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Article(id=1322506760229863857, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, issueId=1322506567065383670, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1720713600000, receivedDateStr=2024-07-12, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793239782626, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1752508800000, pubDateStr=2025-07-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793239782626, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793239782626, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793239782626, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322506567065383670, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, year='2025', volume='45', issue='7', pageStart='661', pageEnd='770', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1752508800000', pubDateStr='2025-07-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793239736572, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793239736572, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=681, endPage=687, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322506760414413234, articleId=1322506760229863857, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, language=EN, title=Estimation Method of Seismic Tsunami Hazard Based on the Generalized Extreme Value Theory: A Case Study of Southeast Coast of China, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

We explore estimation methods of seismic tsunami hazard based on the generalized extreme value theory, provide two case studies for constructing seismic activity models: one based on the generalized extreme value distribution to build a seismic activity model for Ryukyu trench subduction zone, and the other based on the generalized Pareto distribution to build a seismic activity model for Manila trench subduction zone. Six specific sites along the southeast coast of China are selected, and strong seismic activity models are constructed using generalized extreme value theory, considering the Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones as potential source areas. Through numerical simulation of seismic tsunamis, the estimation result of seismic tsunami hazard for these specific sites of Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones in a future time period is obtained. These results are then compared with estimation results that consider the uncertainty effects. The findings indicate that the ranking of deterministic estimation results is consistent with that of coupled uncertainty effects, with the former having higher values than the latter, but still having reference value.

, authors=Zhe LIU1, 2, Luchuan REN3, *, authorsList=Zhe LIU, Luchuan REN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Luchuan REN, authorNote=

LIU Zhe, engineer, majors in earthquake disaster prediction and disaster risk analysis, E-mail:

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探讨基于广义极值理论的地震海啸危险性估计方法，给出构建地震活动性模型的两个案例：基于广义极值分布构建琉球海沟俯冲带地震活动性模型和基于广义帕累托分布构建马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震活动性模型。选取中国东南沿海地区6个近岸特定场点，采用广义极值理论构建以马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带作为潜源区的强震活动性模型，通过地震海啸数值模拟，得到马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带对特定场点未来时间段的地震海啸危险性估计结果，并将其与耦合不确定性效应的地震海啸危险性估计结果进行对比。结果表明，确定性估计结果与耦合不确定性效应的结果排序一致，前者数值高于后者，但仍具有参考价值。

, authors=刘哲1, 2, 任鲁川3, *, authorsList=刘哲, 任鲁川, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=任鲁川, authorNote=

刘哲，工程师，主要从事地震灾害预测和灾害风险分析研究，E-mail：

, correspAuthorsNote=

任鲁川，教授，主要从事地震灾害预测、海洋灾害预测和灾害风险分析研究，E-mail：

REN Luchuan, professor, majors in earthquake disaster prediction, marine disaster prediction, and disaster risk analysis, E-mail:

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LIU Zhe, engineer, majors in earthquake disaster prediction and disaster risk analysis, E-mail:

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刘哲，工程师，主要从事地震灾害预测和灾害风险分析研究，E-mail：

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刘哲，工程师，主要从事地震灾害预测和灾害风险分析研究，E-mail：

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articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, orderNo=2, keyword=广义极值理论), Keyword(id=1322506767154659807, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, orderNo=3, keyword=中国东南沿海), Keyword(id=1322506767246934496, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, orderNo=4, keyword=地震活动性模型)], refs=[Reference(id=1322506772934410765, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, doi=10.1016/j.pepi.2007.02.012, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2007, volume=163, issue=1-4, pageStart=233, pageEnd=244, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=1, rfOrder=0, authorNames=Liu Y C, Santos A, Wang S M, journalName=Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Liu Y C,Santos A,Wang S M,et al.Tsunami Hazards along Chinese Coast from Potential Earthquakes in South China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary 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journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=图8, caption=海啸数值模拟区域和网格划分示意图

