的释放与地震过程中的应力变化、断裂带活动之间存在一定关系[25]。主要表现为在地震孕育过程中,断裂带内岩石受到应力作用而发生变形和破裂,这首先会使岩石中氢气得以逸出;其次岩石在高压、超高压受力情况下,一方面矿物晶格结构被破坏会释放出氢气,另一方面新鲜岩石面与水反应也会生成氢气,从而出现断裂带氢气的高值异常现象[4, 9, 26]。而该过程中, 温泉逸出氢气在应力作用下相较土壤逸出氢气会有更加充足的水分参与水岩反应生成氢气,且土壤逸出氢气的运移条件相比温泉逸出氢气要差,从而造成滇西北地区温泉井逸出氢气的背景值要高于土壤逸出氢气的背景值。
对比发现, 温泉逸出氢气观测点震前会存在低值异常的现象。这是因为,断层面积、位错大小、有效应力等是影响氢气释放的重要因素,而温泉气对断层裂隙通道的变化比土壤气更加敏感,在应力释放的前期有时会使深部原有的裂隙通道变窄或部分闭锁,之后随着应力的进一步释放又出现新的裂隙通道[26-27],使得温泉逸出氢气呈现先低值异常后高值异常的特征。进一步对比发现,保山温泉气与弥渡土壤气测点的地球化学背景值分别大于洱源温泉气和汝南土壤气测点,由滇西北地区地温场研究成果[22]可知,保山和弥渡测点位于地热场分布不均匀且地储温度较低的区域,区域内水对断裂的弱化程度较低,使得断层积累相对较大的应力,水岩反应生成氢气的过程更为剧烈;而洱源与汝南测点则位于地储温度高值区,高值区热水的循环作用往往会降低断层面的有效正应力[24],使得水岩反应生成氢气的过程较为平缓,相应的氢气地球化学背景值也较低。
滇西北地区温泉逸出氢气浓度变化与气温、气压具有不同程度的相关性,呈现出明显的年变特征;而土壤逸出氢气则与气温、气压基本不相关。通过对比前人研究成果可知,不同观测地点、不同观测类型断裂带痕量氢浓度的变化规律及受到气象要素等的影响各不相同,其变化特征并不唯一。
从R值评分法与Molchan图表法的预报效能评价结果来看,滇西北地区4个痕量氢观测点的结果均为具有显著统计检验意义的有效地震预测指标, 其中土壤逸出氢气短期预测效果更好,漏报率却较高;温泉逸出氢气的预测效能则以中长期为主,漏报率较低。
滇西北地区温泉水热循环深度与区域内多数地震的震源深度基本一致,断裂带氢气异常与地震之间存在一定关系;地震前兆异常总体表现为突然增高或锯齿状起伏的特征。由于氢气来源、逸出过程和不同地区地储温度等的差异,温泉逸出氢气与土壤逸出氢气的地球化学背景值具有显著的空间异质性。
滇西北地区土壤逸出气与温泉逸出气虽在变化特征上存在差异,但二者的异常特征对地震活动均具有指示意义。氢气异常变化与地震事件未完全对应,其浓度波动与地震震级也无显著关联,这一方面表明氢气异常可能真实反映断层活动及区域应力变化状态,另一方面也揭示了断层构造对氢气迁移释放影响的复杂机理。当前研究受限于观测站点少、监测周期短、震例不足,断裂带痕量氢运移规律仍待深入研究。随着中国地震科学实验场项目的推进,滇西北及云南将建成高密度痕量氢连续观测网,可为后续研究提供更加充足的数据支撑。
  • 中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2024010312)
  • 中国地震局“三结合”课题(3JH-202401094)
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2025.01.603
  • 接收时间:2025-01-09
  • 首发时间:2026-10-29
  • 出版时间:2026-01-15
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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-09
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中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2024010312)
中国地震局“三结合”课题(3JH-202401094)
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    1 中国地震科学实验场大理中心, 大理, 671000
    2 云南大理滇西北地壳构造活动野外科学观测研究站, 大理, 671000
    3 云南省地震局, 昆明, 650224
    4 玉龙县地震局, 丽江, 674100
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