图中大矩形表示第1层网格, 小矩形表示第2层网格

, figureFileSmall=NEwqzNgXF+T9HLG2ka1vpg==, figureFileBig=ioS8eYbeV2k1czOAJl8A4Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322506768840770033, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 1, caption=

The geographical location and water depth of specific sites

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
位置信息编号
123456
纬度/(°)30.026.624.322.120.122.6
经度/(°)122.7120.3118.4114.4110.9120.2
水深/m202020202033
地理位置舟山近海宁德近海厦门近海香港近海海口近海高雄近海
), ArticleFig(id=1322506768933044722, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

特定场点地理位置及水深

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
位置信息编号
123456
纬度/(°)30.026.624.322.120.122.6
经度/(°)122.7120.3118.4114.4110.9120.2
水深/m202020202033
地理位置舟山近海宁德近海厦门近海香港近海海口近海高雄近海
), ArticleFig(id=1322506769067262451, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 2, caption=

Maximum magnitude in Ryukyu trench subduction zone

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
最大震级(起始年)编号
1234567891011
Mmax(1908)8.18.27.57.97.87.57.57.47.17.77.0
Mmax(1910)8.18.27.77.97.87.57.47.47.77.17.0
Mmax(1911)8.27.17.97.87.57.57.47.47.77.17.0
), ArticleFig(id=1322506769184702964, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

琉球海沟俯冲带最大震级数据

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
最大震级(起始年)编号
1234567891011
Mmax(1908)8.18.27.57.97.87.57.57.47.17.77.0
Mmax(1910)8.18.27.77.97.87.57.47.47.77.17.0
Mmax(1911)8.27.17.97.87.57.57.47.47.77.17.0
), ArticleFig(id=1322506769285366261, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 3, caption=

Parameters estimation of the generalized extreme value model

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
最大震级(起始年)形状参数(ξ)位置参数(μ)尺度参数(σ)
Mmax(1908)-0.399 352 47.502 636 50.373 900 1
Mmax(1910)-0.458 091 97.521 439 30.387 605 1
Mmax(1911)-0.168 634 57.366 609 60.321 428 6
), ArticleFig(id=1322506769377640950, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

广义极值模型参数估计值

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
最大震级(起始年)形状参数(ξ)位置参数(μ)尺度参数(σ)
Mmax(1908)-0.399 352 47.502 636 50.373 900 1
Mmax(1910)-0.458 091 97.521 439 30.387 605 1
Mmax(1911)-0.168 634 57.366 609 60.321 428 6
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771030196727, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 4, caption=

Potential seismic tsunami source parameters

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
俯冲带经度/(°)纬度/(°)长度/km宽度/km走向/(°)倾角/(°)滑动角/(°)震源深度/km
马尼拉119.818.72002034209015
琉球124.123.415020247169025
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771130860024, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

潜在地震海啸源参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
俯冲带经度/(°)纬度/(°)长度/km宽度/km走向/(°)倾角/(°)滑动角/(°)震源深度/km
马尼拉119.818.72002034209015
琉球124.123.415020247169025
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771256689145, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 5, caption=

The range of second layer grid area in tsunami numerical simulation

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
网格编号123456
纬度范围/(°)29~3125~2823~2621~2317~2121~26
经度范围/(°)122~124119~122117~119113~115109~112119~123
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771336380922, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

海啸数值模拟第2层网格区域范围

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
网格编号123456
纬度范围/(°)29~3125~2823~2621~2317~2121~26
经度范围/(°)122~124119~122117~119113~115109~112119~123
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771420267003, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 6, caption=

Maximum wave height at specific sites (Manila trench subduction zone)

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震级MW场点1场点2场点3场点4场点5场点6
6.400.000 20.002 90.011 90.012 60.399 6
6.500.000 30.009 90.031 30.057 80.425 9
7.400.003 40.087 90.322 80.309 60.535 6
7.500.004 80.136 80.391 30.409 00.599 4
7.600.006 70.155 90.407 10.429 10.612 1
8.100.029 10.306 30.591 10.425 10.967 6
8.200.043 00.404 50.805 50.506 51.270 2
8.500.127 50.804 32.038 70.683 82.810 9
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771508347388, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表6, caption=

特定场点的最大海啸波高数据(马尼拉海沟俯冲带)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
震级MW场点1场点2场点3场点4场点5场点6
6.400.000 20.002 90.011 90.012 60.399 6
6.500.000 30.009 90.031 30.057 80.425 9
7.400.003 40.087 90.322 80.309 60.535 6
7.500.004 80.136 80.391 30.409 00.599 4
7.600.006 70.155 90.407 10.429 10.612 1
8.100.029 10.306 30.591 10.425 10.967 6
8.200.043 00.404 50.805 50.506 51.270 2
8.500.127 50.804 32.038 70.683 82.810 9
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771604816381, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 7, caption=

Maximum wave height at specific sites (Ryukyu trench subduction zone)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
震级MW场点1场点2场点3场点4场点5场点6
7.00.005 20.006 60.005 50.001 80.000 30.236 2
7.10.007 40.009 40.008 30.002 50.000 40.408 3
8.10.217 60.220 00.182 90.312 90.333 30.456 9
8.20.324 30.300 50.294 00.438 70.423 10.495 1
8.30.491 60.414 30.406 40.493 20.427 50.566 3
8.40.729 20.533 00.512 60.549 90.439 50.604 7
8.51.021 20.682 70.672 30.582 20.448 10.775 5
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特定场点的最大海啸波高数据(琉球海沟俯冲带)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
震级MW场点1场点2场点3场点4场点5场点6
7.00.005 20.006 60.005 50.001 80.000 30.236 2
7.10.007 40.009 40.008 30.002 50.000 40.408 3
8.10.217 60.220 00.182 90.312 90.333 30.456 9
8.20.324 30.300 50.294 00.438 70.423 10.495 1
8.30.491 60.414 30.406 40.493 20.427 50.566 3
8.40.729 20.533 00.512 60.549 90.439 50.604 7
8.51.021 20.682 70.672 30.582 20.448 10.775 5
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771764199935, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 8, caption=

Tsunami grade

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
等级海啸波高/m海啸能量/1010 J损失程度
-1< 0.50.06微量损失
010.25轻微损失
121损失房屋船只
24~64人员死亡、房屋倒塌
31016≤400 km岸段严重受损
4>3064≥500 km岸段严重受损
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771839697408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表8, caption=

海啸等级

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
等级海啸波高/m海啸能量/1010 J损失程度
-1< 0.50.06微量损失
010.25轻微损失
121损失房屋船只
24~64人员死亡、房屋倒塌
31016≤400 km岸段严重受损
4>3064≥500 km岸段严重受损
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771911000577, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 9, caption=

Annual mean rate of seismic tsunami recurrence and critical magnitude (Manila trench subduction zone)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场点1场点2场点3场点4场点5场点6
临界震级MWaa8.27.67.56.5
年均发生率aa5.35×10-60.001 20.002 10.068
), ArticleFig(id=1322506771973915138, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表9, caption=

临界震级和地震海啸年均发生率(马尼拉海沟俯冲带)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场点1场点2场点3场点4场点5场点6
临界震级MWaa8.27.67.56.5
年均发生率aa5.35×10-60.001 20.002 10.068
), ArticleFig(id=1322506772049412611, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 10, caption=

Annual mean rate of seismic tsunami recurrence and critical magnitude (Ryukyu trench subduction zone)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场点1场点2场点3场点4场点5场点6
临界震级MW8.38.38.38.28.27.1
年均发生率0.0040.0040.0040.0290.0290.911
), ArticleFig(id=1322506772129104388, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表10, caption=

临界震级和地震海啸年均发生率(琉球海沟俯冲带)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
场点1场点2场点3场点4场点5场点6
临界震级MW8.38.38.38.28.27.1
年均发生率0.0040.0040.0040.0290.0290.911
), ArticleFig(id=1322506772183630341, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=EN, label=Tab. 11, caption=

Seismic tsunami hazard of special sites

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年数30 a50 a100 a
场点10.113 10.181 30.329 7
场点20.113 10.181 30.329 7
场点30.113 20.181 50.330 0
场点40.595 90.779 10.951 2
场点50.606 60.788 80.955 4
场点6111
), ArticleFig(id=1322506772254933510, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1281212831689347082, articleId=1322506760229863857, language=CN, label=表11, caption=

特定场点的地震海啸危险性

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年数30 a50 a100 a
场点10.113 10.181 30.329 7
场点20.113 10.181 30.329 7
场点30.113 20.181 50.330 0
场点40.595 90.779 10.951 2
场点50.606 60.788 80.955 4
场点6111
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基于广义极值理论的地震海啸危险性估计方法——以中国东南沿海为例
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刘哲 1, 2 , 任鲁川 3, *
大地测量与地球动力学 | 地震地质 2025,45(7): 681-687
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大地测量与地球动力学 |地震地质 2025 , 45 (7) : 681 -687
基于广义极值理论的地震海啸危险性估计方法——以中国东南沿海为例
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刘哲1, 2 , 任鲁川3, *
作者信息
  • 1 河北红山巨厚沉积与地震灾害国家野外科学观测研究站, 河北省邢台市泉北西大街1540号, 054000
  • 2 河北省地震局唐山地震监测中心站, 河北省唐山市国防道1号, 063000
  • 3 防灾科技学院, 河北省三河市学院街465号, 065201
通讯作者:

任鲁川，教授，主要从事地震灾害预测、海洋灾害预测和灾害风险分析研究，E-mail：

REN Luchuan, professor, majors in earthquake disaster prediction, marine disaster prediction, and disaster risk analysis, E-mail:

作者简介:

刘哲，工程师，主要从事地震灾害预测和灾害风险分析研究，E-mail：

Estimation Method of Seismic Tsunami Hazard Based on the Generalized Extreme Value Theory: A Case Study of Southeast Coast of China
Zhe LIU1, 2 , Luchuan REN3, *
Affiliations
  • 1 Hebei Hongshan National Observatory on Thick Sediments and Seismic Hazards, 1540 West-Quanbei Street, Xingtai 054000, China
  • 2 Tangshan Earthquake Monitor Center of Hebei Earthquake Agency, 1 Guofang Road, Tangshan 063000, China
  • 3 Institute of Disaster Prevention, 465 Xueyuan Street, Sanhe 065201, China

    • LIU Zhe, engineer, majors in earthquake disaster prediction and disaster risk analysis, E-mail:

出版时间: 2025-07-15 doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
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摘要
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探讨基于广义极值理论的地震海啸危险性估计方法，给出构建地震活动性模型的两个案例：基于广义极值分布构建琉球海沟俯冲带地震活动性模型和基于广义帕累托分布构建马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震活动性模型。选取中国东南沿海地区6个近岸特定场点，采用广义极值理论构建以马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带作为潜源区的强震活动性模型，通过地震海啸数值模拟，得到马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带对特定场点未来时间段的地震海啸危险性估计结果，并将其与耦合不确定性效应的地震海啸危险性估计结果进行对比。结果表明，确定性估计结果与耦合不确定性效应的结果排序一致，前者数值高于后者，但仍具有参考价值。

地震海啸危险性估计  /  广义极值理论  /  中国东南沿海  /  地震活动性模型

We explore estimation methods of seismic tsunami hazard based on the generalized extreme value theory, provide two case studies for constructing seismic activity models: one based on the generalized extreme value distribution to build a seismic activity model for Ryukyu trench subduction zone, and the other based on the generalized Pareto distribution to build a seismic activity model for Manila trench subduction zone. Six specific sites along the southeast coast of China are selected, and strong seismic activity models are constructed using generalized extreme value theory, considering the Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones as potential source areas. Through numerical simulation of seismic tsunamis, the estimation result of seismic tsunami hazard for these specific sites of Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones in a future time period is obtained. These results are then compared with estimation results that consider the uncertainty effects. The findings indicate that the ranking of deterministic estimation results is consistent with that of coupled uncertainty effects, with the former having higher values than the latter, but still having reference value.

seismic tsunami hazard estimation  /  generalized extreme value theory  /  southeast coast of China  /  seismic activity model
刘哲, 任鲁川. 基于广义极值理论的地震海啸危险性估计方法——以中国东南沿海为例. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2025 , 45 (7) : 681 -687 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
Zhe LIU, Luchuan REN. Estimation Method of Seismic Tsunami Hazard Based on the Generalized Extreme Value Theory: A Case Study of Southeast Coast of China[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2025 , 45 (7) : 681 -687 . DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
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潜在地震海啸源是一类特殊的潜在震源，其特殊性表现为震中位于大洋区域或深海区域，且该区内发生的地震能触发海啸。因此，在对潜在地震海啸源区进行强震活动分析时，除利用基于G-R关系[1]的地震活动性模型外，还应寻求更适用于描述大震级区段的地震活动性模型。极值理论[2-4]是概率统计学科的一个独特分支，其中广义极值理论可以较好地描述尾部特征。许多学者[5-9]利用广义极值模型描述潜在震源区的强震活动性特征，并通过估算的发震次数与实际发震次数比较、最大震级分布特征分析及与构建的G-R模型预测结果对比等多方面，阐述广义极值理论在潜在震源区的适用性，并给出潜在震源区的震级重现水平和估计震级上限的方法和步骤。广义极值理论是利用形状参数ξ与0的关系，将3种极值模型归类为一个广义的极值模型，能有效提高潜在震源区地震活动性模型构建时极值模型选择的便捷性。由于潜在地震海啸源区是一类特殊的潜在震源区，张锟等[10]和田建伟等[11]将广义极值理论应用于潜在地震海啸源区，并据此得到强震活动性模型参数和震级上限的估计值。
概率性地震海啸危险性估计方法分为确定性和耦合不确定性效应两类。任鲁川等[12]给出耦合潜源参数不确定性效应的地震海啸危险性估计方法；刘哲等[13]给出基于广义极值理论耦合潜源参数不确定性效应的中国东南沿海地区特定场点的地震海啸危险性估计结果。上述研究结果表明，耦合不确定效应的地震海啸危险性估计方法更接近于特定场点实际遭受地震海啸袭击的情况，但此类方法依赖于潜在地震海啸源区地质、地震等背景资料的完备性。
基于广义极值理论的确定性地震海啸危险性估计方法对研究区背景资料的依赖性较弱，普适性更强。目前，鲜有学者将两类方法应用于同一研究区进行对比。鉴于此，本文基于广义极值理论，采用确定性地震海啸危险性估计方法，估算特定场点未来时期的地震海啸危险性，并将其与刘哲等[13]耦合潜源参数不确定性效应的估计结果进行对比。此类分析结果可为背景资料欠缺的潜在地震海啸源区开展确定性地震海啸危险性估计工作提供方法参考，同时也可为确定性地震海啸危险性估计结果的可信性研究提供基础资料。
1 地震海啸危险性估计原理与方法
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目前有两类较为完善的地震海啸危险性分析方法：确定性方法和概率分析方法[14]。地震海啸危险性估计的具体计算公式见文献[12, 15]，本文不再赘述。其中，确定性方法是在给定潜在地震海啸源震级和其他潜在地震海啸源参数的基础上，通过数值模拟计算出场点可能遭遇的海啸最大波高或爬高，用以分析海啸危险性。本文给出一种基于广义极值理论的确定性地震海啸危险性概率分析方法。
基于广义极值理论的确定性地震海啸危险性估计方法中，潜源区r中震级为m的地震海啸发生率$n_l(r, m)=1-\exp \left\{-\left[1+\xi\left(\frac{m-\mu}{\sigma}\right)\right]^{-1 / \xi}\right\}, $，其中，$(\mu, \xi, \sigma)$为广义极值模型的3个参数(位置、形状、尺度)。
基于广义极值理论的耦合潜源参数不确定性效应的地震海啸危险性估计方法中，潜源区r中震级为m的地震海啸发生率$n_l(r, m)=1-\frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi} \sigma} \int_{-\infty}^m \mathrm{e}^{\frac{(x-m)^2}{2 \sigma^2}} \mathrm{~d} x$, 其中，σ为广义极值理论估算震级重现水平的方差。
2 构建潜在地震海啸源区的强震活动性模型
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2.1 特定场点选取
为便于对比研究，参考文献[12]中特定场点的选取，以其邻近的城市命名特定场点，特定场点水深及地理位置见表 1。
2.2 潜在地震海啸源界定
相关研究表明[16-17]，马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带发生大震时，可能会对中国东南沿海地区及附近岛屿造成海啸袭击。中国台湾面向太平洋，位于环太平洋地震带上，邻近马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带，历史上多次遭受海啸侵袭。
Liu等[1]研究认为，由于台湾岛、吕宋岛和苏禄海西北岛屿(菲律宾巴拉望)之间浅山脊的屏蔽作用，琉球海沟俯冲带和北苏拉威西俯冲带产生的海啸不会威胁南中国海区域。琉球海沟俯冲带产生的海啸，大部分能量传至太平洋；北苏拉威西俯冲带产生的海啸，绝大部分能量被限于苏拉威西海区域；只有马尼拉海沟俯冲带产生的海啸会对中国南海周边地区构成威胁。
温燕林等[18]假设琉球海沟俯冲带发生罕遇的9级地震，中国东海沿海地区仍有遭受破坏性海啸袭击的可能性，而台湾海峡及广东沿海因台湾岛的阻挡作用，遭受海啸袭击的可能性会降低。从地震空间分布特征看，MW≥6.0地震沿马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带呈明显的带状分布(图 1)。
综上所述，特定场点对应的潜在地震海啸源区选取马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带。马尼拉海沟俯冲带范围取12°~22°N、118°~122°E，琉球海沟俯冲带范围取21°~33°N、120°~134°E。
2.3 潜在地震海啸源区强震活动性模型估计
广义极值模型和广义帕累托模型的构建理论详见文献[3]，本文不再赘述。
2.3.1 琉球海沟俯冲带潜源区强震活动性模型估计
琉球海沟俯冲带潜在地震海啸源区的历史地震数据来自美国地质调查局(USGS)提供的地震目录，范围为21°~33°N、120°~134°E。图 2、3分别为1900—2023年MW≥5.0地震和1900—2023年MW≥6.0地震的M-T图。
参照1900—2023年地震目录，依据强震存在准平静期和活跃期，对M-T图进行分析。琉球海沟俯冲带的地震采样间隔取10 a，并将1910年作为初始时间，然后选取每个时间间隔内的最大震级，用其作为随机样本拟合广义极值分布。考虑到不同的初始时间可能会对所选震级序列产生影响，再选择1908和1911年作为初始时间，提取各个时间窗内的最大震级序列，与初始时间为1910年的最大震级序列样本进行对比，发现样本数据存在一定变动(表 2)。
依据广义极值分布的密度函数，求其对数似然函数，进而得到参数μ、ξ、σ的最大对数似然估计$(\hat{\boldsymbol{\mu}}, \hat{\boldsymbol{\xi}}, \hat{\boldsymbol{\sigma}})$(表 3)以及相应估计的方差-协方差矩阵估计值。可以看出，广义极值模型中形状参数ξ的估计值均小于0，说明不同起始时间拟合所得的广义极值分布类型均为Weibull分布，具有震级上限值。
对比表 2、3中各时间窗内的最大震级数据，发现1910年为起始时间的震级数据最为稳定，即与其他起始时间的震级数据最接近。因此，本文选取起始时间为1910年，对估计结果进行拟合诊断(图 4)。可以发现，图 4结果无法否定选用广义极值模型进行拟合的合理性。
据此，琉球海沟俯冲带潜在地震海啸源区的广义极值强震活动性模型可表示为：
2.3.2 马尼拉海沟俯冲带潜源区强震活动性模型估计
马尼拉海沟俯冲带潜在地震海啸源区的历史地震数据同样取自USGS提供的1900—2023年地震目录。由于广义帕累托模型的各最大震级理论上是相互独立的，据此可以依据主震与余震的空间、时间尺度剔除余震，以尽可能地保证地震记录的独立性[19]。按照线性的超出量分布函数和稳定的参数估计的要求选取阈值u。根据平均超出量与阈值的关系(图 5)以及参数估计与阈值的关系(图 6)，最终选取阈值为5.1。
在确定阈值后，对震级样本进行超出量选取，采用极大似然估计法对广义帕累托模型的3个参数进行估计，同时得到拟合诊断图(图 7)。可以看出，图 7结果无法否定选用广义帕累托模型进行拟合的合理性。
据此，马尼拉海沟俯冲带潜在地震海啸源区的广义帕累托强震活动性模型可表示为：
3 地震海啸危险性估计
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3.1 确定潜在地震海啸源参数
在得到潜在地震海啸源区的强震活动性模型后，需要确定其余潜在地震海啸源参数。
Wang等[20]在马尼拉海沟和琉球海沟分别假设6个和5个断层面，每个断层平面宽20 km，深10 km，位错(滑移)为3 m，滑移角为90°。研究结果表明，琉球海沟的危险性比马尼拉海沟小，但与其他区域相比，琉球海沟发生强震的可能性仍然较高。
潜在地震海啸源参数中的震中位置选取参考地震空区的研究结果或历史大震位置。马尼拉海沟俯冲带的震中位置取18.7°N、119.8°E，位于第2个断层面；琉球海沟俯冲带的震中位置取23.4°N、124.1°E，位于第3个断层面。从USGS地震目录检索震源深度数据(马尼拉海沟俯冲带、琉球海沟俯冲带1900—2010年MW≥6.0地震)。由震源深度数据可知，马尼拉海沟俯冲带震源深度分布在十几km至四十几km之间，15 km深度地震最为多发；琉球海沟俯冲带震源深度分布在十几km至近四十km之间，25 km深度地震最为多发。据此，马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带潜在地震海啸源震源深度参数分别取15 km和25 km。
潜在地震海啸源参数中的震级取值参考地震活动性模型案例中的强震活动性估计模型。断层走向、倾角沿用Wang等[20]提供的数据，根据震中所在的断层面，马尼拉海沟俯冲带断层走向取34°，倾角取20°；琉球海沟俯冲带断层走向取247°，倾角取16°。
综上，两个俯冲带潜在地震海啸源参数取值见表 4。
3.2 地震海啸数值模拟
采用COMCOT海啸数值模式完成地震海啸数值模拟。选取两层网格嵌套，第1层网格范围为10°~40°N、105°~135°E，包围各个特定场点的第2层网格范围详见表 5。水深地形数据取自USGS的ETOPO1数据(图 8)。第1层网格选用球坐标系线性控制方程，网格精度为3′，忽略底摩擦效应；第2层网格选用球坐标系非线性控制方程，网格精度为1′，考虑底摩擦效应，曼宁系数取0.013。模拟计算时间步长为5″，模拟时间总长6 h。
3.3 特定场点的地震海啸危险性分析
3.3.1 提取特定场点的最大海啸波高
从模拟计算结果提取各个特定场点的最大海啸波高数据。中国大陆东南沿海近岸区及台湾岛近岸区6个特定场点的最大海啸波高数据见表 6、7(单位m)。
3.3.2 特定场点的地震海啸危险性分析
国际上常用的海啸分级标准见表 8。当等级为1级时，就会有一定的经济损失；2级时就会出现人员伤亡；3级时就会严重受灾；4级以上可能造成毁灭性灾害。为便于讨论，选取临界海啸波高为0.4 m。
对照各近岸场点的最大海啸波高数据，选取临界震级，计算各个特定场点的海啸年均发生率(表 9、10)。
将上述各个特定场点相对于两个俯冲带潜源区的地震海啸年均发生率累加，得到各个特定场点的地震海啸年均总发生率，进而估计未来一定时段特定场点的地震海啸危险性(表 11)。
4 结语
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1) 由确定性地震海啸危险性估计结果可知，对于同一潜在地震海啸源，各个场点的最大海啸波高差别明显。马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震震级取MW8.5，按最大海啸波高由大到小排序，最大海啸波高出现在高雄近海的场点6，为2.81 m，香港近海的场点4为2.04 m，厦门近海的场点3为0.80 m，海口近海的场点5为0.68 m，宁德近海的场点2为0.13 m，舟山近海场点1的海啸波高可忽略。琉球海沟俯冲带地震震级取MW8.5，按最大海啸波高由大到小排序，最大海啸波高出现在舟山近海的场点1，为1.02 m，高雄近海的场点6为0.78 m，宁德近海的场点2为0.68 m，厦门近海的场点3为0.67 m，香港近海的场点4为0.58 m，海口近海的场点5为0.45 m。
2) 对比确定性地震海啸危险性估计结果和耦合潜源参数不确定性效应的估计结果[13]发现，两类地震海啸危险性估计结果排序一致。高雄近海场点6的海啸危险性最大，其次是海口近海的场点5，再次是香港近海的场点4，与上述3个场点相比，厦门近海场点3、舟山近海场点1、宁德近海场点2的海啸危险性较小。两类地震海啸危险性估计结果在数值上有所差别，确定性结果要高于耦合不确定性效应的估计结果。据此认为，对于背景资料欠缺的潜在地震海啸源区，可以采用确定性地震海啸危险性估计结果，且其特定场点的危险性排序可信。
综上所述，特定场点的地震海啸危险性来自于马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带两个潜源区，是二者共同作用的结果。高雄近海、海口近海和香港近海场点具有高危险性，原因在于其不仅受到马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震海啸的强烈威胁，也会受到琉球海沟俯冲带地震海啸的较强影响。舟山近海场点的地震海啸危险性主要来自于琉球海沟俯冲带的地震海啸。厦门近海场点的海啸危险性较小，可能是因为：1)来自于马尼拉海沟俯冲带的地震海啸波在经过宽阔的南中国海北部陆架浅水区域时，由于海底摩擦作用，能量被大幅消减；2)来自于琉球海沟俯冲带的地震海啸波在传播时受到台湾岛的屏蔽作用，不易传播至厦门近海区域。
基金
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  • 国家自然科学基金(41276020)
  • 河北省地震科技星火计划(DZ2021110800001)
  • 河北省地震科技星火计划(DZ2024112600019)
文献
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2025年第45卷第7期
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doi: 10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
  • 接收时间：2024-07-12
  • 首发时间：2026-10-29
  • 出版时间：2025-07-15
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  • 收稿日期：2024-07-12
基金
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41276020)
国家自然科学基金(41276020)
The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of Hebei Province(DZ2021110800001)
河北省地震科技星火计划(DZ2021110800001)
The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of Hebei Province(DZ2024112600019)
河北省地震科技星火计划(DZ2024112600019)
作者信息
    1 河北红山巨厚沉积与地震灾害国家野外科学观测研究站, 河北省邢台市泉北西大街1540号, 054000
    2 河北省地震局唐山地震监测中心站, 河北省唐山市国防道1号, 063000
    3 防灾科技学院, 河北省三河市学院街465号, 065201

通讯作者:

任鲁川，教授，主要从事地震灾害预测、海洋灾害预测和灾害风险分析研究，E-mail：

REN Luchuan, professor, majors in earthquake disaster prediction, marine disaster prediction, and disaster risk analysis, E-mail:

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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/ddcl/CN/10.14075/j.jgg.2024.07.339
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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